When we last left off, we established that teams today retain leads better than any decade since the deadball era. However, the reason for this, apparently, is that teams establish bigger leads today since their success in holding smaller leads (one-, two-, or three-run leads) has changed very little over the last fifty years or so.

However, I didn't offer any direct proof of this assumption. But the table below bears it out. It breaks down the game situations at the end of the sixth inning for all games:

Note that tie ballgames one-run leads are now at an all-time, and two- and three-run leads aren't that far behind. At the same time, leads of more than three runs are at an all-time high.

Therefore, teams have more leads than ever to hold, but they are bigger leads, and hence are easier to keep.

However, one has to keep in mind that teams are using more pitchers per game than ever. And as the table below demonstrates, innings pitched per start have been dropping steadily, with fits and starts, since the dawn of recorded baseball time (note, based on pure starter stats):

So maybe I am a bit hard on modern bullpens. Yes, they haven't helped teams today retain close leads any better than their counterparts did in the past. But more and more the leads are being held by members of the bullpen rather than starters. Being on a par with starters is actually quite an accomplishment especially when the guys holding the lead in, say, the sixth and seventh might be the fourth or fifth guy in the bullpen.

What happens as the game gets later and, one would assume, the team with the lead is more likely to use its closer? Let's look at the results for leads after seven and eight innings to see whether teams are improving on retaining leads as the game progresses.

Again, teams today retain leads after seven better than they have in a hundred years, and again their ability to hold one-run leads hasn't improved in the 2000s. It's actually very slightly below average even though it hasn't changed much in the last two and one half decades. Also, leads over three runs have been retained at the same rate since the Forties.

However, retaining two-run leads after seven is at an all-time high, and retaining three-run leads, though a much tighter group, has improved a full percentage point over the Nineties and is the highest it's been since the Fifties and Sixties. So there is some actual improvement in holding leads that starts to become clear after seven innings.

Let's see what happens after eight innings:

Well, there's definite improvement across the boards here, and that's thanks to the closer.

Now, which teams have been the best at retaining leads? Let's look at leads after six first:

And here are the worst:

Now, here are the best on the ninth:

And now the worst:

Next are the best at retaining a closer lead (three runs or less) in the ninth:

The worst:

Finally, here are the best at holding a one-run lead in the ninth. There were too many teams at one hundred percent, so I listed the perfect teams with the most opportunities:

And the worst: