Baseball Toaster Mike's Baseball Rants
Help
Monthly archives: May 2007

 

A Short Trip off a Long Pier
2007-05-31 09:33
by Mike Carminati

Well, that was quick.

The Phils swept their way past the Braves in Atlanta all the way up to two games above .500. Then they return to Philly and get swept by the D-Backs in a series riddled with Phils miscues.

Yesterday's game ended with pinch-hitting Ryan Howard lining into a double play when potential tying run Michael Bourn strayed to far from second. Howard smoked the ball but right at second baseman Orlando Hudson who was in his Howard shift position in short right. I can appreciate that Bourn was trying to score from second, but going on contact when you are the tying run and double play will end the game? Bourn gave me agita just by stealing second just before the line out.

In the previous game Bourn ran into the wall going after a ball that ended up at his feet. He's symbolic of this team's inability to develop fundamentally sound ballplayers.

Anyway, the Phils trip into non-Loserdom lasted three games, three games above .500. Let's say they never establish a winning record for the remainder of the season. They would become just 216th team in baseball history to exceed .500 for three or fewer games in a season, and the 34th for exactly three games (the last being the 2001 Baltimore Orioles who ended up 63-98).

The Phils have now player 53 games, one more and they will have played exactly one-third of a season. They will have three games over .500 out of their first 54 games.

No playoff team or league winner has ever been over .500 fewer than 26 games and that was 1871 Philly A's who only played 28 games. None since the founding of the National League has been over .500 fewer than 31 games (1984 Royals).

Here are the playoff teams/league winners with the fewest games over .500:

YrTeamGs over .500%WLPOS
1871Philadelphia Athletics2692.9%2171
1984Kansas City Royals3119.1%84781
1973New York Mets4125.5%82791
1974Pittsburgh Pirates4527.8%88741
1989Toronto Blue Jays4628.4%89731
1872Boston Red Stockings48102.1%3981
1981Houston Astros5247.3%61493
1878Boston Red Caps5591.7%41191
1873Boston Red Stockings5593.2%43161
1877Boston Red Caps5693.3%42181
1882Chicago White Stockings6577.4%55291
1995New York Yankees6645.8%79652
1876Chicago White Stockings66100.0%52141
1882Cincinnati Red Stockings6682.5%55251

The Phils have been over .500 just 5.6% of this season. Here are playoff teams who had a winning record for less than half the season. None come close to 5.6%:

YrTeamGs over .500%WLPOS
1984Kansas City Royals3119.1%84781
1973New York Mets4125.5%82791
1974Pittsburgh Pirates4527.8%88741
1989Toronto Blue Jays4628.4%89731
1914Boston Braves6743.8%94591
1995New York Yankees6645.8%79652
1981Houston Astros5247.3%61493
2005Houston Astros7848.1%89732
2001Oakland Athletics7848.1%102602
2003Florida Marlins7948.8%91712

By the way, here are the teams that did not make the playoffs but had a winning record for 162 or more games:

YrTeamGs over .500WLPOS
1962Los Angeles Dodgers163102632
1969Chicago Cubs16392702
1973San Francisco Giants16288743
2001Minnesota Twins16285772
2000Arizona Diamondbacks16285773
1999San Francisco Giants16286762
1989Texas Rangers16283794
1985New York Mets16298642
1980Cincinnati Reds16289733
1979Houston Astros16289732
2001Philadelphia Phillies16286762
1977St. Louis Cardinals16283793
1966Pittsburgh Pirates16292703
1964Philadelphia Phillies16292702
1967Cincinnati Reds16287754
1962St. Louis Cardinals16284786
1966Detroit Tigers16288743
1963San Francisco Giants16288743
1964San Francisco Giants16290724
1970California Angels16286763
1963St. Louis Cardinals16293692

The Phils have one day to lick their wounds before the Barry Bonds show comes to town to continue his assault on the home run record. And, as always, Leon is getting laaaaaaaarger.

Sure Beats Losing
2007-05-29 10:00
by Mike Carminati
There are two great pleasures in gambling: that of winning and that of losing.
—French proverb

I go away for the weekend and what do the Phillies do? They sweep the Braves and finally go over .500. It took them 49 games, but they finally did it. They even discovered a lefty reliever (Mike Zagursky) who can get the ball over the plate.

Let's not get too excited. They are still in third place in the NL East, 7 games behind the Mets. The NL wild card, as always, is up for grabs with the Phils currently in fourth, 3.5 games behind the leader, the Dodgers.

So will the Phils continue to win or does this current surge presage a backslide typical of this monumentally streaky team? How do teams that take this long to cross the .500 mark typically perform over the long haul of a full season? Let's see…

I took a look at when each teams in baseball history and for each noted the first game in which they had a winning record, their overall, and how they performed in the postseason.

Note that of the twenty-two hundred team years in baseball history, just 65 took as long or longer than the Phils to establish a winning record. Here are the latest to do so. Note that the '74 Pirates are the only ones to qualify for postseason play:

YrTm1st G over .500WLPCTPOSWon DivWon WCWon LgWon WS
1997Detroit Tigers1577983.4883NNNN
1915Buffalo Blues1387478.4876 N
2006Florida Marlins1377884.4814NNNN
1988San Diego Padres1358378.5163N NN
1980Atlanta Braves1318180.5034N NN
1996Boston Red Sox1318577.5253NNNN
1902Cincinnati Reds1287070.5004 N
1990Kansas City Royals1257586.4666N NN
1984Houston Astros1258082.4942N NN
1980San Francisco Giants1237586.4665N NN
1974Pittsburgh Pirates1178874.5431Y NN
1902Cleveland Bronchos1166967.5075 N
1982San Francisco Giants1118775.5373N NN
1940St. Louis Cardinals1098469.5493 NN
1958Chicago White Sox1068272.5322 NN
1984New York Yankees1058775.5373N NN
2004Cleveland Indians998082.4943NNNN
1962Milwaukee Braves998676.5315 NN
1901Philadelphia Athletics987462.5444 N
1945Cleveland Indians987372.5035 NN

As for the overall results, here they are grouped in ten-game increments:

1st G over .500#TeamsWLPCT Avg POS Won WCWon DivWon LgWon WS
1-91887144,783136,852.514 3.86 215523397
10-1915812,06311,500.512 4.10 21173
20-29665,0974,757.517 3.86 2493
30-39403,1093,002.509 3.78 0122
40-49251,9701,728.533 3.56 2321
50-5912877878.500 4.17 0000
60-6911855810.514 4.09 0000
70-795414381.521 3.20 0000
80-8910771740.510 3.70 0000
90-9910810731.526 4.20 0011
100-1093253216.539 2.67 0000
110-1193244216.530 3.00 0100
120-1294300324.481 4.25 0000
130-1395401397.503 4.00 0000
150-15917983.488 3.00 0000

Note that of all the teams to clear the .500 hurdle, almost all (84.2%) did so in their first nine games. 91% had established a winning record by game 19.

Slightly over ninety percent of all playoff teams established a winning record before playing their tenth game. Just 1.56% made the playoffs when after taking at least 40 games to clear the .500 mark.

That said, there is very little correlation between when a team establishes a winning record and whether they will continue to win (coefficient of -0.284).

So what does it all mean? The Phils have an extremely remote shot at making the postseason, but there is no reason to think that their slow assault on a winning record consigns them to falling below .500 again. In other words, they will probably have another ever so slightly above .500, typical Phillies season. So what else is new?

Well, Mike Zagurski is. He got a callup from Double-A Reading over the weekend and pitched solidly for the Phils twice. Given that their previous lefties in the pen, Matt Smith (11.25 ERA and 11 walks in four innings) and Fabio Castro (12.27) have been execrable at best, Zagurski is a welcome addition. But before we get too fired up, keep in mind that this kid has just eight appearances above Single A for his professional career.

He did have extremely impressive stats to start the year at Single-A Clearwater, striking out nearly two men an inning (30 in 16.1 IP) and had five saves in twelve games. But let's allow the kid to establish himself as a legitimate major-leaguer before we anoint him the closer.

Besides given the Phils success with first-year lefty relievers, it doesn't look hopeful. Just two registered more than one save, Mac Scarce (in '72) and Wally Ritchie ('87). Here are the only first-year lefties to ever record a save for the Phils:

PitcherYrRAGSWLSVIPERAWHIPK per 9IPK per BBBA Opp
Mac Scarce197231012436.73.441.649.822.00.220
Wally Ritchie198749032362.33.751.196.501.55.250
Deke White18952110117.39.871.103.120.46.250
Don Carman1983100011.00.000.000.000.00.000
Fabio Castro200616001123.31.540.815.012.17.158
Frank O'Connor1893210014.011.252.250.000.00.140
Frank Scanlan19096000111.01.640.914.091.00.210
George Darrow19349826149.05.510.862.570.50.300
Harry Smythe192912746168.75.240.391.570.80.330
Mike Wallace197317311133.33.781.055.401.33.300
Pretzel Pezzullo193534735184.36.400.822.560.53.320
Seth Morehead195733111158.73.680.955.521.80.250
Tom Jacquez2000900017.311.051.237.362.00.000

The Phils have just been able to muster a handful of lefties that have appeared in at least 20 games as a first-year reliever:

PitcherYrRAGSWLSVIPERAWHIPK per 9IPK per BBBA Opp
Wally Ritchie198749032362.33.751.196.501.55.250
Pretzel Pezzullo193534735184.36.400.822.560.53.320
Seth Morehead195733111158.73.680.955.521.80.250
Mac Scarce197231012436.73.441.649.822.00.220
Eddie Oropesa200130010019.04.741.687.110.88.232
Lefty Smoll1940249280109.05.370.612.560.86.320
Andy Carter199420002034.34.460.874.721.50.240

As a matter of fact, probably the best lefty specialist that they developed was Chuck McElroy who was a decent middle reliever for the Cubs for a number of years. Not much to build from in that tradition.

Crossing the Ruben Amaro-con
2007-05-25 10:52
by Mike Carminati

For a team that many picked to contend, this Phils team seems to have a fear of having a winning record. For the fourth time this season—all within the course of seven games—, the Phils lost after reaching the .500 mark last night, 5-4 to the Marlins in 11.

The Phillies lost two of three in the Marlins series due to various and sundry miscues—yesterday third base coach Steve Smith sending pinch-runner and potential tying run Michael Bourn who ended up being out at home by a good six feet, two separate miscues in two separate games by veteran defensive specialist Rod Barrajas each allowing a run, Greg Dobbs' brain fart of throwing home on Hanley Ramirez' bunt with a two-run lead and a man on third, leaving the bases loaded in the top of the llth yesterday. Oh, and they also lost their closer, their second on the year, for who knows how long.

The Phils seemed destined to reside at or below .500 all season. The record for games at .500 is 35 by the 1959 Cubs (see below), but this team seems destined to destroy it. Here are the teams with the most games at .500—note that none made the postseason:

YrTeamGs at .500WLPOS
1959Chicago Cubs3574806
1939Brooklyn Dodgers3484693
1993Chicago Cubs3384784
1999Pittsburgh Pirates3278833
1971Houston Astros3179834
1998Los Angeles Dodgers3183793
2002Montreal Expos3083792
1957Detroit Tigers3078764
1904St. Louis Cardinals2975795
1974Chicago White Sox2980804
1997Pittsburgh Pirates2979832
1983Kansas City Royals2879832
1985Chicago White Sox2885773
1903Brooklyn Superbas2770665
1984Montreal Expos2778835
2005New York Mets2783793
1991Cincinnati Reds2674885
1992St. Louis Cardinals2683793
1996Houston Astros2682802
1910Cincinnati Reds2675795
1958Detroit Tigers2677775
1898Pittsburgh Pirates2672768
1962Detroit Tigers2685764
1993Seattle Mariners2682804

As for the closer or lack thereof, it seems that the Phils are seriously considering 37-year-old Troy Percival, who last pitched, and quite ineffectively, for Detroit in 2005. With no one else having "closer stuff", the Phils will inevitably turn to former closer Antonio Alfonseca, who has wavered between pitching very and well and residing in Charlie Manuel's doghouse all season. I would prefer that they turn to 26-year-old Anderson Garcia, who has been closing very effectively at Reading this year (7 saves, 3.12 ERA, 19 strikeouts in 17.1 innings, 0.98 WHIP). Whoever the Phils turn to will have to avoid the seemingly inevitable injuries that result from Charlie "I Need A Frickin'" Manuel's inability to use a bullpen and overuse of his relievers who produce.

The Phils seemed destined to be the first team in two years with a closer who has at least double-digit save totals. The last were the 2005 Tigers:

YrTeamCloserSvTeam SV
2005Detroit TigersFernando Rodney937
2005Detroit TigersUgueth Urbina937
2003Detroit TigersChris Mears527
2003Detroit TigersFranklyn German527
1998Florida MarlinsMatt Mantei924
1996Detroit TigersGregg Olson822
1994Cleveland IndiansJeff Russell521
1994Cleveland IndiansPaul Shuey521
1994Detroit TigersMike Henneman820
1994Pittsburgh PiratesAlejandro Pena724
1990Atlanta BravesJoe Boever830
1987Cleveland IndiansDoug Jones825
1987Detroit TigersEric King931
1987Kansas City RoyalsDan Quisenberry826
1987Kansas City RoyalsGene Garber826
1985Cleveland IndiansTom Waddell928
1985Pittsburgh PiratesJohn Candelaria929

If they get another pitcher to save at least five to go along with Tom Gordon (5 saves) and Bret Myers (6), they will join this short list of teams without a ten-save closer but with at least three pitchers with five. Of course, they all predated the advent of the modern closer but then again, so does Pat Gillick:

YrTeamCloserSvTeam SV# w/ 5 Svs
1947Chicago White Sox82753
1934Boston Braves52053
1962Chicago White Sox62853
1973Houston Astros62663
1948Philadelphia Athletics51853

The Phils also have a good shot of passing the all-time "record" for most relievers, 22, by the 2002 Padres. The Phils have used 12 through the first quarter of a season and, which will grow to 13 if and when Myers goes on the DL. Also, they currently have no left-handed specialists nor, apparently, a real closer on the roster so you should expect that number to balloon soon. Here's the competition for the most relievers ever:

YrTeam# RPsSv
2002San Diego Padres2240
2000Cleveland Indians1934
2004Cleveland Indians1832
2004Boston Red Sox1836
2000St. Louis Cardinals1837
1997Kansas City Royals1829
2000San Diego Padres1846
2003Cleveland Indians1734
2006Washington Nationals1732
2005Arizona Diamondbacks1745
2006Cincinnati Reds1736
2005Florida Marlins1742
2002Detroit Tigers1733
1995Florida Marlins1728
2005Atlanta Braves1738
1996California Angels1738
Profiles in Mediocrity
2007-05-20 22:24
by Mike Carminati

The Phils won again today as Adam Eaton continued his recent turn at competency. In his last three starts, Eaton has allowed four runs in 20.2 innings and lowered his ERA from 8.18 to 5.70 even though he is just 1-1 over that span (though the Phils did win his no decision).

The Phils now find themselves again at .500 for the third time this season but have yet to have a winning record. Should this remain unchanged—that is, if the Phils never get over .500—they will become the 18th team in major-league history to hit .500 three times in a season without ever surpassing it.

Here are the previous 17:

YrTeam#Gs at .500First G over 500WLPCTPOS
1983Minnesota Twins5 7092.4326
1946St. Louis Browns5 6688.4297
1982Toronto Blue Jays4 7884.4816
1926Boston Red Sox4 46107.3018
2005Kansas City Royals3 56106.3465
2001Pittsburgh Pirates3 62100.3836
1991San Francisco Giants3 7587.4634
1977San Francisco Giants3 7587.4634
1968New York Mets3 7389.4519
1968California Angels3 6795.4148
1964Washington Senators3 62100.3839
1957Washington Senators3 5599.3578
1933Philadelphia Phillies3 6092.3957
1922Boston Red Sox3 6193.3968
1916Pittsburgh Pirates3 6589.4226
1900New York Giants3 6078.4358
1891Columbus Solons3 6176.4456

The best teams to hit but never break .500 are as follows:

YrTeamFirst G at 500WLPCTPOSDiv WinWC WinLg WinWS Win
1923Washington Senators67578.4904 NN
1981Kansas City Royals25053.4854Y NN
1982Toronto Blue Jays27884.4816N NN
1995New York Mets46975.4792NNNN
1937Washington Senators27380.4776 NN
1973Atlanta Braves67685.4725N NN
1992Cleveland Indians27686.4695N NN
1932New York Giants507282.4687 NN
1975Chicago White Sox27586.4665N NN
1985Philadelphia Phillies1367587.4635N NN
1991San Francisco Giants127587.4634N NN
1977San Francisco Giants67587.4634N NN
1987Texas Rangers27587.4636N NN

The '81 Royals won the "first half" title in that strike-interrupted season and then got swept in the division series by the Billy Ball A's. They are the only team on the list to make the playoffs.

One of these days this team is going to back into a winning record, but there's no reason to doubt that the Phils can't match the '83 Twins and '46 Browns for the "record" for most times reaching but never exceeding mediocrity.

A Split, The Hard Way
2007-05-19 21:11
by Mike Carminati

The Red Sox and Braves split two games today at Fenway by scores of 14-0 and 13-3. Aint interleague play grand?

It is the first time since 1978 that two teams split a doubleheader each with double-digit run differentials. It's the second time since 1946 that it's happened and the fourteenth time in baseball history.

Also, there have been just four such doubleheaders in which the overall run differential has been greater than the 24 run edge in today's doubleheader, and the last of those was in 1931:

DateHome TeamAway TeamGame#Home RAway RDiffGame#Home RAway RDiffTot Diff
20070519Boston Red SoxAtlanta Braves10141421331024
19780727New York YankeesCleveland Indians11101125171223
19460924Chicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates11331020131323
19420705Chicago White SoxSt. Louis Browns11421222131123
19350821St. Louis BrownsNew York Yankees12141221431123
19310812Cleveland IndiansNew York Yankees11181721771027
19270709Detroit TigersNew York Yankees17191221441022
19100913New York GiantsPittsburgh Pirates11111021531222
18990927Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies11101120151526
18990924Cincinnati RedsChicago Orphans15211621111026
18970903New York GiantsCincinnati Reds11111021331020
18970825Boston BeaneatersLouisville Colonels11771020111121
18940807Brooklyn GroomsBaltimore Orioles15211621881026
18940803Philadelphia PhilliesBaltimore Orioles11441023161323
.500—Prepare for Glory!
2007-05-17 09:18
by Mike Carminati

"Phillies! Ready your breakfast and eat hearty... For tonight, we dine in hell! (or at least at Pat's)"

Last Tuesday, a Tony Clark home run helped the Spartans, er, D-Backs felled the Phils, 3-2. The team was suffering through a 3-6 road trip and had fallen to 14-19 on the season. They were closer to the worst team in baseball (5 games ahead of the Nats) than they were to first place in the NL East (6.5 games).

In the last game of the road trip, the Phils road a Ryan Howard pinch-hit grand slam to a 9-3 victory. The Phillies have now won six of seven and with a win tonight, can complete a four-game sweep of the Brewers, who came into the series with the best record in the National League.

During the stretch, Cole Hamels has come into his own as the team ace, winning two games including a perfect game for six innings (which I again mooshed). Hamels now co-leads the NL in wins at 6-1 (with 6-2 Roy Oswalt) and is second in strikeouts (70). He now projects to 23-4 for the season with 270 Ks, which would be the best record for a Phils pitcher 25 years old or younger since Hall-of-Famer Robin Roberts went 28-7 at the age of 25 in 1952.

The Phils have not had a history of success with young pitchers (Pat Combs, anyone?). In fact, there have been only ten seasons in which a Phillie youngster has won at least 15 since the 1950 Whiz Kids:

NameYrAge Pitch WS WL ERA
Kevin Gross198524 13.0 1513 3.41
Larry Christenson197723 11.2 196 4.06
Rick Wise197125 21.4 1714 2.88
Rick Wise196923 14.0 1513 3.23
Art Mahaffey196224 16.6 1914 3.94
Curt Simmons195324 18.8 1613 3.21
Robin Roberts195225 31.8 287 2.59
Robin Roberts195124 27.7 2115 3.03
Robin Roberts195023 25.6 2011 3.02
Curt Simmons195021 16.3 178 3.40

The Phils have had only six pitchers 25 or under who have won twenty games since the turn of the twentieth century:

NameYrAge Pitch WS WL ERA
Robin Roberts195225 31.8 287 2.59
Robin Roberts195124 27.7 2115 3.03
Robin Roberts195023 25.6 2011 3.02
Eppa Rixey191625 23.5 2210 1.85
Erskine Mayer191425 20.7 2119 2.58
Tom Seaton191325 29.3 2712 2.60
Pete Alexander191124 33.9 2813 2.57
George McQuillan190823 32.9 2317 1.53

But I digress…from the headline you can tell that the Phils have reached the previously unattainable magic number of .500. It took them forty games to do it, but they finally have as many losses as wins. Since starting the season with six losses in their first seven games, the Phils did not come within one game of .500 until two days but came within two games of mediocrity seven times.

One quarter of the season is over, and they finally reached mediocrity.

Of course, the Phils never do what you expect them to do. After losing reigning MVP Howard and half the bullpen to injuries, that's when they go on a tear?!? Meanwhile Greg Dobbs channels the ghost Lou Gehrig with a .471 batting average and a 1.236 OPS in Howard's absence. Go figure.

They now become the 49th team in baseball history to reach .500 no earlier than their fortieth game. In the last ten years, just the 2005 Pirates (reaching .500 in game 60 en route to a 67-95 season) and the 2001 Marlins (game 66, 76-86 record) have reached .500 later.

Those teams have averaged an 82-80 record over the course of the season and just two, the 1914 Miracle Braves and the '74 Pirates have made the playoffs and just one (the Braves) have won a Series.

By the way, the 1985 version of the Phils (think John Felske and GlennBo) hold the dubious record of reaching .500 the latest of any team in major-league history, in their 136th game. After reaching 68-68, however, they went 7-19 down the stretch to end up fifth in the NL East. Here are the twelve latest teams to reach .500:

YrTeam.500 GWLPCTPOSDiv WinWC WinLg WinWS Win
1985Philadelphia Phillies1367587.4635N NN
1988San Diego Padres1348378.5163N NN
1996Boston Red Sox1288577.5253NNNN
1980Atlanta Braves1268180.5034N NN
1902Cincinnati Reds1177070.5004 N
1974Pittsburgh Pirates1168874.5431Y NN
1901Philadelphia Athletics977462.5444 N
1940St. Louis Cardinals948469.5493 NN
1917Brooklyn Robins947081.4647 NN
1959St. Louis Cardinals927183.4617 NN
1914Boston Braves919459.6141 YY
1945Cleveland Indians897372.5035 NN

Below are the best records for all teams that reached .500 no earlier than game 40. The best are the '14 Braves who did not reach .500 until their 91st game (45-45-1) unbelievably went 49-14 (.778) thereafter. Don't expect that from the Phils:

YrTeam.500 GWLPCTRankDiv WinWC WinLg WinWS Win
1914Boston Braves919459.6141 YY
1944Detroit Tigers408866.5712 NN
1921St. Louis Cardinals448766.5693 NN
1978Baltimore Orioles509071.5594N NN
1920New York Giants848668.5582 NN
1950New York Giants568668.5583 NN
1940St. Louis Cardinals948469.5493 NN
1873New York Mutuals402924.5474 N
1901Philadelphia Athletics977462.5444 N
1974Pittsburgh Pirates1168874.5431Y NN
1940Chicago White Sox838272.5324 NN
1956Detroit Tigers428272.5325 NN
1962Milwaukee Braves788676.5315 NN
1913Boston Red Sox517971.5274 NN
1996Boston Red Sox1288577.5253NNNN
1983Houston Astros628577.5253N NN
1993Baltimore Orioles608577.5253N NN
No Bull
2007-05-16 09:18
by Mike Carminati

The night after the Brewers bullpen lost their first lead of the season, the Brewers—specifically, former Phil Johnny Estrada—forced newly minted closer Brett Myers to blow his first save in eight tries (i.e., four saves and three holds previously). Luckily for the Phils, they were able to pull out a victory on a Carlos Ruiz walkoff home run. What a way for the rookie catcher to rebut the Phils not resigning veteran Estrada in the offseason.

The Brewers entered the series with a 21-0 record when leading after six innings and were making a run at the all-time "record" 55-0 by the '97 Reds. Consider that the Brew Crew was 27th last season by keeping 43 leads and losing just 12 (78.2%) when leading after six.

In 2006 the average lead retention rate over the last three innings was 85.2%. The Mets lead all teams retaining 94.4% of all leads (67 of 71). The Royals were the worst (surprise!) with just a 71.4% retention rate (40 of 56).

Here are all the lead retention rates for last season, from best to worst:

TeamLeads KeptLeads Lost%WLPCTPOS
New York Mets67494.4%9765.5991
Minnesota Twins64494.1%9666.5931
San Diego Padres55493.2%8874.5431
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim64592.8%8973.5492
Chicago White Sox65691.5%9072.5563
Seattle Mariners52591.2%7884.4814
Texas Rangers57789.1%8082.4943
New York Yankees68988.3%9765.5991
Toronto Blue Jays65987.8%8775.5372
Cincinnati Reds50787.7%8082.4943
Los Angeles Dodgers57887.7%8874.5432
Detroit Tigers711087.7%9567.5862
Oakland Athletics63987.5%9369.5741
Philadelphia Phillies56887.5%8577.5252
Atlanta Braves52985.2%7983.4883
Houston Astros571085.1%8280.5062
Baltimore Orioles49984.5%7092.4324
St. Louis Cardinals641284.2%8378.5161
Chicago Cubs48984.2%6696.4076
San Francisco Giants531084.1%7685.4723
Florida Marlins581184.1%7884.4814
Boston Red Sox591381.9%8676.5313
Arizona Diamondbacks531281.5%7686.4694
Colorado Rockies551479.7%7686.4694
Pittsburgh Pirates431179.6%6795.4145
Cleveland Indians581678.4%7884.4814
Milwaukee Brewers431278.2%7587.4634
Washington Nationals421672.4%7191.4385
Tampa Bay Devil Rays381571.7%61101.3775
Kansas City Royals401671.4%62100.3835

As for the best teams at retaining leads (since 1901):

YearTeamLeads KeptLeads Lost%WLPCTPOSWon Div?WC?Won Lg?Won WS?
1997Cincinnati Reds550100.0%7686.4693NNNN
1954Cleveland Indians76198.7%11143.7211 YN
1952Brooklyn Dodgers59198.3%9657.6271 YN
1940Brooklyn Dodgers55198.2%8865.5752 NN
1942Brooklyn Dodgers76297.4%10450.6752 NN
1942St. Louis Cardinals75297.4%10648.6881 YY
2001St. Louis Cardinals75297.4%9369.5742NYNN
1935New York Giants65297.0%9162.5953 NN
1946New York Yankees65297.0%8767.5653 NN
1901Cincinnati Reds32197.0%5287.3748 N
1969New York Mets63296.9%10062.6171Y YY
1973Detroit Tigers58296.7%8577.5253N NN
1980New York Yankees72396.0%10359.6361Y NN

The worst are lead, of course, by the abysmal '62 Mets whose best reliever was probably their alleged number-one starter, Roger Craig:

YearTeamLeads KeptLeads Lost%WLPCTPOSWon Div?WC?Won Lg?Won WS?
1962New York Mets201458.8%40120.25010 NN
1950Pittsburgh Pirates351964.8%5796.3738 NN
1928Philadelphia Phillies231265.7%43109.2838 NN
1949Washington Senators271465.9%50104.3258 NN
1938St. Louis Browns331766.0%5597.3627 NN
1985San Francisco Giants331667.3%62100.3836N NN
2004Arizona Diamondbacks331667.3%51111.3155NNNN
1948Chicago White Sox271367.5%51101.3368 NN
1994Los Angeles Dodgers341668.0%5856.5091
1931Cincinnati Reds321568.1%5896.3778 NN
1939Philadelphia Athletics281368.3%5597.3627 NN
1945Philadelphia Athletics261268.4%5298.3478 NN
1981Chicago Cubs261268.4%3865.3696N NN
1979San Diego Padres371768.5%6893.4225N NN
1922Philadelphia Phillies311468.9%5796.3737 NN
1993New York Mets401869.0%59103.3647N NN

Now for the most leads retained led by the Kerry Lightenberg-era Braves:

YearTeamLeads KeptLeads Lost%WLPCTPOSWon Div?WC?Won Lg?Won WS?
1998Atlanta Braves851287.6%10656.6541YNNN
2001Seattle Mariners84495.5%11646.7161YNNN
1998New York Yankees84792.3%11448.7041YNYY
1993San Francisco Giants80594.1%10359.6362N NN
1944St. Louis Cardinals79594.0%10549.6821 YY
1954New York Yankees79692.9%10351.6692 NN
1986New York Mets78495.1%10854.6671Y YY
1989Oakland Athletics78495.1%9963.6111Y YY
1984Detroit Tigers77593.9%10458.6421Y YY
1975Cincinnati Reds77692.8%10854.6671Y YY
1942New York Yankees77890.6%10351.6691 YN
1936New York Yankees77989.5%10251.6671 YY
1948Cleveland Indians771187.5%9758.6261 YY
2003New York Yankees771187.5%10161.6231YNYN

And the '62 Mets retain the lead in least leads kept after six but those awful Phils teams of the past pepper the list:

YearTeamLeads KeptLeads Lost%WLPCTPOSWon Div?WC?Won Lg?Won WS?
1962New York Mets201458.8%40120.25010 NN
1911Boston Rustlers22775.9%44107.2918 NN
1981New York Mets22581.5%4162.3985N NN
1928Philadelphia Phillies231265.7%43109.2838 NN
1952Pittsburgh Pirates241070.6%42112.2738 NN
1953Pittsburgh Pirates241070.6%50104.3258 NN
1904Washington Senators24777.4%38113.2528 N
1909Boston Doves25875.8%45108.2948 NN
1938Philadelphia Phillies25778.1%45105.3008 NN
1939Philadelphia Phillies25680.6%45106.2988 NN
1942Philadelphia Phillies25389.3%42109.2788 NN

As for the least leads lost, 14 lost tow or fewer. Remarkably, the 52-87 1901 Reds were able to retain all but one of their leads after six. I guess not leading that many games helps especially with a team with no saves:

YearTeamLeads KeptLeads Lost%WLPCTPOSWon Div?WC?Won Lg?Won WS?
1997Cincinnati Reds550100.0%7686.4693NNNN
1954Cleveland Indians76198.7%11143.7211 YN
1952Brooklyn Dodgers59198.3%9657.6271 YN
1940Brooklyn Dodgers55198.2%8865.5752 NN
1901Cincinnati Reds32197.0%5287.3748 N
1942Brooklyn Dodgers76297.4%10450.6752 NN
1942St. Louis Cardinals75297.4%10648.6881 YY
2001St. Louis Cardinals75297.4%9369.5742NYNN
1935New York Giants65297.0%9162.5953 NN
1946New York Yankees65297.0%8767.5653 NN
1969New York Mets63296.9%10062.6171Y YY
1973Detroit Tigers58296.7%8577.5253N NN
1981St. Louis Cardinals44295.7%5943.5781N NN
1981Toronto Blue Jays26292.9%3769.3497N NN

As for the most leads lost, there are some pretty good teams on the list (like the 2004 A's and '75 Dodgers). I guess lots of leads and some problems in the bullpen (like Octavio Dotel as your closer) will do that:

YearTeamLeads KeptLeads Lost%WLPCTPOSWon Div?WC?Won Lg?Won WS?
1950Pittsburgh Pirates351964.8%5796.3738 NN
1973Milwaukee Brewers471971.2%7488.4575N NN
1939Detroit Tigers561974.7%8173.5265 NN
1993New York Mets401869.0%59103.3647N NN
1954Cincinnati Redlegs521874.3%7480.4815 NN
1986Minnesota Twins531874.6%7191.4386N NN
2004Oakland Athletics561875.7%9171.5622NNNN
1975Los Angeles Dodgers611877.2%8874.5432N NN
1938St. Louis Browns331766.0%5597.3627 NN
1979San Diego Padres371768.5%6893.4225N NN
1999Chicago Cubs411770.7%6795.4146NNNN
2004Colorado Rockies461773.0%6894.4204NNNN
1940Boston Red Sox491774.2%8272.5325 NN

So what does a team's lead retention rate tell you about their overall success? Well, not all that much it turns out. There is a slight correlation between lead retention rate after six and its winning percentage (coefficient of 0.600). Actually, winning percentage correlates a whole lot better to the number of leads retained after six (.867 coefficient), which makes sense—you have to have leads late in game, even if you blow some, to win ballgames. The number of leads lost have absolutely no correlation (-0.192) to overall winning percentage.

And finally, to totally beat this dead horse, winning percentage does correlate slightly better to leads retained after six (.867) than to total leads held, whether they were lost or retained (0.813). So it may be better to have lead and lost than to have never lead, but lead's labour's lost can bite you in A's.

Come Back at the Fenway Park, Julio Lugo, Julio Lugo
2007-05-14 09:12
by Mike Carminati

The Red Sox came back from an 0-5 deficit in the bottom of the ninth to win, 6-5, yesterday at Fenway for a Mother's Day special. The rally started with one out and then O's catcher Ramon Hernandez dropped a Coco Crisp popup for an error. Six runs, three hits (including two doubles), three walks (one intentional), one out, two pitchers, and one additional error later, Boston won.

It was just the ninth time in baseball history that a team trailing in the ninth by at least five runs came back to win the game. The last time it happened was April 29, 1979, when the visiting Cubs scored six runs in the top of the ninth to defeat the Braves, 6-5. The Cubs got their first two men on (Dave Kingman singled and Steve Ontiveros walked) but were then on the ropes after two straight fly balls to second baseman Glenn Hubbard by Jerry Martin and Gene Klines. A walk to Ted Sizemore to load the bases brought the hook for Braves starter Larry McWilliams. Gene Garber, the man the greatest delivery in baseball history, gave up to straight singles (to Tim Blackwell and Larry Biitner) to run the score to 5-3 and then served up a homer to Bobby Murcer to put the Cubs ahead to stay, 6-5.

The last time a home team overcame a five-run deficit in the ninth was July 24, 1978 when the Astros beat the Expos, 6-5 with all their runs coming in the ninth. The Expos were leading 4-0 at the start of the ninth when Ken Forsch replaced Mark Lemongello to mop up the last inning. Forsch, the eventual winning pitcher, allowed a Tony Perez single, hit Larry Parrish with a pitch, walked Gary Carter intentional after a groundout to load the bases, and finally a Chris Speier single to plate the fifth Montreal run. The 'Stros led off the bottom of the ninth with a Rafael Landestoy walk—take that Speier!—, a Terry Puhl single, and an Enos Cabell double to score their first run. Darold Knowles replaced Mike Garman and allowed a run on a sac fly by pinch-hitter Jesus Alou. After Bob Watson walked and Art Howe struck out, the Astros came within one run of Montreal after two straight singles. Knowles was lifted for Gerry Pirtle (who?) after the Expos failed to get an out on a Bruce Bochy fielder's choice, the bases were loaded. Landestoy then singled home the tying and winning runs—Die Speier!—for a 6-5 two-out victory.

The only time a larger deficit was overcome in the ninth (with no runs for the home team) was August 22, 1947 when the Tigers beat the Senators 7-6 on seven ninth-inning runs.

Here are the greatest ninth-inning comebacks from a previously scoreless home team. The Red Sox's was just the sixth comeback of five or more :

DateVisiting teamHome teamVT runsHT runsLead Overcome
19470822Washington SenatorsDetroit Tigers676
20070513Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox565
19780724Montreal ExposHouston Astros565
19600417Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates565
19310530Philadelphia AthleticsBoston Red Sox565
19110601Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals565
20050819San Francisco GiantsSt. Louis Cardinals454
20040928Colorado RockiesLos Angeles Dodgers454
19990523Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets454
19990417Chicago CubsMilwaukee Brewers454
19930611Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres454
19900424Chicago White SoxTexas Rangers454
19790829Seattle MarinersCleveland Indians454
19790506Kansas City RoyalsCleveland Indians454
19740428Philadelphia PhilliesSan Diego Padres454
19580919New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles454
19570704Chicago White SoxKansas City Athletics454
19550911Philadelphia PhilliesMilwaukee Braves454
19550422Pittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia Phillies454
19410822Washington SenatorsDetroit Tigers454
19410722Brooklyn DodgersCincinnati Reds454
19100609St. Louis CardinalsNew York Giants454

There were two other ninth-inning deficits of six runs overcome by a team with no runs, but the other two were visiting clubs. Here are the previous comebacks of five or more runs:

DateVisiting teamHome teamPrev LeadVT runsHT runs
19180508CINSLN696
19210908PHIBSN686
19470822WS1DET667
19600417CINPIT556
19780724MONHOU556
19790429CHNATL565
19110601CINSLN556
19310530PHABOS556

Now, before anyone points out that the Dodgers beat the Padres 6-5 April 30 of last year after trailing 5-0 in the ninth, but the Dodgers took two innings to do it. They tied the game in the ninth and won it in the tenth. The Reds had a five-run comeback in the ninth last year as well (July 6) but ended up losing to the Braves in the tenth. The Twins also had an eighth-inning comeback of five runs to tie the M's last June 7 but lost in eleven.

Finally, the greatest ninth-inning comeback by a home team was on April 25, 1901 (opening day) when the Tigers beat the old Milwaukee Brewers (now the Orioles) 14-13 after entering the bottom of the ninth trailing 13-4. The Tigers ended up sweeping four games from the Brewers by a combined score of 45 to 38. The Brewers ended up 48-89 and moved to St. Louis the next year. Here are the comebacks by a home team of at least five runs:

DateVisiting teamHome teamVT runsHT runsVT Mid 9thHT Mid 9thLead Mid 9thLead End 9th9th Inning R
19010425MLADET1314134-9110
19860829DETCAL1213125-718
19370908BOSNYA6961-538
20010728HOUPIT8982-617
19980616PITPHI7871-617
19730501PITSFN7871-617
19470822WS1DET6760-617
19400520PITPHI7871-617
20030801COLPIT1112116-516
20030427KCATOR91094-516
20020728CHNSLN91094-516
19970902LANTEX1213127-516
19970527SEAMIN1011105-516
19880621NYADET6761-516
19850426CINSFN6761-516
19840831MILTEX6761-516
19790907TORCLE8983-516
19780928LANCIN7872-516
19780724MONHOU5650-516
19600417CINPIT5650-516
19540715BROMLN8983-516
19520715SLAPHA6761-516
19400703PHABOS1112116-516
19400425PHAWS16761-516
19310530PHABOS5650-516
19310518BOSCHA8983-516
19290712SLNBRO7872-516
19290604SLAWS17872-516
19110601CINSLN5650-516
One-Run Wonders
2007-05-09 09:18
by Mike Carminati

The Phils lost again yesterday by one run, 3-2 to the D-Backs on a Tony Clark—yes, he's still playing—pinch-hit home run. It was the second straight one-run loss for the team and their record in one-run games is 1-6 for the year, just ahead of the Cubs' major-league worst 1-7.

They not only wasted their monthly decent Adam Eaton start, the Phils again allowed the winning run late in the game after tying the game. On the bright side, at least it wasn't the bullpen's fault this time. The Phils do seem to be catching teams late just to give up the go-ahead/winning run the next half inning. I hate to quote Joe Morgan, but it seems like they are playing by his proverbial "Playing good enough to lose" paradigm.

The Phils are now on a pace to win just 69 against 93 losses and 5-29 in one-run games. It's still early and this is a team that perennially starts slowly, but their usual surge to resuscitate their fortunes has come and gone—a five-game win streak April 20-25 to get them within two games of .500 (9-11). Since then they have alternated a win with a loss or two. A malaise has again settled on the team aided by the injury/ineffectiveness of Ryan Howard and the execrable and now injured bullpen.

For a team that started the season with such high expectations, they seem certain to be the worst Phillie club since the Terry Francona days. A loss today would close out a 3-7 road trip.

Fortunately, perhaps, for the Phils, they will face a flagging Randy Johnson (0-2, 6.50 ERA). With 44-year-old Jamie Moyer facing Johnson (43), the game will feature the two oldest left-handed starters in (recorded) major-league history, barely topping the much ballyhooed Johnson-David Wells (43) pairing earlier this season. It will feature the oldest pairing of any pitchers since Charlie Hough (39) faced Phil Niekro (48) on July 25, 1987.

Here are the oldest pairings of all-time.

DateVisiting teamVT SPAgeVT runsHome teamHT SPAgeHT runsTot Age
19870608CLEPhil Niekro482CALDon Sutton42090
19860628CLEPhil Niekro473CALDon Sutton41988
20070509PHIJamie Moyer44 ARIRandy Johnson43 87
19870725TEXCharlie Hough397CLEPhil Niekro48387
19870506CLEPhil Niekro482TEXCharlie Hough39787
20070424SDNDavid Wells 4310ARIRandy Johnson43586
19870824NYATommy John443CALDon Sutton42286
19870821TORPhil Niekro481CALJerry Reuss38386
19870707MINJoe Niekro427NYATommy John441286
19650925BOSBill Monbouquette285KC1Satchel Paige58286
19290709PHAJack Quinn454CHARed Faber40685
19290617CHARed Faber406PHAJack Quinn45485
19290508PHAJack Quinn455CHARed Faber40485

And as for lefties starters:

DateVisiting teamVT SPAgeVT runsHome teamHT SPAgeHT runsTot Age
20070509PHIJamie Moyer44 ARIRandy Johnson43 87
20070424SDNDavid Wells 4310ARIRandy Johnson43586
19880502NYATommy John456CHAJerry Reuss39484
20050403BOSDavid Wells422NYARandy Johnson41983
20050703TEXKenny Rogers401SEAJamie Moyer42282
20040623ARIRandy Johnson403SDNDavid Wells41481
20041002TEXKenny Rogers3910SEAJamie Moyer41480
19870701CALJerry Reuss3810CLESteve Carlton42580
19650808SFNWarren Spahn446SLNCurt Simmons36480
20050611TEXKenny Rogers405FLOAl Leiter39679
20040819NYNAl Leiter384COLJeff Fassero41279
19870911NYATommy John445TORMike Flanagan35679

You can chalk the Phils' poor one-run record to small sample size, but if they do keep up their current pace, their 5-29 (.143) record would be the worst since the 1800s:

YrTm1-R W1-R L1-R PCTWLPCT
1871Rockford Forest Citys05.000421.160
1872Cleveland Forest Citys02.000616.273
1872Troy Haymakers01.0001510.600
1875Keokuk Westerns03.000112.077
1875Philadelphia Centennials01.000212.143
1875St. Louis Red Stockings02.000415.211
1884Milwaukee Brewers01.00084.667
1875New Haven Elm Citys18.111740.149
1874Hartford Dark Blues17.1251637.302
1878Milwaukee Grays315.1671545.250
1886Washington Nationals525.1672892.233
1935Boston Braves731.18438115.248

Here are the worst since 1900. The Phils and Cubs blow them away:

YrTm1-R W1-R L1-R PCTWLPCT
1935Boston Braves731.18438115.248
1937St. Louis Browns1031.24446108.299
1999Kansas City Royals1132.2566497.398
1916Philadelphia Athletics1132.25636117.235
1936Philadelphia Phillies1234.26154100.351
1952Pittsburgh Pirates1335.27142112.273
1953New York Giants924.2737084.455
1937Cincinnati Reds1436.2805698.364
1919Washington Senators1436.2805684.400
1913Brooklyn Superbas1436.2806584.436
1975Houston Astros1641.2816497.398
1966New York Yankees1538.2837089.440

At the other end of the spectrum, the Tigers (9-5 in 1-run games, projected 47-26), Arizona (10-6, 46-28), and Cleveland (8-3, 43-16) are all on a pace to break the all-time one-run win record:

YrTm1-R W1-R L1-R PCTWLPCT
1978San Francisco Giants4226.6188973.549
1969New York Mets4123.64110062.617
1940Cincinnati Reds4117.70710053.654
1974Baltimore Orioles4021.6569171.562
1970Baltimore Orioles4015.72710854.667
1979Houston Astros3927.5918973.549
1985Cincinnati Reds3918.6848972.553
1993Kansas City Royals3832.5438478.519
1982San Francisco Giants3828.5768775.537
1967Chicago White Sox3826.5948973.549
1943New York Yankees3823.6239856.636
1972Chicago White Sox3820.6558767.565

By the way, the Phils and D-Backs are neck and neck in the all-time one-run standings. Here are the up-to-date records for all active franchises. Another one-run loss and the D-Backs pass them. I'm sure that is their incentive going into tonight's game:

Franchise1-R W1-R L1-R PCTWLPCT
Milwaukee Brewers841927.4762,8593,197.472
Texas Rangers10461150.4763,4293,908.467
New York Mets11231225.4783,4283,754.477
Seattle Mariners641691.4812,2412,522.471
Tampa Bay Devil Rays194209.481593894.399
Kansas City Royals855909.4852,9443,106.487
Arizona Diamondbacks213225.486747746.500
Philadelphia Phillies27242872.4878,7789,974.468
Minnesota Twins24402532.4917,9018,529.481
Baltimore Orioles24042484.4927,8278,597.477
San Diego Padres955985.4922,7993,263.462
Houston Astros11331162.4943,5943,600.500
Colorado Rockies293300.4941,0391,199.464
Atlanta Braves28512897.4969,6329,651.500
Oakland Athletics23952412.4987,9798,427.486
Toronto Blue Jays676676.5002,3582,409.495
Washington Nationals968966.5012,9163,139.482
Chicago White Sox25832559.5028,3148,107.506
Cleveland Indians24522426.5038,4008,040.511
Chicago Cubs28862850.5039,9159,397.513
Detroit Tigers24462402.5058,3368,128.506
Pittsburgh Pirates28902828.5059,5709,308.507
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim11501123.5063,6133,742.491
Florida Marlins343330.5101,0561,177.473
Los Angeles Dodgers29042793.5109,8138,906.524
Boston Red Sox24882384.5118,4657,970.515
Cincinnati Reds29472815.5119,6149,305.508
St. Louis Cardinals29072775.5129,7789,129.517
San Francisco Giants29122705.51810,1308,648.539
New York Yankees24942256.5259,3047,110.567

Roger and Repeat Were in a Boat…
2007-05-07 21:38
by Mike Carminati

You have to hand it to the Yankees—they sure know how to promote and they're not shy about it.  During the seventh stretch of yesterday's ballgame, the greatest living pitcher and professional snowbird (Roger Clemens) announced from the owner's box that he was coming out of semiretirement to again pitch for New York. 

 

Come on, given that his bosom buddy Andy Pettitte went back to the Yankees this season and the Astros all but said they weren't interested in paying $20+ M for a part-time pitcher at the end of last season, it seemed a fait accompli that he would end up in New York.  (And he would never go back to the Red Sox after the way then-GM Dan Duquette and the old ownership drove him out of town in 1996.)

 

The Yankees thereby fill its greatest need with the best possible option.  That's why they are the Yankees.

 

Clemens becomes the eleventh ex-Yankee pitcher from their current golden era (1995 to present) to return  to the club after playing elsewhere (twelfth if you count El Duque Hernandez's 2003 foray in the Florida State League with the Expos). When you consider just 30 pitchers in Yankee history have had two separate stints with the club, it seems that they are going back to the well a little too often lately:

 

 

First Tour

2nd Tour

Player

Begin

End

Begin

End

Roger Clemens

1999

2003

2007

2007

Andy Pettitte

1995

2003

2007

2007

Mike Stanton

1997

2002

2005

2005

Jason Anderson

2003

2003

2005

2005

Al Leiter

1987

1989

2005

2005

Ramiro Mendoza

1996

2002

2005

2005

Jeff Nelson

1996

2000

2003

2003

David Wells

1997

1998

2002

2003

Sterling Hitchcock

1992

1995

2001

2003

Brian Boehringer

1995

1997

2001

2001

Dwight Gooden

1996

1997

2000

2000

Dave Eiland

1988

1991

1995

1995

Rich Gossage

1978

1983

1989

1989

Scott Nielsen

1986

1986

1988

1989

Rich Bordi

1985

1985

1987

1987

Neil Allen

1985

1985

1987

1988

Tommy John

1979

1982

1986

1989

Doyle Alexander

1976

1976

1982

1983

Rudy May

1974

1976

1980

1983

Ron Klimkowski

1969

1970

1972

1972

Rob Gardner

1970

1970

1972

1972

Ralph Terry

1956

1957

1959

1964

Tommy Byrne

1943

1951

1954

1957

Ivy Andrews

1931

1932

1937

1938

Wilcy Moore

1927

1929

1932

1933

Alex Ferguson

1918

1921

1925

1925

Urban Shocker

1916

1917

1925

1928

Cliff Markle

1915

1916

1924

1924

Bob McGraw

1917

1918

1920

1920

Jack Quinn

1909

1912

1919

1921

 

Anyway, what can be expected from Clemens this year?  I saw an ESPN debate—between John Kruk and a brownish stain—as to how many games Clemens will win in 2007.  I know that the Football & Sports Programming Network loves to pander to their fantasy and gambling base, but c'mon, we deserve better than this.

 

I took a look at all players who pitched both when they 43 and 44 years old.  There were 23 in total.  Then I took a look at how they aged between the two years. Here they are:

 

 

Age 43

Age 44

Player

Yr

W

L

PCT

ERA

WHIP

K-BB

K-9IP

Yr

W

L

PCT

ERA

WHIP

K-BB

K-9IP

Babe Adams

1925

6

5

.545

5.42

1.44

1.06

1.60

1926

2

3

.400

6.14

1.61

0.88

1.72

Charlie Hough

1991

9

10

.474

4.02

1.31

1.14

4.83

1992

7

12

.368

3.93

1.28

1.15

3.88

Clark Griffith

1913

0

0

.000

0.00

1.00

INF

0.00

1914

0

0

.000

0.00

1.00

INF

9.00

Cy Young

1910

7

10

.412

2.53

1.08

2.15

3.20

1911

7

9

.438

3.78

1.31

1.96

3.92

David Wells

2006

3

5

.375

4.42

1.45

3.17

4.54

2007

1

1

.500

6.03

1.56

2.29

4.60

Dazzy Vance

1934

1

3

.250

4.56

1.49

1.68

4.91

1935

3

2

.600

4.41

1.39

1.75

4.94

Diomedes Olivo

1962

5

1

.833

2.77

1.34

2.64

7.04

1963

0

5

.000

5.40

1.88

1.00

6.08

Dolf Luque

1934

4

3

.571

3.83

1.68

0.71

2.55

1935

1

0

1.000

0.00

0.55

2.00

4.91

Don McMahon

1973

4

0

1.000

1.48

0.92

2.86

5.93

1974

0

0

.000

3.09

1.29

2.50

3.86

Dutch Leonard

1952

2

2

.500

2.16

1.20

1.54

5.00

1953

2

3

.400

4.60

1.53

1.13

3.88

Gaylord Perry

1982

10

12

.455

4.40

1.38

2.15

4.82

1983

7

14

.333

4.64

1.41

1.67

3.96

Hoyt Wilhelm

1966

5

2

.714

1.66

0.82

3.59

6.75

1967

8

3

.727

1.31

1.03

2.24

7.69

Jack Quinn

1927

15

10

.600

3.26

1.23

1.16

1.92

1928

18

7

.720

2.90

1.29

1.26

1.83

Jamie Moyer

2006

11

14

.440

4.30

1.32

2.12

4.60

2007

3

2

.600

2.85

 1.10

1.93

5.93

Jesse Orosco

2000

0

0

.000

3.86

2.57

1.33

15.43

2001

0

1

.000

3.94

1.50

3.00

11.81

Jim Kaat

1982

5

3

.625

4.08

1.36

1.52

4.20

1983

0

0

.000

3.89

1.67

1.90

4.93

Joe Heving

1944

8

3

.727

1.96

1.23

1.12

3.46

1945

1

0

1.000

3.38

1.50

0.33

1.69

John Franco

2004

2

7

.222

5.28

1.52

1.50

7.04

2005

0

1

.000

7.20

2.13

1.78

9.60

Nolan Ryan

1990

13

9

.591

3.44

1.03

3.14

10.24

1991

12

6

.667

2.91

1.01

2.82

10.56

Phil Niekro

1982

17

4

.810

3.61

1.27

1.97

5.53

1983

11

10

.524

3.97

1.57

1.22

5.71

Red Faber

1932

2

11

.154

3.74

1.52

0.68

2.21

1933

3

4

.429

3.44

1.39

0.64

1.88

Tommy John

1986

5

3

.625

2.93

1.25

1.87

3.57

1987

13

6

.684

4.03

1.38

1.34

3.02

Warren Spahn

1964

6

13

.316

5.29

1.47

1.50

4.04

1965

7

16

.304

4.01

1.35

1.61

4.10

Avg

 

140

130

.519

 

 

 

 

 

106

105

.502

 

 

 

 

 

On average a 44-year-old's ERA went up 16%, his WHIP went up 6%, and his strikeout-to-walk and strike-per-nine-innings ratios remained largely unchanged.

 

Applying the average aging factors for his age, here is a comparison between Clemens 2006 and his projected 2007:

 

 

Age 43

Age 44

Player

Yr

W

L

PCT

ERA

WHIP

K-BB

K-9IP

Yr

W

L

PCT

ERA

WHIP

K-BB

K-9IP

Roger Clemens

2006

7

6

.538

2.30

1.04

3.52

8.10

2007

5.3

4.8

.522

2.67

1.11

3.51

8.14

 

Fewer wins and slightly higher ratios, that's not bad for a prorated $28M salary. When are these guys taking John Lieber, another ex-Yank, off the Phils' hands anyway?

Un-Man the Helms
2007-05-06 22:24
by Mike Carminati

The Phils won 8-5 today behind Cole Hamels, thereby splitting their series with the Giants, but the game would not have been nearly that close if it had nor been for the brick-mitted Wes Helms. Helms had two errors: The first gave the Giants their first run in the second and led to a three-run inning and 3-2 Giant lead. The second helped the Giants tie the score 5-5 in the fifth.

Helms now projects to 31.4, that though it is not nearly a record, is among the worst in the last fifty or so years and combined with Helms' sub-par offense has been a drag on this team all year.

The most errors all time for a third baseman were recorded error-laden 19th century:

PlayerYrE
Bill Joyce1890107
Bob Ferguson1873104
Jumbo Davis188891
Joe Werrick188789
Arlie Latham188688
Billy Shindle188988
John Irwin188487
Ned Williamson188387
Charlie Hickman190086
Harry Schafer187485
Jerry McCormick188384
Pete Gilbert189184

Now, here are the worst since 1950:

PlayerYrE
Butch Hobson197843
Dick Allen196441
Pete Ward196338
Darrell Evans197536
Joel Youngblood198436
Bobby Bonilla198935
Dick Allen196735
Larry Parrish197535
Tony Perez197035
Gary Sheffield199334
Ken Boyer196334
Ray Jablonski195434
Aramis Ramirez200333
Mike Lamb200033
Todd Zeile199333
Troy Glaus200033
Bob Bailey196332
Bobby Bonilla198832
Jim Ray Hart196532
Russ Davis199832
Tony Perez196932
Wes Helms2007 (proj) 31.4
Ron Santo196131

You'll note that a number of these players (Sheffield, Perez, Bonilla, Allen) were shifted to other positions, usually first base or the outfield, later in their careers. The Phils though in their infinite wisdom chose to shift the error-prone Helms to third.

Currently, Helms has no homers and just ten RBI and a .661 OPS to go with his empty .284 average. His .661 OPS ranks just 19th among starting third baseman (min 50 ABs). Thank goodness for Kevin Kouzmanoff!

To put his poor offense in context, here is Helms' 2007 projected offensive and defensive stats compared to the average third baseman's from last season:

PlayerAgeHRRBIBAOBPSLUGOPSEADP
Avg 3B man 28.4 20.0 80.5 .279.351.469.820 14.2 246.8 25.0
Helms (proj.)31060.284.318.343.661 31.4 224.7 10.5

The problem is that the alternative at third is Abraham Nunez, who is a no-hit wonder, not to mention the only viable backup at short and second. Given that his career OPS is just .771 compared to a .820 average for all starting third basemen.

He just is not a talented enough player to start at third at the major-league level. It was a mistake on Pat Gillick's part to believe he was. At some point unless Helms picks up his offense and matches his career 2006 season—I don't expect his defensive to improve much—the Phils will have to cut their losses and let Helms and his $2.3M contract go. I hope Chris Coste is working out at third in Triple-A.

Starting to Get Ri-God Damn-diculous Ridiculous
2007-05-03 21:32
by Mike Carminati

The Yankees reactivated Mike Mussina to pitch one end of a doubleheader today. They have used nine starters in their first 25 games. That translates to 58.32 by the end of the season. So not only will the Yankees completely deplete the starting rotations throughout their minor-league system, they will have to one pitcher in thirds.

I'm joking, of course, but they could continue to drive up the number of starters especially if they continue to look outside of the organization for help, which is their M.O. Roger Clemens anyone?

The single-season team record for starting pitchers used is 24 by the Connie Mack-depleted A's in 1915:
YrTeamLg# SPWLPCTPos
1915Philadelphia AthleticsAL2443109.2838
1890Pittsburg AlleghenysNL2023113.1698
1884Kansas City CowboysUA201663.20311
1967New York MetsNL2061101.37710
1946Philadelphia PhilliesNL196985.4485
1919Philadelphia AthleticsAL1936104.2578
1935Philadelphia AthleticsAL195891.3898
1944Brooklyn DodgersNL196391.4097
1915St. Louis BrownsAL196391.4096
1955Baltimore OriolesAL195797.3707
1952Boston Red SoxAL187678.4946
1936Philadelphia AthleticsAL1853100.3468
1993Cleveland IndiansAL187686.4696
1909Boston Red SoxAL188863.5833
1956Kansas City AthleticsAL1852102.3388
1996Pittsburgh PiratesNL187389.4515
1910St. Louis BrownsAL1847107.3058
1946New York YankeesAL188767.5653
1939St. Louis BrownsAL1843111.2798

I don't expect the Yankees to top the '15 A's, but cracking that list is definitely within their power.

Non-Continuous Non-Eloquence II—Was Gladstone Right?
2007-05-03 10:28
by Mike Carminati
Justice delayed is justice denied.
—British Prime Minister William E. "Don't Call Me Ricky" Gladstone

The estimable Bob DuPuy denied the Indians protest of their 7-4 loss on April 28 to the Orioles. In the game, a botched call on a run scoring before the completion of a non-continuous double play caused a game erroneously tied 2-2 to become a retroactive 3-2 O's lead three innings later.

DuPuy reached his decision "because the umpires' mistake did not involve a judgment call, and because there is nothing in the Official Baseball Rules to address when umpires can make a correction, the umps can act at their own discretion."

I also would have mentioned that the delay did not affect the outcome of the game. The Indians went on to grab a 4-3 lead on a "Why Can't Jhonny Spell" Peralta homer in the sixth just after the run was posthumously added to the score. The Indians lost 7-4. So what would have been the difference if the 2-2 tie had been a 2-3 deficit for three innings? Would the Indians have tried that much harder to score a run from the third to the fifth? I think not. Why not blame it on the decision to use Aaron Fultz with the game on the line in the eighth.

Baseball's official statement cited "'the first requisite is to get decisions correctly,' [therefore,] this umpire crew was within the authority that Rule 9.01 (c) gave them to correct the game score when they did." I guess they can't say in an official statement that the umps involved are complete doofises.

Baseball's statement is based on the General Instructions To Umpires at the end of the Umpire section of the rule book (section 9):

Each umpire team should work out a simple set of signals, so the proper umpire can always right a manifestly wrong decision when convinced he has made an error. If sure you got the play correctly, do not be stampeded by players' appeals to "ask the other man." If not sure, ask one of your associates. Do not carry this to extremes, be alert and get your own plays. But remember! The first requisite is to get decisions correctly. If in doubt don't hesitate to consult your associate. Umpire dignity is important but never as important as "being right."

"Umpire dignity"? No that's an oxymoron. Unfortunately (and amazingly) here none of the umps, some seasoned professions like Ed Montague, knew this very basic rule. They didn't know they got it wrong until they bothered to check the rulebook three innings later. If I were a manager, I would have one of my coaches carry the rulebook (instead of tobacky) in his back pocket for just these sorts of situations.

Rule 9.01(c) is a quick one: "Each umpire has authority to rule on any point not specifically covered in these rules.". I love that one. It's perfect for giving boneheaded umps a Mulligan whenever needed. It's great that the baseball gods in formulating the rules of the game acknowledged Gödel's Theorem , which tells us that any system is inherently incomplete.

I couldn't find an example in which a decision, especially one that affected the score, was delayed for anything like three innings, but Rich Marazzi's The Rules and Lore of Baseball had an interesting one, though it was a shorter delay (I'll mercifully skip Merkle's boner):

In a game against the St. Louis Browns in 1922, with two out in the top of the ninth inning and the Yankees ahead 2-1, the Browns' Johnny Tobin grounded to Yankee first baseman Wally Pipp, with Chick Shorten on second and Pat Collins on first. Pipp tossed to Yankee chucker Sam Jones, covering first base. Umpier Ollie Chill waved Tobin out, and the Yankee players along with the large crowd of 49,152 assumed the game was over.
However, Lee Fohl, coaching at first, had noticed that Jones did not have possession of the ball as he juggled it before holding it securely. Fohl took it up with plate umpire Brick Owens, who told Chill in his opinion Tobin was safe. In the meantime, the tying Brown run had scored from second. After a 20-minute delay, Chill reversed his original decision, the game was resumed, and the Browns won, 7-2. So here we have a game that was temporarily won but eventually was lost.
You're Blind Ump…But Then Again Isn't Justice?
2007-05-01 22:02
by Mike Carminati
The ultimate umpire of all things in life is—Fact.
—Agnes C. Laut

I'll set aside the tragedy of Phil Hughes going from a no-hitter in the seventh inning to a month (hopefully) on the DL and how I again mooshed a no-hitter bid. I have been building an umpire database based on a few sources including Retrosheets wealth of game log data.

I know, exciting topic. Anyway, I quickly ran the numbers for the most games umpired (through 2006) and came with the top-20 list below.

Five are still active. Given the number of teams and games played today, current umps get to call a lot more games. Also, I'm proud to say that Ed Montague, the guy who was unsure how to call a run scoring on a non-continuous double play over the weekend (he had someone look it ump in the rulebook even though it is explicitly stated there three times), he is number 7 after Hall-of-Famer Al Barlick. Mercy:

Ump NameNum GamesFirstLast
Bruce Froemming502919712006
Doug Harvey467019621992
Joe Brinkman450519722006
Harry Wendelstedt449719661998
Larry Barnett429219692000
Al Barlick422419401971
Ed Montague412019742006
Larry McCoy402319701999
Jerry Crawford399319762006
Mike Reilly396419772006
Dave Phillips393219712002
Jim Evans389619711999
Nestor Chylak385619541978
Lee Weyer382419611988
Don Denkinger382319691998
Jim Honochick381419491973
Tom Gorman379919511977
Frank Pulli377319721999
Augie Donatelli377119501973
Tommy Connolly375318981930
This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Mike's Baseball Rants
Archives

2009
01 

2008
10  09  07 
06  05  04  03 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2004
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2002
12  11  10  09  08  07 
Links to MBBR