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“No! No, not Detroit! No! No, please! Anything but that!”
2008-04-06 21:56
by Mike Carminati

(Kentucky Fried Movie)

That guy is kryptonite on a stick.
—From "The Cooler"

I have never seen a no-hitter. I have put the kibosh on every no-hitter in progress including Johan Santana's opener this year in which he lost his in the bottom of the fourth with two out on a Josh Willingham home run. I feel personally responsible for Steve Carlton never having thrown a no-no. I watched or listened to just about every one of his starts with the Phils.

But I never meant to screw up the Tigers by picking them to win the World Series. Detroit got blown out 13-2 tonight by the White Sox behind their number one starter, Justin Verlander (who, by the way, I picked to win the AL Cy Young, another mea culpa). They are now the only team in baseball to not yet own a win, and this was the team that was supposed to be a juggernaut. Their offense was supposed to be awe-inspiring and yet they have scored an average of 2.5 runs a game, four less than their opponents. And they have been swept by two division rivals that were supposed to be marginal teams at best.

So the Tigers are 0-6, but they have another 156 games to overcome that. An extra win every 26 games would nullify this deficit. It should not be that difficult, right?

Well, if history is any indication, the Tigers have a Herculean task ahead of them, something that just two teams out of 62 have ever been able to overcome. The average 0-6 team that ends up with what equates to a 57-105 record. Just seven had winning records over the full season, just two—the '95 Reds and '74 Pirates—have made the playoffs, and none have ever won their league's pennant, let alone a World Series.

Here are the teams with the best records that started 0-6:

TeamYrWLPCTPOSWon Div?Won WC?Won Lg?Won WS?
Cincinnati Reds19958559.5901YNNN
Pittsburgh Pirates19748874.5431Y NN
Houston Astros19838577.5253N NN
Boston Americans19057874.5134 NN
Detroit Tigers19227975.5133 NN
Seattle Mariners19918379.5125N NN
Atlanta Braves19808180.5034N NN
Detroit Tigers19597678.4944 NN
Troy Trojans18813945.4645 N
Detroit Tigers19927587.4636N NN

And it's not like the Tigers are losing a lot of close ballgames. They have been outscored 15 to 39 or by four runs (2.5 to 6.5) per game. Their expected winning percentage is just .148, which translates into under one win (0.89) in six games. They deserve to be where they are, especially when they bat their catcher, Pudge Rodriguez, leading off. Pudge is a future Hall-of-Famer but he is 36, had a .294 OBP last year (just 13 higher than his batting average with just 9 walks in 515 plate appearances), and owns a less than fabulous .339 OBP for his career.

Oh well, Detroit please accept my apologies.

Comments
2008-04-06 22:21:36
1.   Yu-Hsing Chen
holy shit, hope you picked the Red Sox to win the AL east Mike ;)
2008-04-07 13:31:20
2.   underdog
For a second I thought your subject header was a reference to this cartoon:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byM4_JtOZbk
2008-04-07 14:46:04
3.   Linkmeister
On the other hand, how many pennant-winners had a six-game losing streak at some point during the season? It's only that it's Detroit's first six games that it seems insurmountable.
2008-04-07 16:20:04
4.   Zak
Also, most teams that start 0-6 are not that good, at least on paper. Starting 0-6 is a fluke and the Tigers will be fine. Unfortunately, they won't make the playoffs, but not because they're 0-6, but because they're 0-for-pitchers.
2008-04-07 20:20:37
5.   Yu-Hsing Chen
4 lol on the 0 for pitchers ;) they have 1 though actually.

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