Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Man, I never thought they could do it until Harry the K announced that the Mets were down by four runs and then Jimmy Rollins manufactured a run out of a single, two stolen bases, and fair-to-middling line drive so-called sac fly.
I stay say that Rollins was incorrect in spring training when he said that the Phils were the team to beat in the NL East. The Mets were the team to beat, and both the Phillies and Mets did that aplenty in the last three weeks.
Even an old curmudgeon like me who picked the Phils to win 75 games had to be touched by the way they won this game and how the team responded to the fans. It was an electric feeling that comesunfortunately for the Philsevery decade or so.
I am left with the images of the typically stoic Pat Burrell leading the charge on the field as the celebration started, of the players making the rounds well after the game high-fiving and spraying fans with beer/champagne/fire hoses/whatever they could get their hands on, of Rollins turning up the speed to nab his record-setting triplebaseball's fourth quad-20 playeramid cheers of MVP! MVP! MVP! I am not Rollins' biggest fan, but I have no problem with him winning the award. Call me a homer.
How far can this team go? As an NL fan, I would be pulling for these guys since they'll be the best matchup for whichever Goliath escapes from the ALCS. I could also see their pitching collapse and their getting swept out in the first round.
But it doesn't matter
Screw 1964! I wasn't even born, neither were most of the players (sorry, Jamie Moyer). It can now be considered officially buried.
What these Phils accomplished, with an assist from the floundering Mets, was astounding and historic. No team had ever come back from seven games back on September 12 until these Phils. From that point on the team went 13-4 while the Mets went 5-12. They swept series with the Mets three times and finished with an eight-game win streak vs. their rivals.
Was it the worst collapse ever? Let's see
I looked at the daily standings all time and I selected the teams that a) lead their division or league by at least five games and b) lost that lead by the season's end. Then I looked at the worst "Collapse Ratio". That is, their games remaining (prorated to 162 games) divided by their games ahead on the given date.
Guess which two teams came in one and two? It's no surprise, but the order may be (and I know people had large tables but give me a breakmy team finally won something):
Yr | Lg | Div | Losing Team | POS | Winner | Date | TOT G | G# | G Left | G Ahead | Collapse |
1964 | NL | Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 19640920 | 162 | 150 | 12 | 6.5 | 1.85 | |
2007 | NL | E | New York Mets | 2 | Philadelphia Phillies | 20070912 | 162 | 145 | 17 | 7.0 | 2.43 |
1934 | NL | New York Giants | 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 19340914 | 153 | 139 | 14 | 5.5 | 2.70 | |
1891 | NL | Chicago Colts | 2 | Boston Beaneaters | 18910915 | 137 | 121 | 16 | 6.5 | 2.91 | |
1995 | AL | W | California Angels | 2 | Seattle Mariners | 19950912 | 145 | 128 | 17 | 6.0 | 3.17 |
1951 | NL | Brooklyn Dodgers | 2 | New York Giants | 19510914 | 158 | 138 | 20 | 6.0 | 3.42 | |
2006 | AL | C | Detroit Tigers | 2 | Minnesota Twins | 20060907 | 162 | 141 | 21 | 5.0 | 4.20 |
1938 | NL | Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | Chicago Cubs | 19380904 | 152 | 126 | 26 | 6.5 | 4.26 | |
1978 | AL | E | Boston Red Sox | 2 | New York Yankees | 19780829 | 163 | 130 | 33 | 7.5 | 4.37 |
1942 | NL | Brooklyn Dodgers | 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 19420815 | 155 | 112 | 43 | 9.5 | 4.73 | |
1969 | NL | E | Chicago Cubs | 2 | New York Mets | 19690816 | 163 | 119 | 44 | 9.0 | 4.86 |
1993 | NL | W | San Francisco Giants | 2 | Atlanta Braves | 19930822 | 162 | 124 | 38 | 7.5 | 5.07 |
1930 | NL | Chicago Cubs | 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 19300830 | 156 | 129 | 27 | 5.5 | 5.10 | |
1921 | NL | Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | New York Giants | 19210823 | 154 | 117 | 37 | 7.5 | 5.19 | |
1974 | AL | E | Boston Red Sox | 3 | Baltimore Orioles | 19740823 | 162 | 124 | 38 | 7.0 | 5.43 |
2000 | AL | W | Seattle Mariners | 2 | Oakland Athletics | 20000811 | 162 | 116 | 46 | 7.0 | 6.57 |
1984 | AL | W | Minnesota Twins | 3 | Kansas City Royals | 19840822 | 162 | 125 | 37 | 5.5 | 6.73 |
1983 | NL | W | Atlanta Braves | 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 19830813 | 162 | 117 | 45 | 6.5 | 6.92 |
1940 | AL | Cleveland Indians | 2 | Detroit Tigers | 19400821 | 155 | 117 | 38 | 5.5 | 7.22 | |
1979 | NL | W | Houston Astros | 2 | Cincinnati Reds | 19790704 | 162 | 83 | 79 | 10.5 | 7.52 |
1927 | NL | Chicago Cubs | 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 19270816 | 153 | 109 | 44 | 6.0 | 7.76 | |
1973 | NL | W | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | Cincinnati Reds | 19730717 | 162 | 95 | 67 | 8.5 | 7.88 |
2003 | AL | W | Seattle Mariners | 2 | Oakland Athletics | 20030815 | 162 | 122 | 40 | 5.0 | 8.00 |
1937 | NL | Chicago Cubs | 2 | New York Giants | 19370813 | 154 | 103 | 51 | 6.5 | 8.25 | |
1873 | NA | Philadelphia Whites | 2 | Boston Red Stockings | 18730716 | 53 | 30 | 23 | 8.5 | 8.27 | |
1962 | NL | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | San Francisco Giants | 19620809 | 165 | 116 | 49 | 5.5 | 8.75 | |
2005 | AL | E | Boston Red Sox | 2 | New York Yankees | 20050810 | 162 | 113 | 49 | 5.5 | 8.91 |
1989 | AL | E | Baltimore Orioles | 2 | Toronto Blue Jays | 19890720 | 162 | 93 | 69 | 7.5 | 9.20 |
2003 | AL | C | Kansas City Royals | 3 | Minnesota Twins | 20030717 | 162 | 93 | 69 | 7.5 | 9.20 |
1914 | NL | New York Giants | 2 | Boston Braves | 19140812 | 156 | 98 | 58 | 6.5 | 9.27 | |
1973 | NL | E | St. Louis Cardinals | 2 | New York Mets | 19730807 | 162 | 113 | 49 | 5.0 | 9.80 |
1973 | NL | E | Chicago Cubs | 5 | New York Mets | 19730629 | 161 | 78 | 83 | 8.5 | 9.83 |
1932 | NL | Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | Chicago Cubs | 19320729 | 154 | 97 | 57 | 6.0 | 9.99 | |
1935 | NL | New York Giants | 3 | Chicago Cubs | 19350704 | 156 | 69 | 87 | 9.0 | 10.04 | |
1896 | NL | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | Baltimore Orioles | 18960728 | 128 | 87 | 41 | 5.0 | 10.38 | |
1985 | AL | W | California Angels | 2 | Kansas City Royals | 19850724 | 162 | 94 | 68 | 6.5 | 10.46 |
1977 | NL | E | Chicago Cubs | 4 | Philadelphia Phillies | 19770629 | 162 | 70 | 92 | 8.5 | 10.82 |
1991 | NL | W | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | Atlanta Braves | 19910728 | 162 | 97 | 65 | 6.0 | 10.83 |
1977 | AL | W | Chicago White Sox | 3 | Kansas City Royals | 19770731 | 162 | 100 | 62 | 5.5 | 11.27 |
1898 | NL | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | Boston Beaneaters | 18980807 | 157 | 99 | 58 | 5.0 | 11.97 | |
1879 | NL | Chicago White Stockings | 4 | Providence Grays | 18790802 | 83 | 49 | 34 | 5.5 | 12.07 | |
1946 | NL | Brooklyn Dodgers | 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 19460702 | 157 | 68 | 89 | 7.5 | 12.24 | |
1894 | NL | Boston Beaneaters | 3 | Baltimore Orioles | 18940730 | 133 | 81 | 52 | 5.0 | 12.67 | |
1956 | NL | Milwaukee Braves | 2 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 19560726 | 155 | 88 | 67 | 5.5 | 12.73 | |
1994 | AL | C | Cleveland Indians | 2 | Chicago White Sox | 19940622 | 113 | 68 | 45 | 5.0 | 12.90 |
1979 | NL | E | Montreal Expos | 2 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 19790706 | 160 | 75 | 85 | 6.5 | 13.24 |
1889 | AA | St. Louis Browns | 2 | Brooklyn Bridegrooms | 18890720 | 141 | 77 | 64 | 5.5 | 13.37 | |
1911 | AL | Detroit Tigers | 2 | Philadelphia Athletics | 19110720 | 154 | 84 | 70 | 5.5 | 13.39 | |
1992 | NL | W | Cincinnati Reds | 2 | Atlanta Braves | 19920707 | 162 | 81 | 81 | 6.0 | 13.50 |
2001 | NL | E | Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | Atlanta Braves | 20010601 | 162 | 53 | 109 | 8.0 | 13.63 |
So now the Phils division/league winner with the fewest days in first in a non-strike year since 1871. Actually, the tieit's kizmitthe '64 Cardinals:
Yr | Lg | Tm | # Days | First | Last | W | L | PCT | Won Div? | Won Lg? | Won WS? | POS | GB | GA |
1981 | AL | Kansas City Royals | 1 | 19810408 | 19810408 | 50 | 53 | .485 | Y | N | N | 4 | 11 | 0 |
1871 | NA | Philadelphia Athletics | 3 | 18710704 | 18711030 | 21 | 7 | .750 | Y | 1 | 0 | 2 | ||
2007 | NL | Philadelphia Phillies | 6 | 20070926 | 20071001 | 89 | 73 | .549 | Y | ? | ? | 1 | 0 | 1 |
1964 | NL | St. Louis Cardinals | 6 | 19640929 | 19641004 | 93 | 69 | .574 | Y | Y | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
1951 | NL | New York Giants | 7 | 19510417 | 19511003 | 98 | 59 | .624 | Y | N | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
1938 | NL | Chicago Cubs | 11 | 19380418 | 19381002 | 89 | 63 | .586 | Y | N | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
1934 | NL | St. Louis Cardinals | 12 | 19340417 | 19340930 | 95 | 58 | .621 | Y | Y | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
1981 | AL | Milwaukee Brewers | 13 | 19810408 | 19811005 | 62 | 47 | .569 | Y | N | N | 1 | 0 | 1 |
1981 | NL | Philadelphia Phillies | 13 | 19810408 | 19810811 | 59 | 48 | .551 | Y | N | N | 3 | 2.5 | 0 |
1959 | NL | Los Angeles Dodgers | 14 | 19590426 | 19590929 | 88 | 68 | .564 | Y | Y | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
1942 | NL | St. Louis Cardinals | 16 | 19420912 | 19420927 | 106 | 48 | .688 | Y | Y | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
1935 | NL | Chicago Cubs | 17 | 19350416 | 19350929 | 100 | 54 | .649 | Y | N | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
1981 | NL | Montreal Expos | 17 | 19810408 | 19810507 | 60 | 48 | .556 | Y | N | N | 2 | 2 | 0 |
1956 | NL | Brooklyn Dodgers | 18 | 19560423 | 19560930 | 93 | 61 | .604 | Y | N | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
1967 | AL | Boston Red Sox | 18 | 19670412 | 19671001 | 92 | 70 | .568 | Y | N | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
1883 | NL | Boston Beaneaters | 19 | 18830904 | 18830930 | 63 | 35 | .643 | Y | 1 | 0 | 4 | ||
1973 | NL | New York Mets | 20 | 19730405 | 19731001 | 82 | 79 | .509 | Y | Y | N | 1 | 0 | 1.5 |
Oh and by the way, those Cardinals won the World Series. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more, say no more.
In table 1, it would be interesting (but probably a bit of over-kill) to note how many games the two contending teams played against each other over the last X games, since each of those games would be a 2-game swing in the standings, and thus could be incorporated somehow into the "collapse factor".
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