Big Unit Looms Large

Yesterday Randy Johnson threw a complete game with one run allowed against his former employers in Montreal. Everyone is saying that he is now back on track, but aside from three bad outings this year, I would be hard pressed to say that he has ever gotten derailed. Take a look:

           G   IP     H      R     ER    HR     BB     SO     GB     FB     PIT     BF    W-L  ERA
Total     24  172    144    60     53    20     50    215    210    135    2729    695   15-4  2.76
per game        7.17   6.00  2.50   2.21  0.83   2.08   8.96   8.75   5.63  113.71  28.96  
Good      21  155    121    40     33    14     39    193    189    120    2389    609   15-2  1.92
per game        7.38   5.76  1.90   1.57  0.67   1.86   9.19   9.00   5.71  113.76  29.00  
Bad        3   17     23    20     20     6     11     22     21     15     340     86    0-2 10.59
per game        5.67   7.67  6.67   6.67  2.00   3.67   7.33   7.00   5.00  113.33  28.67 

Note that his ERA is 5 times higher in his bad outings, his HRs are 3x higher, his walks are twice as high, but strikeouts only drop by 20%. All this with an inning and two thirds less per game (notice that the number of pitchers and batters faced is consistent throughout).

If Johnson had held form during those three bad outings, we would be discussing an historic season not just a great one.

David Pinto has a good analysis of Johnson's chances of reaching Nolan Ryan's strikeout record. I would like to try a different tact and marry Ryan's decline after 40 with Randy Johnson's recent numbers. I have to mull over a few things before it's ready (first attempts gave me whacky numbers like 400+ IP). I will work on it over the coming week. Add it to Upcoming Topics.