Now, let's look at the players elected by the baseball writers. How did they fare in the years prior to induction? Note, first-ballot electees will not appear in the list:

Inducted	voted by	Name	Low	High	Retired
1937	BBWAA	Cy Young	49.12%	49.12%	1911
1937	BBWAA	Nap Lajoie	64.60%	64.60%	1916
1937	BBWAA	Tris Speaker	58.85%	58.85%	1928
1938	BBWAA	Pete Alexander	24.34%	62.19%	1930
1939	BBWAA	Eddie Collins	26.55%	66.79%	1930
1939	BBWAA	George Sisler	34.07%	68.32%	1930
1939	BBWAA	Willie Keeler	17.70%	67.56%	1910
1942	BBWAA	Rogers Hornsby	17.56%	64.23%	1937
1947	BBWAA	Carl Hubbell	9.72%	38.40%	1943
1947	BBWAA	Frankie Frisch	6.19%	40.89%	1937
1947	BBWAA	Lefty Grove	5.31%	30.20%	1941
1947	BBWAA	Mickey Cochrane	10.22%	50.61%	1937
1948	BBWAA	Herb Pennock	7.46%	53.42%	1934
1948	BBWAA	Pie Traynor	1.15%	73.91%	1937
1949	Run Off	Charlie Gehringer	0.44%	66.67%	1942
1951	BBWAA	Jimmie Foxx	6.21%	61.31%	1945
1951	BBWAA	Mel Ott	61.44%	68.45%	1947
1952	BBWAA	Harry Heilmann	1.72%	67.70%	1932
1952	BBWAA	Paul Waner	1.52%	71.68%	1945
1953	BBWAA	Al Simmons	0.38%	60.26%	1944
1953	BBWAA	Dizzy Dean	0.44%	64.96%	1947
1954	BBWAA	Bill Dickey	6.88%	67.80%	1946
1954	BBWAA	Bill Terry	2.67%	72.35%	1936
1954	BBWAA	Rabbit Maranville	12.44%	62.12%	1935
1955	BBWAA	Dazzy Vance	0.38%	62.70%	1935
1955	BBWAA	Gabby Hartnett	0.44%	59.92%	1941
1955	BBWAA	Joe DiMaggio	0.40%	69.44%	1951
1955	BBWAA	Ted Lyons	1.14%	67.46%	1946
1956	BBWAA	Hank Greenberg	1.21%	62.55%	1947
1956	BBWAA	Joe Cronin	3.73%	53.78%	1945
1964	Run Off	Luke Appling	0.76%	70.65%	1950
1967	Run Off	Red Ruffing	2.14%	81.78%	1947
1968	BBWAA	Joe Medwick	0.83%	81.05%	1948
1969	BBWAA	Roy Campanella	55.56%	72.44%	1957
1970	BBWAA	Lou Boudreau	1.04%	64.12%	1952
1972	BBWAA	Early Wynn	27.94%	66.67%	1963
1972	BBWAA	Yogi Berra	67.22%	67.22%	1965
1973	BBWAA	Warren Spahn	0.38%	0.38%	1965
1974	BBWAA	Whitey Ford	67.11%	67.11%	1967
1975	BBWAA	Ralph Kiner	1.33%	61.84%	1955
1976	BBWAA	Bob Lemon	1.33%	64.36%	1958
1976	BBWAA	Robin Roberts	56.05%	72.65%	1966
1978	BBWAA	Eddie Mathews	32.33%	62.40%	1968
1980	BBWAA	Duke Snider	17.00%	71.30%	1964
1983	BBWAA	Juan Marichal	58.10%	73.49%	1975
1984	BBWAA	Don Drysdale	20.99%	64.71%	1969
1984	BBWAA	Harmon Killebrew	59.28%	71.93%	1975
1984	BBWAA	Luis Aparicio	11.97%	67.38%	1973
1985	BBWAA	Hoyt Wilhelm	38.89%	71.96%	1972
1987	BBWAA	Billy Williams	23.37%	74.12%	1976
1987	BBWAA	Catfish Hunter	53.67%	68.00%	1979
1991	BBWAA	Fergie Jenkins	52.35%	66.67%	1983
1991	BBWAA	Gaylord Perry	68.01%	72.07%	1983
1992	BBWAA	Rollie Fingers	65.69%	65.69%	1985
1997	BBWAA	Phil Niekro	60.00%	68.30%	1987
1998	BBWAA	Don Sutton	56.92%	73.15%	1988
2000	BBWAA	Carlton Fisk	66.40%	66.40%	1993
2000	BBWAA	Tony Perez	50.00%	67.86%	1986
2003	BBWAA	Gary Carter	33.80%	72.67%	1992
Avg (>0)			25.17%	64.01%

Well, they did have more support from the writers prior to their election, but then again it is the same body, the baseball writers, throughout. Note that the players elected from the Eighties on have gotten a great deal of support throughout their tenure on the writers' ballot as opposed to the ones that were inducted in the Fifties and Sixties.

Now let's look at the progress by decade:

Decade	Count	Low	High
1910s	3	43.81%	60.42%
1920s	1	58.85%	58.85%
1930s	12	12.06%	62.10%
1940s	15	6.79%	62.42%
1950s	6	10.07%	67.14%
1960s	8	36.13%	59.05%
1970s	6	40.88%	71.15%
1980s	6	58.83%	68.96%
1990s	2	50.10%	69.53%
Total	59	25.17%	64.01%

It seems like there was an abrupt change in the way that players got elected in the Seventies.

Now, let's look at the progression of the writers' choices over the course of their eligibility (note that these numbers include the tallies that did indeed get the players inducted):

Eligibility	#	Avg PCT
1st yr	97	65.70%
2nd yr	40	48.29%
3rd yr	39	43.81%
4th yr	32	45.34%
5th yr	22	46.46%
6th yr	20	46.00%
7th yr	18	41.07%
8th yr	11	46.95%
9th yr	16	40.80%
10th yr	24	35.53%
11th yr	28	35.22%
12th yr	21	51.63%
13th yr	16	41.34%
14th yr	18	45.55%
15th yr	10	50.60%
16th yr	11	63.19%
17th yr	8	55.36%
18th yr	6	67.67%
19th yr	6	70.24%
20th yr	4	78.25%
21st yr	1	84.81%

You'll note that players get the most support when they are new to the ballot or when their eligibility is about to expire (from the 16th year on, depending on the various eligibility cutoffs of the past).

Now let's take a look at the same progression for those players who have not gained admission to the hallowed halls of Cooperstown (Note, this includes the 2003 veterans voting, basically everything after the 30th year):

Eligibility	#	Avg PCT
1st yr	721	1.74%
2nd yr	170	4.92%
3rd yr	161	4.85%
4th yr	88	7.70%
5th yr	84	7.82%
6th yr	68	8.58%
7th yr	69	9.01%
8th yr	61	10.02%
9th yr	96	7.36%
10th yr	57	9.40%
11th yr	85	8.22%
12th yr	60	10.34%
13th yr	80	8.67%
14th yr	60	10.98%
15th yr	55	11.28%
16th yr	26	8.22%
17th yr	27	8.68%
18th yr	28	8.83%
19th yr	25	12.41%
20th yr	15	8.26%
21st yr	7	11.80%
22nd yr	12	12.65%
23rd yr	8	10.52%
24th yr	13	12.66%
25th yr	4	18.39%
26th yr	4	23.80%
27th yr	3	17.97%
28th yr	1	13.19%
29th yr	2	15.67%
30th yr	4	13.58%
31st yr	1	14.69%
35th yr	2	40.74%
37th yr	1	4.94%
38th yr	1	13.58%
46th yr	1	19.75%
48th yr	3	16.87%
56th yr	1	14.81%
59th yr	1	23.46%
67th yr	1	7.41%

Boy, they drop like flies after the first couple of years of eligibility, eh? The ones that stick around do get more support as time goes on.

One thing to keep in mind is that the rule to drop those players who don't receive five percent from the writers' ballot is relatively new. Even players who got elected to the Hall have years under 5% as well as years in which they are omitted altogether from the writers' ballot. If the to the 5% rule had been in effect throughout the voting, twenty Hall of Famers elected by the writers would have been dropped from the ballot. They are: Al Simmons, Dazzy Vance, Joe DiMaggio, Charlie Gehringer, Dizzy Dean, Gabby Hartnett, Luke Appling, Joe Medwick, Lou Boudreau, Ted Lyons, Pie Traynor, Hank Greenberg, Ralph Kiner, Bob Lemon, Paul Waner, Harry Heilmann, Red Ruffing, Bill Terry, Joe Cronin, and Warren Spahn, who received one vote while still active. Of the vets' selections, only 15 of 94 would have passed the 5% rule strictures. Of course, given the number of high quality players eligible in the early voting, the 5% rule would not have made sense initially. But it does illustrate that the writers' ballot is much less forgiving for modern players.

Next, let's use Win Shares to evaluate past elections. First, we need to establish that a) Win Shares is a credible tool for this type of research and b) what is the rule of thumb as far as Win Shares for Hall of Famers? Is there a cutoff by which we can evaluate past elections? Let's see:

Here is table of various career Win Share ranges with the number of eligible players as well as Hall-inducted players in the range. That is also represented as a percentage of eligible players inducted with the difference in percentage from one range to the next. Note that the ranges end at 150 since no one with fewer than 150 career Win Shares has ever been elected to the Hall (Tommy McCarthy, 170, is the lowest). Also, Hall-of-Famer Addie Joss (191 career Win Shares) is not included in this table since he technically is ineligible for the Hall having played only 9 seasons:

Win Shares	Inducted	Eligible	%	Diff
700+	2	2	100.00%
650-699	1	1	100.00%	0.00%
600-649	5	5	100.00%	0.00%
550-599	4	4	100.00%	0.00%
500-549	4	5	80.00%	-20.00%
450-499	7	7	100.00%	20.00%
400-449	16	16	100.00%	0.00%
350-399	35	41	85.37%	-14.63%
300-349	38	70	54.29%	-31.08%
250-299	41	121	33.88%	-20.40%
200-249	28	199	14.07%	-19.81%
150-199	9	199	4.52%	-9.55%
	190	670	28.36%

I would say that career Win Shares is a pretty good predictor of Hall of Famers. 39 of the 40 "eligible" players over 400 career WS are in the Hall. (The one person who is eligible in terms of eligibility years but is not in the Hall is Pete Rose, 547 WS, but he's ineligible for some other reason that escapes me just now. There are also four players who have not yet been eligible for the writers' ballot, but should be no-brainers: Ripken, Bonds, Henderson, and Molitor.)

For each range from 400 career Win Shares down to 150, the percent of Hall of Famers drops by about 20% per rung until it's zero for those under 150. There are six eligible players in the 350-399 range who have not yet been elected (Tony Mullane, 399; Bill Dahlen, 394; Darrell Evans, 363; Rusty Staub, 358; Sherry Magee, 354; and Lou Whitaker, 351), though s few may still go in. (Gwynn, Boggs, Raines, and Clemens are also in this range but are not yet eligble.)

The next group (300-349) seems to be where voters become uncertain about the player's Hall worthiness and is therefore, the source of most of the Hall voting controversy. Only slightly 50% of the eligible players in this group have ended up getting elected, though many are still active on the writers' ballot. Players of note are Ryne Sandberg, Dick Allen, Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Dave Parker, Ron Santo, Alan Trammell, Joe Torre, Ted Simmons, Willie Randolph, Keith Hernandez, Dwight Evans, and Bobby Grich. Though there are an odd George Van Haltren or Tommy Leach thrown in, most of the players not in the Hall from this range are from the Sixties until the present. They best represent the chasm between what had previously been the de facto standard for a Hall of Famer and what is the standard today.

From 300 Win Shares down, Hall voters get extremely picky. I think that Win Shares does represent a reasonable means to evaluate Hall voting and that 300 Win Shares can be used as an historic threshold for that evaluation. Sure, there are plenty of qualified players with fewer than 300 Win Shares—Sandy Koufax merits just 194 for his career. However, almost all of the controversial selections are below 300 Win Shares. Koufax is and should be the exception rather than the rule. His truly was an exceptional career.

To further illustrate this point, here is a table of the average career Win Shares for each election class and the cumulative average as of that election year:

Inducted	#	Avg WS	Grand #	Avg WS	Change
1936	5	623.80	5	623.80
1937	3	586.67	8	609.88	-13.93
1938	1	476.00	9	595.00	-14.88
1939	7	385.86	16	503.50	-91.50
1942	1	502.00	17	503.41	-0.09
1945	9	300.78	26	433.27	-70.14
1946	10	266.60	36	386.97	-46.30
1947	4	334.25	40	381.70	-5.27
1948	2	257.00	42	375.76	-5.94
1949	3	385.67	45	376.42	0.66
1951	2	481.50	47	380.89	4.47
1952	2	389.50	49	381.24	0.35
1953	4	283.00	53	373.83	-7.41
1954	3	298.00	56	369.77	-4.06
1955	6	292.83	62	362.32	-7.45
1956	2	300.00	64	360.38	-1.95
1957	1	446.00	65	361.69	1.32
1959	1	380.00	66	361.97	0.28
1961	2	344.00	68	361.44	-0.53
1962	3	287.67	71	358.32	-3.12
1963	4	332.25	75	356.93	-1.39
1964	6	343.83	81	355.96	-0.97
1965	1	403.00	82	356.54	0.57
1966	1	555.00	83	358.93	2.39
1967	2	283.50	85	357.15	-1.77
1968	3	319.67	88	355.88	-1.28
1969	4	329.50	92	354.73	-1.15
1970	3	237.00	95	351.01	-3.72
1971	6	267.83	101	346.07	-4.94
1972	5	253.80	106	341.72	-4.35
1973	4	334.00	110	341.44	-0.28
1974	4	330.00	114	341.04	-0.40
1975	3	273.33	117	339.30	-1.74
1976	4	281.75	121	337.40	-1.90
1977	3	300.67	124	336.51	-0.89
1978	2	320.50	126	336.25	-0.25
1979	2	433.00	128	337.77	1.51
1980	3	344.33	131	337.92	0.15
1981	2	327.50	133	337.76	-0.16
1982	3	457.67	136	340.40	2.65
1983	3	282.67	139	339.16	-1.25
1984	5	289.00	144	337.42	-1.74
1985	4	320.75	148	336.97	-0.45
1986	3	302.33	151	336.28	-0.69
1987	2	290.00	153	335.67	-0.60
1988	1	370.00	154	335.90	0.22
1989	3	368.67	157	336.52	0.63
1990	2	412.00	159	337.47	0.95
1991	4	332.00	163	337.34	-0.13
1992	3	280.00	166	336.30	-1.04
1993	1	444.00	167	336.95	0.64
1994	2	298.50	169	336.49	-0.45
1995	3	363.00	172	336.95	0.46
1996	1	257.00	173	336.49	-0.46
1997	2	339.00	175	336.52	0.03
1998	3	328.33	178	336.38	-0.14
1999	4	374.75	182	337.23	0.84
2000	3	340.67	185	337.28	0.06
2001	3	305.00	188	336.77	-0.52
2002	1	325.00	189	336.70	-0.06
2003	2	387.00	191	337.23	0.53

The average Hall of Famer is in the mid-330 Win Share range. Within ten years of the Hall's founding, the average Hall of Famer was very quickly approaching that figure (386.97 average as of 1946). The average Hall of Famer had been over 500 Win Shares until 1942. If that were the "standard" today there would be just 19 men in the Hall. If it fell to 400, then there would be just 44 men in the Hall. The change came as what was a Hall of Famer was evolving. With the veterans' voluminous and highly questionable selections in the Forties, especially given the number of exceptional candidates still having to pay for their admission to the Hall, the career Win Share average for the Hall fell quickly. Unfortunately, instead of merely broadening the concept of a Hall of Famer to encompass a larger group (as of 2001 there were 172 players with at least 300 Win Shares), the vets haphazardly selected players, passing up many more deserving in the process. We are still dealing with their mess today. Using 300 Win Shares as out standard, let's look at how men meeting this cutoff have fared in the voted historically. Here's a table of the percentage of eligible players who would be eventually inducted in the Hall as of the end of each decade as well as today and the first vote year, 1936.

Year	Inducted	Eligible	%
1936	42	50	84.00%
1940	46	54	85.19%
1950	60	70	85.71%
1960	63	73	86.30%
1970	70	80	87.50%
1980	81	93	87.10%
1990	96	116	82.76%
2000	109	144	75.69%
2003	112	151	74.17%

Note that 300 Win Shares have been a good predictor for Hall-inducted since the outset, about 85-87%. A few early players have been ignored (witness the 84%). The accuracy of the voting for 300+ candidates was improving until the early Eighties and since then the dropoff has been severe. Though more recent numbers are the most likely to change as new players are selected, at least 17 eligible players would have to be selected before the inducted percent for 300+ Win Share players got back above 85%.

To be continued…

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