Parts I, II, & III

OK, I left this hanging for a while. So here goes…

Old Deadline Deals (June 15):

#8t) June 2, 1948: The White Sox get Bob Kennedy from the Indians for Pat Seerey and Al Gettel.

Career Win Shares prior to trade: 34
Above Baseline: 17
Career Win Shares following trade: -36
Above Baseline: -4
Win Shares prior to trade for that season: 2
Above Baseline: 1
Win Shares following trade for that season: 15
Above Baseline: 3
Total Win Shares ahead for the season: 17

Again, here is an old school trade deadline deal that hurts, or at least doesn't help, the team it's intended to help. The Indians were either in first or second depending on how you look at it, at the time of the trade. They were percentage points ahead of the A's but were a half-game behind the A's, technically, with a 23-12 record (five fewer games than Philly). The ended up winning the pennant by one game with a 97-58 record. That's a 74-46 record after the trade or a 40-point dip in winning percentage.

The Sox were 10-26, in last place, and 14 games behind the A's at the time of the trade. They ended up last (51-101), 44.5 games behind the Indians. They were 41-75 after the trade or saw their winning percentage increase by 75 points.

Kennedy played well for the Indians but was deeply buried in their bench for the rest of the season (73 ABs in 66 games). Seerey was a low-average, high-on-base, high-slug left fielder, who Billy Beane would probably have drooled over. Gettel has a 123 ERA+ and won 8 games which was one behind the team leader on the south side.

#8t) June 15, 1953: The Tigers get Dick Weik, Al Aber, Ray Boone, and Steve Gromek from the Indians for Art Houtteman, Owen Friend, Bill Wight, and Joe Ginsberg.

Career Win Shares prior to trade: 12
Above Baseline: 1
Career Win Shares following trade: 95
Above Baseline: 54
Win Shares prior to trade for that season: 2
Above Baseline: 4
Win Shares following trade for that season: 15
Above Baseline:12
Total Win Shares ahead for the season: 17

And the trend continues. The Indians were in second trailing the Yanks by 10.5 games at the time of the trade. They ended up 92-62, 8.5 games behind New York. The Indians improved slightly (.588 to .602 winning percentage) after the trade.

The Tigers were in last at the time of the trade (13-41), 29 games out of first. They ended up in sixth (60-94), 40.5 games out. That's 47-53 after the trade, a 229-point winning percentage improvement.

#10) June 13, 1930: The Senators get Heinie Manush and Alvin Crowder from the Browns for Goose Goslin.

Career Win Shares prior to trade: -7
Above Baseline: -19
Career Win Shares following trade: 93
Above Baseline: 60
Win Shares prior to trade for that season: 7
Above Baseline: 6
Win Shares following trade for that season: 13
Above Baseline:9
Total Win Shares ahead for the season: 20

Here's a rare old-school trade deadline deal that actually worked out, in a sense. The Senators were a half-game behind the league leaders, Cleveland and Philly, at the time of the trade (31-19). They ended up in second (94-60), eight games behind the A's. Even this one saw the Senators winning percentage dip slightly (14 percentage points) after the trade. The Browns went from seventh (21-30) at the trade to sixth by the end of the year (64-90). That's a six-point increase. Here Crowder made the difference winning 15 as the two future Hall-of-Fames canceled each other out with great seasons after the trade.

It's apparent from looking at the most lopsided trades when the old deadline was in effect that it was common for these sorts of desperation trades to backfire on the teams they were supposed to benefit. Clearly, the old date was too early. But what about the current one…

To be continued…