Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Can the Phils just play the Mets everyday?
The Phils completed their third sweep of the Mets yesterday with a 10-6 induced by a Greg Dobbs-pinch hit grand slam in the sixth. The Phils are now 3-1/2 games behind the Mets for the NL East title and 1.5 behind San Diego in wild card with 13 games left to play. Whatever the Phils do, they are 12-6 for the season against the Mets.
But I do not know what to the think. After completing their last Mets sweep on August 30, they were two games out of first place and out of the wild card lead with a 71-62 record. Then the Phils went 6-7 in two series against the worst team in the NL (the Marlins), one against the floundering Braves, and another against the fourth-place Rockies. And then they sweep the Mets again!?!
I just don't get it. Is this team for real?
Sweeping an opponent three times in a season is not that rare. It had been done 343 times as of the end of the 2006 season (including series of at least . Three teams did it last year: Houston swept Pittsburgh three times, Boston swept Baltimore three times, and the A's swept the M's four times.
However, what the Phils did is somewhat rare. It is just the sixth time in baseball history that one of the top two teams in a division or league swept the other top two team three times over the course of a season. The last time it was done was 1996. The only other time the second-place team was within striking distance (five games) was in the historic 1951 Dodger-Giant pennant race:
| YR | Team | W | L | POS | OPP | W | L | POS | W | L | T | GB |
| 1996 | St. Louis Cardinals | 88 | 74 | 1 | Houston Astros | 82 | 80 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 1995 | Cleveland Indians | 100 | 44 | 1 | Kansas City Royals | 70 | 74 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| 1995 | Cincinnati Reds | 85 | 59 | 1 | Houston Astros | 76 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 1953 | Cleveland Indians | 92 | 62 | 2 | New York Yankees | 99 | 52 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -9 |
| 1951 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 97 | 60 | 2 | New York Giants | 98 | 59 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 1946 | Boston Red Sox | 104 | 50 | 1 | Detroit Tigers | 92 | 62 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
As for the Phils beating the Mets twelve times this year, there has only been one other second-place team (the '76 O's) that beat the first-place team more times (assuming the Mets hold on to win the division). Here are the most wins:
| YR | TEAM | W | L | POS | OPP | W | L | POS | Series W | Series L | Series T | G W | G L |
| 1976 | Baltimore Orioles | 88 | 74 | 2 | New York Yankees | 97 | 62 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 |
| 2003 | Seattle Mariners | 93 | 69 | 2 | Oakland Athletics | 96 | 66 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 |
| 1971 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 89 | 73 | 2 | San Francisco Giants | 90 | 72 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 6 |
| 2007 | Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | New York Mets | 12 | 6 | ||||||||
| 1991 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 93 | 69 | 2 | Atlanta Braves | 94 | 68 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| 1982 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 88 | 74 | 2 | Atlanta Braves | 89 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 |
| 1975 | Philadelphia Phillies | 86 | 76 | 2 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 92 | 69 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 |
| 1974 | St. Louis Cardinals | 86 | 75 | 2 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 88 | 74 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 |
| 2002 | San Francisco Giants | 95 | 66 | 2 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 98 | 64 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 8 |
| 1973 | Boston Red Sox | 89 | 73 | 2 | Baltimore Orioles | 97 | 65 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 7 |
| 2004 | Boston Red Sox | 98 | 64 | 2 | New York Yankees | 101 | 61 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 8 |
| 2006 | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | 89 | 73 | 2 | Oakland Athletics | 93 | 69 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 8 |
| 2006 | Detroit Tigers | 95 | 67 | 2 | Minnesota Twins | 96 | 66 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 8 |
So what does this mean for the Phillies? Remember that no team has ever come back to win its division/league after trailing by more than six games as late in the season as the Phils did. They Phils were 6-1/2 games back when their series with the Mets began (Sept. 13).
History is not in the Phils corner even after the sweep. Teams that were 3-1/2 games out of a playoff spot on September 17 have won that spot just 3% of the time (i.e., 1 out of 32). Teams 1-1/2 games from a playoff spot, as the Phils are in the wild card race, won just 18% of the time (4 out of 22). Overall any team not in possession of a playoff spot on September 17 but within six games of one have a 12% chance of getting it. No team trailing by more than six games on this date has come back to win a playoff spot.
Here are the breakdowns by games back (for league, division, and wild card races). Note the big dropoff after three games back:
| GB | Made POs | #Tms | % |
| 0 | 318 | 442 | 72% |
| 0.5 | 6 | 26 | 23% |
| 1 | 5 | 18 | 28% |
| 1.5 | 4 | 22 | 18% |
| 2 | 9 | 27 | 33% |
| 2.5 | 7 | 23 | 30% |
| 3 | 4 | 32 | 13% |
| 3.5 | 1 | 32 | 3% |
| 4 | 1 | 27 | 4% |
| 4.5 | 2 | 29 | 7% |
| 5 | 0 | 28 | 0% |
| 5.5 | 1 | 31 | 3% |
| 6 | 1 | 43 | 2% |
| 6.5 | 0 | 28 | 0% |
| 7 | 0 | 33 | 0% |
| 7.5 | 0 | 35 | 0% |
| 8 | 0 | 30 | 0% |
| 8.5 | 0 | 29 | 0% |
| 9 | 0 | 41 | 0% |
| 9.5 | 0 | 32 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 36 | 0% |
Things look bright with the team ace, Cole Hamels, ready to come off the DL and start in the upcoming Cards series, his first start in a month. But one still has to be realistic and admit that the Phils are still swimming upstream. History is not on their side.
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