Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Reporter: What's your prediction for the fight?
Apollo Creed (Mr. T): PAIN!
—Rocky III
(Quote in title from Benjamin "Dizzy" Disraeli)
So here we are (finally) at my wife's favorite part of the season. I told her the other day, "No more than seven more games," and she couldn't be happier. Given my sterling reputation for predictions—I picked the Yankees beating the Phils—, I will now pick the eventual winner.
And the survey says….Red Sox in six.
I will be pulling for the Rockies but I just think that the Red sox are a far more talented team from a far more talented league. I know that the Rockies are the hottest team this side of the 1914 Miracle Braves, but just don't see that continuing. I was going to say Sox in five but the pitching changes in game four changed my mind. The Sox left Tim Wakefield off their roster and will replace him in game four with inexperienced John Lester. Meanwhile, Aaron Cook returns to pitch game four for the Rockies after a two and one-half month hiatus. That game could be one big crapshoot. And it will hurt Boston to have to sit either Ortiz or Youkilis for the three non-DH games in Denver, but not that much. The Rockies at least get Spillborgh's bat in the lineup but then again, they keep Taveras in so it's a wash.
Besides this is an instance in which the six and one-half game difference between the two is meaningful given the talent gap between the two leagues. Teams facing playoff opponents who were at least five games worse in the regular season win about 60% of the time and the series goes about five games. In the World Series, that's a 53% winning percentage and a five and one-half game series.
Here are the World Series results for teams playing opponents five or more wins worse than themselves:
| GW | GL | # WS | Tot G | Tot Possible G | |
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 42 | |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 56 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 48 | 56 | |
| 3 | 4 | 9 | 63 | 63 | |
| 4 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 77 | |
| 4 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 63 | |
| 4 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 35 | |
| 4 | 3 | 8 | 56 | 56 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | |
| 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | |
| W | 35 | ||||
| L | 31 | ||||
| Tot | 66 | 365 | 466 | 78% | |
| .530 | 5.48 |
Here are the results in all playoffs series:
| GW | GL | # Series | Tot G | Tot Possible G | |
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 21 | |
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 42 | |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 21 | |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 50 | 70 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 35 | |
| 2 | 4 | 12 | 72 | 84 | |
| 3 | 0 | 13 | 39 | 91 | |
| 3 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 63 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 21 | |
| 3 | 4 | 11 | 77 | 77 | |
| 4 | 0 | 14 | 56 | 98 | |
| 4 | 1 | 11 | 55 | 77 | |
| 4 | 2 | 10 | 60 | 70 | |
| 4 | 3 | 12 | 84 | 84 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | |
| 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | |
| W | 74 | ||||
| L | 50 | ||||
| TOT | 124 | 629 | 872 | 72% | |
| .597 | 5.05 |
By the way, Lester will be just the 28th pitcher to start in the Series after starting fewer than a dozen games in the regular season. The last was David Cone eleven years ago and before that the unbelievable Marty Bystrom for the 1980 Phils.
Here are all said pitches with their results for the seriesL
| Yr | Age | Pitcher | Team | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | ERA | WHIP | K:BB | IP/G | Season GS |
| 1884 | 24 | Buck Becannon | New York Metropolitans | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10.50 | 1.83 | 0.50 | 6.00 | 1 |
| 1886 | 23 | Jimmy Ryan | Chicago White Stockings | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5.0 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 9.00 | 2.40 | 1.00 | 5.00 | 0 |
| 1888 | 23 | Bill George | New York Giants | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10.0 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7.20 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 10.00 | 3 |
| 1888 | 26 | Ed Crane | New York Giants | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17.0 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 2.12 | 1.24 | 2.00 | 8.50 | 11 |
| 1920 | 25 | Duster Mails | Cleveland Indians | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15.7 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - | 0.77 | 1.00 | 7.83 | 8 |
| 1921 | 26 | Harry Harper | New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20.25 | 3.75 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 7 |
| 1922 | 30 | Jack Scott | New York Giants | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | 0.56 | 2.00 | 9.00 | 10 |
| 1926 | 35 | Bob Shawkey | New York Yankees | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10.0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 5.40 | 1.00 | 3.50 | 3.33 | 10 |
| 1929 | 35 | Howard Ehmke | Philadelphia Athletics | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12.7 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1.42 | 1.34 | 4.33 | 6.33 | 8 |
| 1938 | 28 | Dizzy Dean | Chicago Cubs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8.3 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6.48 | 1.08 | 2.00 | 4.17 | 10 |
| 1939 | 22 | Junior Thompson | Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.7 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 13.50 | 1.93 | 0.75 | 4.67 | 11 |
| 1940 | 25 | Dizzy Trout | Detroit Tigers | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9.00 | 3.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 10 |
| 1943 | 29 | Al Brazle | St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3.68 | 0.95 | 2.00 | 7.33 | 9 |
| 1945 | 28 | Virgil Trucks | Detroit Tigers | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13.3 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 3.38 | 1.43 | 1.40 | 6.67 | 1 |
| 1946 | 27 | Red Munger | St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9.0 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 9.00 | 7 |
| 1947 | 22 | Rex Barney | Brooklyn Dodgers | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6.7 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 2.70 | 2.10 | 0.30 | 2.22 | 9 |
| 1948 | 36 | Nels Potter | Boston Braves | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5.3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8.44 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 2.67 | 9 |
| 1948 | 28 | Steve Gromek | Cleveland Indians | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9.0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 2.00 | 9.00 | 9 |
| 1950 | 33 | Jim Konstanty | Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 15.0 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2.40 | 0.87 | 0.75 | 5.00 | 0 |
| 1952 | 28 | Joe Black | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 21.3 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 2.53 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 7.11 | 2 |
| 1955 | 25 | Bob Grim | New York Yankees | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8.7 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4.15 | 1.50 | 1.60 | 2.89 | 11 |
| 1955 | 25 | Roger Craig | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 0.80 | 6.00 | 10 |
| 1956 | 29 | Clem Labine | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12.0 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - | 0.92 | 2.33 | 6.00 | 3 |
| 1967 | 25 | Gary Waslewski | Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8.3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 2.16 | 0.72 | 3.50 | 4.17 | 8 |
| 1967 | 26 | Jose Santiago | Boston Red Sox | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9.7 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 5.59 | 1.97 | 2.00 | 3.22 | 11 |
| 1980 | 21 | Marty Bystrom | Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5.0 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5.40 | 2.20 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 5 |
| 1996 | 33 | David Cone | New York Yankees | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 0.75 | 6.00 | 11 |
| 27 | 27 | Overall | 11 | 15 | 47 | 33 | 244.3 | 224 | 95 | 93 | 126 | 3.50 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 5.20 | 7 |
Now, here all playoff pitchers with fewer than 12 starts in the given regular season:
| Yr | Age | Pitcher | Team | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | Round | ERA | WHIP | K:BB | IP/G | Season GS |
| 1884 | 24 | Buck Becannon | New York Metropolitans | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | WS | 10.50 | 1.83 | 0.50 | 6.00 | 1 |
| 1886 | 23 | Jimmy Ryan | Chicago White Stockings | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5.0 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | WS | 9.00 | 2.40 | 1.00 | 5.00 | 0 |
| 1888 | 23 | Bill George | New York Giants | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10.0 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | WS | 7.20 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 10.00 | 3 |
| 1888 | 26 | Ed Crane | New York Giants | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17.0 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 12 | WS | 2.12 | 1.24 | 2.00 | 8.50 | 11 |
| 1920 | 25 | Duster Mails | Cleveland Indians | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15.7 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | WS | - | 0.77 | 1.00 | 7.83 | 8 |
| 1921 | 26 | Harry Harper | New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | WS | 20.25 | 3.75 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 7 |
| 1922 | 30 | Jack Scott | New York Giants | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | WS | - | 0.56 | 2.00 | 9.00 | 10 |
| 1926 | 35 | Bob Shawkey | New York Yankees | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10.0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 7 | WS | 5.40 | 1.00 | 3.50 | 3.33 | 10 |
| 1929 | 35 | Howard Ehmke | Philadelphia Athletics | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12.7 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 13 | WS | 1.42 | 1.34 | 4.33 | 6.33 | 8 |
| 1938 | 28 | Dizzy Dean | Chicago Cubs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8.3 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2 | WS | 6.48 | 1.08 | 2.00 | 4.17 | 10 |
| 1939 | 22 | Junior Thompson | Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.7 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | WS | 13.50 | 1.93 | 0.75 | 4.67 | 11 |
| 1940 | 25 | Dizzy Trout | Detroit Tigers | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | WS | 9.00 | 3.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 10 |
| 1943 | 29 | Al Brazle | St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | WS | 3.68 | 0.95 | 2.00 | 7.33 | 9 |
| 1945 | 28 | Virgil Trucks | Detroit Tigers | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13.3 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WS | 3.38 | 1.43 | 1.40 | 6.67 | 1 |
| 1946 | 27 | Red Munger | St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9.0 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 2 | WS | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 9.00 | 7 |
| 1947 | 22 | Rex Barney | Brooklyn Dodgers | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6.7 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 3 | WS | 2.70 | 2.10 | 0.30 | 2.22 | 9 |
| 1948 | 28 | Steve Gromek | Cleveland Indians | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9.0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | WS | 1.00 | 0.89 | 2.00 | 9.00 | 9 |
| 1948 | 36 | Nels Potter | Boston Braves | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5.3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | WS | 8.44 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 2.67 | 9 |
| 1950 | 33 | Jim Konstanty | Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 15.0 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | WS | 2.40 | 0.87 | 0.75 | 5.00 | 0 |
| 1952 | 28 | Joe Black | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 21.3 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 9 | WS | 2.53 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 7.11 | 2 |
| 1955 | 25 | Bob Grim | New York Yankees | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8.7 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 8 | WS | 4.15 | 1.50 | 1.60 | 2.89 | 11 |
| 1955 | 25 | Roger Craig | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | WS | 3.00 | 1.50 | 0.80 | 6.00 | 10 |
| 1956 | 29 | Clem Labine | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12.0 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 7 | WS | - | 0.92 | 2.33 | 6.00 | 3 |
| 1967 | 25 | Gary Waslewski | Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8.3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | WS | 2.16 | 0.72 | 3.50 | 4.17 | 8 |
| 1967 | 26 | Jose Santiago | Boston Red Sox | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9.7 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 6 | WS | 5.59 | 1.97 | 2.00 | 3.22 | 11 |
| 1969 | 30 | Bob Miller | Minnesota Twins | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ALCS | 5.40 | 3.00 | UNDEF | 1.67 | 11 |
| 1970 | 22 | Tom Hall | Minnesota Twins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5.3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | ALCS | 6.75 | 1.88 | 1.50 | 2.67 | 11 |
| 1976 | 28 | Larry Gura | Kansas City Royals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10.7 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 4 | ALCS | 4.22 | 1.78 | 4.00 | 5.33 | 2 |
| 1977 | 29 | Larry Gura | Kansas City Royals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | ALCS | 18.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 6 |
| 1979 | 21 | Frank Pastore | Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7.0 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | NLCS | 2.57 | 1.43 | 0.33 | 7.00 | 9 |
| 1980 | 21 | Marty Bystrom | Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5.0 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WS | 5.40 | 2.20 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 5 |
| 1980 | 21 | Marty Bystrom | Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5.3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | NLCS | 1.69 | 1.69 | 0.50 | 5.33 | 5 |
| 1981 | 21 | Mike Jones | Kansas City Royals | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | AWDIV | 2.45 | 1.23 | UNDEF | 7.33 | 11 |
| 1981 | 24 | Dickie Noles | Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | NEDIV | 4.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 4.00 | 8 |
| 1982 | 25 | Pascual Perez | Atlanta Braves | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8.7 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 4 | NLCS | 5.19 | 1.38 | 2.00 | 4.33 | 11 |
| 1990 | 35 | Ted Power | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | NLCS | 3.60 | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.67 | 0 |
| 1995 | 21 | Bob Wolcott | Seattle Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7.0 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 2 | ALCS | 2.57 | 1.86 | 0.40 | 7.00 | 6 |
| 1995 | 27 | Lance Painter | Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | NLDS | 5.40 | 1.40 | 2.00 | 5.00 | 1 |
| 1996 | 33 | David Cone | New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | ALCS | 3.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 6.00 | 11 |
| 1996 | 33 | David Cone | New York Yankees | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 8 | ALDS | 9.00 | 1.67 | 4.00 | 6.00 | 11 |
| 1996 | 33 | David Cone | New York Yankees | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | WS | 1.50 | 1.33 | 0.75 | 6.00 | 11 |
| 1998 | 27 | Chad Ogea | Cleveland Indians | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6.7 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 | ALCS | 8.10 | 2.10 | 0.80 | 3.33 | 9 |
| 1999 | 31 | Ramon Martinez | Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5.7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | ALDS | 3.18 | 1.41 | 2.00 | 5.67 | 4 |
| 1999 | 31 | Ramon Martinez | Boston Red Sox | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6.7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | ALCS | 4.05 | 1.35 | 1.67 | 6.67 | 4 |
| 2004 | 26 | Brandon Backe | Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12.7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 10 | NLCS | 2.84 | 0.79 | 2.50 | 6.33 | 9 |
| 2004 | 26 | Brandon Backe | Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | NLDS | 3.00 | 1.17 | 2.50 | 6.00 | 9 |
| 2006 | 24 | Hong-Chih Kuo | Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | NLDS | 4.15 | 1.38 | 2.00 | 4.33 | 5 |
| 2006 | 24 | Rich Harden | Oakland Athletics | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5.7 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | ALCS | 4.76 | 1.76 | 0.80 | 5.67 | 9 |
| 48 | 27 | Overall | 13 | 26 | 76 | 56 | 373.0 | 369 | 158 | 148 | 211 | 3.81 | 1.39 | 1.43 | 4.91 | 7 |
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