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Bleeding Dodger Blue
2007-08-15 10:02
by Mike Carminati

On July 27, the Dodgers were idle but were enjoying their second straight week in first place. They held a slim one-game lead over the surprising Diamondbacks, were one and a half ahead of the Padres, and 5.5 ahead of the Rockies. After two straight losses to the Rockies, on July 30 they still were tied for first with Arizona.

A little over two weeks later, Los Angeles is now in fourth place, six and a half games behind the D-Backs. They are 3-10 since July 30. Starting with the July 17 15-3 blowout against the Phils at home, they are 7-19.

I had to wonder how unique was the Dodgers fall, from first to fourth in less then two weeks. After the first-place tie on July 30 they first landed in fourth, six games back on August 12. They celebrated the descent with a 12-2 drubbing at the hands of the offensively poor Cards.

I ran the numbers and it's not as rare as your would think. Besides the Dodgers there have been 1058 teams that went from first to fourth within two weeks from July until the end of the season.

The most recent were the 2000 Rockies who went from first on July 3 with a 45- 33 (.577) record to fourth place with a 46-44 record on July 17, 14 days later. The last team to do it in under 14 days were the '93 Yankees who went from first (60-45, .571) on July 31 to fourth (62-50, .554) just seven days later. Earlier that year, the Orioles went from first to fourth in two games (52-42 on July 20 to 52-44 on July 22).

But when you factor in the six games back, the Dodgers' "feat" gets a bit rarer. There are just 98 instances of a team falling from first to at least fourth, at least 6 games behind the division/league leader from July through the end of the season. There are just 24 since 1900, and none since 1963. The Cards were the last going from 45-32 (.616), a half game ahead of the Dodgers on July 1, 1963 to 48-40, 6.5 behind the Dodgers and percentage points behind the third-place Cubs on July 13. The Cards ended up in second place, six games behind LA.

Here are the others since 1900:

YrTmDate1WLPCTPOSGDate2WLPCTGPOSNum DaysGB
1963SLN196307014532.584177196307134840.545884126.5
1963SLN196307014532.584177196307144941.544904137
1962CLE196207074734.580181196207204844.522924137.5
1962CLE196207074734.580181196207194843.527914126.5
1962CLE196207064634.575180196207194843.527914136.5
1950SLN195007245037.575187195008055445.545994126.5
1948BRO194809016954.5611123194809137263.5331355126
1948BRO194809016954.5611123194809127163.5301345116.5
1948BRO194808306852.5671120194809127163.5301345136.5
1930BRO193009158460.5831144193009288668.5581544136
1930BRO193009158460.5831144193009278568.5561534126
1930BRO193009158460.5831144193009268467.5561514116.5
1930BRO193009158460.5831144193009258467.5561514106
1930BRO193009148360.5801143193009278568.5561534136
1930BRO193009148360.5801143193009268467.5561514126.5
1930BRO193009148360.5801143193009258467.5561514116
1916NYA191607295340.570194191608115550.5241066136
1916NYA191607295340.570194191608105550.5241066126
1916NYA191607285338.582192191608105550.5241066136
1902SLA190208145139.567194190208275348.5251054136.5
1902SLA190208145139.567194190208265348.5251054127
1902SLA190208145139.567194190208255347.5301044116
1902SLA190208135139.567194190208265348.5251054137
1902SLA190208135139.567194190208255347.5301044126

As for as going from fourth to first within two weeks, the 2004 Braves were the last to do it. On July 6, Atlanta was in fourth place with a 42-41 record 2.5 games behind, of course, the Phils. After a 4-1 run, they found themselves tied for first nine days later, on July 15. That day was the first after the All-Star game and the Braves shut out the Expos, 8-0, behind Jaret Wright. Before that the ever yo-yoing 1993 Yankees were the last to do it.

Comments
2007-08-15 11:49:13
1.   underdog
This cursed, tortured month already makes me feel like crying. I don't need statistics to back that up! (Just kidding - sort of. Depressing but interesting.)
2007-08-15 14:23:39
2.   Curtis Lowe
This team doesn't suck it's the numbers that suck!

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