The Phillies had the night off but that didn’t stop them from doing what they failed to do yesterday.  With the Padres and Mets both losing, the Phils are now tied for the wild card lead and are just twp games behind in the NL East race.

With that the Phils find themselves in possession of at least a share of a playoff spot for the first time in almost exactly a year.  Last September 25, they were tied for the wild card lead with the Dodgers, which they, of course, did not nab.

Since September 1, 2005, the team has spent a grand total of ten days in possession of a playoff spot but just one day in total in first place. Here are the last ten days that the Phillies either had sole or shared possession of a playoff spot:

You’ll notice that the one day in first was April 2, opening day last year. The last day that the Phillies were in first after April was July 22, 2004, when they were tied with the Braves with a 50-45 record.  You know how that one turned out.

If the Phillies had won yesterday, they would now be a game up in the wild card. The odds of a team in possession of a playoff spot on Sept. 24 retaining that spot are about 74%.  Only 24% of all teams a game on 9/24 back have ever come back:

Note that a third of the teams that were two game back on Sept. 24 ended up winning the playoff spot. So the division title is far from out of reach.  If the Mets had won tonight, the Phils would have been 2.5 games back, a deficit that just 8% of all teams have overcome this late in the year.

Now, given all this it is all the more perplexing why Charlie “I Need a Friggin’” Manuel pulled starter Cole Hamels after 76 pitches.  I remember Leo Mazzone saying once that there was no real difference between 75 and 100 or 110 pitches thrown in a game.  No one knows the magic number, but the amount of damage done by 75 pitches and 100 or so is largely negligible.

Let’s say Hamels, who had struck out 5 of his last 8, stayed in the game for an inning or two more.  The Phils then avoid brining in Antonio Alfonseca, who allowed two runs.  It seemed Manuel, who loves to go to the hot pitching arm, was overly impressed by the job the Phils pen had done overall since the 13-11 Cardinal debacle.  The Phils lost the game but Manuel was reportedly gratified that the tail-end of the bullpen was rested for the upcoming series.

When you have a day off the next day this late in a pennant race, every pitcher should be available.  And Hamels who will likely have one or two starts left this year, can rest in October, just as Phils pitchers have done for decades. How many games has this execrable manager cost the team throughout the year?  I wonder why they finish a few games out each year.

By  the way, the Yankees are also two behind in their division race after losing 4-1 to the Blue Jays.  If the Yanks win the division they will become just the second team to come back from 14 games back to win a division or league, the other being the 1914 Mircle Braves.  I think Torre was the catcher on that team.