Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Curtis Granderson stole his twentieth base yesterday to join the ultra-elite 20-20-20-20 club. This is not a club with members who are really devoted to Hugh Downs. It is a club of men who have hit 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 homers, and 20 stolen bases in one season, and Granderson is its third member.
Here is the 20-20-20-20 club:
Player | Yr | 2B | 3B | HR | SB |
Frank Schulte | 1911 | 30 | 21 | 21 | 23 |
Willie Mays | 1957 | 26 | 20 | 35 | 38 |
Curtis Granderson | 2007 | 36 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
Of course the sticking point for future members of the club is the 20 triples part. Since 1949, there have been just six 20-triple seasons. Oddly, two of those men are in the Quad-20 club:
Player | Yr | 3B |
Curtis Granderson | 2007 | 22 |
Cristian Guzman | 2000 | 20 |
Lance Johnson | 1996 | 21 |
Willie Wilson | 1985 | 21 |
George Brett | 1979 | 20 |
Willie Mays | 1957 | 20 |
Granderson actually has the most triples in a season since Dale Mitchell's 23 in 1949. He is just the 52nd man in baseball history to collect 22 or more triples in a season. Just 31 have more than 22. Granderson projects to 25 for the season. That would be the most since Hall of Famer Kiki Cuyler's 26 in 1925. Just 18 men have amassed 25 triples, and just 7 since 1900. The most ever collected were Chief Wilson's 36 in 1912.
The problem with making the Quad-20 club is that triples declined as home runs gained prominence (naturally) in the 1920s. In the 1910s, about two percent of all batters who qualified for the batting title (using today's rules) had 20 or more triples while just 0.33% hit 20 home runs. By the Thirties those numbers were reversed: almost three percentage of qualified batters hit 20 homers while 0.08% hit 20 triples. Also, the percentage of qualified batters collecting 20 stolen bases has dropped from 78% in the 1890s to over 4% in the 1930s to about 20% today.
The decade with the best odds of a player making the Quad-20 list was the 1920s as triples started "becoming" home runs. The expectations for the last two decades (2000s numbers through 2006) are next due to the sustained resurgence of the stolen bases, the glut of home runs and doubles, and the large number of players and teams.
Here's a quicky table with the number of qualifying player-seasons per decade for each of the Quad-20 legs. Note that overall the expectation is that 6 players would have made the club while just three have:
Decade | #Player Yrs | Qual Batters | 2B >= 20 | % | %Qual | 3B >= 20 | % | %Qual | HR >= 20 | % | %Qual | SB >= 20 | % | %Qual | Overall % | Ovarell %Qual | Exp |
1870s | 1099 | 598 | 27 | 2.46% | 4.52% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 6 | 0.55% | 1.00% | 0.0000000% | 0.0000000% | - |
1880s | 2987 | 966 | 348 | 11.65% | 36.02% | 10 | 0.33% | 1.04% | 5 | 0.17% | 0.52% | 359 | 12.02% | 37.16% | 0.0000078% | 0.0007174% | 0.01 |
1890s | 3085 | 834 | 435 | 14.10% | 52.16% | 38 | 1.23% | 4.56% | 1 | 0.03% | 0.12% | 647 | 20.97% | 77.58% | 0.0000118% | 0.0022106% | 0.02 |
1900s | 3845 | 834 | 415 | 10.79% | 49.76% | 13 | 0.34% | 1.56% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 516 | 13.42% | 61.87% | 0.0000000% | 0.0000000% | - |
1910s | 5687 | 916 | 536 | 9.43% | 58.52% | 20 | 0.35% | 2.18% | 3 | 0.05% | 0.33% | 541 | 9.51% | 59.06% | 0.0000017% | 0.0024713% | 0.02 |
1920s | 5080 | 860 | 862 | 16.97% | 100.23% | 16 | 0.31% | 1.86% | 67 | 1.32% | 7.79% | 117 | 2.30% | 13.60% | 0.0000162% | 0.0197649% | 0.17 |
1930s | 4921 | 873 | 976 | 19.83% | 111.80% | 4 | 0.08% | 0.46% | 141 | 2.87% | 16.15% | 39 | 0.79% | 4.47% | 0.0000037% | 0.0036960% | 0.03 |
1940s | 5437 | 816 | 744 | 13.68% | 91.18% | 5 | 0.09% | 0.61% | 125 | 2.30% | 15.32% | 45 | 0.83% | 5.51% | 0.0000024% | 0.0047196% | 0.04 |
1950s | 5564 | 789 | 655 | 11.77% | 83.02% | 1 | 0.02% | 0.13% | 296 | 5.32% | 37.52% | 49 | 0.88% | 6.21% | 0.0000010% | 0.0024514% | 0.02 |
1960s | 6951 | 962 | 738 | 10.62% | 76.72% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 375 | 5.39% | 38.98% | 126 | 1.81% | 13.10% | 0.0000000% | 0.0000000% | - |
1970s | 8548 | 1259 | 1058 | 12.38% | 84.03% | 1 | 0.01% | 0.08% | 410 | 4.80% | 32.57% | 349 | 4.08% | 27.72% | 0.0000028% | 0.0060255% | 0.08 |
1980s | 9475 | 1309 | 1224 | 12.92% | 93.51% | 1 | 0.01% | 0.08% | 462 | 4.88% | 35.29% | 464 | 4.90% | 35.45% | 0.0000033% | 0.0089368% | 0.12 |
1990s | 10958 | 1424 | 1532 | 13.98% | 107.58% | 1 | 0.01% | 0.07% | 638 | 5.82% | 44.80% | 437 | 3.99% | 30.69% | 0.0000030% | 0.0103877% | 0.15 |
2000s | 8624 | 1104 | 1402 | 16.26% | 126.99% | 1 | 0.01% | 0.09% | 621 | 7.20% | 56.25% | 234 | 2.71% | 21.20% | 0.0000037% | 0.0137145% | 0.15 |
Total | 82261 | 13544 | 10952 | 13.31% | 80.86% | 111 | 0.13% | 0.82% | 3144 | 3.82% | 23.21% | 3929 | 4.78% | 29.01% | 0.0000328% | 0.0446265% | 6.04 |
Meanwhile, Dontrelle Willis gave up seven runs through three innings to help the Phils hang in the wild card hunt. Willis fell to 8-15 with a 5.24 ERA. He potentially becomes a free agent this offseason and is now two years removed from his 22-10 Cy Young runner-up season. At 25, Willis could join a rather elite list soon.
Willis could become the 91st pitcher to win twenty games and be washed up by the age of thirty. Since 1920 there have been just seven men to accomplish this dubious feat. Ron Bryant was the last, having won 24 at age 25 in 1973 and finishing his career at age 27 in 1975. Denny McLain, 7-11's most famous former employee, is the previous man to do it.
Here are all the men since 1920 to do it:
Player | Last Yr | Age | W | L | PCT | ERA | Most W Yr | Age | W | L | PCT | ERA |
Ron Bryant | 1975 | 27 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 16.62 | 1973 | 25 | 24 | 12 | .667 | 3.53 |
Denny McLain | 1972 | 28 | 4 | 7 | .364 | 6.37 | 1968 | 24 | 31 | 6 | .838 | 1.96 |
Dave Boswell | 1971 | 26 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 4.66 | 1969 | 24 | 20 | 12 | .625 | 3.23 |
Sammy Ellis | 1969 | 28 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 5.83 | 1965 | 24 | 22 | 10 | .688 | 3.79 |
Herb Score | 1962 | 29 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 4.50 | 1956 | 23 | 20 | 9 | .690 | 2.53 |
Dave Ferriss | 1950 | 28 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 18.00 | 1946 | 24 | 25 | 6 | .806 | 3.25 |
Lefty Williams | 1920 | 27 | 22 | 14 | .611 | 3.91 | 1919 | 26 | 23 | 11 | .676 | 2.64 |
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