Parts I & II

Alrighty now, no teams can pull the trigger for a decent player at the trade deadline today. Kyle Farnsworth? Buddy Groom? Ron Villone? Geoff Blum? Matt Lawton for Jody Gerut? That's what we get.

In Philly, Ed Wade's usual hibernation through trade deadline went largely unnoticed by the locals, who were busy following T.O.'s itinerary at the Eagles training camp. With the Phils conceivably within striking distance of a playoff spot but far from an actual playoff-caliber team, Wade was caught like a deer in the headlights not knowing to buy or sell. He's left with two closers, two first basemen, and at least two center fielders. Last year they were left with just two second baseman. I guess that's an improvement. Wade had two excuses beyond his incompetence this year: First, he can claim that the Phils were still in contention though the experienced fan knew better, and second, nobody else was doing any trading either. Hopefully, that won't be enough to save his job at year's end.

What better time than now to discuss the trade deadline deals of the past? Now, where was I?

#3) June 13, 1953: The Browns traded Virgil Trucks and Bob Elliott to the White Sox for Darrell Johnson, Lou Kretlow, and $75K.

Career Win Shares prior to trade: 393
Above Baseline: 200
Career Win Shares following trade: 60
Above Baseline: 39
Win Shares prior to trade for that season: 14
Above Baseline: 8
Win Shares following trade for that season: 19
Above Baseline: 12
Total Win Shares ahead for the season: 33

The Sox were tied for fourth place with the Senators with a 28-26 record, 13 games behind the first-place Yankees at the time of the trade. They ended up 11.5 games back in third (89-65, .578). Their record after the trade was 61-39 with a .610 winning percentage. They improved greatly but were too far back to really contend.

The Browns were in seventh, 19-36, 22-1/2 games behind New York. They ended up last, 46-1/2 games out (54-100, .351). They were consistently awful with a 35-64, .354 record after the trade.

I already discussed this trade in the previous section but, quickly: Trucks was a twenty-game winner, going 15-6 with a 2.86 ERA, 41% better than the park-adjusted league average with the Sox. Elliott went .260/.358/.380 with an adjusted OPS 3% worse than average. Johnson was in the minors all season. Kretlow remained a former "bonus baby" bust.

#4) June 1, 1976: The Twins get Bill Singer, Roy Smalley, Mike Cubbage, Jim Gideon, and $250K from the Rangers for Bert Blyleven and Danny Thompson.

Career Win Shares prior to trade: -40
Above Baseline: -40
Career Win Shares following trade: 13
Above Baseline: -53
Win Shares prior to trade for that season: 1
Above Baseline: -2
Win Shares following trade for that season: 17
Above Baseline: 3
Total Win Shares ahead for the season: 18

This is one that backfired. The Rangers were in second place, one game behind first-place KC at the time of the trade (25-18). They finished the season tied for fourth with a 76-86 record, fourteen games behind the Royals. They had a 51-68 record (.429) after the trade. Their winning percentage before the trade dropped over 150 points after the trade.

The Twins were in fourth, five games out with a 21-22 record when they traded Blyleven. They ended up in third with a 85-77 record, still five games out. That's a 64-55 record (.538) after the trade, a 50-point winning percentage improvement.

The Rangers gave up youngsters Smalley and Cubbage, who were stuck behind Harrah and Hargrove respectively, along with the veteran Singer for Blyleven and the abysmal Thompson. Blyleven pitched well but the youngsters made in impact in Minnesota and Singer pitched competently.

#5) June 1, 1943: The Phils get Buster Adams, Dain Clay, and Coaker Triplett from the Cards for Danny Litwhiler and Earl Naylor.

Career Win Shares prior to trade: -27
Above Baseline: -10
Career Win Shares following trade: 45
Above Baseline: 23
Win Shares prior to trade for that season: -3
Above Baseline: -1
Win Shares following trade for that season: 16
Above Baseline: 2
Total Win Shares ahead for the season: 13

Here's another that backfired but the Cardinals won the division anyway.

On June 1, the Phils were 17-19 in sixth place, 6.5 games behind the Dodgers. The Phils finished second to last with a 64-90 record. They were 47-71 after the trade and saw their percentage drop by almost 75 points.

At the time of the trade the Cardinals were a half-game out of first (23-13). They won the division by 18 games with a 105-49 record. They were 82-36 after the trade.

Buster Adams was a 28-year-old, rookie center fielder who blossomed (130 OPS+ in 1944, 118 in 1945) and wilted (72 OPS+ in 1946) in the course of about four seasons. Tripplet was given the chance to start, in left field, for the first time in his career and had a great year for the Phils (128 OPS+). Clay was traded five days later (for Charlie Brewster) and never played for the Phils.

Litwhiler was an All-Star as a rookie in 1942 and played reasonably well for both teams in 1943 but only appeared in 116 games (80 for the Cards). Naylor was the Brooks Kieschnick of his day pitching in 20 games and playing mostly center in 34 others in 1942. It's too bad he could do neither well (6.12 ERA/54 ERA+ and 43 OPS+). He never played for the Cardinals.

#6t) June 14, 1956: The Giants get Dick Littlefield, Jackie Brandt, Red Schoendienst, Bill Sarni, and a player to be named later (Gordon Jones, October 1) from the Cards for Don Liddle, Alvin Dark, Ray Katt, and Whitey Lockman

Career Win Shares prior to trade: 604
Above Baseline: 249
Career Win Shares following trade: 271
Above Baseline: 75
Win Shares prior to trade for that season: 23
Above Baseline: 4
Win Shares following trade for that season: 49
Above Baseline: 9
Total Win Shares ahead for the season: 18

Here's another one that backfired on the Cardinals, but this time they were unable to overcome it.

At the time of the trade St. Louis was a half-game out of first behind co-leaders Cincinnati and Pittsburgh with a 27-21 record. They ended up 76-78 in fourth place, 17 games out. They were 49-57 after the trade and their winning percentage dipped by 100 points.

The Giants were 19-30, in seventh, nine games out on June 14. They finished in sixth at 67-87, 26 games behind the Dodgers. Their post-trade record was 48-57 (.457), almost 70-percentage points higher.

The Cards received a package of three weak-hitting regulars (ss Dark, LF Lockman, and C Katt) plus a washed-up pitcher (Liddle). Schoendienst was coming of a poor season but would rebound. Littlefield's claim to fame was that he was traded for Jackie Robinson later that year. Sarni was a relatively young catcher whose career ended in spring training of the following year when he suffered a heart attack. Brandt was a left fielding prospect who got to start in New York and who had some pretty good years. Jones was a young journeyman-to-be.

#6t) June 2, 1966: The Red Sox get Don McMahon and Lee Stange from the Indians for Dick Radatz

Career Win Shares prior to trade: 20
Above Baseline: -19
Career Win Shares following trade: 98
Above Baseline: 40
Win Shares prior to trade for that season: 3
Above Baseline: 2
Win Shares following trade for that season: 15
Above Baseline: 9
Total Win Shares ahead for the season: 18

And a trend's developing. The Indians were one game ahead in first place with a 28-16 record at the time of the trade. The Red Sox were last, 11 games back (18-28). The Indians ended up fifth with a 81-81 record, 17 games behind the O's. The Sox finished in ninth (1/2 game ahead of the Yanks), 26 games back with a 72-90 record. Cleveland was 53-65 record after the trade with their winning percentage dropping by almost 200 points, and Boston had 54-62 record, an 75-point swing.

Radatz tanked in Cleveland (75 ERA+). McMahon pitched well as usual (144 ERA+) as did Strange (114 ERA+).

To be continued…