It seldom happens that any felicity comes so pure as not to be tempered and allayed by some mixture of sorrow.

--Miguel "Miggy" de Cervantes

The O's owner Peter Angelos is again in the spending mood. Since getting burned on the Albert Belle signing in 1998, aside from an odd David Segui or Marty Cordova, Baltimore has shied away from big name signees. Well, not this year.

They signed Miguel Tejada the other day and are looking to snare Vladimir Guerrero and Pudge Rodriguez. The sad thing is that even with that much talent the Orioles may still be just the fourth best team in their own division. Well, at least they've abandoned the strategy of just employing sons of famous ballplayers (Gary Matthews Jr., Tim Raines Jr., Jerry Hairston Jr., and David Segui). Maybe they were just looking for the next Cal Ripken Jr.

Tejada will be a big upgrade from last year's starter, the execrable Deivi Cruz, and is in line with Baltimore's shortstop tradition from Hughie "Ee-yah" Jennings to Luis Apiricio to Mark Belanger to Cal "Don't Call Me Billy" Ripken. However, did the O's really need to give him six years and $72 M dollars?

Even if you believe the birth date proffered by Tejada, he will be 28 next season and 34 when the contract ends. Given that the contract is reportedly as back-ended as J-Lo after a chocolate binge, there is very little reason to believe that Tejada will be worth anywhere near that much when year six, the 2009 season, rolls around.

Rob Neyer argues that Tejada has been worth (in Win Shares) as much as Jeter and Garciaparra over the last three years. Well, that's all good an well, but a) that includes a career year for Tejada (in 2002, the only year his OPS+ was over 120, his slugging was over .480, and his OBP was over .350) and b) who's to say that Jeter and Garciaparra will be worth those deals by the time they end (assuming Nomah gets the money and contract length that have been bandied about by Neyer and others).

I would also argue that Garciaparra has been a better batter each of the last three years, including Tejada's MVP year, based on adjusted OPS. Tejada gets a big boost from defensive Win Shares, which are still somewhat speculative (ask Jimmy Rollins). Also, remember that Tejada salvaged his fine 2003 campaign with a big second half (.924 OPS) after a horrific start to the season (.725 OPS, .298 OBP, .245 batting average).

One could argue that Tejada's numbers even looked good in pitching-friendly Oakland. Take a look at his road stats and he looks A-Rod-ian: .304 batting average, .361 on-base percentage, .499 slugging, and .860 OPS over te last three seasons on the road. However, note that his homers dip on the road: 43 as opposed to 49 at home over the last three years (in 26 more at-bats).

Look, I think Tejada will have a fine season in 2004. He'll probably be a one of the better shortstops in the AL for the next few seasons.

However, to think he'll be worth $12+ M in 2009 seems an extremely poor gamble to me. The problem for me isn't not how he stacks up to Jeter and Garciaparra, but rather how he stacks up against Rich Aurilia, Vern Stephens, and Travis Fryman. Jeter and Garciaparra are on-base machines though they have punch as well. Tejada of the .331 OBP even with the fine pop is not really comparable to the "Big Three".

Tejada's most similar batters among shortstops are Rich Aurilia, John Valentin, Glenn Wright, Jose Hernandez, Alex Gonzalez, and Jose Valentin. Through age 27, the most similar are: Vern Stephens, Travis Fryman, Cal Ripken Jr., Rico Petrocelli, and Travis Jackson.

Of those, Aurilia has been sub-par (according to OPS+) since turning 29, John Valentin after turning 30, Wright after 30, Gonzalez since 26, Hernandez has been sub-par after age 28 except for a career year at 32. Stephens was about average after age 30 but lost significant playing time. Fryman move from short to third after age 25 and (aside from two fluke seasons at age 29 and 31) was not the same player. Ripken, though a sure first-ballot Hall of Famer, aside from a fluke season at age 38 (as a third baseman and playing only 85 games) was not the same player after turning 30. Petralli was washed up by 31 and had long been a third baseman by then. Jackson had a severe dropoff after age 27, though he did enjoy a fine season at age 31.

Jose Valentin is the odd-ball improving after age 30, but he also has played most of his time at third base as well.

Here is a list of all of the shortstops who have hit 20 homers, their age, and the on-base percentage. Note that only 15 of the 99 on the list are older than 30:

Now, maybe Tejada will play at a high level his entire career like Joe Cronin or will even improve as he ages like Eddie Joost. Of course, those guys had on-base percentages over .360, a number Tejada as yet to meet. I doubt Tajada and his .331 OBP will be competing at the baseball age of 34, no matter what his actual age really is.