Parts I, II, III, & IV

In 1986 Major League Baseball pushed the non-waiver trade deadline back a month and a half to July 31. The result was that the deals had far less impact—the players were on their new teams for a month and a half less after all—, but my belief is that they were much more well-directed. With the extra month and a half teams know a bit better what their final fate will likely be. They also know a bit more about what their needs are.

My theory is that deadline trades evolved at this point, and we will no longer see so many lopsided deals favoring the non-contending team. Let's test the theory by looking at the most lopsided deals since the trade deadline was moved. Remember this is based on what the players did during the season in which the trade took place:

#1) July 29, 1999: The A's get Omar Olivares and Randy Velarde from the Angels for Jeff Davanon, Elvin Nina, and Nathan Haynes

Career Win Shares prior to trade: 151
Above Baseline: 39
Career Win Shares following trade: 24
Above Baseline: 15
Win Shares prior to trade for that season: 17
Above Baseline: 10
Win Shares following trade for that season: 22
Above Baseline: 13
Total Win Shares ahead for the season: 39

Yeah, I wouldn't have thought of it either. The A's were 51-50 at the time of the trade, in second place, nine games behind the Rangers. The were also four games behind the Red Sox, in third place for the wild card. They ended up 87-75 still in second place, 8 games out in the West, and 7 games out in the wild card. They were 36-25 after the trade improving by 85 percentage points though the Rangers and Red Sox kept them at arm's length.

The Angels were 43-57 in last in the AL West, 16.5 games back at the time of the trade. They obviously were trading for the future getting three prospects. They ended up 70-92, in last, 25 games out. They were 27-35 after the trade. Their record remained largely unchanged (improved by 5 percentage points) after the trade.

The A's gave up three guys that would play a total of seven games in the majors that year, all by Davanon. The other two never made it to the majors, and it took until 2003 for Davanon to stick (he played 63 games in total from 1999-2002).

Meanwhile, Olivares was 7-2 with a good ERA (111 ERA+) and Velarde had the half-year of his career (125 OPS+) as the A's starting second baseman. They got two pretty good players for 60-odd games for nothing.

#2) July 31, 1998: The Astros get Randy Johnson from the Mariners for Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, and a player to be named later (John Halama, sent October 1, 1998)

Career Win Shares prior to trade: 132
Above Baseline: 77
Career Win Shares following trade: 6
Above Baseline: 1
Win Shares prior to trade for that season: 3
Above Baseline: 2
Win Shares following trade for that season: 14
Above Baseline: 11
Total Win Shares ahead for the season: 17

Now, that's more like it. The big Big Unit trade.

The 'Stros were 65-44 at the time of the trade. They led the NL Central by 3.5 games over the Cubs, but had the worst record of the three NL division leaders. They ended up 102-60, 12.5 games in front of the Cubs with the NL Central crown. Houston was 37-16, with Johnson winning ten of those games, after the trade. That's a 102-percentage point improvement.

The M's were 48-60, tied for last, ten games out of first at the time of the trade. They ended up 76-85, 11.5 games out. They were 28-25 after the trade, an 84-point improvement.

Johnson went 10-1 in Houston with a 1.28 ERA or a phenomenal 318 ERA+. He also had a 1.93 ERA in two postseason starts, unfortunately both for losses. Garcia remained in the minors for the entire season and Guillen played his first ten major-league games in Seattle after the trade. Both became good players so it was a trade that worked for both teams in that they both met their intended goals, the M's rebuilding and the Astros getting to the postseason.

#3) July 31, 1997: The Giants get Wilson Alvarez, Danny Darwin, and Roberto Hernandez from the White Sox for Lorenzo Barcelo, Mike Caruso, Keith Foulke, Bobby Howry, Ken Vining, and Brian Manning.

Career Win Shares prior to trade: 308
Above Baseline: 158
Career Win Shares following trade: -58
Above Baseline: -35
Win Shares prior to trade for that season: 22
Above Baseline: 13
Win Shares following trade for that season: 11
Above Baseline: 7
Total Win Shares ahead for the season: 33

The dreaded "White Flag Trade"! This was a shocking move at the time: the Sox were three games out of first when they just gave up seemingly. This has since been revisited and with the success of Foulke, Howry, and Caruso, the Sox now seem to get a pass, but what did it mean for the 1997 season?

At the time of the trade, the Giants were tied the Dodgers for first in the NL West with a 59-49 record. There were also two wild card teams with better records. The Sox were three games behind the Indians, but were a .500 team (53-53) and were in third in the AL Central, a half-game behind the Brewers in their final AL season. They were in a worse position for the wild card: fourth place and 8 games behind the leader (Yankees).

At the end of the season, the Giants were the NL West leaders with a 90-72 record, two games ahead of the Dodgers (even though they were outscored by 9 runs). They were swept in the first round of the playoffs by the wild card Marlins on their way to their first World Series crown. The White Sox ended up in second place, one game under .500 (80-81), six games behind the Indians.

So after the trade the Giants went 31-23, just 28 percentage points higher than their pre-trade record. However, the difference meant a two-game lead over the Dodgers down the stretch. The Sox were 27-28 after the trade, nine points worse than before the trade.

Alvarez was 4-3 for the Giants but carried a 4.48 record, 8 percent worse than the park-adjusted league average. Darwin was 1-3 with a 4.91 ERA, 16 percent worse than average. Hernandez was 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 4 saves as mostly a setup man in San Fran. So the starters disappointed but the converted closer helped.

However, Foulke had similar numbers to Hernandez in Chicago (3-0, 3.45, 3 saves, and 127 ERA+). Then again, he was the only player that the White Sox received in the trade who played for them that year. Howry and Caruso would play significant roles on the team in 1998, but Barcelo tool another two years, Vining took three, and Manning never made it to the show.

So overall both teams basically got what they needed but neither got as much out of the players as they hoped.

#4) July 31, 2000: The Blue Jays get Mark Guthrie and Steve Trachsel from the D Rays for Brent Abernathy.

Career Win Shares prior to trade: 108
Above Baseline: 33
Career Win Shares following trade: 49
Above Baseline: 22
Win Shares prior to trade for that season: 4
Above Baseline: 1
Win Shares following trade for that season: 11
Above Baseline: 4
Total Win Shares ahead for the season: 15

In 2000, the surprising Blue Jays were challenging the two perennially dominant teams in the AL East, the Yankees and Red Sox. They trailed the Yankees by 4.5 games in the East and Oakland by 4 games in the wild card at the time of the trade (55-52). The Blue Jays finished 4.5 games back in the East and 8 games out of the wild card (83-79). They were 28-27 after the trade, just slightly (5 percentage points) worse than their pre-trade record.

On July 31, the D Rays were in their usual last place, 13.5 games out with a 44-59 record. They finished 69-92, 18 games out. Their record was 25-33 after the trade, just slightly better than their pre-trade record (4 percentage points).

Abernathy wouldn't make it to the majors for another year and started for just one year (2002). Trachsel was just 2-5 in 11 Toronto starts with a 5.29 ERA, 6% worse than the park-adjusted league average. Guthrie was 0-2 in 20.2 innings as a left0handed specialist in Toronto and had a 4.79 ERA, 4% better than average.

To be continued…