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Monthly archives: June 2006

 

“Halls of Relief”— 2006, Pt VI: Everybody Has To Deviate From the Norm
2006-06-23 20:02
by Mike Carminati

Previous entries:

The 1870s, '80s, and '90s

The 1900s and '10s

The 1920s, '30s, and '40s

The 1950s

The 1960s

The 1970s

The 1980s

The 1990s and 2000s

20003 Notes: Part I & II

Final Analysis: I, II, III, and IV.

Base Relief I, II, and III

2006 Edition: Part I, II, III, IV, and V

In what I hope is the last post to this series prior to my presenting the results at SABR36 on Thursday, I wanted to take a look at the future of relief pitching. I have been anticipating some change to the way that closers are employed since I started the series a few years ago. Why not? Every dozen or so years throughout baseball history baseball has fundamentally changed its approach to the reliever role.

In the 1870s, Harry Wright, without the ability to make substitutions, invented relieving by rotating himself from center field to the mound. In the 1890s, starting pitchers like Cy Young and Kid Nichols began to be used to also close out games. Around 1903, John McGraw invented the relief role. In the 1920s, Firpo Marberry became the first quality pitcher used mostly in relief. In the Forties, the Yankees brought relievers into the limelight with two stars, Johnny Murphy and Joe Page. In the Fifties, pure relievers started to take hold. In the Sixties, managers pushed the boundaries of what relievers were capable of doing on almost a yearly basis. In 1979, Bruce Sutter is used almost exclusively in save situations establishing a new role for relievers. In 1988, Dennis Eckersley is used almost exclusively in one-inning save situations and the rest of the A's bullpen is used to pick up the slack, establishing the current mold for relief pitching.

So it's been twenty years, but despite all the talk that using your best reliever in save situations exclusively is a waste of talent, baseball is still in love with the Eck paradigm. Closers are saving a higher percentage of their teams games than ever before and are collecting fewer innings per appearance than ever.

I've been anticipating a shift whenever I see the slightest harbinger of change, be it the 2003 Red Sox so-called "bullpen by committee" or the existence of Brooks Kieschnick, I start expecting the sky to fall. Then it occurred to me that I might be looking in the wrong place.

Could it be that the closer role has reached some level of maturity? Maybe Bill James' prediction that closers will someday collect eighty saves a year will never come true. Could it be that there is a major paradigm shift afoot that is going unnoticed?

Well, I took a look at the percentage of team saves that the average closer is collecting. The figures are going up on almost a yearly basis. However, the variation across teams has been jumping especially the last couple of years.

YrAvg Tm Sv % Variance
196949.56% 0.024
197053.00% 0.014
197151.36% 0.026
197249.34% 0.028
197347.33% 0.023
197458.60% 0.038
197549.40% 0.014
197651.97% 0.030
197752.93% 0.023
197857.38% 0.016
197953.68% 0.030
198053.98% 0.022
198153.16% 0.027
198252.93% 0.021
198352.23% 0.032
198456.63% 0.032
198557.68% 0.031
198656.64% 0.022
198751.86% 0.030
198863.31% 0.020
198966.62% 0.016
199061.57% 0.031
199161.22% 0.042
199264.39% 0.030
199370.46% 0.033
199463.69% 0.033
199572.96% 0.030
199672.51% 0.033
199769.95% 0.035
199871.60% 0.031
199973.23% 0.037
200072.04% 0.032
200173.58% 0.030
200279.78% 0.031
200368.38% 0.040
200473.39% 0.035
200575.52% 0.046

One of the biggest jumps was 2003 when Bill James tried to put into practice his theories of relief pitching that got mislabeled bullpen by committee. That attempt failed, but perhaps the theories did take hold. Maybe teams are using their closers in more appropriate situations rather than just in the color-by-numbers save situations.

I took a look at the men who were second in saves on their teams. Below is the annual average of team saves amassed by the man second saves on his team (for teams with co-leaders in saves, one of the co-leaders was considered the second-place save guy). Note that the numbers are declining steadily throughout the save era:

YrTm Sv% Std Dev
196921.21% 0.084
197019.82% 0.083
197121.34% 0.099
197222.10% 0.080
197323.44% 0.086
197419.15% 0.083
197525.71% 0.081
197624.16% 0.081
197721.54% 0.076
197821.52% 0.088
197922.62% 0.090
198021.40% 0.078
198122.98% 0.092
198221.46% 0.094
198322.31% 0.086
198419.94% 0.086
198520.27% 0.102
198620.82% 0.107
198722.45% 0.095
198817.64% 0.080
198919.08% 0.105
199018.15% 0.086
199118.46% 0.099
199218.30% 0.105
199313.84% 0.098
199417.25% 0.102
199512.52% 0.092
199612.46% 0.080
199714.66% 0.108
199814.23% 0.100
199914.46% 0.108
200014.52% 0.116
200113.06% 0.098
20029.89% 0.096
200316.10% 0.111
200414.47% 0.121
200512.20% 0.110

Note also that the n deviation of the values is at the same time increasing steadily with the most growth in the 2000s. What this tells me is that managers are using their closers more efficiently to collect saves, but they are tinkering with the other situations. Some use their entire bullpen, some use their closer, some use a secondary reliever regularly.

Couple this with the fact that the biggest opportunity for bullpen improvement is after the sixth and seventh innings. The percentage of leads retained after seven and especially six innings are the only figures that have been declining in the post-Eck era.

So what's in the cards for the relieving in the foreseeable future? It looks like the closer will be tweaked but will remain fundamentally unchanged. I expect the next shift to come in the rest of the bullpen.

“Halls of Relief”— 2006, Pt V: And the Winners Are…
2006-06-21 09:25
by Mike Carminati

Previous entries:

The 1870s, '80s, and '90s

The 1900s and '10s

The 1920s, '30s, and '40s

The 1950s

The 1960s

The 1970s

The 1980s

The 1990s and 2000s

20003 Notes: Part I & II

Final Analysis: I, II, III, and IV.

Base Relief I, II, and III

2006 Edition: Part I, II, III, IV, and V

In the final update to this gargantuan series, I would like to take a look at relief pitching and the Hall of Fame.

First, I should mention that whereas the press always say that there are just four relievers in the Hall (Wilhelm, Fingers, Eckersley, and now Sutter), in actuality for most of baseball history (i.e., through the Fifties), teams cannibalized their starters as relievers. All of the Hall of Fame pitchers were used in relief to some extent and many were used quite extensively, including Lefty Grove, Walter Johnson, Pete Alexander, Three-Finger Brown, Ed Walsh, Kid Nichols, Christy Mathewson, and Cy Young. Also, two of the four "relief pitcher" Hall of Famers worked as a starter for a large portion of their careers (i.e., Wilhelm and Eck). So to say that there are four relief pitchers in the Hall is inaccurate as best.

I ran the numbers for total Relief Wins (RWins) and Starter Wins (SWins) for every Hall of Fame pitcher through Sutter. I combined the two and called the results Pitching Wins (PWins) Below are the results. Listed are all of the pitchers who a) went into the Hall as a player (not an executive or manager) and b) primarily were pitchers throughout their careers. I will list the Hall-of-Famers who do not meet these criteria later—because I like listing stuff—but will not use them in the analysis.

The pitchers are sorted by PWins in descending order, and the Pitching Runs (PR), Pitching Win Shares, and various other pitching stats are listed. At the bottom are the averages for each stat along with the standard deviation for each and the min and max values one standard deviation above and below the average:

NamePWinsSWinsRwinsPitch WSPRSVIPRAGFGWL
Cy Young 94.88 91.243.65 625.0 798.89 17 7,354.7 9184906511316
Walter Johnson 82.55 73.778.78 529.8 669.25 34 5,914.7 136129802417279
Lefty Grove 80.55 70.0510.49 391.7 631.52 55 3,940.7 159123616300141
Kid Nichols 75.57 70.664.91 467.6 618.21 17 5,056.3 5956620361208
Pete Alexander 62.77 58.084.69 468.5 508.04 32 5,190.0 9780696373208
Hoyt Wilhelm 53.99 7.1446.85 255.3 298.87 227 2,254.3 10186511070143122
John Clarkson 52.87 52.500.37 384.4 443.88 5 4,536.3 1312531328178
Christy Mathewson 49.77 45.504.27 412.7 398.26 28 4,780.7 8474635373188
Tom Seaver 49.34 49.220.12 389.3 414.24 1 4,782.7 96656311205
Amos Rusie 47.52 45.961.56 284.9 390.67 5 3,769.7 3535462245174
Carl Hubbell 45.86 40.255.60 303.4 364.89 33 3,590.3 10482535253154
Tim Keefe 44.86 44.92-0.06 392.7 376.75 2 5,047.7 67600342225
Warren Spahn 42.80 41.940.86 402.6 356.93 29 5,243.7 8568750363245
Bob Gibson 39.86 39.710.15 313.3 331.89 6 3,884.3 4621528251174
Whitey Ford 39.53 38.031.50 255.7 330.22 10 3,170.3 6035498236106
Jim Palmer 39.05 39.000.05 310.4 326.34 4 3,948.0 3715558268152
Bob Feller 38.61 36.362.25 291.6 315.87 21 3,827.0 8652570266162
Gaylord Perry 37.62 36.990.63 368.5 307.72 11 5,350.3 8733777314265
Ted Lyons 37.30 36.161.14 305.1 304.89 23 4,161.0 11092594260230
Mordecai Brown 36.80 29.986.82 292.5 283.84 49 3,172.3 149138481239130
Ed Walsh 36.57 29.646.93 259.4 281.60 34 2,964.3 115102430195126
Hal Newhouser 36.50 32.733.77 260.6 294.95 26 2,993.0 11479488207150
Phil Niekro 35.44 32.363.07 375.2 282.80 29 5,404.3 14883864318274
Red Faber 33.86 29.544.32 288.9 272.64 28 4,086.7 186134669254213
Charley Radbourn 33.40 32.600.80 354.2 279.29 2 4,535.3 2524528309195
Dennis Eckersley 33.33 12.1021.23 298.3 199.71 390 3,285.7 7105771071197171
Stan Coveleski 32.34 30.611.73 242.7 262.98 21 3,082.0 6552450215142
Dazzy Vance 32.30 31.820.48 240.8 268.78 11 2,966.7 9553442197140
Eddie Plank 31.99 29.252.74 354.7 261.08 23 4,495.7 9474623326194
Steve Carlton 31.94 32.91-0.97 367.1 271.01 2 5,217.3 3213741329244
Lefty Gomez 30.07 28.921.15 185.3 247.08 9 2,503.0 4831368189102
Robin Roberts 29.77 29.010.76 332.9 245.43 25 4,688.7 6749676286245
Juan Marichal 29.64 29.500.14 260.4 248.26 2 3,507.3 1411471243142
Eppa Rixey 29.24 27.751.49 310.5 243.04 14 4,494.7 14097692266251
Sandy Koufax 28.76 28.280.48 193.4 240.17 9 2,324.3 834439716587
Don Drysdale 28.26 27.610.66 250.9 238.34 6 3,432.0 5334518209166
Fergie Jenkins 28.05 27.260.79 319.1 233.87 7 4,500.7 7037664284226
Rube Waddell 27.31 26.930.38 235.2 242.11 5 2,961.3 6753407193143
Nolan Ryan 27.23 27.050.18 332.2 227.27 3 5,386.0 3413807324292
Dizzy Dean 24.85 21.043.81 181.2 195.47 30 1,967.3 877631715083
Rollie Fingers 24.80 0.2824.52 187.2 112.91 341 1,701.3 907709944114118
Addie Joss 24.80 23.711.09 190.7 206.88 5 2,327.0 262228616097
Bob Lemon 24.75 23.241.51 211.8 203.39 22 2,850.0 11073460207128
Joe McGinnity 24.50 22.861.63 267.9 203.63 24 3,441.3 8473465246142
Vic Willis 24.04 23.031.01 292.6 200.53 11 3,996.0 4241513249205
Mickey Welch 22.82 22.94-0.12 330.1 191.71 4 4,802.0 1615565307210
Jim Bunning 22.71 22.79-0.08 256.4 191.93 16 3,760.3 7239591224184
Bruce Sutter 22.68 0.0022.68 167.6 109.34 300 1,042.3 6615126616871
Red Ruffing 22.31 22.54-0.23 289.8 185.42 16 4,344.0 8871624273225
Waite Hoyt 22.10 17.564.54 263.1 174.57 52 3,762.3 251175674237182
Don Sutton 18.39 18.370.02 318.7 154.26 5 5,282.3 1812774324256
Pud Galvin 17.18 17.26-0.08 390.1 144.42 2 6,003.3 1617705364310
Burleigh Grimes 15.05 13.661.39 275.5 114.04 18 4,180.0 11994616270212
Early Wynn 13.95 13.380.57 293.5 118.31 15 4,564.0 7966691300244
Chief Bender 13.29 11.062.23 219.3 101.17 34 3,017.0 125109459212127
Jesse Haines 11.69 10.850.84 206.5 102.87 10 3,208.7 16795555210158
Jack Chesbro 11.05 10.500.56 208.1 86.76 5 2,896.7 6052392198132
Herb Pennock 9.22 10.85-1.62 236.7 80.38 32 3,571.7 197133617240162
Catfish Hunter 6.72 6.79-0.08 200.7 55.00 1 3,449.3 246500224166
Rube Marquard 4.69 4.160.53 206.6 28.73 19 3,306.7 13383536201177
Avg 33.83 30.173.66 301.7 271.22 36.95 3,921.3 131.8897.10602.27260.63182.57
Std Dev 17.85 17.667.61 88.1 147.05 76.86 1,148.3 195.28144.17163.0075.7657.38
Min 15.98 12.51-3.95 213.6 124.18 -39.91 2,773.0 -63.40-47.07439.27184.87125.18
Max 51.68 47.8311.27389.8 418.27 113.815,069.6 327.17241.27765.26336.40239.95

So the average Hall of Fame PWin total, whether from starting or relieving, is 33.83. 45 of the 60 Hall of Fame pitchers or 75% are within one standard deviation of the average (i.e., 15.98 to 51.68).

Next, we will take a look at all of the relief pitchers in baseball history that are within this range (more than 15.98 PWins). Since it's difficult to determine which pitchers are technically relievers, I will use a somewhat arbitrary cutoff —5 RWins—to cast a wide enough net to get all pitchers who have spent some portion of his career as a reliever.

Here are the pitchers that qualify, including nine current Hall-of-Famers:

Name PWins SWins Rwins PitchWS PR SV IP RAGFGWLERERAHOF?
Walter Johnson 82.55 73.778.78 529.8 669.25 34 5,914.7 1361298024172791424 2.17 Y
Lefty Grove 80.55 70.0510.49 391.7 631.52 55 3,940.7 1591236163001411339 3.06 Y
Hoyt Wilhelm 53.99 7.1446.85 255.3 298.87 227 2,254.3 10186511070143122632 2.52 Y
Carl Hubbell 45.86 40.255.60 303.4 364.89 33 3,590.3 104825352531541188 2.98 Y
Mariano Rivera 42.52 -0.7343.26 162.4 205.78 379 806.7 6475416575435209 2.33
Rich Gossage 39.46 -2.4941.95 222.4 156.73 310 1,809.3 9656811002124107605 3.01
John Smoltz 37.08 26.8510.24 252.1 272.56 154 2,929.3 2412046351771281060 3.26
Mordecai Brown 36.80 29.986.82 292.5 283.84 49 3,172.3 149138481239130725 2.06 Y
Ed Walsh 36.57 29.646.93 259.4 281.60 34 2,964.3 115102430195126598 1.82 Y
Dennis Eckersley 33.33 12.1021.23 298.3 199.71 390 3,285.7 71057710711971711278 3.50 Y
Dan Quisenberry 30.32 0.0030.32 156.5 145.91 244 1,043.3 6745536745646320 2.76
John Franco 29.66 0.0029.66 183.8 144.95 424 1,245.7 111977411199087400 2.89
Billy Wagner 28.51 0.0028.51 123.8 132.86 284 630.3 5844875843432168 2.40
Tom Henke 28.28 0.0028.28 139.0 130.21 311 789.7 6425486424142234 2.67
Roberto Hernandez 27.34 -0.5627.90 136.2 128.68 324 961.3 8896288926465356 3.33
Lee Smith 27.29 0.4226.86 198.2 131.23 4781,289.3 1016802102271924343.03
Trevor Hoffman 26.50 0.0026.50 139.5 124.48 436 822.3 7566327564953252 2.76
Jack Quinn 26.01 20.525.49 281.7 198.75 57 3,920.3 3122167562472181433 3.29
John Wetteland 25.43 -0.7526.18 126.3 115.31 330 765.0 6015236184845249 2.93
Eddie Rommel 25.09 19.125.98 205.8 208.03 29 2,556.3 2511825001711191006 3.54
Sparky Lyle 24.99 0.0024.99 160.9 119.28 238 1,390.3 8996348999976445 2.88
Rollie Fingers 24.80 0.2824.52 187.2 112.91 341 1,701.3 907709944114118549 2.90 Y
Kent Tekulve 24.64 0.0024.64 160.4 138.50 184 1,436.3 105063810509490455 2.85
Doug Jones 24.44 -0.4524.89 144.4 121.16 303 1,128.3 8426408466979414 3.30
Armando Benitez 23.14 0.0023.14 115.4 111.01 263 684.0 6584686583436222 2.92
Keith Foulke 22.94 -2.3525.28 105.7 108.45 190 706.0 5363815443833253 3.23
Bruce Sutter 22.68 0.0022.68 167.6 109.34 300 1,042.3 6615126616871328 2.83 Y
John Hiller 22.51 2.1420.38 143.8 124.62 125 1,242.0 5023635458776391 2.83
Jeff Montgomery 22.46 -0.1522.61 134.0 105.98 304 868.7 6995497004652316 3.27
Ellis Kinder 21.99 6.0415.95 144.9 130.48 102 1,479.7 36225548410271564 3.43
Robb Nen 21.65 -0.8522.50 119.9 94.33 314 715.0 6395486434542237 2.98
Bob Stanley 21.28 2.6418.65 150.1 113.93 132 1,707.0 55237663711597690 3.64
Troy Percival 21.19 0.0021.19 111.0 105.82 324 611.7 6054896053041211 3.10
Jesse Orosco 19.97 -0.0119.98 142.8 112.97 144 1,295.0 124850112528780455 3.16
Mike Timlin 19.86 0.4419.41 111.2 115.71 130 1,035.7 8894008936362403 3.50
Mike Jackson 19.80 0.0319.77 124.2 112.76 142 1,188.3 99842210056267451 3.42
Firpo Marberry 19.47 11.697.78 173.0 137.48 101 2,067.3 36427155114888834 3.63
Ron Perranoski 19.43 0.1519.28 127.5 87.06 179 1,174.7 7364587377974364 2.79
Mike Marshall 19.32 -1.1520.47 145.1 86.51 188 1,386.7 69954972397112484 3.14
Mark Eichhorn 18.99 -0.4419.44 82.8 120.45 32 885.7 5562265634843295 3.00
Derek Lowe 18.33 5.1813.15 108.8 108.93 85 1,312.0 2761554318474559 3.83
Stu Miller 18.24 2.5415.70 152.3 93.35 154 1,694.0 611405704105103610 3.24
Tom Gordon 18.11 4.5213.59 161.7 119.12 116 1,977.3 547275750127115863 3.93
Tug McGraw 18.05 -1.6719.72 157.7 84.16 1801,514.7 78554182496925283.14
Bob Wickman 17.91 -0.7118.62 105.3 93.00 214 954.7 6934167215951384 3.62
Rick Aguilera 17.77 -0.3118.08 148.0 82.92 318 1,291.3 6435577328681512 3.57
Gene Garber 17.60 -0.2117.81 158.7 87.87 218 1,510.0 92260993196113560 3.34
Clay Carroll 17.05 -0.1517.20 124.8 89.75 143 1,353.3 7033737319673442 2.94
Bobby Shantz 17.01 10.076.94 156.6 134.65 48 1,935.7 36619253711999726 3.38
Wilbur Wood 17.00 9.337.67 190.1 117.44 57 2,684.0 354198651164156965 3.24
Jeff Reardon 16.78 0.0016.78 155.2 82.78 367 1,132.3 8806958807377397 3.16
Mike Henneman 16.38 0.0016.38 97.0 77.52 193 732.7 5614325615742261 3.21
Gary Lavelle 16.31 -0.1116.42 112.2 89.15 136 1,085.0 7423997458077353 2.93

Before you shake your head and waggle your finger at me for advocating the likes of Gary Lavelle for the Hall, I am not promoting all, or even most, of these men for the Hall, just pointing out which relievers fall within the sweep of the de facto Hall standards.

There are couple of things that do become clear, however. Three players are above the Hall average: Goose Gossage, Mariano Rivera, and John Smoltz. I am hoping that Gossage finally garners enough votes to get into the Hall next year. Rivera is not yet eligible but should be the strongest candidate of his era, meaning that even the writers couldn't screw his election up. Smoltz is a difficult case because he will probably fall short as both a starter and a reliever in the counting stats that usually get cited for Hall-worthiness, but I think this shows how he compares to a typical HOFer when you take into account his two careers. We'll have to see how well he is received by the writers after he retires.

Consider that there are eight starters that meet this criterion, and almost all have a good shot of getting into the Hall. Only one is eligible (Bert Blyleven (37.18 PWins)), and Blyeleven's candidacy is gaining momentum on the writers' ballot every year. Of the seven that are not yet eligible, Maddux (65.21), Johnson (61.33), Martinez (59.02), and Glavine (36.29) should be locks for the Hall. The rest are going to be hurt by the counting numbers but are solid picks (Kevin Brown (39.79), Mussina (35.92), and Schilling (34.48)).

It is also gratifying that a number of old timers show up in the table. I think the Vets, if they ever get their act together, or perhaps a special committee (though the one on the Negro Leagues might have put the kibosh on future committees) should take a second look at guys like Firpo Marberry, Ellis Kinder, John Hiller, Ron Perranoski, and Dan Quisenberry to name a few because of their importance to this ever-developing role.

Finally, here are the Hall of Famers, as promised, who did not meet the criteria I outlined above. Obviously, a few would have gotten in as a pitcher:

NamePWinsSWinsRwinsPitchWSPRSVIPRAGFGWLPOScategory
Al Spalding34.2533.560.69 50.7 285.1711 2,890.7 20334725365PPioneer/Executive
Clark Griffith30.6030.270.32 257.4 258.116 3,385.7 8178453237146PPioneer/Executive
Candy Cummings14.0314.020.01 23.2 117.780 2,149.7 1024214594PPioneer/Executive
John Ward13.2812.850.44 174.2 111.443 2,461.7 3132292164102SSPlayer
Babe Ruth8.478.170.30 102.1 69.044 1,221.3 15111639446OFPlayer
Satchel Paige5.812.333.48 42.8 42.1432 476.0 1531091792831PNegro Leaguer
Bobby Wallace4.814.620.19 29.9 41.361 402.0 99572422SSPlayer
George Sisler0.770.530.25 8.2 6.903 111.0 12824561BPlayer
Jimmie Foxx0.430.330.09 2.1 6.120 23.7 8810101BPlayer
Charlie Comiskey0.300.280.02 0.8 2.970 12.3 324011BPioneer/Executive
Buck Ewing0.200.23-0.03 2.5 0.890 47.0 55923CPlayer
Cap Anson0.180.000.18 0.7 -0.531 4.0 333011BPlayer
Sam Rice0.150.140.01 2.1 1.530 39.3 64911OFPlayer
Roger Bresnahan0.100.080.03 3.5 1.570 50.3 33941CPlayer
Ty Cobb0.080.000.08 0.4 -0.361 5.0 32300OFPlayer
Honus Wagner0.080.000.08 0.7 2.880 8.3 22200SSPlayer
George Kelly0.040.000.04 0.8 1.500 5.0 111101BPlayer
Wade Boggs0.030.000.03 0.1 0.230 2.3 222003BPlayer
Harry Hooper0.020.000.02 0.3 0.650 2.0 10100OFPlayer
George Wright0.010.000.01 0.1 0.310 5.0 31301SSPioneer/Executive
Ted Williams0.000.000.00 0.1 0.000 2.0 11100OFPlayer
Stan Musial0.000.000.00 - 0.000 - 10100OFPlayer
Tris Speaker-0.020.00-0.02 - -0.720 1.0 11100OFPlayer
King Kelly-0.040.00-0.04 1.9 -1.550 45.7 1291222OFPlayer
Jake Beckley-0.18-0.180.00 - -1.540 4.0 001011BPlayer
Jim O'Rourke-0.480.00-0.48 1.4 -2.092 19.7 64601OFPlayer
Harry Wright-0.62-0.29-0.33 -3.078 99.3 27 3444OFPioneer/Executive
Dan Brouthers-0.88-0.65-0.22 - -13.410 23.0 214021BPlayer
Tommy Lasorda-1.10-0.94-0.16 -13.931 58.3 2092604PManager
George Davis-1.140.00-1.14 - -5.311 4.0 33301SSPlayer
Tommy McCarthy-1.38-1.31-0.07 1.2 -13.420 69.3 771307OFPlayer
Jesse Burkett-2.88-2.74-0.14 0.4 -28.030 123.0 11823311OFPlayer
“Halls of Relief”— 2006, Pt IV: Baseball's Best Bullpens
2006-06-19 22:21
by Mike Carminati

Previous entries:

The 1870s, '80s, and '90s

The 1900s and '10s

The 1920s, '30s, and '40s

The 1950s

The 1960s

The 1970s

The 1980s

The 1990s and 2000s

20003 Notes: Part I & II

Final Analysis: I, II, III, and IV.

Base Relief I, II, and III

2006 Edition: Part I, II, III

I'd like to turn to ranking teams based on Relief Wins. First, here are the best by total relief wins:

TmYr RWin
Los Angeles Dodgers2003 13.79
Oakland Athletics1990 12.77
Texas Rangers2004 11.96
Boston Red Sox1982 11.89
Atlanta Braves2002 11.78
Cincinnati Reds1999 11.53
Cleveland Indians1995 11.40
Cleveland Indians2005 10.91
Texas Rangers1979 10.66
Montreal Expos1987 10.43
Anaheim Angels2002 10.24
Houston Astros2003 10.18
New York Yankees1985 9.73
Detroit Tigers1984 9.71
Colorado Rockies1998 9.60
Baltimore Orioles1997 9.51
Boston Red Sox2000 9.31
Oakland Athletics1989 9.27
Minnesota Twins2005 9.11
San Francisco Giants1998 9.04
Los Angeles Dodgers2004 9.01
Los Angeles Dodgers1983 8.98
Milwaukee Brewers1997 8.92
Chicago White Sox2000 8.85
St. Louis Cardinals2004 8.83

That seems to favor more recent teams who tended to give more innings to their bullpens. Next, I adjusted the numbers by the average bullpen totals for that season.

First, however, I should explain that a bullpen's worth has been exploding. Take a look at the average per decade:

DecadeTeam Avg RWins
1870s-0.06
1880s-0.07
1890s-0.12
1900s-0.08
1910s-0.11
1920s-0.11
1930s-0.14
1940s-0.01
1950s0.66
1960s1.53
1970s1.66
1980s1.63
1990s1.58
2000s1.98

OK, so here are the top twenty-five adjusted for era:

TmYr RWin Team Avg Adj RWin
Los Angeles Dodgers2003 13.79 1.99 11.80
Oakland Athletics1990 12.77 2.24 10.53
Cleveland Indians1995 11.40 1.00 10.40
Texas Rangers1979 10.66 0.73 9.93
Texas Rangers2004 11.96 2.17 9.79
Atlanta Braves2002 11.78 2.06 9.72
Boston Red Sox1982 11.89 2.49 9.40
Cleveland Indians2005 10.91 1.51 9.40
Cincinnati Reds1999 11.53 2.21 9.31
Montreal Expos1987 10.43 1.48 8.95
New York Yankees1985 9.73 1.12 8.61
Baltimore Orioles1997 9.51 1.16 8.34
Houston Astros2003 10.18 1.99 8.19
Anaheim Angels2002 10.24 2.06 8.18
Detroit Tigers1984 9.71 1.91 7.80
Milwaukee Brewers1997 8.92 1.16 7.75
St. Louis Cardinals1995 8.72 1.00 7.72
New York Giants1954 8.45 0.81 7.64
Minnesota Twins2005 9.11 1.51 7.60
Los Angeles Dodgers1983 8.98 1.47 7.51
Boston Red Sox2000 9.31 1.83 7.48
New York Yankees1997 8.64 1.16 7.48
Colorado Rockies1998 9.60 2.18 7.42
Toronto Blue Jays1985 8.41 1.12 7.29
Baltimore Orioles1979 7.96 0.73 7.23
Howard Johnson Is Right!
2006-06-14 21:23
by Mike Carminati

The Yankees and Indians faced off tonight with dueling Johnsons on the mound, Jason for Cleveland and Randy for New York. Unfortunately, the pairing ended up a bit lopsided with the Yankees prevailing 6-1 even though their Johnson was ejected in the process.

It was the first matchup between two starting pitchers named Johnson in over 74 years and just the 14th recorded faceoff in baseball history. The last double-Johnson pairing was on May 2, 1932, as Syl Johnson and the Cardinals edged Si and the Reds, 2-1, at home. (Syl? Si? I bet he had a sister named Sue. Thank you, Jack Benny.)

Here are all the games between starting pitchers named Johnson in baseball history. As you can imagine there a number of Walter Johnson starts in there, But just one against Walt Johnson:

DateGame#Visiting teamVisitors SPVT runsHome teamHome SPHT runs
193205020CINSi Johnson1SLNSyl Johnson2
193204270SLNSyl Johnson4CINSi Johnson6
192309130DETSyl Johnson3WS1Walter Johnson7
192308250WS1Walter Johnson4DETSyl Johnson5
191709032WS1Walter Johnson2PHAJing Johnson9
191706280WS1Walter Johnson4PHAJing Johnson3
191704210PHAWalt Johnson6WS1Walter Johnson11
191507311BLFRankin Johnson1KCFChief Johnson2
191407060BOSRankin Johnson0WS1Walter Johnson1
191407031BOSRankin Johnson0WS1Walter Johnson12
191406010WS1Walter Johnson0BOSRankin Johnson1
191405291WS1Walter Johnson1BOSRankin Johnson0

The fourteen Johnson pair-ups are second all time to—you guessed it—the ones by the Smiths. No, not that annoying and incredibly overrated Morrissey band—"Bigmouth Strikes Again" was inexcusable—I mean the last name Smith. Here are the all-time rankings:

Last NameMatchups
Smith21
Johnson13
Taylor10
Niekro9
McCormick8
Martinez7
Keefe6
Jackson5
Brown5
Barnes5
Bradley4
Barrett4
Anderson3
Mitchell3
Sweeney3
Davis2
Maddux2
Witt2
Fernandez1
Young1
Baldwin1
Wilson1
Benes1
Benton1
Wells1
Underwood1
Bush1
Martin1
Thomas1
Melton1
Guzman1
Harris1
Hughes1
Stone1
Steele1
Jones1
Abbott1
Perry1
Zambrano1
Perez1
Castillo1

By the way, the Walt/Walter Johnson game made me wonder how often two pitchers with the same first and last name faced off. The answer is just three times, with the Bobby J. vs. Bobby M. Jones matchup from a few years back being one. The other two are from one century earlier:

DateGame#Visiting teamVisitors SPVT runsHome teamHome SPHT runs
199905110NYNBobby Jones5COLBobby Jones8
189904160CHNJack Taylor8CINJack Taylor4
189810091SLNJack Taylor4CHNJack Taylor5
“Halls of Relief”— 2006, Pt III: The Big Three
2006-06-13 22:34
by Mike Carminati

Previous entries:

The 1870s, '80s, and '90s

The 1900s and '10s

The 1920s, '30s, and '40s

The 1950s

The 1960s

The 1970s

The 1980s

The 1990s and 2000s

20003 Notes: Part I & II

Final Analysis: I, II, III, and IV.

Base Relief I, II, and III

2006 Edition: Part I, II

I've rerun all the numbers and here are the most valuable of all time. First, the single-season best.

Keep in mind that the reliever types are as follows:

PlayerTypeGPIPSvPR/WinIP/GSv/GSv/IP
Starter 1812008.56.8700
Clint BrownA58106105.881.830.170.094
Elroy FaceB5996155.141.630.250.156
Hoyt WilhelmC72128244.471.780.330.188
Bruce SutterD61111384.731.820.620.342
Robb NenE7791414.641.180.530.451
Middle RelieverM 22 20 0.34 Varies by era0.918614 0.02 0.017

OK, here are the most valuable reliever years by Relief Wins:

NameYr RWin PitchWS Type PR SV IP RAGFG ERA WL
Jim Kern1979 9.28 24.9 C 41.46 29 143.0 715771 1.57 135
Rich Gossage1977 7.66 26.0 C 34.23 26 133.0 725572 1.62 119
Doug Corbett1980 7.45 24.0 C 33.32 23 136.3 736373 1.98 86
Mark Eichhorn1986 7.33 21.0 A 43.13 10 157.0 693869 1.72 146
John Hiller1973 7.28 30.5 D 34.46 38 125.3 656065 1.44 105
Willie Hernandez1984 7.08 24.0 C 31.64 32 140.3 806880 1.92 93
Rich Gossage1975 7.00 22.8 C 31.30 26 141.7 624962 1.84 98
Dan Quisenberry1983 6.91 27.8 D 32.70 45 139.0 696269 1.94 53
Bruce Sutter1977 6.83 26.8 D 32.33 31 107.3 624862 1.34 73
Tim Burke1987 6.62 19.7 C 29.60 18 91.0 553055 1.19 70
Sparky Lyle1977 6.21 20.2 C 27.77 26 137.0 726072 2.17 135
Roberto Hernandez1996 6.01 17.1 E 27.89 38 84.7 726172 1.91 65
Aurelio Lopez1979 5.92 19.1 C 26.47 21 127.0 614961 2.41 105
Eric Gagne2003 5.91 25.0 E 27.44 55 82.3 776777 1.20 23
Bruce Sutter1984 5.76 23.0 D 27.26 45 122.7 716371 1.54 57
Dennis Eckersley1990 5.72 19.3 E 26.55 48 73.3 636163 0.61 42
Dick Radatz1964 5.71 24.5 C 25.52 29 157.0 796779 2.29 169
Dick Radatz1963 5.70 23.8 C 25.48 25 132.3 665866 1.97 156
Mike Marshall1979 5.66 22.7 C 25.29 32 136.5 898490 2.65 1015
Robb Nen1998 5.63 19.1 E 26.13 40 88.7 786778 1.52 77
Dick Radatz1962 5.63 20.8 C 25.16 24 124.7 625362 2.24 96
Mariano Rivera2005 5.63 - E 26.10 43 78.3 716771 1.38 74
Ellis Kinder1953 5.61 22.7 D 26.53 27 107.0 695169 1.85 106
Ted Abernathy1967 5.57 24.1 D 26.36 28 106.3 706170 1.27 63
Rich Gossage1978 5.57 20.1 C 24.89 27 134.3 635563 2.01 1011
John Wetteland1993 5.54 21.4 E 25.69 43 85.3 705870 1.37 93
Derek Lowe1999 5.50 18.7 B 28.25 15 109.3 743274 2.63 63
Jose Mesa1995 5.46 16.9 E 25.35 46 64.0 625762 1.13 30
Brad Lidge2004 5.44 17.2 E 25.26 29 94.7 804480 1.90 65
Bob James1985 5.43 21.8 D 25.70 32 110.0 696069 2.13 87
Greg Minton1982 5.42 20.7 C 24.22 30 123.0 786678 1.83 104
Dan Quisenberry1985 5.38 23.1 D 25.46 37 129.0 847684 2.37 89
Donnie Moore1985 5.34 19.9 D 25.25 31 103.0 655765 1.92 88
Hoyt Wilhelm1965 5.33 19.3 C 23.82 20 144.0 664566 1.81 77
Phil Regan1966 5.29 22.6 C 23.65 21 116.7 654865 1.62 141
Joe Nathan2004 5.27 16.1 E 24.46 44 72.3 736373 1.62 12
Dan Spillner1982 5.26 20.6 C 23.50 21 133.7 655465 2.49 1210
Billy Wagner2003 5.25 18.7 E 24.38 44 86.0 786778 1.78 14
Ken Sanders1971 5.24 21.3 C 23.42 31 136.3 837783 1.91 712
Tom Burgmeier1980 5.24 17.2 C 23.41 24 99.0 623962 2.00 54
Billy Wagner2005 5.23 - E 24.26 38 77.7 757075 1.51 43
Mudcat Grant1970 5.22 20.9 B 26.85 24 135.3 805480 1.86 83
Dick Hyde1958 5.22 19.3 C 23.34 18 103.0 534453 1.75 103
Billy Wagner1999 5.21 20.5 E 24.17 39 74.7 665566 1.57 41
Derek Lowe2000 5.20 18.6 E 24.11 42 91.3 746474 2.56 44
Sid Monge1979 5.19 20.8 B 26.70 19 131.0 765376 2.40 1210
Keith Foulke1999 5.16 16.4 A 30.33 9 105.3 673167 2.22 33
Jesse Orosco1983 5.12 20.1 B 26.32 17 110.0 624262 1.47 137
Keith Foulke2004 5.10 14.9 E 23.65 32 83.0 726172 2.17 53
Tug McGraw1980 5.07 18.0 C 22.67 20 92.3 574857 1.46 54
Mariano Rivera1996 5.07 17.9 M 35.07 5 107.7 611461 2.09 83

Now, here are the worst (or most damaging) seasons:

NameYrRWin PitchWS TypePRSV IP RAGFG ERA WL
Ron Davis1986-4.02 - M-27.272 58.7 533353 8.59 28
Don McMahon1960-3.80 - B-19.5410 63.7 482748 5.94 36
Bobby Ayala1998-3.75 - A-22.058 75.3 623662 7.29 110
Lee Guetterman1992-3.72 - M-25.742 66.0 582258 7.09 45
Norm Charlton1997-3.63 - A-21.3614 69.3 713871 7.27 38
Darold Knowles1975-3.55 3.4 B-18.2415 88.3 583658 5.81 69
Jose Mesa2003-3.49 0.5 E-16.1824 58.0 614761 6.52 57
Jim Todd1979-3.47 - M-23.522 81.0 512151 6.56 25
Mike Perez1994-3.40 - E-15.7812 31.0 361836 8.71 23
Dave Hamilton1980-3.37 - M-22.850 25.0 20321 11.40 03
Ben Hayes1983-3.35 - A-19.687 69.3 603460 6.49 46
Jaret Wright2003-3.34 1.3 M-23.112 56.3 501750 7.35 25
Joe Heving1934-3.30 - A-19.384 72.2 312133 7.26 17
Brian Bruney2005-3.23 - E-14.9712 46.0 472147 7.43 13
Jeff Kaiser1985-3.15 - M-21.350 16.7 15415 14.58 00
Jose Jimenez2004-3.11 (2.1)B-16.008 36.3 311831 8.42 17
Mike Williams2003-3.02 2.1 E-14.0228 63.0 684768 6.14 17
Mel Rojas1999-2.98 - M-20.610 14.0 13513 18.00 00
Les Lancaster1992-2.92 - M-20.240 76.1 401741 6.33 34
Travis Harper2005-2.91 - M-20.110 73.3 521352 6.75 46
Mark Wohlers1998-2.89 - E-13.438 20.3 271727 10.18 01
Larry Sherry1967-2.88 0.5 A-16.957 68.7 492349 5.50 13
Byron McLaughlin1980-2.87 - M-19.432 65.2 411545 6.85 36
Jess Doyle1925-2.86 3.5 A-16.838 91.3 423445 5.93 47
Mark Clear1983-2.85 0.6 M-19.314 96.0 483348 6.28 45
Rich Thompson1985-2.82 - M-19.135 80.0 572457 6.30 38
Leo Nunez2005-2.82 - M-19.510 53.7 411041 7.55 32
Bryan Hickerson1995-2.82 - M-19.481 48.3 561356 8.57 33
Gabe White2004-2.79 (0.4)M-19.341 59.7 641564 6.94 13
Alan Embree2001-2.75 1.7 M-19.040 54.0 611761 7.33 14
Mark Petkovsek2001-2.73 0.2 M-18.890 76.7 551955 6.69 12
John Montague1979-2.73 5.2 A-16.057 123.4 542555 5.51 84
Ernie Beam1895-2.71 C-12.103 16.7 889 11.31 02
George Frazier1985-2.70 - M-18.342 76.0 511751 6.39 78
Hugh Casey1948-2.70 - A-15.874 36.0 221122 8.00 30
Vic Darensbourg1999-2.69 - M-18.600 34.7 56556 8.83 01
Shawn Chacon2004-2.68 (0.8)E-12.4535 63.3 666066 7.11 19
Xavier Rescigno1945-2.68 1.2 B-13.779 72.8 432744 5.72 35
Darren Holmes2000-2.66 - M-18.391 19.3 18418 13.03 01
Omar Daal1997-2.65 1.6 M-18.341 37.4 39642 7.06 23
Alan Embree2005-2.65 - M-18.311 52.0 671567 7.62 25
Dave Beard1984-2.60 1.0 A-15.295 76.0 432643 5.80 32
Lee Guetterman1986-2.58 - M-17.510 52.1 37841 7.34 04
Tim Stoddard1988-2.58 - A-15.163 55.0 28928 6.38 22
Randy Moffitt1979-2.57 - M-17.412 35.0 281328 7.71 25
Jesus Colome2002-2.53 - M-17.520 41.3 321532 8.27 27
Kyle Farnsworth2002-2.53 - M-17.491 46.7 451745 7.33 46
Bob Chakales1957-2.50 - A-14.723 35.6 201322 7.15 03
Jay Powell2003-2.50 - M-17.290 58.7 512051 7.82 30
Brian Edmondson1999-2.49 2.0 M-17.241 94.0 681468 5.84 58
Gene Nelson1991-2.49 - M-17.220 48.7 441144 6.84 15
Albie Lopez2003-2.48 - M-17.180 22.7 15315 12.71 42

Now, here's the kicker. Here are the most valuable relievers of all time:

Name RWin NumYrs RWin Per Yr PitchWS PR SV IP RAGFG ERA WL
Hoyt Wilhelm 46.85 21 2.23 255.3 239.03 227 1,845.8 10186511070 2.52 143122
Mariano Rivera 43.26 11 3.93 145.1 211.92 379 749.4 647541657 2.33 5435
Rich Gossage 41.95 22 1.91 222.4 177.62 310 1,530.8 9656811002 3.01 124107
Dan Quisenberry 30.32 12 2.53 156.5 145.91 244 1,043.3 674553674 2.76 5646
John Franco 29.66 21 1.41 183.8 144.95 424 1,245.7 11197741119 2.89 9087
Billy Wagner 28.51 11 2.59 108.0 132.86 284 630.3 584487584 2.40 3432
Tom Henke 28.28 14 2.02 139.0 130.21 311 789.7 642548642 2.67 4142
Roberto Hernandez 27.90 15 1.86 126.8 133.39 324 950.6 889628892 3.33 6465
Lee Smith 26.86 18 1.49 198.2 127.70 478 1,252.3 10168021022 3.03 7192
Trevor Hoffman 26.50 13 2.04 132.0 124.48 436 822.3 756632756 2.76 4953
John Wetteland 26.18 12 2.18 126.3 121.61 330 662.9 601523618 2.93 4845
Keith Foulke 25.28 9 2.81 104.0 128.14 190 664.0 536381544 3.23 3833
Sparky Lyle 24.99 16 1.56 160.9 119.28 238 1,390.3 899634899 2.88 9976
Doug Jones 24.89 16 1.56 144.4 124.94 303 1,103.9 842640846 3.30 6979
Kent Tekulve 24.64 16 1.54 160.4 138.50 184 1,436.3 10506381050 2.85 9490
Rollie Fingers 24.52 17 1.44 187.2 110.55 341 1,455.3 907709944 2.90 114118
Armando Benitez 23.14 12 1.93 113.1 111.01 263 684.0 658468658 2.92 3436
Bruce Sutter 22.68 12 1.89 167.6 109.34 300 1,042.3 661512661 2.83 6871
Jeff Montgomery 22.61 13 1.74 134.0 107.22 304 863.6 699549700 3.27 4652
Robb Nen 22.50 10 2.25 119.9 101.48 314 689.0 639548643 2.98 4542
Dennis Eckersley 21.23 15 1.42 298.3 98.24 390 800.5 7105771071 3.50 197171
Troy Percival 21.19 11 1.93 110.1 105.82 324 611.7 605489605 3.10 3041
Mike Marshall 20.47 14 1.46 145.1 96.14 188 1,240.4 699549723 3.14 97112
John Hiller 20.38 15 1.36 143.8 106.70 125 940.5 502363545 2.83 8776
Jesse Orosco 19.98 24 0.83 142.8 113.07 144 1,265.6 12485011252 3.16 8780
Mike Jackson 19.77 17 1.16 124.2 112.55 142 1,144.1 9984221005 3.42 6267
Tug McGraw 19.72 18 1.10 157.7 98.19 180 1,268.8 785541824 3.14 9692
Mark Eichhorn 19.44 10 1.94 82.8 124.16 32 847.7 556226563 3.00 4843
Mike Timlin 19.41 15 1.29 98.1 111.98 130 1,006.3 889400893 3.50 6362
Ron Perranoski 19.28 13 1.48 127.5 85.79 179 1,167.4 736458737 2.79 7974
Bob Stanley 18.65 13 1.43 150.1 91.84 132 1,116.4 552376637 3.64 11597
Bob Wickman 18.62 12 1.55 97.6 98.97 214 782.8 693416721 3.62 5951
Rick Aguilera 18.08 15 1.21 148.0 85.52 318 724.9 643557732 3.57 8681
Gene Garber 17.81 19 0.94 158.7 89.65 218 1,437.0 922609931 3.34 96113
Clay Carroll 17.20 15 1.15 124.8 90.97 143 1,151.7 703373731 2.94 9673
Jeff Reardon 16.78 16 1.05 155.2 82.78 367 1,132.3 880695880 3.16 7377
Gary Lavelle 16.42 13 1.26 112.2 90.09 136 1,065.1 742399745 2.93 8077
Mike Henneman 16.38 10 1.64 97.0 77.52 193 732.7 561432561 3.21 5742
Greg Minton 16.13 15 1.08 106.1 77.42 150 1,081.7 703415710 3.10 5965
Roy Face 15.97 16 1.00 140.2 61.45 193 1,199.3 821574848 3.48 10495
Ellis Kinder 15.95 12 1.33 144.9 79.88 102 598.2 362255484 3.43 10271
Stu Miller 15.70 16 0.98 152.3 72.08 154 1,058.5 611405704 3.24 105103
Ugueth Urbina 15.42 11 1.40 92.1 73.21 237 579.1 562408583 3.45 4449
Jason Isringhausen 15.39 7 2.20 72.7 71.41 216 416.0 396331448 3.60 3636
Jeff Shaw 15.12 12 1.26 96.2 77.15 203 738.4 614384633 3.54 3454
Paul Quantrill 14.97 14 1.07 94.9 103.58 21 864.0 777228841 3.83 6878
Randy Myers 14.84 14 1.06 121.8 68.86 347 809.7 716548728 3.19 4463
Tom Burgmeier 14.82 17 0.87 108.1 81.33 102 1,241.3 742370745 3.23 7955
Tim Burke 14.61 8 1.83 84.6 72.46 102 687.0 496262498 2.72 4933
Steve Reed 14.47 14 1.03 83.1 100.12 18 870.7 833197833 3.63 4944
Dave Smith 14.46 13 1.11 105.4 75.70 216 803.7 608432609 2.67 5353
Jeff Nelson 14.39 14 1.03 71.1 98.83 33 782.0 792234792 3.41 4844
Ted Abernathy 14.29 14 1.02 106.7 62.40 148 963.4 647416681 3.46 6369
Rod Beck 14.27 13 1.10 103.5 69.26 286 768.0 704519704 3.30 3845
Eric Gagne 14.10 6 2.35 69.4 65.15 160 270.3 248210296 3.28 2521
Jeff Russell 14.02 12 1.17 102.7 71.11 186 603.8 510340589 3.75 5673

Now, the best in Relief Wins per year:

Name RWin NumYrs RWin Per Yr PitchWS PR SV IP RAGFG ERA WL
Huston Street 5.02 1 5.02 - 23.30 23 78.3 674767 1.72 51
Mariano Rivera 43.26 11 3.93 145.1 211.92 379 749.4 647541657 2.33 5435
Keith Foulke 25.28 9 2.81 104.0 128.14 190 664.0 536381544 3.23 3833
Derek Lowe 13.15 5 2.63 96.1 65.48 85 350.8 276155431 3.83 8474
Billy Wagner 28.51 11 2.59 108.0 132.86 284 630.3 584487584 2.40 3432
John Smoltz 10.24 4 2.56 231.0 47.50 154 256.6 241204635 3.26 177128
Dan Quisenberry 30.32 12 2.53 156.5 145.91 244 1,043.3 674553674 2.76 5646
Brad Lidge 9.57 4 2.39 25.4 46.58 72 254.3 233120234 2.71 1712
Eric Gagne 14.10 6 2.35 69.4 65.15 160 270.3 248210296 3.28 2521
Jeff Zimmerman 6.96 3 2.32 30.8 40.05 32 228.7 19684196 3.27 1712
Francisco Rodriguez 9.15 4 2.29 24.6 52.95 59 243.0 199114199 2.44 149
Chad Cordero 6.80 3 2.27 12.6 33.80 62 168.0 155106155 2.36 107
Robb Nen 22.50 10 2.25 119.9 101.48 314 689.0 639548643 2.98 4542
Hoyt Wilhelm 46.85 21 2.23 255.3 239.03 227 1,845.8 10186511070 2.52 143122
Jason Isringhausen 15.39 7 2.20 72.7 71.41 216 416.0 396331448 3.60 3636
John Wetteland 26.18 12 2.18 126.3 121.61 330 662.9 601523618 2.93 4845
Bob Lee 10.78 5 2.16 54.0 34.12 63 440.4 262152269 2.70 2523
Trevor Hoffman 26.50 13 2.04 132.0 124.48 436 822.3 756632756 2.76 4953
Tom Henke 28.28 14 2.02 139.0 130.21 311 789.7 642548642 2.67 4142
Mark Eichhorn 19.44 10 1.94 82.8 124.16 32 847.7 556226563 3.00 4843

You may notice that if Mariano Rivera has an average (for him) season this year, he will pass Hoyt Wilhelm as the most valuable reliever of all time. But even so, it is apparent that the best three relievers by a long shot are Wilhelm, Rivera, and Goose Gossage. Hopefully, Goose will get the call to the Hall next year.

Now, here are the worst career relievers:

NameRWinNumYrsRWin Per Yr PitchWS PRSV IP RAGFG ERA WL
John Montague-7.337-1.05 23.4 -39.6921 407.9 20697223 4.76 2426
Scott Bailes-5.509-0.61 26.2 -36.8913 333.7 284103343 4.95 3944
Kevin Jarvis-4.928-0.61 12.1 -34.031 79.7 6420178 5.97 3447
Frank LaCorte-4.839-0.54 18.2 -36.0026 306.1 221125253 5.01 2344
Jeff Kaiser-4.827-0.69 1.4 -31.542 52.0 501350 9.17 02
Pat Mahomes-4.8210-0.48 26.2 -33.345 323.9 24574308 5.47 4239
Bo McLaughlin-4.546-0.76 8.9 -29.649 182.2 13562156 4.49 1020
Matt Whiteside-4.4311-0.40 22.1 -31.719 397.2 28589286 5.23 1815
Lou McEvoy-4.402-2.20 -25.864 58.5 331834 7.79 13
Brian Williams-4.377-0.62 13.7 -30.246 250.0 19767256 5.37 2638
Dave Beard-4.307-0.61 14.8 -24.7830 259.7 169113172 4.70 1920
Wes Gardner-4.228-0.53 17.8 -26.5714 207.9 14576189 4.90 1830
Dave Wainhouse-4.167-0.59 2.4 -28.790 105.0 853185 7.37 23
Eddie Oropesa-4.144-1.03 0.4 -28.630 92.0 12522125 7.34 84
Omar Daal-4.139-0.46 59.4 -28.591 196.5 22841392 4.55 6878
Drew Hall-3.925-0.78 6.3 -26.765 172.9 12135125 5.21 912
Jerry Johnson-3.7810-0.38 34.0 -41.5141 516.7 326184365 4.31 4851
Xavier Rescigno-3.663-1.22 15.5 -17.6116 204.5 10860129 4.13 1922
Vic Darensbourg-3.628-0.45 11.5 -25.082 303.0 30975309 4.96 817
Larry McWilliams-3.609-0.40 68.0 -24.613 169.9 14644370 3.99 7890
Dwayne Henry-3.5611-0.32 16.4 -24.3814 326.5 25599256 4.65 1415
Robert Person-3.566-0.59 42.1 -19.459 88.8 7126206 4.64 5142
Frank Rodriguez-3.567-0.51 23.9 -24.235 145.1 10231184 5.53 2939
Jaret Wright-3.522-1.76 39.4 -24.332 57.3 5218193 5.17 5750
Doug Creek-3.498-0.44 10.2 -24.151 276.0 27670279 5.32 714
Willie Blair-3.4812-0.29 47.2 -24.094 370.4 27975418 5.04 6086
Jay Baller-3.426-0.57 5.5 -22.286 123.6 893694 5.24 49
Will Cunnane-3.428-0.43 7.6 -24.253 203.4 17244184 5.26 1312
Steve Shields-3.405-0.68 4.9 -22.173 176.9 9632102 5.26 88
Tanyon Sturtze-3.358-0.42 29.3 -23.163 214.5 16745251 5.18 4044
Jose Bautista-3.339-0.37 31.1 -23.043 354.8 26397312 4.62 3242
Jim Dougherty-3.324-0.83 2.7 -22.980 94.7 791779 5.99 88
Phil Hennigan-3.325-0.66 18.8 -17.7925 265.5 174100176 4.26 1714
Mark Holzemer-3.316-0.55 -22.881 78.4 902494 7.69 25
Dave Stevens-3.307-0.47 12.7 -23.4721 228.0 17793183 6.02 1516
Scott Service-3.2812-0.27 26.1 -21.0016 409.3 337101338 4.99 2022
Jason Boyd-3.255-0.65 3.7 -22.500 133.3 11334113 5.74 52
Ray Burris-3.2413-0.25 96.5 -28.044 269.6 17865480 4.17 108134
Bill Dietrich-3.2414-0.23 92.9 -22.7811 228.4 11372366 4.48 108128
Bob Owchinko-3.228-0.40 31.9 -21.747 267.9 17154275 4.28 3760
Jeff Williams-3.194-0.80 1.0 -22.050 34.6 331037 7.49 41
Brian Bruney-3.172-1.58 2.5 -14.5512 77.3 773577 6.17 47
Adam Bernero-3.146-0.52 4.0 -21.750 141.2 11234146 5.91 1026
Marino Pieretti-3.146-0.52 23.7 -30.468 218.8 12661194 4.53 3038
Brad Pennington-3.135-0.63 1.4 -19.834 75.7 793179 7.02 36
Frank Wills-3.129-0.35 14.4 -20.526 194.8 11944154 5.06 2226
Bryan Hickerson-3.125-0.62 14.8 -21.562 190.1 17331209 4.72 2121
Russ Springer-3.1113-0.24 22.9 -21.338 454.3 419104446 5.08 2438
Doug Simons-3.102-1.55 0.7 -21.441 59.4 481349 6.68 23
John Pacella-3.096-0.52 1.5 -19.513 88.1 531874 5.73 410
“Halls of Relief”— 2006, Pt II: Stuck in the Middle with Mo
2006-06-13 09:12
by Mike Carminati

Previous entries:

The 1870s, '80s, and '90s

The 1900s and '10s

The 1920s, '30s, and '40s

The 1950s

The 1960s

The 1970s

The 1980s

The 1990s and 2000s

20003 Notes: Part I & II

Final Analysis: I, II, III, and IV.

Base Relief I, II, and III

2006 Edition: Part I

As promised, here are the updated middle relief leaders for Relief Wins based on the updated runs saved-to-relief wins matrix. First, here are the all-time best:

NameYr PR Sv IP RA Relief Wins
Mariano Rivera1996 35.07 5 107.7 61 5.07
Chris Hammond2002 26.67 0 76.0 63 3.85
Paul Quantrill1997 25.87 5 88.0 77 3.74
Gabe White2000 25.70 5 84.0 68 3.71
Guillermo Mota2003 25.45 1 105.0 76 3.68
Octavio Dotel2002 25.17 6 97.3 83 3.64
Jeff Zimmerman1999 24.99 3 87.7 65 3.61
Rheal Cormier2003 23.58 1 84.7 65 3.41
Tom Gordon2004 23.45 4 89.7 80 3.39
B.J. Ryan2004 23.40 3 87.0 76 3.38
Steve Reed1995 23.39 3 84.0 71 3.38
Brendan Donnelly2003 23.37 3 74.0 63 3.38
Todd Frohwirth1991 23.21 3 96.3 51 3.35
LaTroy Hawkins2003 23.19 2 77.3 74 3.35
J.C. Romero2002 22.95 1 81.0 81 3.32
Troy Percival1995 22.75 3 74.0 62 3.29
Jeff Nelson1995 22.74 2 78.7 62 3.29
Felix Rodriguez2001 22.58 0 80.3 80 3.26
Frank Williams1987 21.93 2 105.7 85 3.24
Tom Burgmeier1982 21.79 2 102.3 40 3.21
Eric Plunk1996 21.72 2 77.7 56 3.14
Dennis Lamp1989 21.12 2 112.3 42 3.11
Mark Eichhorn1994 21.50 1 71.0 43 3.11
Doug Brocail1999 21.49 2 82.0 70 3.11
Julian Tavarez1995 21.04 0 85.0 57 3.04
Justin Duchscherer2005 21.02 5 85.7 65 3.04
Akinori Otsuka2004 20.85 2 77.3 73 3.01
Paul Quantrill2003 20.80 1 77.3 89 3.01
Jeff Tam2000 20.72 3 85.7 72 2.99
LaTroy Hawkins2002 20.60 0 80.3 65 2.98

Now here are the worst all time:

NameYrPRSv IP RARelief Wins
Ron Davis1986-27.272 58.7 53-4.02
Lee Guetterman1992-25.742 66.0 58-3.72
Jim Todd1979-23.522 81.0 51-3.47
Dave Hamilton1980-22.850 25.0 20-3.37
Jaret Wright2003-23.112 56.3 50-3.34
Jeff Kaiser1985-21.350 16.7 15-3.15
Mel Rojas1999-20.610 14.0 13-2.98
Les Lancaster1992-20.240 76.1 40-2.92
Travis Harper2005-20.110 73.3 52-2.91
Byron McLaughlin1980-19.432 65.2 41-2.87
Mark Clear1983-19.314 96.0 48-2.85
Rich Thompson1985-19.135 80.0 57-2.82
Leo Nunez2005-19.510 53.7 41-2.82
Bryan Hickerson1995-19.481 48.3 56-2.82
Gabe White2004-19.341 59.7 64-2.79
Alan Embree2001-19.040 54.0 61-2.75
Mark Petkovsek2001-18.890 76.7 55-2.73
George Frazier1985-18.342 76.0 51-2.70
Vic Darensbourg1999-18.600 34.7 56-2.69
Darren Holmes2000-18.391 19.3 18-2.66
Omar Daal1997-18.341 37.4 39-2.65
Alan Embree2005-18.311 52.0 67-2.65
Lee Guetterman1986-17.510 52.1 37-2.58
Randy Moffitt1979-17.412 35.0 28-2.57
Jesus Colome2002-17.520 41.3 32-2.53
Kyle Farnsworth2002-17.491 46.7 45-2.53
Jay Powell2003-17.290 58.7 51-2.50
Brian Edmondson1999-17.241 94.0 68-2.49
Gene Nelson1991-17.220 48.7 44-2.49
Albie Lopez2003-17.180 22.7 15-2.48

Next, I will meld the middle relief data in with the rest of the relief pitcher classifications and will present the all-time best for a single season as well as per career.

“Halls of Relief”—2006 Edition
2006-06-12 23:07
by Mike Carminati

Previous entries:

The 1870s, '80s, and '90s

The 1900s and '10s

The 1920s, '30s, and '40s

The 1950s

The 1960s

The 1970s

The 1980s

The 1990s and 2000s

20003 Notes: Part I & II

Final Analysis: I, II, III, and IV.

Base Relief I, II, and III

In order to present my old study on relief pitching at SABR 36, I decided to update the stats and to also resolve an issue that cropped up in the original study. The problem is that I jury-rigged the stats for middle relievers by extrapolating between starters and old-tyme closers. The results were that, I felt, the evaluations for the best middle relievers were way out of skew.

Now that I have loaded Retrosheet's game log data, I can derive how well saving a run led to wins in different scenarios for different eras. I used the data for starting pitchers and closers to determine the scenarios that would apply to middle relief and to weight the various scenarios.

Here are the results for middle relievers by era. Note that they have not had much impact on the game until the late Seventies:

Date Range Runs Saved/Relief W Avg IP/G IP Per GS
<1955 35.50 2.09 7.26
1955-62 37.64 1.78 6.88
1963-78 44.02 1.62 7.00
1979-89 6.78 1.55 6.58
>1989 6.92 1.18 6.24

I also listed the average appearance length for a middle reliever and for the starting pitcher for each era. Now, we can plug these numbers into my formulae for middle relievers, stir, and then we will have updated middle relief data.

I'll update all the stats to include the new middle relief numbers as well as all data through 2005 tomorrow.

Rivalry Revelry
2006-06-08 21:03
by Mike Carminati

I know that I said I would look at the overall franchise-versus-franchise records, but I want to take one more look at the season-series records more closely first. I thought that looking at just those teams that competed for a title would be a bit more interesting and more to the point.

So here are the closest (in terms of average margin of victory) season series of all time involving two teams including at least one first-place or playoff team. I limited the games apart between the two to less than six games.

YearTeam 1PCT1POS1GB1Team 2PCT2POS2GB2Tot GTot Run Diff AvgRunDiff Team1 WTeam2 WGB Diff
1987Toronto Blue Jays.59322Detroit Tigers.605101320 1.54 672
1994Kansas City Royals.55734Chicago White Sox.593101016 1.60 734
1980New York Yankees.63610Baltimore Orioles.617231324 1.85 673
2005Philadelphia Phillies.54322Houston Astros.549211612 2.00 061
1980Los Angeles Dodgers.56421Houston Astros.571101941 2.16 1091
2003Houston Astros.53721Florida Marlins.562210613 2.17 514
2002Oakland Athletics.63610Anaheim Angels.611242045 2.25 1194
2003St. Louis Cardinals.52533Chicago Cubs.543101739 2.29 983
1980Philadelphia Phillies.56210Montreal Expos.556211842 2.33 991
1996Montreal Expos.54328Los Angeles Dodgers.556211228 2.33 392
1973Los Angeles Dodgers.59023.5Cincinnati Reds.611101843 2.39 7113.5
1985St. Louis Cardinals.62310New York Mets.605231845 2.50 1083
1974St. Louis Cardinals.53421.5Pittsburgh Pirates.543101845 2.50 1171.5
2001St. Louis Cardinals.57420San Francisco Giants.55622615 2.50 243
1978Texas Rangers.53725Kansas City Royals.568101538 2.53 875
1987St. Louis Cardinals.58610New York Mets.568231846 2.56 993
2002San Francisco Giants.59022.5Arizona Diamondbacks.605101949 2.58 1182.5
1985Toronto Blue Jays.61510New York Yankees.602221334 2.62 762
1995Houston Astros.52829Colorado Rockies.53521821 2.63 441
2004San Diego Padres.53736Houston Astros.568213616 2.67 425
1994Houston Astros.57420.5Cincinnati Reds.579101027 2.70 640.5
1979Pittsburgh Pirates.60510Montreal Expos.594221849 2.72 1172
1983Los Angeles Dodgers.56210Atlanta Braves.543231849 2.72 1173
1981St. Louis Cardinals.57810Montreal Expos.556221541 2.73 962
1972Oakland Athletics.60010Chicago White Sox.56525.51541 2.73 875.5
1990Toronto Blue Jays.53122Boston Red Sox.543101336 2.77 3102
1998New York Mets.543218Chicago Cubs.552212.5925 2.78 541.5

It's nice to find the '87 Blue Jays/Tigers at the top of the list, and I like seeing last year's Phils/Astros there as well, but there are not a lot of the usual rivalries on the list.

Now here are the worst season series of all time:

YearTeam 1PCT1POS1GB1Team 2PCT2POS2GB2Tot GTot Run Diff AvgRunDiff Team1 WTeam2 WGB Diff
1995New York Yankees.54927California Angels.538211263 5.25 571.5
1992Toronto Blue Jays.59310Milwaukee Brewers.568241368 5.23 584
2005New York Yankees.58610Boston Red Sox.586201999 5.21 1090
2000Toronto Blue Jays.51234.5New York Yankees.540101260 5.00 754.5
1978New York Yankees.61310Boston Red Sox.607211680 5.00 971
1995Texas Rangers.51434.5Seattle Mariners.545101364 4.92 3104.5
1988Detroit Tigers.54321Boston Red Sox.549101363 4.85 761
1998Texas Rangers.54310Anaheim Angels.525231258 4.83 753
1997New York Yankees.59322Baltimore Orioles.605101258 4.83 482
1982Milwaukee Brewers.58610Baltimore Orioles.580211466 4.71 4101
2000Cleveland Indians.55625Chicago White Sox.586101361 4.69 585
1986New York Yankees.55625.5Boston Red Sox.590101361 4.69 855.5
1979Kansas City Royals.52523California Angels.543101361 4.69 673
1981St. Louis Cardinals.57810Philadelphia Phillies.55132.51360 4.62 672.5
1988Toronto Blue Jays.53732Boston Red Sox.549101360 4.62 1122
2000New York Mets.58021Atlanta Braves.586101359 4.54 671
2004San Francisco Giants.56222Houston Astros.568213627 4.50 421
1989Toronto Blue Jays.54910Baltimore Orioles.537221358 4.46 672
2003Seattle Mariners.57423Oakland Athletics.593101984 4.42 1273
1995Seattle Mariners.54510California Angels.538211357 4.38 671
2000Seattle Mariners.56220.5Cleveland Indians.55625939 4.33 271
1997San Francisco Giants.55610Los Angeles Dodgers.543221251 4.25 662
2000New York Yankees.54010Boston Red Sox.52522.51355 4.23 762.5
2005Philadelphia Phillies.54322Atlanta Braves.556101980 4.21 1092

The Red Sox and Yankees show up on this list a few of times, including the 1978 division rivals who ended up in a one-game playoff. It seems the typical rivalries that we usually think of.

Now. I want to look at the overall head-to-head records for all franchises to see which have played the tightest contests. Do the big rivalries (Yankees-Red Sox, Giants-Dodgers, etc.) actually play each other more evenly than just random matchups?

Here are the franchises who played the closest games in their overall head-to-head competition:

Franchise 1WFranchise 2WFirstLastTot GTot Run Diff AvgRunDiff
Philadelphia Phillies3Boston Red Sox11998199847 1.75
Milwaukee Grays1Atlanta Braves11187818781223 1.92
Texas Rangers3Los Angeles Dodgers11997199748 2.00
Washington Olympics1Boston Red Stockings418711871510 2.00
Toledo Blue Stockings5Richmond Virginians018841884511 2.20
St. Louis Cardinals3Richmond Virginians11884188449 2.25
Texas Rangers2San Francisco Giants21997199749 2.25
New York Mutuals5New Haven Elm Citys118751875614 2.33
Philadelphia Athletics5Milwaukee Brewers318911891819 2.38
Boston Reds6Baltimore Monumentals10188418841639 2.44
Chicago Whales23Baltimore Terrapins211914191544109 2.48
Detroit Tigers2Colorado Rockies420032003615 2.50
Oakland Athletics1Los Angeles Dodgers319971997410 2.50
Texas Rangers2San Diego Padres219971997410 2.50
Toledo Maumees3Baltimore Orioles318901890615 2.50
Troy Haymakers0Fort Wayne Kekiongas21871187125 2.50
Newark Pepper20Chicago Whales241914191544111 2.52
Syracuse Stars1Chicago Cubs818791879923 2.56
St. Louis Terriers25Brooklyn Tip-Tops201914191545117 2.60
Toledo Blue Stockings5Pittsburgh Pirates5188418841026 2.60

Pretty random, huh? Let's limit ourselves to just those potential rivals who have played at least, say, one hundred games against each other. Take two:

Franchise 1WFranchise 2WFirstLastTot GTot Run Diff AvgRunDiff
New York Mets233Los Angeles Dodgers289196220055221479 2.83
Los Angeles Dodgers60Florida Marlins5219932005112323 2.88
Washington Nationals306New York Mets310196920056161810 2.94
San Diego Padres171Chicago Cubs224196920053951166 2.95
San Francisco Giants67Florida Marlins4119932005108319 2.95
Pittsburgh Pirates66Milwaukee Brewers5619982005122361 2.96
Washington Nationals276Chicago Cubs250196920055261565 2.98
Houston Astros304Atlanta Braves354196220056581963 2.98
San Diego Padres203New York Mets200196920054031206 2.99
Milwaukee Brewers168Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim178196919973461037 3.00
Tampa Bay Devil Rays62Baltimore Orioles6919982005131394 3.01
Washington Nationals213San Diego Padres184196920053971197 3.02
St. Louis Cardinals234San Diego Padres163196920053971203 3.03
Los Angeles Dodgers363Houston Astros297196220056602000 3.03
Washington Nationals299Philadelphia Phillies317196920056161875 3.04
Philadelphia Phillies399New York Mets348196220057472286 3.06
San Diego Padres236Atlanta Braves301196920055371650 3.07
San Francisco Giants288New York Mets237196220055251614 3.07
Pittsburgh Pirates346New York Mets310196220056562017 3.07
New York Mets272Atlanta Braves328196220056001845 3.08
Washington Nationals264St. Louis Cardinals272196920055361654 3.09
Washington Nationals171Los Angeles Dodgers229196920054001236 3.09
San Diego Padres257Houston Astros285196920055421677 3.09
San Diego Padres295Los Angeles Dodgers323196920056181925 3.11
Chicago White Sox316Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim318196120056341980 3.12

Ah, those classic Marlins-Dodgers matchups! Hmmm. But perhaps my favorite is the classic Pirates-Brewers rivalry from the last seven seasons as each team tries to avoid the NL Central basement on an annual basis.

So what are the worst rivalries? Again, most of the worst are from the nineteenth century. Barring those:

Franchise 1WFranchise 2WFirstLastTot GTot Run Diff AvgRunDiff
Colorado Rockies59Arizona Diamondbacks7319982005132539 4.08
San Diego Padres96Colorado Rockies9719932005193774 4.01
Tampa Bay Devil Rays42New York Yankees8819982005130521 4.01
Washington Nationals50Colorado Rockies5819932005108426 3.94
Colorado Rockies54Cincinnati Reds6319932005117453 3.87
Colorado Rockies41Atlanta Braves7519932005116446 3.84
Colorado Rockies57Chicago Cubs6119932005118453 3.84
San Francisco Giants114Colorado Rockies7919932005193740 3.83
Pittsburgh Pirates59Colorado Rockies5719932005116440 3.79
Florida Marlins56Chicago Cubs5919932005115433 3.77
Seattle Mariners190Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim211197720054011500 3.74
Milwaukee Brewers63Cincinnati Reds6119982005124463 3.73
Kansas City Royals244Detroit Tigers218196920054621704 3.69
Tampa Bay Devil Rays44Boston Red Sox8819982005132483 3.66
Toronto Blue Jays159Minnesota Twins138197720052971080 3.64
St. Louis Cardinals58Colorado Rockies6219932005120436 3.63
Seattle Mariners179Minnesota Twins165197720053441249 3.63
Seattle Mariners142Detroit Tigers167197720053091115 3.61
Florida Marlins83Atlanta Braves11019932005193692 3.59
Oakland Athletics267Kansas City Royals218196920054851738 3.58
Houston Astros58Colorado Rockies5519932005113404 3.58
Toronto Blue Jays174New York Yankees218197720053921400 3.57
Florida Marlins59Colorado Rockies5919932005118421 3.57
Oakland Athletics864Cleveland Indians9941901200518586620 3.56

Not surprisingly a lot of Rockie combos top the list. Then there's Tampa Bay-Yankees—poor Lou Piniella.

So where does this leave us? Are there any real rivalries?

I offer that there rivalries of the moment, two teams that are close in talent and happen to be competing for the same goal. Maybe the 1987 Tigers/Blue Jays was the greatest rivalry of all time because they were both so good and they were competing for the title in the same division. Their rivalry is pretty much dead now because they are in separate divisions and both teams have had some poor to mediocre seasons the last bunch of years.

By the way, the Red Sox beat the Yankees by six runs tonight, 9-3. I feel redeemed. Familiarity might breed contempt but it does not ensure a potent on-field rivalry.

Rival Drivel
2006-06-07 10:09
by Mike Carminati

First, I criticize the overblown Yankee-Red Sox rivalry and then what happens next? The two teams play a classic game decided by Melky Cabrera's nab of a Manny B. Manny home run.

Oh well, quite like Artie Fufkin, I've got no timing. So "kick this ass…I'm not asking, I'm telling with this" (long live Tap).

Anyway, I thought it might be interesting to look at the closest season series of all time to see if what are considered the best rivalries percolate up to the top. Below are the twenty closest season series in terms of average margin of victory per game:

YearTeams 1 WTeam 2WTot GTot Run Diff Avg Run Diff
2004Houston Astros3Atlanta Braves367 1.17
1995Pittsburgh Pirates2Atlanta Braves467 1.17
1994Los Angeles Dodgers3Florida Marlins367 1.17
1981Kansas City Royals3Boston Red Sox367 1.17
1981Minnesota Twins4Chicago White Sox267 1.17
1995Texas Rangers1Baltimore Orioles456 1.20
1998Los Angeles Dodgers1Anaheim Angels345 1.25
2002New York Mets5Chicago Cubs168 1.33
2005Minnesota Twins4Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim61014 1.40
2005San Francisco Giants2Chicago Cubs5710 1.43
1997Houston Astros4Atlanta Braves71116 1.45
1984San Francisco Giants8New York Mets41218 1.50
2005Washington Nationals5Chicago Cubs169 1.50
2005Philadelphia Phillies4Chicago Cubs269 1.50
2001Montreal Expos3Chicago Cubs369 1.50
1981Philadelphia Phillies3Los Angeles Dodgers369 1.50
1981San Diego Padres3Chicago Cubs369 1.50
1982Toronto Blue Jays6Boston Red Sox71320 1.54
1987Toronto Blue Jays6Detroit Tigers71320 1.54
1978Kansas City Royals6Cleveland Indians51117 1.55

Now, here are the worst season series of all time. You'll note that they are all from the nineteenth century:

YearTeam 1WTeam 2WTot GTot Run Diff Avg Run Diff
1871Fort Wayne Kekiongas0Boston Red Stockings2242 21.00
1873Washington Blue Legs2Baltimore Marylands0241 20.50
1871Philadelphia Athletics2Fort Wayne Kekiongas0236 18.00
1872Washington Olympics0Baltimore Canaries2233 16.50
1872Washington Nationals0Baltimore Canaries3346 15.33
1875Washington Nationals0Philadelphia Athletics5576 15.20
1872Middletown Mansfields0Boston Red Stockings3344 14.67
1872Troy Haymakers2Brooklyn Atlantics0229 14.50
1875Washington Nationals0Boston Red Stockings6682 13.67
1872Boston Red Stockings3Brooklyn Eckfords0341 13.67
1873Elizabeth Resolutes1Boston Red Stockings4564 12.80
1875Philadelphia Athletics7Brooklyn Atlantics0789 12.71
1875Philadelphia Centennials1Philadelphia Athletics2337 12.33
1871Troy Haymakers3New York Mutuals1449 12.25
1872Troy Haymakers0Philadelphia Athletics2224 12.00
1872New York Mutuals2Cleveland Forest Citys1335 11.67
1871Washington Olympics2Fort Wayne Kekiongas1334 11.33
1875St. Louis Red Stockings0Chicago White Stockings4443 10.75
1872Brooklyn Atlantics1Baltimore Canaries5664 10.67
1872Troy Haymakers4Middletown Mansfields0442 10.50
1872New York Mutuals4Middletown Mansfields0442 10.50

Maybe we'll see more big-time rivalries if we filter out the shorter series. I reran with just those season series that consisted of at least ten games:

YearTeam 1WTeam 2WTot GTot Run Diff Avg Run Diff
2005Minnesota Twins4Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim61014 1.40
1997Houston Astros4Atlanta Braves71116 1.45
1984San Francisco Giants8New York Mets41218 1.50
1982Toronto Blue Jays6Boston Red Sox71320 1.54
1987Toronto Blue Jays6Detroit Tigers71320 1.54
1978Kansas City Royals6Cleveland Indians51117 1.55
1918Washington Senators7St. Louis Browns121930 1.58
1976Oakland Athletics7Milwaukee Brewers51219 1.58
1970San Diego Padres6New York Mets61219 1.58
1994San Diego Padres4Los Angeles Dodgers61016 1.60
1994Kansas City Royals7Chicago White Sox31016 1.60
1995Toronto Blue Jays5Chicago White Sox61118 1.64
1968Philadelphia Phillies8Los Angeles Dodgers101830 1.67
1968Oakland Athletics8New York Yankees101830 1.67
1976Los Angeles Dodgers9Chicago Cubs31220 1.67
1973Pittsburgh Pirates2Los Angeles Dodgers101220 1.67
1984San Diego Padres5Montreal Expos71220 1.67
1979St. Louis Cardinals6Houston Astros61220 1.67
1989Cleveland Indians7California Angels51220 1.67
1975Texas Rangers7Cleveland Indians51220 1.67
1978San Francisco Giants8Chicago Cubs41220 1.67
1985San Francisco Giants6Chicago Cubs61220 1.67
1969Washington Senators7California Angels51220 1.67
1982Pittsburgh Pirates7Los Angeles Dodgers51220 1.67
1984Oakland Athletics6California Angels71322 1.69

The 1987 Tigers/Blue Jays appearance is very interesting, but there are not a lot of rivalries that leap to mind in that list.

Here now are the most lopsided season series of at least ten games:

YearTeam 1WTeam 2WTot GTot Run Diff Avg Run Diff
1874Boston Red Stockings9Baltimore Canaries11086 8.60
1894Philadelphia Phillies8Louisville Colonels31194 8.55
1893Washington Senators4Philadelphia Phillies812101 8.42
1879Troy Trojans1Boston Red Caps1112101 8.42
1876Cincinnati Reds0Chicago White Stockings101084 8.40
1894Philadelphia Phillies5Cleveland Spiders712100 8.33
1897St. Louis Browns2Baltimore Orioles101296 8.00
1876Louisville Grays1Chicago White Stockings91079 7.90
1874Hartford Dark Blues1Boston Red Stockings91078 7.80
1884Philadelphia Quakers2Chicago White Stockings1416123 7.69
1897St. Louis Browns2Boston Beaneaters101292 7.67
1874Boston Red Stockings6Brooklyn Atlantics51183 7.55
1899Cleveland Spiders0Cincinnati Reds1414105 7.50
1894Cincinnati Reds2Baltimore Orioles101290 7.50
1886Louisville Colonels7Brooklyn Grays1320146 7.30
1883Philadelphia Quakers0Boston Beaneaters1414102 7.29
1890Pittsburgh Alleghenys2Philadelphia Phillies1719138 7.26
1896Louisville Colonels4Boston Beaneaters81287 7.25
1894Brooklyn Grooms4Baltimore Orioles81287 7.25
1894Cincinnati Reds4Boston Beaneaters81286 7.17

OK, for those of you not familiar with the game in the nineteenth century:

YearTeam 1WTeam 2WTot GTot Run Diff Avg Run Diff
1996New York Yankees6California Angels71388 6.77
1930Philadelphia Athletics15Cleveland Indians722142 6.45
1980New York Yankees4Kansas City Royals81277 6.42
1996California Angels6Baltimore Orioles61275 6.25
2000Kansas City Royals7Cleveland Indians51274 6.17
1993Minnesota Twins6Detroit Tigers61274 6.17
1994Texas Rangers1Seattle Mariners91061 6.10
1997San Francisco Giants8San Diego Padres41273 6.08
1969Chicago White Sox3Baltimore Orioles91273 6.08
2000Texas Rangers5Seattle Mariners71272 6.00
1999Texas Rangers6Anaheim Angels61272 6.00
1999San Francisco Giants3Arizona Diamondbacks91272 6.00
1999Oakland Athletics6Kansas City Royals61272 6.00
2000St. Louis Cardinals8Pittsburgh Pirates41271 5.92
1999Chicago White Sox5Boston Red Sox71271 5.92
1998Texas Rangers6Chicago White Sox51165 5.91
1935St. Louis Browns5Detroit Tigers1722130 5.91
1921New York Yankees14Cleveland Indians822129 5.86
1994Pittsburgh Pirates4Houston Astros81270 5.83
1936St. Louis Browns11Detroit Tigers1122128 5.82
1996Detroit Tigers3Chicago White Sox101375 5.77
1983Detroit Tigers8Baltimore Orioles51375 5.77
1938Washington Senators11Chicago White Sox1021121 5.76
1979Oakland Athletics3California Angels101374 5.69
1936St. Louis Browns8New York Yankees1422125 5.68

Next I want to look at the overall team-versus-team records to see if these bitter rivalries show themselves there.

Rivalry Much?
2006-06-05 22:29
by Mike Carminati

After putting the kids to bed, I turned on the old telly to check out the score of the Yankee-Red Sox game, and it was already 13-3 Yankees in the fourth inning. The Red Sox were already on their third pitcher, David Riske (pronounced risky), which seemed apropos. Josh Beckett lasted just 1-1/3 and gave up eight runs, though only 7 earned. Next, Jermaine Van Buren—he's the penultimate brother in the Van Buren Five after Martin—also last 1-1/3 and relinquished 5.

I was left wondering, is this really much of a rivalry? The score ended up 13-5, but that's nowhere near the most lopsided Yankee-Red Sox game this season. That honor goes to the 14-3 pasting the Sox laid on the Yanks on May 9.

In fact, on average in eight games this year, the two teams have been no closer than four and one half runs apart. The average margin of victory so far has been 4.625 runs.

So why is this rivalry so ridiculously hyped? Well, it does seem to sell.

Given the results so far this year, I wondered what was the greatest margin of victory for the series in any given year. Here's what I found:

YearRun DiffNum G Avg Run Diff
20059919 5.21
190310220 5.10
19788016 5.00
192710722 4.86
193210622 4.82
19866113 4.69
2006378 4.63
19956013 4.62
195910122 4.59
195010122 4.59
194010022 4.55
194110023 4.35
20005513 4.23
19239322 4.23
19349222 4.18
20037919 4.16
19017418 4.11
19379022 4.09
20047719 4.05
19208922 4.05
19984812 4.00

It seems that a lot of recent seasons are in that mix. What if we looked at the average run differential for all Yankee-Red Sox games per decade? Are the 2000s the worst?

Let's see…

DecadeRun DiffNum G Avg Run Diff
1900s685191 3.59
1910s616212 2.91
1920s823221 3.72
1930s806219 3.68
1940s745222 3.36
1950s778220 3.54
1960s563184 3.06
1970s566168 3.37
1980s394123 3.20
1990s408124 3.29
2000s453115 3.94
Total68371999 3.42

Wow, that's quite a job. Even the high-scoring Nineties did not see any sort of increase like we are seeing now in average margin of victory. But maybe it's happening in all games, nit just Yankee-Red Sox games.

Below is the average margin of victory for all games between all teams per decade:

DecadeRun DiffNum G Avg Run Diff
1870s115782031 5.70
1880s379728758 4.34
1890s407539468 4.30
1900s3780011342 3.33
1910s4120313324 3.09
1920s4287012323 3.48
1930s4421412311 3.59
1940s4142512376 3.35
1950s4166412374 3.37
1960s4964615961 3.11
1970s6275719806 3.17
1980s6575620337 3.23
1990s7388421594 3.42
2000s5157314573 3.54
Total643095186578 3.45

Yes, there has been a jump in margin of victory recently, but it's nowhere near what we are seeing in Boston-New York contests.

I submit that the Yankee-Red Sox rivalry has lost a bit of its old luster of late. Maybe they're just waiting for the playoffs. I'm a Phillies fan. I don't have that luxury.

One-Run Wonders, Part II
2006-06-04 22:36
by Mike Carminati
Part I

When I last left off, I proposed a theory that, while conventional wisdom holds that great teams win one-run ballgames with regularity, in the real world there is no proof that winning (or losing) one-run ballgames means a dang thing.

When I ran the numbers for team winning percentage in all games and in just one-run ballgames, I found that there was a slight correlation (.588) between the two [this is fpr all teams from 1871 to 2005]. So winning teams do tend to win one-run games. Maybe my theory is wrong, eh?

Well, wouldn't you expect that winning ballclubs win one-run games more often then losing teams? I mean, if you have a .600 winning percentage in all games and a .600 winning percent in one-run games, wouldn't that just mean that you were performing as expected. One would expect that the better teams annihilate the opponent in one-run games, right? Isn't that what conventional wisdom always told us?

Wouldn't a very good team have a great one-run record given that it is such a bellwether for winning teams? To check this, I ran team one-run records against the ratio of the teams winning percentages for one-run games to its overall winning percentage. One would expect that the best teams would outplay the opponents more in one-run games and therefore, would have a higher ratio. Losing teams would experience the opposite effect.

What I found, however, was that the reverse, if anything was true. There was a negative correlation (-.141), meaning that as the ratio went up, one-run winning percentage went down.

Next, I removed the one-run records altogether. I looked a team's record in all other games and compared that against its record in one-run games. One would expect that if winning one-run games was an actual skill possessed by the best teams, then it would carry through to its other games. But the results were even worse than against the overall record (.398).

Finally, someone suggested in the first post's comments that winning one-run games was a result of a team's overall run differential. So I compared a team's one-run record to the Pythagorean winning percentage. The correlation was just about the same as it was in the previous example (.439).

So I submit, and I think the facts bear me out, a team's record in one-run games is meaningless. Actually, it means something. It counts in the standings, but no one than its games won or lost by two runs, three runs, or 12 runs.

Now, since I love tables, I present below the best and worst teams in the various stats I derived from one-run records:

First is a comparison between the best teams, those either in first place or in the playoffs, those that won their league, and those that won the World Series. Wouldn't you expect the one-run records to improve as the teams improved given conventional wisdom? Well, it didn't:

YearTeam Name1-Run W1-Run L1-R G1-R PCTWLPCTRatioW >1-RL>1-RPCT>1-R
TotalAll First-Place/Playoff Teams9334713516469.5673501422037.614.9232568014902.633
AvgAll First-Place/Playoff Teams 24.56 18.78 43.34 .569 92.14 57.99 .614.927 67.58 39.22 .635
TotalLg Winners 6,125 4,553 10,678 .574 23,454 13,722 .631.909 17,329 9,169 .654
AvgLg Winners 24.31 18.07 42.37 .577 93.07 54.45 .631.915 68.77 36.38 .658
TotalWorld Series Winners 2,731 2,062 4,793 .570 10,239 6,117 .626.910 7,508 4,055 .649
AvgWorld Series Winners 25.76 19.45 45.22 .567 96.59 57.71 .623.910 70.83 38.25 .650

Now, here are the best records in one-run games among all teams:

YearTeam Name1-Run W1-Run L1-R G1-R PCTWLPCTRatioW >1-RL>1-RPCT>1-RPOSPlayoff/First?
1871Chicago White Stockings1011.000199.6791.474189.6672
1871Cleveland Forest Citys3031.0001019.3452.900719.2698
1871Troy Haymakers2021.0001315.4482.2311115.4236
1875Washington Nationals2021.000523.1795.600323.1159
1884St. Paul Apostles1011.00026.2224.50016.1439
1872Boston Red Stockings718.875398.8131.077327.8211Y
1883Cleveland Blues16319.8425542.5501.5313939.5004
1884Altoona Mountain City415.800619.2403.333218.10010
1890Brooklyn Bridegrooms14418.7788643.6671.1677239.6491Y
1875Boston Red Stockings729.778718.866.898646.9141Y
1883Philadelphia Athletics14418.7786632.6731.1555228.6501Y
1885St. Louis Browns18624.7507933.7051.0636127.6931Y
1890Louisville Colonels18624.7508844.6471.1597038.6481Y
1880Chicago White Stockings12416.7506717.779.9635513.8091Y
1875Philadelphia Athletics628.7505320.6881.0904718.7232
1981Baltimore Orioles21728.7505946.5621.3353839.4942

Given that most of these teams are from the nineteenth century, here are the best from 1900 on:

YearTeam Name1-Run W1-Run L1-R G1-R PCTWLPCTRatioW >1-RL>1-RPCT>1-RPOSPlayoff/First?
1981Baltimore Orioles21728.7505946.5621.3353839.4942
1908Pittsburgh Pirates331245.7339856.6321.1606544.5962
1970Baltimore Orioles401555.72710854.6671.0916839.6361Y
1909Pittsburgh Pirates341347.72311042.7141.0137629.7241Y
1954Cleveland Indians321345.71111143.712.9997930.7251Y
1913Washington Senators321345.7119064.5811.2255851.5322
1925Washington Senators271138.7119655.6321.1256944.6111Y
1961Cincinnati Reds341448.7089361.6041.1735947.5571Y
1980Kansas City Royals291241.7079765.5991.1816853.5621Y
1940Cincinnati Reds411758.70710053.6451.0965936.6211Y
1986Boston Red Sox241034.7069566.5901.1967156.5591Y
1977Kansas City Royals311344.70510260.6301.1197147.6021Y
2003San Francisco Giants281240.70010061.6211.1277249.5951Y
1959Chicago White Sox351550.7009460.6031.1625945.5671Y
1907Chicago Cubs371653.69810745.6901.0117029.7071Y
1985California Angels301343.6989072.5561.2566059.5042
1928Philadelphia Athletics301343.6989855.6411.0896842.6182
1981Cincinnati Reds231033.6976642.6111.1404332.5731Y
2002Oakland Athletics321446.69610359.6361.0947145.6121Y
1912New York Giants321446.69610348.6691.0407134.6761Y

Here are the worst one-run teams all time:

YearTeam Name1-Run W1-Run L1-R G1-R PCTWLPCTRatioW >1-RL>1-RPCT>1-RPOSPlayoff/First?
1872Troy Haymakers011.0001510.600.000159.6255
1875Philadelphia Centennials011.000212.143.000211.15411
1884Milwaukee Brewers011.00084.667.00083.7272
1872Cleveland Forest Citys022.000616.273.000614.3006
1875St. Louis Red Stockings022.000415.211.000413.2358
1875Keokuk Westerns033.000112.077.00019.10012
1875New Haven Elm Citys189.111740.149.746632.15810
1874Hartford Dark Blues178.1251637.302.4141530.3337
1878Milwaukee Grays31518.1671545.246.6781230.2866
1886Washington Nationals52530.1672892.224.7442367.2568
1935Boston Braves73138.18438115.248.7423184.2708
1871Rockford Forest Citys145.200421.1601.250317.1509
1873Washington Blue Legs145.200831.205.975727.2067
1891Milwaukee Brewers145.2002115.583.3432011.6453
1883Philadelphia Quakers31215.2001781.1721.1651469.1698

And the worst since 1900:

YearTeam Name1-Run W1-Run L1-R G1-R PCTWLPCTRatioW >1-RL>1-RPCT>1-RPOSPlayoff/First?
1935Boston Braves73138.18438115.248.7423184.2708
1937St. Louis Browns103141.24446108.295.8273677.3198
1999Kansas City Royals113243.2566497.398.6445365.4494
1916Philadelphia Athletics113243.25636117.2341.0942585.2278
1936Philadelphia Phillies123446.26154100.351.7444266.3898
1952Pittsburgh Pirates133548.27142112.2711.0002977.2748
1953New York Giants92433.2737084.452.6046160.5045
1937Cincinnati Reds143650.2805698.361.7754262.4048
1919Washington Senators143650.2805684.394.7104248.4677
1913Brooklyn Superbas143650.2806584.428.6555148.5156
1975Houston Astros164157.2816497.395.7114856.4626
1966New York Yankees153853.2837089.438.6475551.51910
1981San Diego Padres123042.2864169.373.7672939.4266
1985Texas Rangers112738.2896299.385.7525172.4157
1912Brooklyn Dodgers163854.2965895.379.7824257.4247
1959Washington Senators112637.2976391.409.7275265.4448
1933Boston Red Sox143347.2986386.423.7044953.4807
1913St. Louis Browns143347.2985796.368.8104363.4068
1992Los Angeles Dodgers174057.2986399.389.7674659.4386
1986Pittsburgh Pirates163753.3026498.395.7644861.4406
1906St. Louis Cardinals133043.3025298.338.8953968.3647
2004Detroit Tigers122739.3087290.444.6926063.4884
1973Minnesota Twins122739.3088181.500.6156954.5613
1940Philadelphia Phillies122739.30850103.327.9423876.3338
1946Philadelphia Athletics132942.31049105.316.9793676.3218

Here are the only teams not to play in a one-run game:

YearTeam Name1-Run W1-Run L1-R G1-R PCTWLPCTRatioW >1-RL>1-RPCT>1-RPOSPlayoff/First?
1871Fort Wayne Kekiongas000.000712.368.000712.3687
1872Middletown Mansfields000.000519.208.000519.2089
1872Washington Olympics000.00027.222.00027.2228
1872Washington Nationals000.000011.000- 11.00011
1873Baltimore Marylands000.00006.000- 6.0009
1873Elizabeth Resolutes000.000221.087.000221.0878

Best ratios:

YearTeam Name1-Run W1-Run L1-R G1-R PCTWLPCTRatioW >1-RL>1-RPCT>1-RPOSPlayoff/First?
1875Washington Nationals2021.000523.1795.600323.1159
1875Brooklyn Atlantics134.250242.0455.500139.02513
1884St. Paul Apostles1011.00026.2224.50016.1439
1884Wilmington Quicksteps224.500216.1114.500 14.00012
1884Altoona Mountain City415.800619.2403.333218.10010
1872Brooklyn Eckfords123.333326.1033.222224.07710
1871Cleveland Forest Citys3031.0001019.3452.900719.2698
1874Baltimore Canaries224.500938.1912.611736.1638
1876Cincinnati Reds246.333956.1382.407752.1198
1882Baltimore Orioles8513.6151954.2572.3971149.1836

Best ratio since 1900:

YearTeam Name1-Run W1-Run L1-R G1-R PCTWLPCTRatioW >1-RL>1-RPCT>1-RPOSPlayoff/First?
2003Detroit Tigers191837.51443119.2651.93524101.1925
1974San Diego Padres311647.66060102.3701.7812986.2526
1939Philadelphia Phillies252550.50045106.2961.6892081.1988
1921Philadelphia Phillies252045.55651103.3311.6782683.2398
1903St. Louis Cardinals201939.5134394.3091.6582375.2358
1955Kansas City Athletics301545.6676391.4061.6403376.3036
1942Philadelphia Phillies232952.44242109.2781.5901980.1928
1998Florida Marlins312960.51754108.3331.5502379.2255
1911Boston Rustlers172239.43644107.2821.5452785.2418
1910St. Louis Browns222648.45847107.2971.5412581.2368
1961Kansas City Athletics231740.57561100.3771.5273883.31410
1948Chicago White Sox222244.50051101.3311.5102979.2698

Worst ratios:

YearTeam Name1-Run W1-Run L1-R G1-R PCTWLPCTRatioW >1-RL>1-RPCT>1-RPOSPlayoff/First?
1884Milwaukee Brewers011.00084.667.00083.7272
1875Keokuk Westerns033.000112.077.00019.10012
1875Philadelphia Centennials011.000212.143.000211.15411
1875St. Louis Red Stockings022.000415.211.000413.2358
1872Cleveland Forest Citys022.000616.273.000614.3006
1872Troy Haymakers011.0001510.600.000159.6255
1891Milwaukee Brewers145.2002115.583.3432011.6453
1871Boston Red Stockings134.2502010.645.388197.7313
1874Hartford Dark Blues178.1251637.302.4141530.3337
1872Baltimore Canaries134.2503519.603.4143416.6803

Worst ratios since 1900:

YearTeam Name1-Run W1-Run L1-R G1-R PCTWLPCTRatioW >1-RL>1-RPCT>1-RPOSPlayoff/First?
1948Cleveland Indians102030.3339758.622.5368738.6961Y
1935New York Yankees152944.3418960.597.5717431.7052
1963Minnesota Twins132639.3339170.565.5907844.6393
1953New York Giants92433.2737084.452.6046160.5045
1973Minnesota Twins122739.3088181.500.6156954.5613
2002Boston Red Sox132336.3619369.574.6298046.6352
1929New York Giants152843.3498467.553.6316939.6393
1999Kansas City Royals113243.2566497.398.6445365.4494
1966New York Yankees153853.2837089.438.6475551.51910
2003Atlanta Braves172542.40510161.623.6498436.7001Y
1938Cincinnati Reds162945.3568268.543.6556639.6294
1913Brooklyn Superbas143650.2806584.428.6555148.5156
1981New York Yankees122133.3645948.551.6594727.6353Y
2005Cleveland Indians223658.3799369.574.6617133.6832
1980Milwaukee Brewers122234.3538676.531.6657454.5783
1989Boston Red Sox132538.3428379.512.6687054.5653
1994Philadelphia Phillies122638.3165461.470.6734235.5454

Finally, to address Bill James' complaint with one-run records, a team's tendency from year to year, I ran the numbers for all franchises. Teams that had a winning record in one-run games continued to win one-run games the next season just 10% of the time. Teams with losing records continued to lose about 8% of the time. Compare that to the tendency of winning teams (overall record) to continue to win the next season, which is 42%. The losing trend is 39%. Bill, as usual, is right. There is no skill that a team possesses to win these close games. It's just luck.

Tendency from yr to yr per tm1-Run GsOverall
>.500<.500>.500<.500
11185500436
1079107511901126
10.29%7.91%42.02%38.72%
One-Run Wonders (Or is it Oneders?)
2006-06-02 22:22
by Mike Carminati
Long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead.
—John Maynard Keynes

In his controversial, recent SABR article "Underestimating the Fog", Bill James lists among the "supposed 'skills' of baseball players [that] were actually just random manifestations of luck" a good team's ability to win one-run games, something that has been viewed as a necessity for the upper echelon clubs:

"Winning or losing close games is luck. Teams which win more one-run games than they should one year have little tendency to do so the next year."

I think there's more to the validity of such a purported baseball skill then just whether a team retains the skill from year to year. There should also be a tendency for good clubs to win these close games. Isn't that the assumed value of such a breakdown? The old saw goes that the better teams are the ones that execute the plays needed to win close ballgames, right?

I bring this up because the Phils lost a close ballgame to the Nats the other day (3-2) to fall to 7-11 in one-run games. Compare that to division-leading New York's 16-6. Remove the one-run ballgames from the standings, and the Phils (20-15 without 1-run games) would be 2-1/2 games ahead of the Mets (16-14), rather than 5-1/2 behind them. Of course, the would both be behind the Braves (10-14 in 1-run games, 18-12 without them).

The putative pundits would say that the Mets are simply a better team and, therefore, win those close ballgames. So to them should go the laurels, etc.

However, what if they have it backwards? What if being a good team does not necessarily mean that you win one-run games, but rather winning one-run games helps your winning percentage and thereby makes you a better team? Or to put it more precisely in Jamesian terms, what if winning one-run ballgames is more a matter of luck rather than skill?

To be continued…

This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
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