Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
I am the vessel. The draft is God's. And God is the thirsty one.
Dag "Atlee" Hammarskjöld
I am come, young ladies, in a very moralizing strain, to observe that our pleasures of this world are always to be for, and that we often purchase them at a great disadvantage, giving readi-monied actual happiness for a draft on the future, that may not be honoured.
Jane Austen "Kearns"
What was the best draft in baseball history? What was the worst?
What team drafted the most talent in one draft class? The least? Has any team ever had a draft so bad that none of the players drafted ever contributed at the major-league level?
After sifting through the data for developing talent at an organizational level, it occurred to me that the statistics that Studes and I developed could be used to evaluate individual drafts.
So which draft class had the most talent ever? Let's ask Mr. Owl
Based on Win Shares Above Baseline (WSAB), here are the top ten:
Yr | Career WS | WSAB Career |
1985 | 6488 | 2667 |
1981 | 6179 | 2239 |
1989 | 5713 | 2195 |
1968 | 6150 | 2193 |
1978 | 5821 | 2088 |
1987 | 6239 | 2068 |
1982 | 5798 | 2044 |
1976 | 5449 | 2042 |
1967 | 5156 | 2020 |
1986 | 6559 | 1996 |
What made 1985 so special besides Foreigner's classic "I Want To Know What Love Is" and, of course, the nonpareil Starship rendition of "We Built This City"? Here are the top players drafted that year:
Name | Team | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Barry Bonds | PIT | 664 | 474 |
Rafael Palmeiro | CHN | 384 | 206 |
Randy Johnson | MON | 286 | 190 |
Will Clark | SFN | 331 | 183 |
Barry Larkin | CIN | 346 | 169 |
John Smoltz | DET | 234 | 148 |
Mark Grace | CHN | 294 | 145 |
Chuck Finley | CAL | 214 | 119 |
David Justice | ATL | 233 | 108 |
Brady Anderson | BOS | 214 | 93 |
John Wetteland | LAN | 128 | 78 |
B.J. Surhoff | MIL | 227 | 64 |
Gregg Jefferies | NYN | 162 | 52 |
Todd Stottlemyre | TOR | 115 | 43 |
Brian McRae | KCA | 132 | 42 |
Jeff Brantley | SFN | 88 | 41 |
Mike Stanley | TEX | 145 | 39 |
Bobby Thigpen | CHA | 71 | 37 |
Bobby Witt | TEX | 103 | 34 |
Randy Velarde | CHA | 126 | 31 |
Bruce Ruffin | PHI | 76 | 31 |
Joe Magrane | SLN | 61 | 30 |
Greg Harris | SDN | 55 | 26 |
Pete Incaviglia | MON | 107 | 25 |
There are maybe a half dozen Hall of Famers in that group plus a good many with productive careers as useful regulars and or long-time role players. And of course, it had the best player from the amateur draft era in Barry Bonds.
The next best draft was 1981:
Name | Team | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Tony Gwynn | SDN | 398 | 214 |
Fred McGriff | NYA | 341 | 173 |
David Cone | KCA | 205 | 122 |
Frank Viola | MIN | 187 | 118 |
Paul O'Neill | CIN | 259 | 113 |
Mark Langston | SEA | 184 | 107 |
Joe Carter | CHN | 240 | 96 |
Kevin McReynolds | SDN | 202 | 95 |
John Franco | LAN | 183 | 93 |
Lenny Dykstra | NYN | 201 | 90 |
Mickey Tettleton | OAK | 184 | 73 |
Mark Gubicza | KCA | 141 | 72 |
Devon White | CAL | 207 | 67 |
John Kruk | SDN | 156 | 65 |
Mike Moore | SEA | 133 | 61 |
Glenn Davis | HOU | 132 | 59 |
Phil Bradley | SEA | 124 | 54 |
Sid Fernandez | LAN | 117 | 45 |
Ron Darling | TEX | 106 | 43 |
Bob Tewksbury | NYA | 101 | 40 |
There are a lot of good players in their, possibly more depth than in 1985, but only one surefire HoFer (Gwynn) and one borderline one, at least in the future voters' minds (McGriff).
The next best draft was 1989:
Name | Team | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Jeff Bagwell | BOS | 385 | 245 |
Frank Thomas | CHA | 359 | 218 |
Jim Thome | CLE | 278 | 160 |
John Olerud | TOR | 294 | 144 |
Jeff Kent | TOR | 269 | 139 |
Chuck Knoblauch | MIN | 231 | 119 |
Tim Salmon | CAL | 229 | 116 |
Brian Giles | CLE | 199 | 112 |
Ryan Klesko | ATL | 209 | 99 |
Mo Vaughn | BOS | 200 | 96 |
Trevor Hoffman | CIN | 132 | 76 |
Scott Erickson | MIN | 120 | 58 |
Denny Neagle | MIN | 115 | 56 |
J.T. Snow | NYA | 160 | 55 |
Shane Reynolds | HOU | 94 | 41 |
A lot of the players are still active in this group so their value could rise. Bagwell and Thomas are probable HoFers with a handful of potentials.
Next is 1968, the year of Dodger infielders and Phillies outfielders:
Name | Team | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Ron Cey | LAN | 280 | 135 |
George Foster | SFN | 269 | 130 |
Steve Garvey | LAN | 279 | 123 |
Greg Luzinski | PHI | 247 | 118 |
Gary Matthews | SFN | 257 | 116 |
Cecil Cooper | BOS | 241 | 106 |
Thurman Munson | NYA | 206 | 104 |
Davey Lopes | LAN | 240 | 103 |
George Hendrick | OAK | 237 | 100 |
Doyle Alexander | LAN | 192 | 93 |
Garry Maddox | SFN | 203 | 79 |
Bill Lee | BOS | 125 | 70 |
Bob Forsch | SLN | 154 | 70 |
Bill Buckner | LAN | 226 | 67 |
Paul Splittorff | KCA | 140 | 64 |
Al Bumbry | BAL | 169 | 64 |
No probable HoFers in this group but a lot of very talented players. And we'll revisit the Dodgers angle in a minute.
Rounding out the top five is 1978:
Name | Team | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Cal Ripken Jr. | BAL | 427 | 230 |
Ryne Sandberg | PHI | 346 | 199 |
Dave Stieb | TOR | 210 | 129 |
Tony Phillips | MON | 268 | 109 |
Kent Hrbek | MIN | 230 | 99 |
Steve Sax | LAN | 198 | 90 |
Kirk Gibson | DET | 218 | 85 |
Doug Jones | MIL | 146 | 79 |
Mike Boddicker | BAL | 132 | 73 |
Charlie Leibrandt | CIN | 138 | 73 |
Lloyd Moseby | TOR | 177 | 68 |
Steve Bedrosian | ATL | 119 | 59 |
Jesse Orosco | MIN | 140 | 58 |
Tom Brunansky | CAL | 175 | 58 |
Mike Witt | CAL | 117 | 57 |
Two HoF middle infielders (Ripken and Sandberg) and a bunch of useful players. Not bad at all.
OK, so which were the worst drafts? This gets complicated. First, because more recent drafts are for players whose careers are, in most cases, nowhere near completion. The second complication is that Retrosheet has draft data only for players active through 2002.
Given this I am giving any draft since 1994 a Mulligan. Here are the worst ten drafts outside that period:
Yr | Career WS | WSAB Career |
1980 | 3730 | 1047 |
1993 | 3315 | 1077 |
1992 | 3640 | 1105 |
1975 | 3568 | 1149 |
1966 | 3840 | 1333 |
1991 | 4894 | 1385 |
1974 | 4266 | 1411 |
1990 | 4583 | 1471 |
1983 | 4615 | 1485 |
1972 | 4520 | 1609 |
1980 was the worst draft ever? I wonder who the number one pick was, perhaps the most disappointing player of the draft era:
Name | Team | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Darryl Strawberry | NYN | 252 | 130 |
Eric Davis | CIN | 224 | 97 |
Tom Henke | TEX | 140 | 81 |
Danny Tartabull | CIN | 188 | 79 |
Darren Daulton | PHI | 159 | 65 |
Tim Burke | PIT | 86 | 49 |
Harold Reynolds | SEA | 123 | 46 |
Kelly Gruber | CLE | 95 | 40 |
Craig Lefferts | CHN | 91 | 38 |
Walt Terrell | TEX | 87 | 33 |
Oil Can Boyd | BOS | 73 | 31 |
Jim Eisenreich | MIN | 108 | 23 |
Matt Young | SEA | 55 | 22 |
Glenn Wilson | DET | 94 | 20 |
Dennis Rasmussen | CAL | 69 | 20 |
I remember when Strawberry was signed. It was before the draft was front page news even in the sports section, but Darryl was so highly touted that the draft was pretty big news.
You know, the list of players does not look that bad. Strawberry and Davis had some great years and a number of the others were pretty good, but there really isn't much of an All-Star team that could be put together here.
The next worst was 1993, which might be unfair. It just missed our arbitrary cutoff, but we have to have some sort of cutoff, so
Name | Team | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Alex Rodriguez | SEA | 281 | 189 |
Scott Rolen | PHI | 214 | 132 |
Billy Wagner | HOU | 108 | 67 |
Derrek Lee | SDN | 114 | 51 |
Mark Loretta | MIL | 133 | 51 |
Paul Lo Duca | LAN | 91 | 47 |
Richie Sexson | CLE | 102 | 43 |
Kevin Millwood | ATL | 85 | 42 |
Torii Hunter | MIN | 84 | 31 |
Jeff Suppan | BOS | 74 | 31 |
Bill Mueller | SFN | 118 | 31 |
Jermaine Dye | ATL | 91 | 30 |
Trot Nixon | BOS | 84 | 30 |
Brian Moehler | DET | 49 | 22 |
Scott Sullivan | CIN | 54 | 21 |
Chris Carpenter | TOR | 54 | 20 |
John Thomson | COL | 56 | 20 |
I would say that the general caliber of player is higher here than in 1980. This class should be better served when all is said and done. Still, A-Rod should be a HoFer when he retires and Rolen and Wagner may get there.
Next is 1992, which again contains a good number of active players:
Name | Team | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Jason Giambi | OAK | 236 | 143 |
Derek Jeter | NYA | 219 | 128 |
Jason Kendall | PIT | 164 | 75 |
Johnny Damon | KCA | 170 | 75 |
Bobby Higginson | DET | 157 | 64 |
Phil Nevin | HOU | 132 | 58 |
Jose Vidro | MON | 119 | 54 |
Rich Aurilia | TEX | 128 | 51 |
Shannon Stewart | TOR | 126 | 49 |
Jon Lieber | KCA | 91 | 38 |
Charles Johnson | FLO | 131 | 37 |
Rick Helling | TEX | 75 | 29 |
Preston Wilson | NYN | 77 | 24 |
Scott Karl | MIL | 47 | 16 |
Paul Shuey | CLE | 52 | 16 |
Juan Acevedo | COL | 43 | 16 |
Jeter is probably the player with the best shot at the Hall here.
Next is 1975:
Name | Team | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Lou Whitaker | DET | 351 | 171 |
Andre Dawson | MON | 340 | 165 |
Lee Smith | CHN | 198 | 118 |
Carney Lansford | CAL | 244 | 104 |
Dave Stewart | LAN | 141 | 68 |
Jason Thompson | DET | 165 | 64 |
Gene Richards | SDN | 122 | 53 |
Don Robinson | PIT | 116 | 49 |
Glenn Hubbard | ATL | 140 | 39 |
Bump Wills | TEX | 94 | 35 |
Willie Upshaw | NYA | 107 | 33 |
Dave Rozema | DET | 76 | 29 |
Keith Moreland | PHI | 115 | 27 |
Jim Beattie | NYA | 63 | 25 |
Willie Aikens | CAL | 77 | 25 |
Tim Stoddard | CHA | 57 | 20 |
Dawson and Smith are still on the active BBWAA ballot for the Hall, and I would have to think that Whitaker will get some strong consideration from the Veterans. However, it's not inconceivable that no one from this class will get into Cooperstown, not even Tim Stoddard.
Rounding out the top five worst drafts is 1966, the second year of the draft:
Name | Team | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Reggie Jackson | KC | 444 | 252 |
Charlie Hough | LAN | 233 | 117 |
Andy Messersmith | CAL | 169 | 109 |
Joe Niekro | CHN | 189 | 87 |
Richie Hebner | PIT | 219 | 79 |
Gary Nolan | CIN | 113 | 63 |
Dave Cash | PIT | 165 | 62 |
Bill Russell | LAN | 185 | 46 |
Carlos May | CHA | 120 | 42 |
Del Unser | WAS | 138 | 39 |
Ken Brett | BOS | 80 | 35 |
Ted Sizemore | LAN | 130 | 33 |
Clay Kirby | SLN | 64 | 29 |
Bill Stoneman | CHN | 56 | 28 |
Cliff Johnson | HOU | 134 | 26 |
Steve Braun | MIN | 121 | 26 |
Tom Hall | MIN | 57 | 25 |
George Stone | ATL | 54 | 23 |
Ken Tatum | CAL | 36 | 21 |
Jackson was the plumb here. There's no one else who would even be considered strong Hall candidates.
Now, let's look at the best individual drafts per team. Here are the top fifteen, what that heck:
Team | Yr | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 1968 | 1611 | 644 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 1985 | 696 | 477 |
Boston Red Sox | 1976 | 856 | 412 |
Detroit Tigers | 1976 | 828 | 395 |
Boston Red Sox | 1983 | 680 | 382 |
San Diego Padres | 1981 | 797 | 381 |
Boston Red Sox | 1989 | 697 | 375 |
Kansas City Athletics | 1965 | 797 | 370 |
Chicago Cubs | 1985 | 704 | 351 |
Chicago Cubs | 1984 | 651 | 347 |
Cleveland Indians | 1989 | 737 | 336 |
Milwaukee Brewers | 1986 | 704 | 336 |
Baltimore Orioles | 1973 | 620 | 328 |
San Francisco Giants | 1968 | 755 | 326 |
Cincinnati Reds | 1965 | 703 | 322 |
Wow, the Dodgers really kicked that draft in 1968. We saw how well the Dodgers did in 1968 earlier, but they really blow away everyone else. Here is their entire Dodger draft class:
Player | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Ron Cey | 280 | 135 |
Steve Garvey | 279 | 123 |
Davey Lopes | 240 | 103 |
Doyle Alexander | 192 | 93 |
Bill Buckner | 226 | 67 |
Geoff Zahn | 111 | 54 |
Joe Ferguson | 130 | 50 |
Tom Paciorek | 105 | 18 |
Sandy Vance | 7 | 1 |
Bobby Valentine | 38 | 0 |
Bob Gallagher | 3 | 0 |
That may be as good as a few of the poorer drafts for all teams combined above. It seems incredible that they garnered three-quarters of their great infield in well fell swoop, but there it is. Plus Buckner who was a pretty good first baseman (and outfielder) as well as a couple of starting pitchers, a catcher, and a couple of bench guys.
The 1985 Pirates are number two on the list. I wonder why
Player | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Barry Bonds | 664 | 474 |
Bill Sampen | 17 | 3 |
Tommy Gregg | 13 | 0 |
Brett Gideon | 2 | 0 |
Yep, Bonds and a few stiffs.
Numero tres: The 1976 Red Sox draft
Player | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Wade Boggs | 394 | 222 |
Bruce Hurst | 144 | 82 |
John Tudor | 135 | 77 |
Mike Smithson | 63 | 29 |
Glenn Hoffman | 41 | 2 |
Reid Nichols | 31 | 0 |
Gary Allenson | 22 | 0 |
Dennis Burtt | 2 | 0 |
Chico Walker | 24 | 0 |
One Hall of Famer (Boggs) and basically most of the early Eighties Sox plus Chico Walker priceless.
Number four is also from 1976, the Tigers draft class:
Player | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Alan Trammell | 318 | 154 |
Jack Morris | 225 | 130 |
Steve Kemp | 139 | 57 |
Dan Petry | 108 | 48 |
Pat Underwood | 16 | 3 |
Kip Young | 9 | 3 |
Roger Weaver | 3 | 0 |
Glenn Gulliver | 5 | 0 |
Dave Stegman | 5 | 0 |
Trammell and Morris are still both on the BBWAA Hall ballot. And most of the rest were part of the Tigers' core in the early Eighties.
Number five was the Red Sox again, in 1983:
Player | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Roger Clemens | 398 | 272 |
Ellis Burks | 260 | 107 |
Dana Kiecker | 9 | 3 |
Mike Dalton | 0 | 0 |
Mike Brumley | 7 | 0 |
John Mitchell | 6 | 0 |
They got arguably the best pitcher of his era and very good center fielder/DH in Burks, but not much else.
I'm throwing in the 1981 Padres since they were one point out of fifth and since I like their group:
Player | Career WS | WSAB Career |
Tony Gwynn | 398 | 214 |
Kevin McReynolds | 202 | 95 |
John Kruk | 156 | 65 |
Bill Long | 26 | 7 |
Paul Noce | 3 | 0 |
Greg Booker | 12 | 0 |
One Hall of Famer, two pretty good regulars, and a couple of average pitchers. Not quite the Dodgers in 1968 but I like it.
Now for the worst drafts This also gets complicated. There are sixteen teams that had zero Win Shares in total for the players that reached the majors. That's pretty bad, but there were four teams that didn't even have one player drafted reach the majors at all (prior to 1998).I'd say that they qualify for the worst. They are:
Team | Yr |
Cincinnati Reds | 1973 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 1980 |
Atlanta Braves | 1981 |
Minnesota Twins | 1983 |
Other entries in the Trade Series:
Mike: I'll Take Manhattan: Baseball's Most Lopsided Trades: Parts I, I (revised), II
Lee Even Stevens: Parts I, IIThe Sexy Version
Cain and A-RodA Bling-Bling Rivalry: Parts I, II
Kansas City Blues: Parts I, II
Baseball's Most Lopsided TradesThe Revenge of Glenn Davis
Studes: The Best and Worst Teams of the Trade
Sources:
Fascinating stuff. Could you adjust for career length by using some sort of Win Shares rate instead?
Great list. Even though 1994 was an arbitrary cutoff, I have to think you'd really need to go back a few more years--the guys on the 1993 list, for example, could add well over a 100 Win Shares a year for a while still. In fact, I could see them easily escaping the "worst drafts" list altogether when all is said and done. Wouldn't, say, a 1990 or 1991 cutoff be a better line?
I know you've retired the Joe Morgan thing, but his Sunday night stolen base stuff was truly the Joe Morgan Chat Day calibre. "It's not like every guy who gets throw out stealing is going to score." Thanks Joe. Thanks a lot.
Any thoughts?
If you mean in order to filter out lifetime bench players who have long careers as opposed to Albert Belle-types, we created WSAB to do that. It sets a baseline for each year that the player must beat in order to get credit for his Win Shares. A career sub will likely have a bunch of WS but not too many WSAB. Look at Valentine and Eisenreich's (though he did start briefly as well in his career) numbers above.
It's difficult to make a full assessment until some of these players have logged a good bunch of years. Look at the worst draft assessment: even with a cutoff that's 11 years old, the full story is not told yet. I'm not sure if Arbuckle era is mature enough to tell us much.
You say po-tat-o. There are only 40 years of data. Eliminating 15 would leave almost every year on the best or worst lists. After looking at the data 1993 seemed to be the point at which the number of active players dropped. 1994 had a bunch more if I recall correctly. You have to go back to 1982 to find a draft without an active player. When you look at the average players from the early 90s drafts, a number are out of the game. 1994 still had a few, so I chose it as the dividing line.
Lil Joe has a loose grasp of the obvious. My response is that not every player that steals a base scores either, but that isn't even the argument. It involves accumulated evidence, but Joe's more intested in what he can very readily grasp: Man steals base, batter singles, man scores. Stolen Base is good. Fire bad.
I think Studes is working on something for the Mets. I'll ask him.
There were three standout Mets' drafts:
1965, 1967 and 1982. The best player the Mets ever drafted was Nolan Ryan.
He's doing an article on the Mets that will contain more.
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