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Monthly archives: July 2007

 

What a Lohse-er
2007-07-31 09:21
by Mike Carminati

What ever happened to Stand Pat Gillick!?!

Kyle Lohse? For who? For what?

Lohse is at best a tail-end starter who can hold a spot in a major-league rotation. He has a 60-74 career record with a 4.83 ERA (or 95 ERA+). That means his ERA is 5% worse than the park-adjusted league average.

That's at his best. At his worst, he's… Adam Eaton! I wonder what that guy is doing now.

Overall, he is an upgrade over Paul Abbott, their midseason pickup from three seasons ago (1-6 with a 6.24 ERA with the Phils in 2004). He's better than his 6-12 record so far this year in Cincy but probably worse than his league average 4.58 ERA.

Where does he fit into this dysfunctional staff? God only knows. Ostensibly, he replaces rookie J.D. Durbin in the rotation, but he is by no means an upgrade over Durbin. Durbin has done a yeoman's job after being recalled from the minors to plug the gaps when Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia went down. He is 3-1 with a 4.38 ERA in four starts and 3-2, 4.30 overall in seven appearances.

Those are not spectacular numbers especially when one considers that he has walked 17 and struck out only 18 in 29.1 innings. In fact overall Durbin and Lohse have similar numbers. Durbin's park-adjusted ERA is 104; Lohse's is 101. Both strike out about five and one half men per nine innings pitched (Lohse, 5.47 and Durbin, 5.52). The biggest difference is in the walk ratio, but I prefer to give Durbin the benefit of the doubt given the small sample size.

All that said, let's say that Lohse is a slight upgrade over Durbin given his experience—7 major-league years plus four postseason series—, the walks, and the established (though slightly sub-par) track record. But why bother? Especially, when a good-looking young arm (Matt Maloney) is sacrificed in the process.

This is hardly Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz. Lohse is no Alexander and then again, Maloney may not be a Smoltz, but he looks pretty good so far. He was 16-9 with a 2.08 ERA in High Single A last year when he was picked as the most outstanding (or some other senior superlative) pitcher in the Sally league. He was promoted to Double-A Reading this season and had been unspectacular (9-7, 3.94 ERA), but has struck out 115 in 125.2. He has been bitten by the homer bug (13 in 125.2 innings), but that might be a Reading aberration given that he never displayed a tendency to give up the long ball in his previous two seasons. I would bet on any 23-year-old pitcher who strikes out a man an inning any day (he has a 9.00 strikeouts per 9 inning ratio in his pro career).

Given that Hamels and possibly Kendrick are the only men who project to be in the Phils' rotation next season, the Phils need decent young arms. I would expect Maolney to be ready for the rotation by mid-2008.

The argument for trading Maloney is that the Phils are in a playoff chase now and can worry about 2008 in December. That's valid to a certain degree, but I would prefer trading a decent prospect to fill a need.

Lohse fills none of the Phils immediate needs. Their biggest need may be to replace Ryan Madson as an innings eater in mid relief. The rest of the bullpen is, as always, a concern. The lack of a starting third baseman has been a sore spot all year. And with Voctorino and Bourne out for a few days, they need a right fielder (though Roberson will probably be recalled).

Yes, the rotation is a concern given that it contained two inexperienced arms (Kendrick and Durbin), an aging star (Moyer), an under-achieving perennial number five starter (Eaton), and a staff ace with just a year and one half under his belt (Hamels). But Lohse is not the answer.

So the Phils have traded two young arms who strike out almost a man an inning and potentially could be ready for the majors with a year or two to rent Tad Iguchi for a month while Chase Utley rehabilitates and for Lohse. Iguchi was traded for pitching coach Rich Dubee's son Michael earlier this month. He was 4-4 with a 3.88 ERA and has a 8.73 K per 9IP ratio (7.57 overall in his pro career). The best thing that can be said for him is that maybe his father may follow him to Chicago next year.

So the Phils have addressed just one need this season and it was short-term one (the immediate need to replace Utley for one month). Their problems were apparent ever before camp opened, and yet somehow this team continues to win. They have won nine of ten, and will probably start Greg Dobbs, who has played five games there (and twenty in total in the outfield) in his career, in right field.

I just keep telling myself that this team is no worse than the Cardinals were last year, and eh, who knows? It's not much to look forward to, but that's all you get as a Phils fan.

It's the Big One, Elizabeth, Pt. 2
2007-07-30 09:09
by Mike Carminati

More on yesterday's historic Padres-Astros game:

Tim Stauffer in his first start becomes one of five pitchers in recorded history to have his team score ten or more runs in the first and not get credit for the win. He is one of two to have an 11-run lead before his first pitch and yet not pick up a win (Joe Gibbon in 1967 being the other).

Here are all five games:

DateVisitorRHomeR1st Inn Visitor R1st Inn Home RWinnerVisitor StarterHome Starter
20060823CLE15KCA13110Rafael BetancourtPaul ByrdJorge de la Rosa
19670629SFN12SLN4112Bobby BolinJoe GibbonBob Gibson
19800427OAK11MIN20010Doug CorbettBrian KingmanGeoff Zahn
19890608PIT11PHI15102Don CarmanBob WalkLarry McWilliams
20070729SDG18HOU11110Doug BrocailTim StaufferJason Jennings

Two of those five games were actually converted to losses: Cleveland came back last season after a 10-run KC first to win 15-13, and the Phils beat Pittsburgh 15-11 after a ten-run Pirate first.

Here is a quick run-down of those doomed starters:

On August 23, 2006, Jorge De La Rosa had a 10-1 lead after one but could only last 3.1 innings. He existed leading 10-4 but was also responsible for two more runners who scored. Overall, he allowed six runs on six hits, 3 of which are homers, and one walk.

On June 29, 1967, Bob Gibson lasted just 2/3 of an inning allowing 9 runs, all earned, on 7 hits and two walks (and a game score of 1(!)). Joe Gibbon—no relation—the Giant starter, had a 10-run lead before he threw a pitch, but left the game without retiring a batter. He allowed a triple to Lou Brock and three straight singles and was replaced by Bobby Bolin, who got out of the inning without allowing further damage. Bolin earned the win, allowing two runs through nine innings.

On April 27, 1980, Twin starting pitcher Geoff Zahn lasted 4.1 allowing 8 runs on 14 hits and 2 walks after a 10-run Minnesota first. Reliever Doug Corbett picks up the win in a 20-11 wild one.

On June 8, 1989, the Phillies make history by beating ex-Phil Bob Walk, 15-11, after allowing ten Pittsburgh runs in the first. Walk lasted 3.2 innings, allowing 5 H, 6 R (all earned), 4 BB, 2 K, and 3 HR. Von Hayes homers twice, with four RBI, against Walk, but the star is a player who did not even start the game.

Improbably, Steve Jeltz hist two of his five career home runs, one from each side of the plate, and collects five RBI, almost doubling his season total to that point (11)—he finishes the season with just 25. His first home run came with two outs in the fourth, cutting the lead to 10-6 and chasing Walk from the game. It was his first career home run off a right-hander. He'll pick up one more in his career, off of Scott Sanderson. The second home run, was off Walk's replacement, Bob Kipper, bringing the Phils within one (11-10). It is the final home run Jeltz will hit in his career from the right side. His success might be due to his not being in the game at the time of the ten-run Pirate first inning. He replaced starting second baseman, Tommy Herr, after the first.

With the Astros scoring 7 in the fourth, the game also becomes one of a handful of games in which opponents have scored a total of 18 runs in total between their two best half innings. There are seven other instances where teams scored more, the most coming when the Phils score 8 in the eighth after the Cubs scored 14 in the fourth en route to a 26-23 win on August 25, 1922. There are 51 hits, 23 walks, and 10 errors in the game. The Phils leave the bases loaded for a total of 16 LOB on the game.

Here are the other games that make the list:

DateG#VisitorRHomeRTot Max RVT Max InnHT Max Inn
192208250PHI23CHN262288144
199604190BAL7TEX262154168
193306030PHA11NYA1721113105
193004290BRO19NY1152011293
200607220BAL12TBA131997105
197704100CLE19BOS91913868
195306180DET3BOS231924177
200707290SDG18HOU111811174
200506210TBA11NYA201852138
200504180TBA8NYA191855132
200405080DET15TEX161884105
200306270FLO8BOS251845141
199705120CHA8ANA161851137
199405310PIT5SDN151857132
197209200HOU6ATL131856132
194409042NY18PHI141883108

The Padres-Astros also played just the seventh game in recorded history in which each team scored at least seven runs in a half inning:

DateG#VisitorRHomeRTot Max RVT Max InnHT Max Inn
192208250PHI23CHN262288144
193306030PHA11NYA1721113105
193004290BRO19NY1152011293
200607220BAL12TBA131997105
194409042NY18PHI141883108
200405080DET15TEX161885105
200707290SDG18HOU111811174

As far as the biggest scoring inning for both teams, the Padres-Astros don't make the list. The most was 19 by the Indians and Red Sox in 1977. In the eighth inning of a 3-3 tie ballgame on April 10, the two teams score 19 total runs, 13 by Cleveland and 6 by the Sox. The Indians tack on three more for 19-9 win. Cleveland goes through four relievers in the eighth after pulling starter Reggie Cleveland. The winner, Dave LaRoche, gets pulled after allowing a single, walk, wild pitch, and a walk. He ends up with a third of inning pitched and three runs allowed and an 11.57 ERA to go with his win:

DateG#VisitorRHomeRInningVT RHT RMax Tot R
197704100CLE19BOS9813619
200405080DET15TEX16581018
195306180DET3BOS23701717
191206200NY121BSN12971017
199607050CAL8OAK16131316
199604190BAL7TEX26801616
198608030NYA12CLE8510616
194807040PHA5BOS19721416
200306270FLO8BOS25111415
199908310ANA12CLE14851015
199904290DET6SEA22541115
199609220OAK13SEA1158715
198407200TOR12SEA7911415
197906120CIN6NYN12651015
196706130DET15MIN10610515
195304160PHI12PIT1459615
195205210CIN1BRO19101515
194906120CIN7BRO20551015
193305270CHA11NYA15831215
192208250PHI23CHN26411415
191209051PHA19NYA9610515
It's the Big One, Elizabeth
2007-07-29 21:19
by Mike Carminati

Imagine starting your first game in the majors and being staked to an eleven-run lead before ever throwing a pitch. Now, imagine not getting the win.

I'm sure that Tim Stauffer never imagined that he would be in that position, and yet today he was.

The Padres staked Stauffer, who was called up yesterday, to an 11-0 lead in the first inning in Houston aided by two-run homers by Mike Cameron and Adrian Gonzalez. Stauffer even got his first major-league hit, a two-single that made the score 5-0, before he faced his first batter. The eleven runs tied for second all-time for runs in the first inning by a visiting team.

And yet, the road to Stauffer's historic first win in the majors was blocked by seven-run Astro fourth inning, and the win ended up going to forty-year-old reliever Doug Brocail.

The biggest first inning for a visiting team was on August 29, 1937 when the Philly A's went into Comiskey and scored 12 in the first inning of the first game of a double header. Bob Johnson drives in six on a two-run double and a grand slam in the first and goes 5-for-6 on the day. The A's prevail 16-0.

DateDH G#VisitorRHomeR1st Inn Visitor R1st Inn Home R
193708291PHA16CHA0120
200707290SDG18HOU11110
199506290CAL20TEX4111
198207150DET18MIN2110
196706290SFN12SLN4112
193608251BSN20SLN3110
190905300SLN12CIN2110
200609230DET15KCA4100
200505060LAN13CIN6100
200205020SEA15CHA4100
199406210BOS13TOR1100
198906080PIT11PHI15102
198007100NYA13TEX5100
196405010CHN11HOU3101
195306122MLN11PIT2100
194709012CIN13CHN2100
192907062SLN28PHI6102

The record for first-inning runs is a bit higher, however. On May 21, 2952, 19 straight Dodgers reach base, a major-league record—that's batting around twice plus one for good measure without an out—with one out in the first against Ewell Blackwell and the Reds and scored 15 runs en route to a 19-1 route. Pee Wee Reese reaches safely three times in the streak. The last two outs come on a caught stealing at third (Andy Pafko) and a Duke Snider strikeout. Brooklyn pitcher Chris Van Cuyk leads all batters with four hits. And Snider makes up for the first-inning K with a two-run homer while Bobby Morgan has two.

Seven home-teams have exceeded the visitors first-inning record:

DateDH G#VisitorRHomeR1st Inn Visitor R1st Inn Home R
195205210CIN1BRO19015
195006182PHA2CLE21014
198908030HOU2CIN18014
200306270FLO8BOS25114
191105130SLN5NY119013
199308240SLN4SDN17013
199607050CAL8OAK16313
Runs Amok II
2007-07-26 09:01
by Mike Carminati

So apparently they added another game to the Royals-Yankees series. Of course, when I reported that the Yankees swept KC, it was still just a three-game series.

Anyway, to cover up for my screw-up, I have more fun facts from the world of high scoring. New York beat up on Tampa Bay so badly they registered one of the highest run totals by one team in a four-game series in the "modern era". There were only ten other four-game series since 1900 in which one team beat the Yanks 49 runs from the D-Rays series:

YrTmDate FromDate ToH/AOppRRAGame WGame L
1936NYA1936052319360525APHA591931
1939NYA1939081119390813APHA572131
1922PIT1922080719220810APHI572540
1928PIT1928080219280804APHI572240
1911CIN1911060219110605HBSN551731
1996COL1996062719960630HLAN523331
1930PHA1930071619300719ACHA502631
1910NYG1910093019101004ABSN502440
1937DET1937081319370815HSLA502331
2000COL2000062620000629HSFN503531
1932PHI1932073019320802HPIT491840
2007NYY2007072020070722HTBA492631

Oddly, just four of those twelve series were sweeps. Now, here is the all-time list. I can't resist a list that is led by a Players League team, Buffalo in this instance, and it is properly peppered Union Association representatives:

YrTmLgDate FromDate ToH/AOppRRAGame WGame L
1890BFPPL1890041918900424HCLP753240
1887SL4AA1887042718870501HCL3743840
1883BSNNL1883060818830612HDTN702340
1894PHINL1894081418940817HLS3672431
1883CHNNL1883090418830908HDTN651640
1883PH4AA1883072818830801HPT1632040
1885CHNNL1885062718850701HBSN633740
1888PH4AA1888042318880426HCL3612831
1884BLUUA1884071418840719HKCU592440
1887NY1NL1887051618870519HIN3593531
1889KC2AA1889050318890506HSL4593531
1936NYAAL1936052319360525APHA591931
1883BFNNL1883071718830721HPHI582231
1891BL3AA1891042718910430HWS9582940
1887BL2AA1887042718870502HNY4582140
1884SLUUA1884043018840505AALT571240
1894BSNNL1894081818940822HCIN573731
1939NYAAL1939081119390813APHA572131
1928PITNL1928080219280804APHI572240
1922PITNL1922080719220810APHI572540
1884PHUUA1884070718840712HKCU571940
1889BR3AA1889052018890523AKC2564131
1883CHNNL1883062918830703HBFN562440
1884CHNNL1884090818840913APHI552040
1884BSUUA1884070218840705HKCU551940
1911CINNL1911060219110605HBSN551731

I would remise if I didn't point out that the Blue Jays beat the Twins 13-1 to tie them in the wild card standings at one game above .500. The score itself was not that remarkable, but the fact that Toronto scored 11 of those runs in the sixth inning. That made me wonder how often a team scored double-digit runs in one inning and then was kept virtually scoreless the rest of the game. It turns out that it is not that rare. Toronto becomes the 126th team to score ten or more runs in an inning but two or fewer runs over the rest of the game.

There have been 25 games in which a team has been shut out aside from a double-digit inning. The last was Phillies last year, who beat the Marlins 10-2 by scoring all of their runs in the ninth. They broke up a 2-0 shutout by Dontrelle Willis and denied him his 22nd win, which he finally picked up five days later. The first ten Phils batters in the ninth reached base. They were aided by four ninth-inning errors by Florida (their most ever in an inning) to go with their eight hits, all singles, and one walk. Four of the ninth inning runs were unearned. Todd Jones relieved Willis after a Luis Castillo error loaded the bases with none out. Jones had a streak of 28 chances without a blown save broken while recording no outs and allowing five runs, four earned, and four hits on just nine pitches and he threw away a Chase Utley bunt attempt for one of the four errors, allowing the go-ahead run.

The game is one of three in baseball history in which a shut-out team grabbed the lead in the ninth with a double-digit runs in the ninth. The other two were when the White Sox beat the Indians, 10-2, on August 15, 1962 after trailing 1-0 through eight innings and when the Reds lost to the Cubs, 11-10, on September 26, 1912.

The Reds trailed 9-0 after eight innings and then scored ten runs to pull ahead, 10-9, but eventually succumbed after two runs in the bottom of the ninth. The scoring came almost exclusively on walks. Starter Jimmy Lavender absorbed five runs before he was lifted in favor of Fred Toney. Toney, with the bases loaded, goes on to walk the only three batters he faced before being replaced by Larry Chaney, who walked two straight to give the Reds a 10-9 lead. The Reds catch the base on balls fever as Ralph Works walks a batter and then hits another to lead off the bottom of the ninth. Rube Benton then relieves him and walks three straight to give the Cubs an 11-10 win. The Cubs then shut the Reds out 10-0 in the second game of the double header that day.

Here are the other teams that scored ten or more runs in an inning and were shut out the rest of the game:

DateDH G#Visiting teamRHome teamR10-Run InningVisitors R Home R
200509170PHI10FLO29100
200309230SFN10HOU32100
200304130PHI13CIN14130
200209060CHN2SLN113011
199708270CLE10ANA44100
199508020SFN3SDN118011
199206280MIN10OAK24100
198907270SFN1ATL106010
197406110PHI1HOU107010
197209200HOU6ATL132013
197207150PHI11SFN47110
197205091MIL2OAK104010
196907081NYA3BAL104010
196806091SLN10CIN85100
196404150MLN8SFN103010
196208151CHA10CLE29101
195909022DET4CHA115111
195407060BAL3CLE111011
194307020NYA0CLE124012
194209071SLN6PIT116211
194108060DET11CLE23110
194008291SLA3NYA105010
193306030PHA11NYA173111
192509121SLA10CHA44100
191209261CIN10CHN119102

In other news, Tom Glavine won his 299th game. After his next win, baseball will have three active 300-game winners for the first time in twenty years and just the seventh time in baseball history. Roger Clemens (351) and Greg Maddux (340) are already there. Here are all the seasons with three or more active 300-game winners:

Yr#
18914
18924
19864
18903
19873
19853
20073

These are the pitchers for each of those seasons with their win total as of the end of the given season:

YrNameW
1891Charley Radbourn309
1891Mickey Welch307
1891Pud Galvin354
1891Tim Keefe313
1892John Clarkson304
1892Mickey Welch307
1892Pud Galvin364
1892Tim Keefe332
1890Mickey Welch302
1890Pud Galvin340
1890Tim Keefe308
1985Phil Niekro300
1985Steve Carlton314
1985Tom Seaver304
1986Don Sutton310
1986Phil Niekro311
1986Steve Carlton323
1986Tom Seaver311
1987Don Sutton321
1987Phil Niekro318
1987Steve Carlton329

If all four stay active next season and Randy Johnson (284 wins) should some reach the milestone, that would give us four for the second time since 1892 (1986 being the other). This comes after baseball had no active 300-game winners from 1994 after Nolan Ryan retired until 2003 when Roger Clemens reached the milestone. At the time the prevailing theory was that 300-game winners were close to being extinct.

Finally, the Phils rode Ryan Howard's 28th home run, walkoff dinger, to a 7-5 win in fourteen innings. The eighth Phillies pitcher, Clay Condrey got the win, his fourth on the year without a loss. If the season ended today, Condrey would have the third highest ERA (6.29) for an unbeaten pitcher with at least four wins:
PitcherYrWL ERA
Omar Daal199540 7.20
Bob Veale197160 6.99
Jason Bere199950 6.08
Johnny Klippstein195940 5.91
Amaury Telemaco199940 5.77
Pete Appleton194040 5.62
Randy Wolf200640 5.56
Curt Leskanic199740 5.55
Ted Wilks194740 5.01

But it's not the end of the season. Condrey projects to six wins for the year. If he ends up 6-0 with his current ERA, he would be just the second unbeaten pitcher in baseball history to win at least six games while recording a 6.00+ ERA. Here are the highest ERAs with at least five wins:

PitcherYrWL ERA
Bob Veale197160 6.99
Jason Bere199950 6.08
Jim Abbott199850 4.55
Bill Connelly195250 4.55
Charlie Hickman189960 4.48
Odell Jones198850 4.35
Allyn Stout193160 4.21
Jim Corsi199660 4.03
Howie Krist1941100 4.03
Mike DeJean199750 3.99
Runs Amok
2007-07-25 22:19
by Mike Carminati

The Yankees continued their offensive ways again tonight beating the Royals, 7-1, behind Mike Mussina thereby completing a three-game sweep of KC and outscoring them 25-7. The Yanks now have 63 runs in their last five games.

The all-time record for runs in five consecutive games was 116 or over 23 per game by the first Philly A's in 1871 (by game: 20, 49, 5, 20, and 22). Of course, the top bunch of teams on the list (actually, 69) are from the run-happy nineteenth century. The most since 1900 was 82 by the 1950 Red Sox. 26 teams, including the 2006 Braves, scored more than 63 in five consecutive games.

Here are the most all time:

TmYrDate 1Date 55-G R
Philadelphia Athletics18711871062618710704116
Philadelphia Athletics18711871062818710714105
Philadelphia Athletics18721872050118720520104
Philadelphia Athletics18711871062118710701104
Boston Red Stockings18731873100918731017102
Philadelphia Athletics18721872051318720529102
Boston Red Stockings1873187310111873102298
Troy Haymakers1872187204271872050898
Boston Red Stockings1871187107101871080798
Chicago White Stockings1876187607181876072797
Chicago White Stockings1876187607201876072997
Philadelphia Athletics1871187106171871062896

And now since 1900:

TmYr5-G RG1G2G3G4G5FromTo
Boston Red Sox19508217124202906/0406/08
Boston Red Sox1950721242029706/0506/09
Chicago Cubs193072161518101306/0106/06
New York Yankees193069141011171706/1206/17
Boston Red Sox195068420297806/0606/10
New York Yankees1936689121525705/2105/25
New York Giants19126821517141106/2006/24
Pittsburgh Pirates190168101515151309/0409/06
Pittsburgh Pirates190167121015151509/0409/06
Boston Red Sox195066202978206/0706/11
Pittsburgh Pirates1922669171971408/0508/10
Atlanta Braves200665151110151407/1407/18
Boston Red Sox1940651645241609/2409/28
Chicago Cubs19306561615181005/3106/05
Chicago Cubs19306515181013906/0306/07
New York Yankees1927652178101907/0407/09
Cleveland Indians1923651052781507/0507/08
Boston Red Sox19506411171242006/0306/07
Chicago White Sox1936649167211107/1607/19
New York Yankees1936643912152505/2005/24
Washington Senators19356416111791106/1406/19
Chicago Cubs1930649616151805/3006/04
Pittsburgh Pirates192564829212406/1706/22
Pittsburgh Pirates192564921243706/1906/24
Pittsburgh Pirates1922641719714708/0708/11
New York Giants1912641381422706/0106/07
New York Yankees200763172199707/2107/25
Chicago White Sox19966320211161405/1505/19
Chicago White Sox1936631672111807/1707/19
New York Yankees1936631215257405/2305/26
New York Yankees19316322712121007/2607/29
New York Yankees19306316137131406/2506/28
New York Giants1912636215171406/1906/22
Brooklyn Superbas1900638201215806/2106/26
Philadelphia Phillies19006319141171204/2805/04
Further Yankee Doodles
2007-07-24 09:50
by Mike Carminati

The Yankees continued their offensive ways with a 9-2 win in Kansas City. They have scored 47 runs in the last three games. Just eleven teams since 1900 have scored more runs over three games.

Tonight they can add to that streak when they face Scott Elarton in Kansas City. Elarton owns a 9.17 ERA this season and his ERA is even worse at Kauffman Stadium (11.34 in four starts). Nine runs would give the Yankees 56 in four games; 11 runs, 58 overall.

Where would that put them on the all-time list? Well, 224 nineteenth-century teams amassed more than 58 runs in four games. The old, old, old Philly A's—that is three iterations back—scored 100 runs in four games in 1872. They beat Baltimore 34-19, Boston 10-7 (before a reported crowd of 5,000), Troy 25-5, and Cleveland 31-7 between May 1 and May 18. Overall, they outscored their opponents 100 to 38 or 25 to 9.5 per game.

However, since 1900 only six teams, and none since 1950, have scored more than 58 runs in a game. The most was by the 1950 Red Sox, who shut out the White Sox 12-0, lost to Chicago 4-8, and then beat the Browns 20-4 and 29-4, all at Fenway Park. That team also scored at least eleven runs in the three games before this streak and allowed thirty in total in the two games after it. The '50 Sox finished in third with a 94-60 record, four games behind (who else?) the Yankees. They had a 4.88 team ERA and outscored opponents 8.12 to 5.55 at home and 5.22 to 4.90 on the road.

The Yankees need to score 18 runs tonight to match the '50 Red Sox four-game offensive output. The most that the Royals have allowed this season was 17 runs to the A's May 10 at home. They have, however, scored 17 three times this season.

For the record, here are the teams that have scored the most runs in the consecutive games all time:

TeamYrDate 1ROppRADate 2ROppRADate 3ROppRA3-G R
Philadelphia Athletics18711871062110WS321871062620BS181871062849TRO3379
Troy Haymakers18711871062833PH1491871070337NY216187107139NY2779
Boston Red Stockings18731873101332BL1131873101724BR241873102118BL11374
Philadelphia Athletics18711871062620BS181871062849TRO33187106295NY2474
Philadelphia Athletics18711871062849TRO33187106295NY241871070120FW1374
Troy Haymakers1871187106193FW161871062833PH1491871070337NY21673
Chicago White Stockings18761876072018LS101876072230LS171876072523CN1371
Chicago White Stockings18761876072230LS171876072523CN131876072717CN1370
Boston Red Stockings18731873101113BL161873101332BL1131873101724BR2469
Philadelphia Athletics18721872050134BL1191872050410BS171872051325TRO569

And since 1900:

TeamYrDate 1ROppRADate 2ROppRADate 3ROppRA3-G R
Boston Red Sox19501950060720SLA41950060829SLA4195006097SLA1256
Pittsburgh Pirates1925192506199BRO61925062021BRO51925062224SLN654
Boston Red Sox1950195006064CHA81950060720SLA41950060829SLA453
New York Yankees19361936052312PHA61936052315PHA11936052425PHA252
Cleveland Indians19231923070727BOS3192307078BOS51923070815BOS1050
Cincinnati Reds19111911060315BSN41911060426BSN3191106059BSN250
Brooklyn Superbas19011901092325CIN61901092416CIN2190109259CIN250
Chicago Cubs19301930060116PIT41930060315BSN21930060418BSN1049
Boston Red Sox19401940092724WS141940092816PHA4194009288PHA148
New York Yankees19391939081218PHA4193908139PHA121939081321PHA048
Pittsburgh Pirates19251925062021BRO51925062224SLN6192506243SLN1148
Seattle Mariners20002000041411TOR92000041517TOR62000041619TOR747
Seattle Mariners20002000041517TOR62000041619TOR72000041811CHA1847
Detroit Tigers19931993081015BAL11993081115BAL51993081217BAL1147
Brooklyn Dodgers19501950062315PIT31950062421PIT121950062511PIT1647
New York Yankees19361936052315PHA11936052425PHA2193605257PHA1047
New York Giants19331933080218PHI11933080418PHI11933080511PHI347
Brooklyn Superbas19001900062220PHI131900062312NY111900062515NY1247
New York Yankees20072007072117TBA52007072221TBA4200707239KCA247

Now, the most in a four-game stretch all time:

TeamYrDate 1ROppRADate 2ROppRADate 3ROppRADate 4ROppRA4-G R
Philadelphia Athletics18721872050134BL1191872050410BS171872051325TRO51872051831CL17100
Philadelphia Athletics18711871062849TRO33187106295NY241871070120FW131871070422CL1996
Philadelphia Athletics18711871062620BS181871062849TRO33187106295NY241871070120FW1394
Chicago White Stockings18761876072018LS101876072230LS171876072523CN131876072717CN1388
Boston Red Stockings18731873101113BL161873101332BL1131873101724BR241873102118BL11387
Boston Red Stockings18731873101332BL1131873101724BR241873102118BL1131873102211WS5885
Philadelphia Athletics1871187106206NY281871062110WS321871062620BS181871062849TRO3385
Philadelphia Athletics18711871062110WS321871062620BS181871062849TRO33187106295NY2484
Troy Haymakers18711871061211CL120187106193FW161871062833PH1491871070337NY21684
Troy Haymakers1871187106193FW161871062833PH1491871070337NY216187107139NY2782
Troy Haymakers18711871062833PH1491871070337NY216187107139NY27187107273WS3382

And since 1900:
TeamYrDate 1ROppRADate 2ROppRADate 3ROppRADate 4ROppRA4-G R
Boston Red Sox19501950060512CHA0195006064CHA81950060720SLA41950060829SLA465
Boston Red Sox19501950060720SLA41950060829SLA4195006097SLA12195006108DET1864
New York Yankees1936193605219DET101936052312PHA61936052315PHA11936052425PHA261
Boston Red Sox1950195006064CHA81950060720SLA41950060829SLA4195006097SLA1260
New York Yankees19361936052312PHA61936052315PHA11936052425PHA2193605257PHA1059
Chicago Cubs19301930060116PIT41930060315BSN21930060418BSN101930060510BSN759
Seattle Mariners20002000041411TOR92000041517TOR62000041619TOR72000041811CHA1858
Pittsburgh Pirates19011901090515NY111901090515NY171901090615NY121901090613NY1458
Boston Red Sox19401940092724WS141940092816PHA4194009288PHA1194009299PHA457
New York Yankees1939193908119PHA51939081218PHA4193908139PHA121939081321PHA057
Pittsburgh Pirates19281928080218PHI41928080314PHI61928080414PHI81928080411PHI457
Pittsburgh Pirates1925192506199BRO61925062021BRO51925062224SLN6192506243SLN1157
Pittsburgh Pirates19221922080717PHI101922080819PHI8192208087PHI31922081014PHI457
New York Giants19121912060113SLN4191206038SLN31912060414SLN91912060522CIN1057
New York Giants19121912062021BSN12191206215BSN21912062217BSN51912062214BSN1257

Bronx Bombings
2007-07-23 09:47
by Mike Carminati

The Yankees have officially hit their stride.

Remember that this is a team that was under .500 at the All-Star break. They are 9-3 since the break, and even though they are trail the AL East lead by 7.5 games and the wild card by 6.5, c'mon these are the Yankees after all.

Led by former Trenton Thunder "Serpentine" Shelley Duncan and his two homers, the Yanks beat the D-Rays 21-4 yesterday, one day after a 17-5 whipping. The 38-run total for the two games is the most by New York in straight games since they took two from the Philly A's by a collective score or 40-3 in 1936 (i.e., 15-1 on May 23 and 25-2 on May 24, 1936).

The Yankees also collected twenty hits in two consecutive games (20 on 7/21 and 25 yesterday) for the first time since the franchise moved to New York in 1903. Elias reports that the franchise amassed twenty hits in two straight games 105 years ago (Aug. 23 and 25, 1902) when they were still know as the Baltimore Orioles.

The last time any team accomplished this feat was four years ago when the Cubs collected 20 hits on July 20, 2003 in beating the Marlins on the road 16-2 and then 21 more the next day, 15-6 at Atlanta. The first game ended Dontrelle Willis's nine-game win streak to start his career. The Cubs trailed the second game 5-4 in the fourth when starter Shawn Estes was pulled with the bases loaded and none out in favor of Dave Veres, who not only got out of the jam without allowing a run, but ended up winning the game.

A team has collected twenty hits in consecutive games seven times in the last twenty seasons. I could find only one game prior to that in Retrosheet's data:

TeamDate1HDate2H
NYA20070721202007072225
CHN20030720202003072121
TEX20020731212002080120
CIN19940618201994061920
SFN19930708201993070923
NYN199006122119900613 (Game 1)20
BOS19880619231988062021
PIT192208072219220808 (Game 1)27

The Yanks 38 runs in the two games are nowhere near the all-time "record". Here are all two-game totals of fifty runs or more. Note that Troy holds the "record" with 70 runs in two games; however, they lost one of those games and allowed 65 runs in the two games:

TeamYrDate 1ROppRADate 2ROppRA2-G R
Troy Haymakers18711871062833PH1491871070337NY21670
Philadelphia Athletics18711871062620BS181871062849TRO3369
Middletown Mansfields18721872062126BR161872062236BR1662
Boston Red Stockings18731873101332BL1131873101724BR2456
Philadelphia Athletics18721872051325TRO51872051831CL1756
Baltimore Canaries18731873062720BL401873063035BL4155
Philadelphia Athletics18711871062849TRO33187106295NY2454
Boston Red Stockings18741874050928BL171874051225HR1353
Chicago White Stockings18761876072230LS171876072523CN1353
Boston Red Stockings18711871071021RC1121871071230FW1951
Washington Blue Legs18731873041424BL431873041527BL4751
Philadelphia Whites18731873062423WS561873063027PH11750

They do become just the ninth team since 1900 to score 38 or more over two straight games:

TeamYrDate 1ROppRADate 2ROppRA2-G Total
Boston Red Sox19501950060720SLA41950060829SLA449
Pittsburgh Pirates19251925062021BRO51925062224SLN645
Brooklyn Superbas19011901092325CIN61901092416CIN241
Cincinnati Reds19111911060315BSN41911060426BSN341
Boston Red Sox19401940092724WS141940092816PHA440
Boston Red Sox19531953061717DET11953061823DET340
New York Yankees19361936052315PHA11936052425PHA240
Texas Rangers19961996041712OAK11996041926BAL738
New York Yankees20072007072117TBA52007072221TBA438

Also, there are just six teams since 1900 including the 2007 Yankees that have scored 38 or more runs in consecutives games against the same opponent:

TeamYrDate 1ROppRADate 2ROppRA2-G R
Boston Red Sox19501950060720SLA41950060829SLA449
Brooklyn Superbas19011901092325CIN61901092416CIN241
Cincinnati Reds19111911060315BSN41911060426BSN341
Boston Red Sox19531953061717DET11953061823DET340
New York Yankees19361936052315PHA11936052425PHA240
New York Yankees20072007072117TBA52007072221TBA438

The Yankees scored double-digit runs in the fourth inning for just the 29th such inning in their recorded history. Here are their highest scoring innings in Yankee history. They scored 13 in an inning in two separate games against the D-Rays two years ago:

DateGame NumVisiting teamVT runsHome teamHT runsVT linescoreHT linescoreInningVisitors RHome RNYY R
200506210TBA11NYA200523001000110410(13)x801313
200504180TBA8NYA190020510000(13)200022x201313
194506210NYA14BOS40010(13)0000000100030513013
198704110NYA15KCA2100100(12)01000000011712012
194909111WS15NYA2000000001400(12)20321x301212
193305270CHA11NYA150030014302001000(12)x831212
198706260BOS11NYA12450200000000(11)0000001301111
195205100BOS3NYA18030000000100123(11)0x701111
195105030NYA17SLA300015000(11)001100100911011
193608282DET4NYA1903001000(11)0530x231111
192807261NYA12DET100000100000(11)0000000010001211011

The most runs scored in an inning from the Retrosheet data was by the Red Sox, 17, in 1953:

DateGame NumVisiting teamVT runsHome teamHT runsVT linescoreHT linescoreInningVisitors RHome RInning R
195306180DET3BOS23000201000030002(17)1x701717
199604190BAL7TEX261005001005100301(16)x801616
195205210CIN1BRO19000010000(15)0202000x101515
195006182PHA2CLE21000100100(14)0400003x101414
198908030HOU2CIN18010100000(14)0000031x101414
200306270FLO8BOS25100040012(14)2121014x111414
192208250PHI23CHN260321300861(10)0(14)0100x411414
194807040PHA5BOS19000003200010013(14)0x721414
Hit Parade
2007-07-18 09:38
by Mike Carminati

Who needs pitching, huh?

 

The Phils collected 26 hits yesterday in a BP-like route of the Dodgers, 15-3.  J.D. Durbin collected his first major-league win to go with his three hits, the first of his career as well.  Ryan Howard collected two homers and four RBI. Shane Victorino and Aaron Rowand collected five hits each.  Rowand had three doubles along with a homer, and Chase Utley had two.  Every starter got a hit, the last being Chris Coste who singled in the ninth. In total the Phils had 26 hits: four home runs, a triple, six doubles, and 15 singles. Oddly, they had just one walk (Burrell) to go with three strikeouts, two of which were Howard.

 

And yet it seemed that the Phils offense was going to be reined in early in the game.  After scoring three runs in the first, they loaded the bases with no outs to start the second.  After Durbin was out at home on a Chase Utley grounder and force out and was guilty of dogging it down the line.  Howard then struck out and Rowand popped up, his only out of the night.  The Phils then went down in order in the third…  And then the five-run fourth put the game away.

 

The team record for hits was set on August 17, 1894—36 hits, 28 of which are singles, Both are major-league records.  It came in a 29-4 win over the Louisville Colonels with Big Sam Thompson hitting for the cycle and going 6-for-7. The game was played at the University of Pennsylvania Athletic Field, a UPenn park of some sort that predated Franklin Field.

 

Three other Phils (CF "Sliding Billy" Hamilton‚ SS Joe Sullivan and catcher Mike Grady) also collected five hits, a record for 5-hit teammates. Big Ed Delahanty—a lot of Big's in the lineup—scored five runs, Lave Cross and Jack Boyle both had eight ABs, and all eleven players in the lineup got a hit. 

 

Oddly, three days earlier with the Phils playing at the same ballpark, allowed 6 homers to Louisville getting pasted, 13-7. The Phils then won the last three games of the series, 14-4, 17-3, and 29-4 (the 8/17 game). Those games and a doubleheader played against the old, old Washington Senators (a team before the first AL team), which the Phils won 10-7 and 16-4, are the only games ever played at that UPenn field. The Phils went 5-1 outscoring their opponents 93-35 there (or about 16-6 on average).

 

The Phils batted .349 as a team that year with four starting to semi-starting outfielders registering a batting average of .400 or better (actually .404 or better), the only time that has ever happened.

 

The next most hits in a game that I could find was 33 by the Indians on July 10, 1932, in an 18-inning losing effort against the A’s. The A’s had 25 hits and won 18-17. The 58 hits for both teams in that game set a major-league record.

 

The next most hits were 31 by the NY Giants June 9, 1901 in a 25-13 game in Cincinnati which ended up a forfeit and the Brewers back when they were in the AL beating the Blue Jays 22-2 at Skydome on August 28, 1992.

 

The Giants were added by a plethora (Jefe, do you know what a plethora is?) of ground rule doubles due to the seventeen-plus thousand fans in the overflow crowd being ringed in in the outfield.  As the crowd grew so did the GR doubles.  A 15-4 game at the end of six grows to 25-13.  With two outs in the ninth and the crowd infringing on the infield, plate ump Bob Emslie declares the game a forfeit to the Giants.  The Reds had 18 hits themselves, and the two clubs collected an NL-record 36 singles (22 by NY, 14 by Cincy). Three Giants collect at least five hits—Kip Selbach (6 hits), George Van Haltren, and Charlie “Piano Legs” Hickman.

 

This was the Reds final season in old League Park (II), which was largely destroyed in a fire the previous season (one grandstand survived and the field was repositioned to accommodate it). In 1902 they opened a new concrete and steel ballpark, the palatial Palace of the Fans, on the same site. Redland Field (renamed Crosley Field in 1934) was built also on the same site on 1912 to address the need for box seats. Basically, the Reds played in four separate ballparks on the same site, a former brickyard, from 1884 to mid-1970 when Riverfront Stadium opened.

 

But I digress…The Phils also set a new record for the most hits in Dodger Stadium and tied the record for most hits allowed by the Dodgers at home since they moved to LA.  The record was set in 1958, their first in LA, when they played in old LA Memorial Coliseum while awaiting the completion of Dodger Stadium. The previous record for hits in Dodger Stadium was 25 by the Angels last year in a 16-3 win.

 

Here are the most team hits in a Dodgers game since their 1958 move (at least 20 hits by one team):

 

Date

Visiting team

Home team

Visitor R

Home R

Visitor H

Home H

20070718

PHI

LAN

15

3

26

14

19580513

SFN

LAN

16

9

26

11

20060519

LAA

LAN

3

16

10

25

19900519

PHI

LAN

15

12

24

15

19700823

PIT

LAN

11

0

23

4

19730524

NYN

LAN

7

3

22

19

19790724

PHI

LAN

3

15

8

22

19880603

CIN

LAN

5

13

11

22

19950812

PIT

LAN

10

11

22

17

20040625

ANA

LAN

13

0

22

4

19890504

SLN

LAN

12

0

21

3

19610913

PIT

LAN

8

2

20

6

19640919

PHI

LAN

3

4

16

20

19700809*

CIN

LAN

3

13

6

20

19760608

PHI

LAN

14

2

20

8

19780922

SDN

LAN

12

3

20

9

19790525

CIN

LAN

6

17

14

20

19840630

CHN

LAN

14

4

20

7

19880814

SFN

LAN

15

4

20

12

19900921

SFN

LAN

3

16

9

20

20010801

CIN

LAN

10

5

20

10

20010815

MON

LAN

1

13

7

20

 

* = Second game of a doubleheader

Have You Heard About the Lonesome Loser?
2007-07-16 18:22
by Mike Carminati

(The albatross and the whales are his brothers.)

So the other shoe finally dropped. The Phils lost game number ten thousand with very little fanfare, at least coming from the Phils themselves. I understand that setting a losing milestone is nothing to celebrate, but couldn't the team have turned into an opportunity to advertise the history of the franchise and of baseball in Philly in general?

Hey, it ain't beneath me. So here goes…

First, looking at the progressive history of the all-time losingest teams, the Phils have only led the pack since 1992. The Braves were in the lead from 1987 to 1991, but fourteen straight division titles will dig you out of that hole. The Phils and Braves have been swapping the title of losingest team since the Braves wrested the crown from the Cardinals in 1920. The Braves owned the title from 1920 to 1956 and from 1987 to 1991, and the Phils from 1957 to 1986 and then from 1992 until today. The Braves still outclass the Phils, by 21 years, in the category of total years owning the biggest loser crown.

There have been nine franchises in baseball history who have held the title of big loser in sports. Besides the Braves and Phils, just two others, the Cubs and Cards, are the only active ones:

FranchiseYrsFirstLast
Atlanta Braves6718811991
Philadelphia Phillies4619572007
Chicago Cubs918771904
Louisville Colonels518951899
Brooklyn Atlantics318731875
St. Louis Cardinals319161919
New York Mutuals218721876
Cincinnati Reds (I)118801880
Rockford Forest Citys118711871

The Braves can at least boast to own the biggest winner title for 36 years, the last coming in 1907, however. The current leaders are the Giants who having owned the crown every season since 1988:

FranchiseYrsFirstLast
Chicago Cubs7819081987
Atlanta Braves3618721907
San Francisco Giants2219822007
Philadelphia Athletics (I)118711871

The Phils have lost to 38 different opponents. They have lost to 28 of the 29 other active teams (they are 3-0 against the Texas Rangers) and to ten different defunct teams. Here are their all-time opponents (through 2007) ranked by most losses:

FranchiseFirst YrLast YrWLPCTActive?
San Francisco Giants188320078971,224.423Y
Chicago Cubs188320071,0711,197.472Y
St. Louis Cardinals189220079281,188.439Y
Pittsburgh Pirates188720061,0271,176.466Y
Atlanta Braves188320071,0541,169.474Y
Los Angeles Dodgers189020068811,125.439Y
Cincinnati Reds189020079131,100.454Y
New York Mets19622007412364.531Y
Washington Nationals18862007372334.527Y
Houston Astros19622007273259.513Y
San Diego Padres19692006217186.538Y
Florida Marlins19932007119103.536Y
Baltimore Orioles189220065882.414Y
Cleveland Spiders188918998476.525N
Detroit Wolverines188318884554.455N
Colorado Rockies199320076254.534Y
Arizona Diamondbacks199820073339.458Y
Louisville Colonels189218996634.660N
Washington Senators189218996933.676N
Providence Grays188318851431.311N
Milwaukee Brewers199820073929.574Y
Buffalo Bisons188318852125.457N
Cleveland Blues188318841218.400N
Boston Red Sox199720061318.419Y
St. Louis Maroons188518862112.636N
New York Yankees19972006810.444Y
Tampa Bay Devil Rays19982006510.333Y
Toronto Blue Jays199720071110.524Y
Indianapolis Hoosiers18871889439.827N
Detroit Tigers1997200766.500Y
Seattle Mariners2003200515.167Y
Chicago White Sox2002200754.556Y
Oakland Athletics2003200533.500Y
Minnesota Twins2002200433.500Y
Cleveland Indians2002200733.500Y
Kansas City Royals2004200733.500Y
Kansas City Cowboys18861886142.875N
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim2003200312.333Y
Texas Rangers20052005301.000Y
Grand Total8,81010,000.46839 teams
Vs. Active Teams8,4219,706.46529 teams
Vs. Inactive Teams389294.57010 teams

Now, the Phils have used 858 different pitchers on the road to 10K losses. Here are the ones that lost the most games for the team:

PitcherFirst YrLast YrWLPCT
Robin Roberts19481961234199.540
Steve Carlton19721986241161.600
Chris Short19591972132127.510
Curt Simmons19471960115110.511
Eppa Rixey1912192087103.458
Bill Duggleby189819079099.476
Jimmy Ring192119286898.410
Tully Sparks189719109595.500
Pete Alexander1911193019091.676
Hugh Mulcahy193519464589.336
Ray Benge192819365882.414
Phil Collins192919357279.477
Curt Schilling1992200010178.564
Jack Taylor189218979677.555
Rick Wise196419717576.497
Chick Fraser189919047475.497
Jim Bunning196419718973.549
Al Orth1895190110072.581
Larry Christenson197319838371.539
Kid Carsey189218979471.570
Kid Gleason188818917870.527

The Phils have used 25 pitchers this year and are on pace to potentially break the all-time record of 37 by the Padres in 2002. Given that they have about two or three reliable starters and possibly fewer reliable relievers, I wouldn't be surprised if they broke that record even with Stand Pat in all his standing pat glory. Here are the teams that used at least thirty pitchers in a year:

TeamYr#Pitchers
San Diego Padres200237
Cleveland Indians200032
Cleveland Indians200231
Kansas City Royals200631
Texas Rangers200430
Detroit Tigers200230
Texas Rangers200530
Cleveland Indians200430
Cincinnati Reds200330

The Phils will unquestionably set an all-time franchise record for most pitchers in a season. They are within two of the "record":

TeamYr#Pitchers
Philadelphia Phillies200027
Philadelphia Phillies199526
Philadelphia Phillies200725
Philadelphia Phillies199625
Philadelphia Phillies199224
Philadelphia Phillies194624

Finally, the Phillies have used 51 different managers en route to 10,000 losses. Andy Cohen (1-0) is the only one without a loss. Here are the top twenty losers on that list. Guess who comes in at #20:

ManagerFirst YrLast YrWLPCT
Gene Mauch19601968646684.486
Harry Wright18841893636566.529
Burt Shotton19281933370549.403
Danny Ozark19731979594510.538
Jimmie Wilson19341938280477.370
Jim Fregosi19911996431463.482
Eddie Sawyer19481960390423.480
Art Fletcher19231926231378.379
Red Dooin19101914392370.514
Terry Francona19972000285363.440
Doc Prothro19391941138320.301
Larry Bowa20012004337308.522
Bill Shettsline18981902367303.548
Mayo Smith19551958264282.484
Ben Chapman19451948196276.415
Pat Moran19151918323257.557
Hugh Duffy19041906206251.451
Frank Lucchesi19701972166233.416
Billy Murray19071909240214.529
Charlie Manuel20052007219196.528
Loss For Words
2007-07-11 11:27
by Mike Carminati

If you didn't like lat night's All-Star Game, you are just not a baseball fan.

The game abounded with weird bounces and odd caroms. It boasted purportedly the event's first ever inside-the-park home run, by the game MVP Ichiro Suzuki. It ended with a rally that brought the NL within one run with the bases loaded and two outs. Of course, it was a Phillie (Aaron Rowand) who flied out to end the game, but how often do you find yourself at the edge of your seat at the end of a (relatively) meaningless exhibition game? I ever watched the inane Jeannie Zalasko interview of Ichiro by proxy, i.e., via a translator.

They had me before "Hello". The pre-game stuff with Willie Mays, who appeared to be wearing eight to ten layers of sports paraphernalia, being paraded around the ballpark throwing balls to the crowd, I eat that stuff up like a kid in a candy store. They even made that old curmudgeon Ted Williams seem nice and avuncular with a similar event many years ago. Prior to that the snarky Williams was revered but pretty much hated everywhere even in Boston (I lived up there at the time). After that All-Star game he resonated cuteness akin to an ewok with the American public.

Anyway, when we left off the Phils won a game in Colorado to end the first half as they were seemingly destined to do so, at .500. Some time this week or next, the Phillies will not be able to slake the groundskeeper gods by helping the local crew lay down the tarp during a rain delay and will lose a ball game.

It will, of course, mark their much anticipated ten thousandth loss. The Phils will then become the first team to reach this dubious distinction.

And I say…So what?

What does such a "record" say about the team? Does it make them the worst in sport? Uh, no, no other sport has played nearly as many games or had the history of baseball. The NFL plays just a tenth the games and wasn't formed until 1920 (as the American Professional Football Association). The NBA has franchises that date back to the Forties prior to the merger of the Basketball Association of America and the National Basketball League which birthed the current-day league, and they play about half as many games. The NHL dates back to 1917 and also plays about half the games that baseball does.

So maybe it says they are the worst in baseball, right? Well, no. To compete with the Phils you would have to have a franchise that started in the nineteenth century and the AL didn't become a major league until 1901, which leaves out half the teams. Consider also that half of the 16 NL clubs originated as expansion teams dating no farther back then 1962.

That leaves eight teams, the NL's original eight. So when the Phils reach this new record, it will say that they were the worst of the original eight. OK, I can live with that, but it seems like much ado about not a whole not. Anyone with a passing knowledge of the sport could probably tell you that.

Below is a breakdown by decade of the teams with the most losses in baseball. The Phils don't register in the top five until after almost forty years as a franchise, in the 1920s. However, the set up residence there for the next three decades sealing their fate. Even though they haven't made the playoffs since 1993, their best decade since the 1910s is the current one.

RankFranchiseWL
1870s
1Cincinnati Reds104158
2Brooklyn Atlantics50140
3New York Mutuals151122
4Chicago Cubs154110
NAPhiladelphia Phillies00
1880s
1Baltimore Orioles403519
2Louisville Colonels432510
3Pittsburgh Pirates418504
4Atlanta Braves575497
5Detroit Wolverines426437
6Philadelphia Phillies390424
1890s
1St. Louis Cardinals563816
2Louisville Colonels561810
3Washington Senators454788
4Pittsburgh Pirates649723
5Cleveland Spiders677692
10Philadelphia Phillies743629
1900s
1St. Louis Cardinals580888
2Atlanta Braves587877
3Minnesota Twins480833
4Los Angeles Dodgers649809
5Cincinnati Reds705769
6Philadelphia Phillies709752
1910s
1Baltimore Orioles597892
2St. Louis Cardinals652830
3Atlanta Braves666815
4Los Angeles Dodgers696787
5New York Yankees701780
11Philadelphia Phillies762717
1920s
1Philadelphia Phillies566962
2Boston Red Sox595938
3Atlanta Braves603928
4Chicago White Sox731804
5Detroit Tigers760778
1930s
1Baltimore Orioles578951
2Philadelphia Phillies581943
3Cincinnati Reds664866
4Chicago White Sox678841
5Atlanta Braves700829
1940s
1Philadelphia Phillies584951
2Oakland Athletics638898
3Minnesota Twins677858
4Baltimore Orioles698833
5Chicago White Sox707820
1950s
1Pittsburgh Pirates616923
2Oakland Athletics624915
3Baltimore Orioles632905
4Minnesota Twins640898
5Chicago Cubs672866
8Philadelphia Phillies767773
1960s
1Oakland Athletics686922
2Chicago Cubs735868
3Boston Red Sox764845
4Texas Rangers607844
5Philadelphia Phillies759843
1970s
1San Diego Padres667942
2Atlanta Braves725883
3Milwaukee Brewers738873
4Cleveland Indians737866
5Washington Nationals748862
15Philadelphia Phillies812801
1980s
1Seattle Mariners673893
2Cleveland Indians710849
3Atlanta Braves712845
4Texas Rangers720839
5Minnesota Twins733833
13Philadelphia Phillies783780
1990s
1Detroit Tigers702852
2Minnesota Twins718833
3Kansas City Royals725825
4Philadelphia Phillies732823
5Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim738817
2000s
1Tampa Bay Devil Rays481737
2Kansas City Royals501721
3Pittsburgh Pirates524696
4Detroit Tigers533686
5Baltimore Orioles535685
17Philadelphia Phillies620601

This is basically a team that has had very few peaks and ones that were not that high while suffering through many abysmally deep and long valleys. Tell me something I don't already know.

The Phils are not the worst team in the majors. Here are the up-to-date standings, worst to best for all active clubs. The Phils rank fifth even with their decades of futility:

Franchise#YrsFirstLastWLPCTW/YrL/Yr
Tampa Bay Devil Rays9.519982007613929.39864.5397.79
San Diego Padres38.51969200728303286.46373.5185.35
Colorado Rockies14.51993200710691224.46673.7284.41
Texas Rangers46.51961200734543939.46774.2884.71
Philadelphia Phillies124.51883200788089999.46870.7580.31
Milwaukee Brewers38.51969200728853226.47274.9483.79
Seattle Mariners30.51977200722762544.47274.6283.41
Florida Marlins14.51993200710831207.47374.6983.24
Baltimore Orioles106.51901200778508628.47673.7181.01
New York Mets45.51962200734563781.47875.9683.10
Minnesota Twins106.51901200779298557.48174.4580.35
Washington Nationals38.51969200729433167.48276.4482.26
Oakland Athletics106.51901200780078456.48675.1879.40
Kansas City Royals38.51969200729723133.48777.1981.38
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim46.51961200736493761.49278.4780.88
Toronto Blue Jays30.51977200723882434.49578.3079.80
Houston Astros45.51962200736183633.49979.5279.85
Atlanta Braves136.51871200798849741.50472.4171.36
Arizona Diamondbacks9.519982007775773.50181.5881.37
Chicago White Sox106.51901200783398139.50678.3076.42
Detroit Tigers106.51901200783688151.50778.5776.54
Pittsburgh Pirates125.51882200795969339.50776.4674.41
Cincinnati Reds125.51882200796369338.50876.7874.41
Cleveland Indians106.51901200784328066.51179.1775.74
Chicago Cubs134.518712007100219502.51374.5170.65
Boston Red Sox106.51901200784977994.51579.7875.06
St. Louis Cardinals125.51882200798059156.51778.1372.96
Los Angeles Dodgers123.51884200798438932.52479.7072.32
San Francisco Giants124.518832007101518681.53981.5369.73
New York Yankees106.51901200793317137.56787.6267.01

To put this in perspective, here are the sixteen teams that would exceed 10,000 losses had they played as many seasons as the Phils (124.5):

Franchise#YrsFirstLastWLPCTW/YrL/YrActive? W-Proj L-Proj
Buffalo Bisons1189018903696.27336.0096.00N 4,482 11,952
Tampa Bay Devil Rays9.519982007613929.39864.5397.79Y 7,588 11,480
Kansas City Cowboys1188618863091.24830.0091.00N 3,735 11,330
Baltimore Terrapins219141915131177.42565.5088.50N 8,155 11,018
Washington Senators918911899454788.36650.4487.56N 6,280 10,901
Kansas City Cowboys21888188998171.36449.0085.50N 6,101 10,645
San Diego Padres38.51969200728303286.46373.5185.35Y 8,993 10,503
Washington Nationals418861889163337.32640.7584.25N 5,073 10,489
Texas Rangers46.51961200734543939.46774.2884.71Y 9,146 10,412
Indianapolis Hoosiers318871889146249.37048.6783.00N 6,059 10,334
Milwaukee Brewers38.51969200728853226.47274.9483.79Y 9,171 10,306
New York Mets45.51962200734563781.47875.9683.10Y 9,325 10,239
Seattle Mariners30.51977200722762544.47274.6283.41Y 9,091 10,238
Colorado Rockies14.51993200710691224.46673.7284.41Y 8,801 10,132
Washington Nationals38.51969200729433167.48276.4482.26Y 9,401 10,073
Baltimore Orioles106.51901200778508628.47673.7181.01Y 9,132 10,029

To further illustrate how the Phils are doomed by their pre-Whiz kid failings, here are the breakdowns for all active franchises before and after 1950:

Before 1950:

FranchiseWLPCTYrsFirst Last
Atlanta Braves51205420.4867918711949
Philadelphia Phillies43355378.4466718831949
Cincinnati Reds49294953.4996818821949
St. Louis Cardinals50644814.5136818821949
Los Angeles Dodgers48704801.5046618841949
Pittsburgh Pirates51864666.5266818821949
Chicago Cubs57694672.5537718711949
San Francisco Giants54084322.5566718831949
Baltimore Orioles32344166.4374919011949
Minnesota Twins35103885.4754919011949
Oakland Athletics35753789.4854919011949
Chicago White Sox36583732.4954919011949
Boston Red Sox37023694.5014919011949
Cleveland Indians38493567.5194919011949
Detroit Tigers38853535.5244919011949
New York Yankees41713216.5654919011949

After 1950:

FranchiseWLPCTYrsFirst Last
Chicago Cubs42084787.4685719502006
Minnesota Twins43744629.4865719502006
Pittsburgh Pirates43704625.4865719502006
Oakland Athletics43884623.4875719502006
Detroit Tigers44314582.4925719502006
Philadelphia Phillies44294577.4925719502006
Cleveland Indians45314463.5045719502006
Baltimore Orioles45784413.5095719502006
Chicago White Sox46424360.5165719502006
Cincinnati Reds46714333.5195719502006
San Francisco Giants47054311.5225719502006
St. Louis Cardinals47014297.5225719502006
Atlanta Braves47174279.5245719502006
Boston Red Sox47424266.5265719502006
Los Angeles Dodgers49244091.5465719502006
Texas Rangers34163889.4684619612006
New York Yankees51183878.5695719502006
New York Mets34083742.4774519622006
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim35963726.4914619612006
Houston Astros35793583.5004519622006
San Diego Padres27813248.4613819692006
Milwaukee Brewers28363187.4713819692006
Washington Nationals29073115.4833819692006
Kansas City Royals29343083.4883819692006
Seattle Mariners22272508.4703019772006
Toronto Blue Jays23452390.4953019772006
Colorado Rockies10251180.4651419932006
Florida Marlins10411160.4731419932006
Tampa Bay Devil Rays579876.398919982006
Arizona Diamondbacks728730.499919982006

Even though it is organized baseball second city (after NYC), Philly's baseball image is further besmirched by some of the lesser A's teams from a Connie Mack housecleaning. Here are the most losses by city all time (actually through 2006):

CityST#Tm-YrsFirstLastWLPCTW/YrL/Yr
ChicagoIL244187120061856617796.51176.0972.93
New YorkNY236187120061916216104.54381.1968.24
PhiladelphiaPA200187120061365515096.47568.2875.48
St. LouisMO186187520061361713997.49373.2175.25
BostonMA191187120061401913759.50573.4072.04
CincinnatiOH1321876200698379596.50674.5272.70
PittsburghPA1291882200698079562.50676.0274.12
ClevelandOH1281871200695209377.50474.3873.26
DetroitMI1141881200687428554.50576.6875.04
WashingtonDC911871197156697224.44062.3079.38
BrooklynNY831872195759265734.50871.4069.08
BaltimoreMD801872200658685536.51573.3569.20

Philadelphia still comes in no worse than 12th on the all-time losing, rather than winning, percentage (for cities with at least five seasons):

CityST#Tm-YrsFirstLastWLPCTW/YrL/Yr
Tampa-St. PetersburgFL919982006579876.39864.3397.33
IndianapolisIN618781914287428.40147.8371.33
TroyNY618711882162216.42927.0036.00
LouisvilleKY201876189910581381.43452.9069.05
WashingtonDC911871197156697224.44062.3079.38
Kansas CityMO571884200640554788.45971.1484.00
San DiegoCA381969200627813248.46173.1885.47
DenverCO141993200610251180.46573.2184.29
BuffaloNY1018791915504578.46650.4057.80
SeattleWA311969200622912606.46873.9084.06
MiamiFL141993200610411160.47374.3682.86
PhiladelphiaPA200187120061365515096.47568.2875.48

Oddly, two teams, the Giants and Cubs, are already over 10,000 wins and yet I don't remember all that much hoopla surrounding that achievement for either teams. The Dodgers should reach the milestone some time next year and the Cards soon after. Here are the original 16 ranked by wins:

Franchise#YrsFirstLastWLPCTW/YrL/Yr
San Francisco Giants124.518832007101518681.53981.5369.73
Chicago Cubs134.518712007100219502.51374.5170.65
Atlanta Braves136.51871200798849741.50472.4171.36
Los Angeles Dodgers123.51884200798438932.52479.7072.32
St. Louis Cardinals125.51882200798059156.51778.1372.96
Cincinnati Reds125.51882200796369338.50876.7874.41
Pittsburgh Pirates125.51882200795969339.50776.4674.41
New York Yankees106.51901200793317137.56787.6267.01
Philadelphia Phillies124.51883200788089999.46870.7580.31
Boston Red Sox106.51901200784977994.51579.7875.06
Cleveland Indians106.51901200784328066.51179.1775.74
Detroit Tigers106.51901200783688151.50778.5776.54
Chicago White Sox106.51901200783398139.50678.3076.42
Oakland Athletics106.51901200780078456.48675.1879.40
Minnesota Twins106.51901200779298557.48174.4580.35
Baltimore Orioles106.51901200778508628.47673.7181.01

The Cubs 10K win came June 3 in a 10-1 win at Wrigley over the Braves. The Giants reached 10K on July 14, 2005 when, appropriately, they beat the Dodgers 4-2 in LA.

Isthmus Be My Lucky Day, Part II
2007-07-09 22:45
by Mike Carminati

While I was sitting around wondering how long I was going to be able to stand Chris Berman's repeated "Back! Back! Back!"'s tonight—the answer is one round of the home run derby—I came up with a little bit more info on multiple 13-inning games on the same day.

Oh, but one further comment on the HR derby before I go—in how much bad taste was Joe Morgan's repeated comments on Willie Mays being the best player he ever saw? It was an obvious dis of Barry Bonds in his own stadium while he played host of sorts to the rest of baseball. Simply gratuitous. Besides, and I only saw Mays at the tail-end of his career but, Bonds is better.

Anyway, dianagramr asked in the previous post if two New York teams had registered 13-inning games on the same day before. The short answer is yes, but I prefer the long one…

Here are the days that the Mets and Yankees both made the list:

DateTm1ROppRAInnTm2ROppRAInn
19940811NYA7TOR813NYN1PHI215
19740911NYA2BAL317NYN3SLN425
19880604NYA6BAL714NYN6CHN513

Lest us forget, New York had two other franchises until the late Fifties. Here are all the days that more than one New York/Brooklyn team registered a 13-inning game:

DateTm1ROppRAInnTm2ROppRAInnCity1City2
19020817BRO7SLN718NY13CHN214BrooklynNew York
19090415BRO3NY1013NY10BRO313BrooklynNew York
19090703BRO3NY1514NY15BRO314BrooklynNew York
19090821BRO1SLN013NYA4CHA513BrooklynNew York
19100704BRO5NY1613NY16BRO513BrooklynNew York
19130429BRO0NY1613NY16BRO013BrooklynNew York
19180619BRO2NY1113NY11BRO213BrooklynNew York
19210616BRO5PIT617NY14CHN513BrooklynNew York
19210811BRO5NY1613NY16BRO513BrooklynNew York
19220704BRO5NY1514NY15BRO514BrooklynNew York
19280915BRO4NY1513NY15BRO413BrooklynNew York
19290623BRO9NY1814NY18BRO914BrooklynNew York
19320723NY13BSN214NYA4BOS315New YorkNew York
19330416BRO1NY1114NY11BRO114BrooklynNew York
19430904BRO4NY1317NY13BRO417BrooklynNew York
19450605BRO6NY1314NY13BRO614BrooklynNew York
19450618BRO2NY1113NY11BRO213BrooklynNew York
19480906BRO1BSN214NY14PHI313BrooklynNew York
19480911BRO1NY1213NY12BRO113BrooklynNew York
19490530BRO2NY1113NY11BRO213BrooklynNew York
19490531BRO6NY1414NY14BRO614BrooklynNew York
19520805BRO6NY1715NY17BRO615BrooklynNew York
19530818BRO4NY1313NY13BRO413BrooklynNew York
19540629BRO3NY1413NY14BRO313BrooklynNew York
19560816BRO10NY1913NY19BRO1013BrooklynNew York
19570511BRO5NY1615NY16BRO515BrooklynNew York
19740911NYA2BAL317NYN3SLN425New YorkNew York
19880604NYA6BAL714NYN6CHN513New YorkNew York
19940811NYA7TOR813NYN1PHI215New YorkNew York

And before we ignore all the other mutiple-team cities out there—you know who you are, Chicago—here are all the days that two teams from the same city (dropping Brooklyn from NYC this time) played at least 13 innings:

DateTm1ROppRAInnTm2ROppRAInnCity
19100615CHA4PHA314CHN2BRO314Chicago
19100615PHA3CHA414PHI3CIN316Philadelphia
19300829CHA3CLE013CHN9SLN813Chicago
19320723BOS3NYA415BSN2NY1314Boston
19320723NY13BSN214NYA4BOS315New York
19320818BOS7SLA615BSN3CHN415Boston
19350614SLA3NYA413SLN8BSN713St. Louis
19360909BOS2CHA313BSN1SLN315Boston
19450819BOS10SLA813BSN4SLN513Boston
19450819SLA8BOS1013SLN5BSN413St. Louis
19510907CHA1DET214CHN6CIN718Chicago
19620805CHA3NYA213CHN3LAN414Chicago
19740911NYA2BAL317NYN3SLN425New York
19880604NYA6BAL714NYN6CHN513New York
19940811NYA7TOR813NYN1PHI215New York
20000609CHA6CHN514CHN5CHA614Chicago

That dead horse is officially beaten.

Isthmus Be My Lucky Day
2007-07-08 21:45
by Mike Carminati

July 7, 2007 turned out to be a lucky day after all, at least for the Mets, Angels, and Tigers. All three won games in the thirteenth inning or later, the Mets on a Carlos beltran go-ahead single in the seventeenth, the Angels on a pair of Miguel Cairo errors (two of the Yankees five on the day) in the thirteenth, and the Tigers on a Pudge Rodriguez walk-off hit.

The three games marked just the fifth time in baseball history that three games have gone at least 13 innings and the first time in 27 years. The last time it happened was July 13, 1980 (the ides of July?) and the only other times it happened was June 15, 1910, June 16, 1921 and April 12, 1966.

Here are the scores for all of these games:

DateVisiting teamHome teamVT runsHT runsNum Innings
19100615CHNBRO2314
19100615CINPHI3316
19100615PHACHA3414
19210616BROPIT5617
19210616BSNSLN5415
19210616NY1CHN4513
19660412BALBOS5413
19660412CALCHA2314
19660412PITATL3213
19800713LANSDN3415
19800713OAKCAL4514
19800713SEAMIN6713
20070707LAANYY2113
20070707NYMHOU5317
20070707BOSDET2313

Oh, and the Yankees' five errors are far from a record but represent just the ninth five-error game in the last ten years. Here are the rest:

DateVisiting teamHome teamVT runsHT runsVTF EHTF E
20060923CHNCIN11416
20060912LANCHN8926
20060908WASCOL81162
20040502ATLCOL41370
20020925FLOMON10206
20020913NYNMON81162
19990515MONPIT61761
19990429SFNMON6561

By the way, the most errors I could find were nine by the Cubs on May 5, 1911 against the Reds in a 13-2 loss. I know there are nineteenth century games with more but Retrosheet does not have a record of them.

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?
2007-07-03 16:09
by Mike Carminati
Change is one thing, progress is another. "Change" is scientific, "progress" is ethical; change is indubitable, whereas progress is a matter of controversy.
—Bertrand "Don't Call Me Bill" Russell

On May 31, 2005, Buddy Bell was named to replace Tony Pena as the manager of the Royals. Pena had resigned three weeks earlier and was being spelled by bench coach Bob Schaefer on an interim basis. Bell quickly reeled off four victories in his first four games, their first four-game winning streak in two seasons, and has done nothing basically with the team in the last two years.

Less than one month later, on June 20, 2005, the Reds made a change replacing manager Dave Miley with former backup catcher Jerry Narron. Narron was first named the interim manager, but after guiding the Reds to a .500 record, he was awarded with a new, shorter title—manager. He proceeded to have a record in Cincy that was similarly marginal to Bell's, but he made the mistake of front-loading his tenure with some competency and an air of hope whereas Bell's Royal team has been consistently awful.

On August 4, 2005, the O's realized that they had Lee Mazzilli—Lee Mazzilli?—as their manager, something akin to putting Bon Jovi in the Rock'N'Roll Hall of Fame, and promptly fired him in favor of bench coach cum interim manager Sam Perlozzo. Despite going 23-32 with a .418 winning percentage over the rest of the season, the Orioles took the interim qualifier off Perlozzo's title because they weren't very bright after all. Repeat my comments about Bell's and Narron's most recent managerial tenures for Perlozzo and rinse.

On September 6, 2005, Lloyd McClendon was mercifully fired as the Pirates manager. Bench coach and former Phillie scrub Pete Mackanin took over the team on an interim basis compiling a decent 12-14 record but wisely did not repeat the managerial career of the aforementioned Bell, Narron, and Perlozzo though the Pirates' fortunes are not the better for it.

But what is of note about these four managerial changes two seasons ago? First, they represented the last midseason managerial changes in the majors for over a year. No managers changed hands during the season in 2006. There are just a handful of seasons in major-league history in which they happened, or didn't happen I guess, and just two in the last 65 years. They are in descending order 2006, 2000, 1942, 1931, 1926, 1920, 1903, 1901, 1893, and 1878.

Don't expect 2007 to appear on that list. All that changed rather quickly in the last two weeks.

That is the other thing that is of interest. Three of the characters in the narrative above are already involved in midseason managerial changes this season, and it's not too late for Bell to get into the action.

So far this year, three managers are already gone, two in the last couple of days. Jerry Narron has been, at least on an interim basis, replaced by Mackanin in Cincy. Mike Hargrove "up and quit", as the saying goes, in the middle of an eight-game win streak yet and was replaced by John McLaren, who once managed the Sex Pistols, if memory serves. June 18 the O's replaced Sam Perlozzo, who always seemed like an interim manager to me anyway, with Dave Trembley. I mean no slight against Mr. Trembly, but that name does not exactly inspire confidence in his managerial skills. Too bad Joe Girardi took one look at that mess of a team and quickly replied, "Thanks, but no thanks," to the O's request to take over the team.

If you are wondering what the "record" is for managerial changes in a season, the answer is 1890 when 18—count 'em, 18!—managers were let go during the season. In all fairness, there were three major leagues that season, as the players union formed a one-year "brotherhood" league, the Players National League or Players League for short. For two-league seasons, 1961 is tops with 16 midseason managerial maneuvers though all but six were the result of the Cubs' "College of Coaches", otherwise known as a manager by committee that was the brainchild of owner Philip K. Wrigley (El Tappe, Lou Klein, Vedie Himsl, and Harry Craft).

Here are the seasons with the most in-season managerial changes:

Yr#
189018
196116
188415
197712
199112
198611
189211
198810
196010
19809
19729
20029

Here's hoping that Charlie Manuel can help 2007 make that list.

Anyway, all this change coming almost at once a season after the owners thought it appropriate not to make any managerial changes made me wonder. In each of their cases, it wouldn't have mattered much if they were fired this year or less. It seems that a large percentage of managers—and McClendon was the epitome of this—slough along with a sub-par club that never seems to get much better.

So why not just make changes whenever your team is struggling a la George Steinbrenner circa 1978? I guess it gets expensive after a while, you know, all the new stationary, and there's always that guy who has to painstakingly paint the manager's name on the little glass window of his office door while everyone keeps opening and closing the door causing him to mess up repeatedly.

Besides does it work? Do teams fair better? Let's take a look.

I ran the numbers for all managers that started the season but were replaced at some point as well as for the managers that replaced them. Here are the results:

DecadeMgr1 WMgr1 LPCTMgr>1 WMgr>1 LPCTChange
1870s331358.480561616.477-.004
1880s8091138.41618542567.419.004
1890s566859.39719032677.416.018
1900s463607.43310581469.419-.014
1910s655821.44412771533.454.011
1920s537565.48711321166.493.005
1930s8911162.43415701939.447.013
1940s711960.42514771752.457.032
1950s8191031.44317952052.467.024
1960s18232105.46434664066.460-.004
1970s21272464.46337524283.467.004
1980s20792651.44040754813.458.019
1990s12391496.45325952984.465.012
2000s641835.43415522009.436.002
Overall1369117052.4452806733926.453.007

Not that in this past decade you really had to do a horrible job (.434 winning percentage) to get fired, but your replacement or replacements have not faired much better (a 2-point increase in winning percentage).

Historically, changing a team's manager resulted in just a 7-point improvement. Over the course of a full 162-game schedule, that means translates into less than one win.

Of course, teams most often make midseason changes not to reach the playoffs that season but rather to right their course and potentially set themselves for contention the next season. So how's that going?

Here are the managerial changes from above but now I have added the team's record in the next season with the change from before the managerial change. (Note that the numbers do not match those above for the early years of the game since some of these teams never made it to "next year" back then):

DecadeMgr1 WMgr1 LPCTYr2 WYr2 LPCTChange
1870s331358.480412394.511.031
1880s8091138.41615981798.471.055
1890s566859.39718182085.466.069
1900s463607.43312701240.506.073
1910s655821.44412411153.518.075
1920s537565.48711741126.510.023
1930s8911162.43417421774.495.061
1940s711960.42516071619.498.073
1950s8191031.44318741975.487.044
1960s18232105.46436473938.481.017
1970s21272464.46339484121.489.026
1980s20792651.44043774515.492.053
1990s12391496.45327682785.498.045
2000s641835.43416641899.467.033
Overall1369117052.4452914030422.489.044

So that is a 44-point improvement though these teams are still on average losing teams. For the three teams that switched managers midseason this year, that would translate into a .464 winning percentage for the O's (75-87), a .422 winning percentage for the Reds (68-94), and a .621 winning percentage for the M's (101-61) for next season. The first two are good bets—I'm not so sure about the 2008 Mariners.

Also, two of the newly appointed managers (McLaren and Trembley) are rookies—actually, McLaren managed the Mariners to a 4-0 record in 2001 when he substituted for then-manager Lou Piniella because of the death of his father-in-law. Mackanin is hardly a veteran himself with just 26 games as a major-league manager under his belt. Is it advisable to hire newbies or go with veteran managers when you dismiss the old guy?

First, let's broaden this to managerial changes in the offseason as well. Here are the records of all teams after they switch to a new manager whether midseason or at the start of the season:. For each the managerial turnover and overall team turnover rate are listed (Note: the records of new/expansion teams are included):

Decade#Mgr%Tm%WLPCT
1870s81104%74%12841522.458
1880s14289%53%41704893.460
1890s12288%43%41254977.453
1900s7046%31%34204170.451
1910s7341%28%39464416.472
1920s5836%23%30303398.471
1930s6239%20%28963320.466
1940s5333%17%25782725.486
1950s5937%20%31843479.478
1960s11860%25%51405663.476
1970s11145%20%51985544.484
1980s12347%22%60186324.488
1990s8731%16%46834967.485
2000s6631%19%40824480.477
Total122548%26%5375459878.473

Now here are records for teams that retained their manager from the end of the previous season:

Decade#%WLPCT
1870s2026%684443.607
1880s7447%44243701.544
1890s7957%51574305.545
1900s10569%77166967.526
1910s12772%91688698.513
1920s12377%92278859.510
1930s12880%93238899.512
1940s13383%96999552.504
1950s12880%91318836.508
1960s14975%1078210259.512
1970s19880%1459714251.506
1980s20478%1429713991.505
1990s23484%1690416620.504
2000s17081%1291512517.508
Total187274%134024127898.512

OK, maybe that's not a big surprise: winning teams don't fire their managers.

Let's look at midseason vs. end of season managerial changes. Which is the best way to go?

In Season ChangesStart of Season Changes
Decade#%PCT#%PCT
1870s2431%.4735773%.455
1880s5736%.4228553%.474
1890s6346%.4245943%.469
1900s2315%.4084731%.461
1910s2414%.4664928%.473
1920s2113%.4973723%.465
1930s3019%.4663220%.466
1940s2616%.4922717%.484
1950s2717%.4893220%.473
1960s6935%.4564925%.486
1970s6326%.4724820%.490
1980s6726%.4805622%.491
1990s4315%.4774416%.489
2000s2612%.4374019%.490
Total56322%.46066226%.478

Overall, it's advisable apparently to wait for the end of the season if possible. Teams seem to be realizing that as midseason firings are have been going down since the Eighties.

So what about rookie managers? I took a look at managers in their first season and compared their records when they start the season to when they are a midseason replacement (Remember what happened to Drive?):

Debuts--Start of SeasonDebuts--Midseason
Decade#%PCT#%PCT
1870s3444%.4451823%.502
1880s5031%.4783119%.380
1890s2619%.4174230%.432
1900s2516%.4441711%.416
1910s2615%.4611911%.482
1920s2113%.45296%.486
1930s159%.4671811%.451
1940s128%.4881610%.453
1950s1610%.489159%.452
1960s2513%.4934121%.446
1970s219%.4863414%.460
1980s239%.4742911%.476
1990s207%.484259%.484
2000s189%.495168%.413
Total33213%.47133013%.449

Again, it's best to stick a rookie in there when it is the start of the season.

Finally, it appears that Trembley et al have little to fear about losing their jobs during the season. The 2000s have witnessed just four teams that have made more than one managerial change, the last being the aforementioned 2005 Royals:

Decade#Tms w/Mult Mgr changes%
1870s912%
1880s2717%
1890s2115%
1900s85%
1910s85%
1920s85%
1930s74%
1940s96%
1950s53%
1960s1910%
1970s156%
1980s197%
1990s93%
2000s42%
Total1687%

One Final Note: The third entry in my series on umpires is up at Baseball Prospectus. This one's on umpiring "homer"-ism—Doh!

Screwing Up The All-Star Rosters
2007-07-02 21:42
by Mike Carminati

[With nods to my friend Chris, "The Baseball Procrastinator", for the title]

Mike Bauman at MLB.COM opines that "[t]he voting for the 2007 All-Star Game indicates, more than anything else, that the fans have been paying attention." I beg to differ with the estimable Mr. Bauman—truthfully, I don't know if writing for MLB requires more than a head for the byline picture—, but the fans' vote was as unfathomable as ever to me.

I mean, there were a few favorable signs: Russell Martin, Prince Fielder, Chase Utley, all are young players that are the best at their respective positions that were tabbed to start the All-Star Game by the fans. But really Martin and Utley had no real competition and these plusses in no way outweigh the minuses at other positions.

Selecting Ivan Rodriguez was particularly indefensible given that he is not even in the top five catchers in the AL this year. Pudge is not in Jorge Posada's or Victor Martinez's league, so to speak. Placido Polanco is having a nice season as usual, but Brian Roberts should have been the starting second baseman. Cabrera was a better choice than David Wright at third. Carlos Beltran may have been a worse choice than Pudge Rodriguez—there were nine outfielders that were arguably better than him but did not get chosen.

Actually, Bauman chides the fans for picking Barry Bonds was a "sentimental vote" that it indicates that the " the Giants' 'Vote Bonds' campaign was a big success" and that "voters were willing to overlook the steroid allegations, and give a nod to the weight of Bonds' career". This is completely ludicrous. Bonds is not only arguably still the best outfielder in baseball, he is among the top handful of players in the National League at the age of 42. Bonds is one that the fans got right.

As for the players and managers, they had more than their fair share of bad picks. J.J. Hardy was tabbed as the backup at short for the NL, but Edgar Renteria was a better pick. They also picked Alfonso Soriano, the eighth best NL outfielder, and Carlos Lee, the 15th. In the AL, the players took Justin Morneau, largely because he is the reigning league MVP. He is having a fine season, but at first, he might be the sixth best candidate. They also picked Manny Being Manny Ramirez, the 13th best OF candidate.

By the way, I have to mention that Morneau got tabbed largely because he is the current AL MVP, but the reigning NL MVP got no respect, not even in his hometown. Ryan Howard was the 24th best position player in the NL (by my method below) while Morneau was 23rd, and Howard's been even better since he returned from early season injuries. But Howard is batting in the .250s, so the NL pollsters completely overlook him. What is worse is that in Philly the talk is all about Jimmy Rollins getting snubbed, even though there are two clearly better shortstops who aren't going either. In my opinion, none of these three players should go to the ASG, but it's curious that Morneau can be tabbed to be the only true first baseman on the AL roster.

Tony LaRussa made maybe the worst selection, Freddy Sanchez, arguably the 55th best position player in the NL, as a reserve at second. He overlooked Edgar Renteria, perhaps the best SS candidate. In the AL, Jim Leyland made some very fine selections in Victor Martinez and Brian Roberts, arguably the best players at their respective positions in the league. However, Leyland also picked seventh-best shortstop, Michael Young, and the fourteenth best outfielder, Carl Crawford, and before you say that he had to take Crawford as the obligatory D-Ray, I would argue that Carlos Pena and B.J. Upton were both better selections (even Brendan Harris was). In fact, they were in the top two at their respective positions in the league. With DH David Ortiz as the starting first baseman, Leyland had cause to pick another first baseman—there are four in the NL.

And top-ten players Curtis Granderson, Kevin Youkilis, Eric Byrnes, and Edgar Renteria were the big snubs.

As far as the method I used, I ranked the top eighty or so players per league by OPS and then added in rankings for Baseball Prospectus' VORP and Bill James' Win Shares. Ranked the players finally by the average rank. And here are the final results by position:

PLAYERTEAMOPSRankWSRankVORPRankAvg RankRankPOSAll-Star?Voted By
Russell MartinLAD.8383315426.016 17.67 18CStarterF/P
Bengie MolinaSFO.7495275210.346 50.00 50C
Brian McCannATL.742577528.750 53.00 51CReserveP
Johnny EstradaMIL.727635577.755 58.33 59C
Paul Lo DucaNYM.710704599.349 59.33 64C
Michael BarrettCHC/SDG.708714595.363 64.33 68C
Prince FielderMIL.985314731.29 6.33 41BStarterF/P
Albert PujolsSTL.946815427.612 8.00 61BReserveM
Derrek LeeCHC.92511121526.814 13.33 111BReserveP
Dmitri YoungWAS.89419131223.921 17.33 171BReserveM
Todd HeltonCOL.89517112622.224 22.33 231B
Ryan HowardPHI.93110112618.332 22.67 241B
Adrian GonzalezSDG.8313714716.735 26.33 311B
Lance BerkmanHOU.8423193314.637 33.67 371B
Chase UtleyPHI.985317141.51 1.67 12BStarterF/P
Orlando HudsonARI.85528121522.823 22.00 222BReserveP
Dan UgglaFLA.83334121520.130 26.33 312B
Kelly JohnsonATL.84430112619.731 29.00 352B
Brandon PhillipsCIN.7874184713.339 42.33 442B
Mark DeRosaCHC.8153884711.843 42.67 452B
Jeff KentLAD.8004084712.441 42.67 452B
Freddy SanchezPIT.706729335.561 55.33 552BReserveM
Marcus GilesSDG.6717911261.168 57.67 582B
Miguel CabreraFLA.976515437.93 4.00 23BReserveP
David WrightNYM.8782114729.511 13.00 93BStarterF
Chipper JonesATL1.011293331.87 14.00 123B
Aramis RamirezCHC.9201284721.526 28.33 343B
Jose BautistaPIT.766489339.947 42.67 453B
Edgar RenteriaATL.8792014731.48 11.67 7SS
Jose ReyesNYM.8512916235.35 12.00 8SSStarterF/P
Hanley RamirezFLA.87622121535.16 14.33 13SS
Jimmy RollinsPHI.84132121525.917 21.33 21SS
J.J. HardyMIL.85826121521.227 22.67 24SSReserveP
Troy TulowitzkiCOL.7834393312.142 39.33 40SS
Barry BondsSFO1.1191131240.62 5.00 3LFStarterF
Matt HollidayCOL.9756131235.54 7.33 5LFReserveP
Eric ByrnesARI.8762216226.415 13.00 9LF
Aaron RowandPHI.8682414726.913 14.67 14CFReserveM
Corey HartMIL.92012121524.819 15.33 15RF
Ken Griffey Jr.CIN.964793329.610 16.67 16RFStarterF/P
Hunter PenceHOU.938993325.818 20.00 19CF
Alfonso SorianoCHC.89616112624.819 20.33 20LFReserveP
Chris DuncanSTL.89517121516.536 22.67 24LF
Luis GonzalezLAD.86625121520.329 23.00 27LF
Brad HawpeCOL.90515112620.728 23.00 27RF
Carlos BeltranNYM.83235121523.622 24.00 29CFStarterF
Adam DunnCIN.9131493321.925 24.00 29LF
Josh WillinghamFLA.83235121517.234 28.00 33LF
Carlos LeeHOU.8582693317.533 30.67 36LFReserveP
Xavier NadyPIT.8103993311.744 38.67 38RF
Mike CameronSDG.7734693314.138 39.00 39CF
Ryan ChurchWAS.7724711269.848 40.33 41CF
Bill HallMIL.7824493311.145 40.67 42CF
Jason BayPIT.784429338.750 41.67 43LF

And in the AL:

PLAYERTEAMOPSRankWSRankVORPRankAvg RankRankPOSAll-Star?Voted By
Victor MartinezCLE.9261217434.68 8.00 6CReserveM
Jorge PosadaNYY.93011102734.29 15.67 17CReserveP
Joe MauerMIN.84728112018.534 27.33 28C
Kenji JohjimaSEA.8084193817.238 39.00 39C
Jason VaritekBOS.7954365813.744 48.33 51C
Ivan RodriguezDET.736668438.259 56.00 60CStarterF
David OrtizBOS.9874131234.87 7.67 4DH/1BStarterF
Kevin YoukilisBOS.9241314929.614 12.00 81B
Carlos PenaTAM.9846131223.419 12.33 101B
Mark TeixeiraTEX.9597102724.018 17.33 181B
Casey KotchmanLAA.90315102721.425 22.33 211B
Justin MorneauMIN.9011693822.720 24.67 231BReserveP
Travis HafnerCLE.8492793818.732 32.33 33DH
Brian RobertsBAL.87021131236.05 12.67 112BReserveM
B.J. UptonTAM.9419121624.417 14.00 152B
Dustin PedroiaBOS.85624112018.831 25.00 252B
Placido PolancoDET.79942121619.230 29.33 322BStarterF/P
Aaron HillTOR.77853112011.852 41.67 412B
Ian KinslerTEX.7874684313.145 44.67 422B
Mark EllisOAK.76358102710.854 46.33 452B
Alex RodriguezNYY1.105117455.21 2.00 13BStarterF/P
Mike LowellBOS.86323102720.428 26.00 273BReserveP
Troy GlausTOR.8981784317.238 32.67 343B
Casey BlakeCLE.8114065815.441 46.33 453B
Melvin MoraBAL.7924565814.542 48.33 513B
Brandon IngeDET.7874684310.356 48.33 513B
Derek JeterNYY.8812015831.611 13.00 12SSStarterF/P
Carlos GuillenDET.9498112031.212 13.33 13SSReserveP
Orlando CabreraLAA.8323316630.613 17.33 18SS
Jhonny PeraltaCLE.8363114922.621 20.33 20SS
Brendan HarrisTAM.83631102721.026 28.00 29SS
Miguel TejadaBAL.7835075318.035 46.00 44SS
Michael YoungTEX.74365102712.748 46.67 48SSReserveM
Magglio OrdonezDET1.061219251.32 2.00 1RFStarterF/P
Vladimir GuerreroLAA.987419240.34 3.33 3RFStarterF/P
Ichiro SuzukiSEA.8851920144.93 7.67 4CFStarterF/P
Grady SizemoreCLE.8682216635.16 11.33 7CFReserve
Curtis GrandersonDET.90614131232.510 12.00 8CF
Gary SheffieldDET.93110121629.515 13.67 14DH
Torii HunterMIN.8941814928.516 14.33 16CFReserveP
Jack CustOAK1.026384320.527 24.33 22DH
Alex RiosTOR.85126102722.621 24.67 23RFReserveM
Reggie WillitsLAA.82934112021.923 25.67 26LF
Nick SwisherOAK.84728102719.529 28.00 29LF
Michael CuddyerMIN.82635112018.732 29.00 31RF
Manny RamirezBOS.8522593818.035 32.67 34LFReserveP
Carl CrawfordTAM.79444121614.542 34.00 36LFReserveM
Kenny LoftonTEX.8173984321.824 35.33 37CF
Gary Matthews Jr.LAA.78251102717.637 38.33 38CF
Mark TeahenKAN.78052112013.046 39.33 40RF
This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
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