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Roger and Repeat Were in a Boat…
2007-05-07 21:38
by Mike Carminati

You have to hand it to the Yankees—they sure know how to promote and they're not shy about it.  During the seventh stretch of yesterday's ballgame, the greatest living pitcher and professional snowbird (Roger Clemens) announced from the owner's box that he was coming out of semiretirement to again pitch for New York. 

 

Come on, given that his bosom buddy Andy Pettitte went back to the Yankees this season and the Astros all but said they weren't interested in paying $20+ M for a part-time pitcher at the end of last season, it seemed a fait accompli that he would end up in New York.  (And he would never go back to the Red Sox after the way then-GM Dan Duquette and the old ownership drove him out of town in 1996.)

 

The Yankees thereby fill its greatest need with the best possible option.  That's why they are the Yankees.

 

Clemens becomes the eleventh ex-Yankee pitcher from their current golden era (1995 to present) to return  to the club after playing elsewhere (twelfth if you count El Duque Hernandez's 2003 foray in the Florida State League with the Expos). When you consider just 30 pitchers in Yankee history have had two separate stints with the club, it seems that they are going back to the well a little too often lately:

 

 

First Tour

2nd Tour

Player

Begin

End

Begin

End

Roger Clemens

1999

2003

2007

2007

Andy Pettitte

1995

2003

2007

2007

Mike Stanton

1997

2002

2005

2005

Jason Anderson

2003

2003

2005

2005

Al Leiter

1987

1989

2005

2005

Ramiro Mendoza

1996

2002

2005

2005

Jeff Nelson

1996

2000

2003

2003

David Wells

1997

1998

2002

2003

Sterling Hitchcock

1992

1995

2001

2003

Brian Boehringer

1995

1997

2001

2001

Dwight Gooden

1996

1997

2000

2000

Dave Eiland

1988

1991

1995

1995

Rich Gossage

1978

1983

1989

1989

Scott Nielsen

1986

1986

1988

1989

Rich Bordi

1985

1985

1987

1987

Neil Allen

1985

1985

1987

1988

Tommy John

1979

1982

1986

1989

Doyle Alexander

1976

1976

1982

1983

Rudy May

1974

1976

1980

1983

Ron Klimkowski

1969

1970

1972

1972

Rob Gardner

1970

1970

1972

1972

Ralph Terry

1956

1957

1959

1964

Tommy Byrne

1943

1951

1954

1957

Ivy Andrews

1931

1932

1937

1938

Wilcy Moore

1927

1929

1932

1933

Alex Ferguson

1918

1921

1925

1925

Urban Shocker

1916

1917

1925

1928

Cliff Markle

1915

1916

1924

1924

Bob McGraw

1917

1918

1920

1920

Jack Quinn

1909

1912

1919

1921

 

Anyway, what can be expected from Clemens this year?  I saw an ESPN debate—between John Kruk and a brownish stain—as to how many games Clemens will win in 2007.  I know that the Football & Sports Programming Network loves to pander to their fantasy and gambling base, but c'mon, we deserve better than this.

 

I took a look at all players who pitched both when they 43 and 44 years old.  There were 23 in total.  Then I took a look at how they aged between the two years. Here they are:

 

 

Age 43

Age 44

Player

Yr

W

L

PCT

ERA

WHIP

K-BB

K-9IP

Yr

W

L

PCT

ERA

WHIP

K-BB

K-9IP

Babe Adams

1925

6

5

.545

5.42

1.44

1.06

1.60

1926

2

3

.400

6.14

1.61

0.88

1.72

Charlie Hough

1991

9

10

.474

4.02

1.31

1.14

4.83

1992

7

12

.368

3.93

1.28

1.15

3.88

Clark Griffith

1913

0

0

.000

0.00

1.00

INF

0.00

1914

0

0

.000

0.00

1.00

INF

9.00

Cy Young

1910

7

10

.412

2.53

1.08

2.15

3.20

1911

7

9

.438

3.78

1.31

1.96

3.92

David Wells

2006

3

5

.375

4.42

1.45

3.17

4.54

2007

1

1

.500

6.03

1.56

2.29

4.60

Dazzy Vance

1934

1

3

.250

4.56

1.49

1.68

4.91

1935

3

2

.600

4.41

1.39

1.75

4.94

Diomedes Olivo

1962

5

1

.833

2.77

1.34

2.64

7.04

1963

0

5

.000

5.40

1.88

1.00

6.08

Dolf Luque

1934

4

3

.571

3.83

1.68

0.71

2.55

1935

1

0

1.000

0.00

0.55

2.00

4.91

Don McMahon

1973

4

0

1.000

1.48

0.92

2.86

5.93

1974

0

0

.000

3.09

1.29

2.50

3.86

Dutch Leonard

1952

2

2

.500

2.16

1.20

1.54

5.00

1953

2

3

.400

4.60

1.53

1.13

3.88

Gaylord Perry

1982

10

12

.455

4.40

1.38

2.15

4.82

1983

7

14

.333

4.64

1.41

1.67

3.96

Hoyt Wilhelm

1966

5

2

.714

1.66

0.82

3.59

6.75

1967

8

3

.727

1.31

1.03

2.24

7.69

Jack Quinn

1927

15

10

.600

3.26

1.23

1.16

1.92

1928

18

7

.720

2.90

1.29

1.26

1.83

Jamie Moyer

2006

11

14

.440

4.30

1.32

2.12

4.60

2007

3

2

.600

2.85

 1.10

1.93

5.93

Jesse Orosco

2000

0

0

.000

3.86

2.57

1.33

15.43

2001

0

1

.000

3.94

1.50

3.00

11.81

Jim Kaat

1982

5

3

.625

4.08

1.36

1.52

4.20

1983

0

0

.000

3.89

1.67

1.90

4.93

Joe Heving

1944

8

3

.727

1.96

1.23

1.12

3.46

1945

1

0

1.000

3.38

1.50

0.33

1.69

John Franco

2004

2

7

.222

5.28

1.52

1.50

7.04

2005

0

1

.000

7.20

2.13

1.78

9.60

Nolan Ryan

1990

13

9

.591

3.44

1.03

3.14

10.24

1991

12

6

.667

2.91

1.01

2.82

10.56

Phil Niekro

1982

17

4

.810

3.61

1.27

1.97

5.53

1983

11

10

.524

3.97

1.57

1.22

5.71

Red Faber

1932

2

11

.154

3.74

1.52

0.68

2.21

1933

3

4

.429

3.44

1.39

0.64

1.88

Tommy John

1986

5

3

.625

2.93

1.25

1.87

3.57

1987

13

6

.684

4.03

1.38

1.34

3.02

Warren Spahn

1964

6

13

.316

5.29

1.47

1.50

4.04

1965

7

16

.304

4.01

1.35

1.61

4.10

Avg

 

140

130

.519

 

 

 

 

 

106

105

.502

 

 

 

 

 

On average a 44-year-old's ERA went up 16%, his WHIP went up 6%, and his strikeout-to-walk and strike-per-nine-innings ratios remained largely unchanged.

 

Applying the average aging factors for his age, here is a comparison between Clemens 2006 and his projected 2007:

 

 

Age 43

Age 44

Player

Yr

W

L

PCT

ERA

WHIP

K-BB

K-9IP

Yr

W

L

PCT

ERA

WHIP

K-BB

K-9IP

Roger Clemens

2006

7

6

.538

2.30

1.04

3.52

8.10

2007

5.3

4.8

.522

2.67

1.11

3.51

8.14

 

Fewer wins and slightly higher ratios, that's not bad for a prorated $28M salary. When are these guys taking John Lieber, another ex-Yank, off the Phils' hands anyway?

Comments
2007-05-08 03:18:49
1.   Yu-Hsing Chen
The next time a Yankee starter blows a hamstring I'm sure, which is in all likelyhood the next week or two if not sooner :P
2007-05-08 16:56:31
2.   ziggy29
Projecting Clemens' '07 win total by using his '06 totals is probably not too accurate. Recall that Clemens routinely received pitiful support from Astro bats and should have had a much better record than he did; it's a pretty safe bet that the gazillion-dollar Yankees lineup will score him quite a few more runs than Houston did.

As some folks said about Clemens in his last two years in Houston, he's so dominant that he can singlehandedly shut down both offenses in the game.

2007-05-09 09:39:21
3.   rbj
If Roger can post a sub 3.00 ERA in the AL East, he'll easily win 15 games -- that is, unless the bullpen is so fried they cough up those games.

I'll be happy with a sub 4.00 ERA probably good for 10-12 wins.

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