Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
We've already seen who the best free agents were based on player performance after signing with a new club. However, I don't think that tells us the full story. When a team signs a free agent, the assumption is that he will perform based on his past performance and the compensation he derives is based on that assumption.
Sure, Barry Bonds has been ungodly since signing with the Giants but he's made between $4.5 and $18 M since signing. Are the some more moderately priced free agents whose performance, though not as high as Bonds, turns out to be a better bargain?
I took the data from the last entry and added the salary data from Doug Pappas' research. His data are only from 1985 on so the turn-of-the-century "jumpers" from the last study and early free agents get short shrift. However, it does allow us to measure every free agent contract over the last 20 years.
I prorated the total salary that each free agent received from his new team and prorated it per the average salary for the given year. Actually, I prorated it based on 25-man rosters given that the salary data contains many partial season players, usually far more than 25 per team. A free agent, at least an effective one, is assumed to perform at least as well as anyone commanding a major-league spot. So I upped the ante by basing the salary on average roster spot salary.
OK, just a little bit more Basil Exposition: After prorating the salary on average salary, I prorated the Win Shares and Win Shares Above Baseline by the prorated salary.
Anyway, here were the results. Here are the 50 best free agent signings based on WSAB per salary above average:
| Name | Yr | Team | WS | WSAB | Tot Salary | # Seasons | WS Pro | WSAB Pro |
| Rodrigo Lopez | 2002 | BAL | 32 | 18 | $ 890,000 | 3 | 298.33 | 167.81 |
| Jeff Zimmerman | 1998 | TEX | 31 | 17 | $ 757,500 | 3 | 279.43 | 153.24 |
| Al Bumbry | 1979 | BAL | 94 | 37 | $ 160,000 | 1 | 279.73 | 110.11 |
| Matt Herges | 1999 | LAN | 20 | 9 | $ 1,025,000 | 4 | 185.89 | 83.65 |
| Greg McMichael | 1991 | ATL | 45 | 25 | $ 2,219,000 | 5 | 140.98 | 78.32 |
| Jeff Shaw | 1996 | CIN | 41 | 29 | $ 1,750,000 | 3 | 109.72 | 76.27 |
| Bobby Grich | 1977 | CAL | 171 | 84 | $ 1,200,000 | 2 | 135.35 | 66.49 |
| Barry Bonds | 1993 | SFN | 463 | 343 | $ 122,689,882 | 12 | 89.75 | 66.49 |
| Brendan Donnelly | 2001 | ANA | 23 | 8 | $ 700,000 | 2 | 183.95 | 63.98 |
| Stew Cliburn | 1982 | CAL | 13 | 8 | $ 60,000 | 1 | 103.16 | 63.49 |
| Lance Carter | 2002 | TBA | 21 | 7 | $ 620,000 | 2 | 189.63 | 63.21 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 1998 | NYA | 73 | 43 | $ 7,460,000 | 4 | 106.78 | 62.90 |
| Scott Stewart | 2001 | MON | 22 | 8 | $ 1,612,000 | 4 | 148.92 | 54.15 |
| Giovanni Carrara | 2001 | LAN | 22 | 7 | $ 760,000 | 2 | 160.27 | 50.99 |
| Dale Mohorcic | 1986 | TEX | 23 | 11 | $ 217,500 | 2 | 100.26 | 47.33 |
| Craig Biggio | 1996 | HOU | 225 | 135 | $ 56,560,000 | 9 | 78.80 | 47.28 |
| Dave Veres | 1992 | HOU | 14 | 5 | $ 434,000 | 3 | 130.76 | 46.70 |
| Jeff Tam | 2000 | OAK | 19 | 8 | $ 1,890,000 | 4 | 104.27 | 43.90 |
| Brian Daubach | 1999 | BOS | 53 | 11 | $ 4,185,000 | 6 | 191.55 | 39.76 |
| Greg Maddux | 1993 | ATL | 246 | 180 | $ 108,450,000 | 12 | 53.94 | 39.47 |
| Todd Frohwirth | 1991 | BAL | 30 | 15 | $ 1,370,000 | 3 | 75.90 | 37.95 |
| Joe Borowski | 2002 | CHN | 21 | 12 | $ 2,645,000 | 3 | 65.88 | 37.64 |
| Tom Candiotti | 1986 | CLE | 79 | 47 | $ 4,525,000 | 6 | 62.09 | 36.52 |
| Brian Holton | 1985 | LAN | 16 | 5 | $ 125,000 | 2 | 116.30 | 36.34 |
| Kevin Millar | 1998 | FLO | 56 | 16 | $ 7,535,000 | 7 | 125.08 | 35.74 |
| Darrell May | 2002 | KCA | 27 | 11 | $ 2,575,000 | 3 | 87.00 | 35.44 |
| Bruce Ruffin | 1993 | COL | 44 | 22 | $ 3,350,000 | 4 | 70.16 | 35.08 |
| Tony Fiore | 2001 | MIN | 10 | 4 | $ 330,000 | 1 | 85.99 | 34.40 |
| Mike Stanley | 1992 | NYA | 60 | 24 | $ 4,675,000 | 5 | 84.46 | 33.78 |
| De Wayne Buice | 1986 | CAL | 13 | 8 | $ 212,500 | 2 | 54.87 | 33.77 |
| Matt Stairs | 1996 | OAK | 69 | 25 | $ 8,820,000 | 6 | 90.05 | 32.63 |
| Travis Harper | 1998 | TBA | 18 | 3 | $ 502,000 | 2 | 195.49 | 32.58 |
| Carl Willis | 1991 | MIN | 28 | 11 | $ 1,325,000 | 3 | 81.42 | 31.99 |
| Doug Jones | 1985 | CLE | 61 | 38 | $ 5,135,000 | 6 | 51.20 | 31.90 |
| Jeff Fassero | 1991 | MON | 65 | 32 | $ 8,398,167 | 6 | 63.40 | 31.21 |
| Salomon Torres | 2002 | PIT | 19 | 6 | $ 1,100,000 | 2 | 96.70 | 30.54 |
| Jamie Moyer | 1997 | SEA | 110 | 63 | $ 38,500,000 | 8 | 52.69 | 30.17 |
| Brian Bohanon | 1997 | NYN | 13 | 5 | $ 555,000 | 2 | 78.12 | 29.70 |
| Doug Jones | 1999 | OAK | 17 | 7 | $ 1,000,000 | 2 | 71.63 | 29.50 |
| Shigetoshi Hasegawa | 1997 | ANA | 39 | 14 | $ 6,165,000 | 6 | 81.24 | 29.16 |
| Scott Hatteberg | 2002 | OAK | 47 | 17 | $ 4,950,000 | 3 | 78.78 | 28.50 |
| Billy Taylor | 1994 | OAK | 37 | 16 | $ 4,442,500 | 5 | 67.05 | 28.29 |
| Kevin Seitzer | 1992 | ML4 | 16 | 6 | $ 818,000 | 3 | 74.63 | 27.99 |
| Tony Phillips | 1990 | DET | 109 | 59 | $ 14,600,000 | 6 | 51.02 | 27.61 |
| Anthony Telford | 1997 | MON | 27 | 7 | $ 2,620,000 | 5 | 104.52 | 27.10 |
| Bill Landrum | 1989 | PIT | 32 | 17 | $ 2,147,500 | 4 | 50.86 | 27.02 |
| Al Martin | 1992 | PIT | 87 | 22 | $ 10,493,167 | 8 | 106.71 | 26.98 |
| Mike Williams | 1998 | PIT | 28 | 10 | $ 3,200,000 | 4 | 74.19 | 26.16 |
| Bob Wells | 1999 | MIN | 25 | 9 | $ 4,060,000 | 5 | 72.34 | 26.04 |
| Steve Finley | 1999 | ARI | 113 | 56 | $ 32,750,000 | 6 | 51.98 | 25.93 |
Not quite what we expected, eh? Dale Mohorcic? But maybe this can tell us something. The best free agents or at least best buys are marginal players who are signed for a modest amount but perform well during their stint with the new team. Yes, the Barry Bonds of the world are pretty good buys as well, but the high-profile free agents appear to be much bigger gamble to pay off. Then again, signing Mohorcic may not help get you fannies in seats.
Other entries in the Trade Series:
Mike: I'll Take Manhattan: Baseball's Most Lopsided Trades: Parts I, I (revised), II
Lee Even Stevens: Parts I, II—The Sexy Version
Cain and A-Rod—A Bling-Bling Rivalry: Parts I, II
Kansas City Blues: Parts I, II
Baseball's Most Lopsided Trades—The Revenge of Glenn Davis
Organizational Skills, Part I, II
The Best of Drafts, The Worst of Drafts
Free to Be... Bonds and El Tiante, Part I
Studes: The Best and Worst Teams of the Trade
Sources:
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