Javis and No La Tengos

It took a look at the standings and noticed something odd today. There are an unusually high number of teams headed for 100-win seasons and a goodly number destined for 100-loss seasons. Right now no one has done either-win 100 or lose 100-but with 14 to 17 games remaining, depending on the club, there is a good chance that many will. So I took the standings 10:18 PM tonight from ESPN online and I projected them out for 162 games. Here are the results sorted by wins rounded to the closest integer:

              Current     Projected
               W  L   PCT   W   L
NY Yankees    93 53 0.637 103  59
Atlanta       92 53 0.634 103  59
Anaheim       91 55 0.623 101  61
Oakland       91 55 0.623 101  61
Arizona       90 56 0.616 100  62
Seattle       84 62 0.575  93  69
St. Louis     84 62 0.575  93  69
Minnesota     85 63 0.574  93  69
Boston        83 62 0.572  93  69
Los Angeles   83 63 0.568  92  70
San Francisco 83 63 0.568  92  70
Houston       79 68 0.537  87  75
Chicago Sox   72 75 0.490  79  83
Florida       72 75 0.490  79  83
Cincinnati    72 75 0.490  79  83
Montreal      72 76 0.486  79  83
Philadelphia  72 76 0.486  79  83
NY Mets       70 77 0.476  77  85
Texas         69 77 0.473  77  85
Toronto       67 80 0.456  74  88
Colorado      67 80 0.456  74  88
Cleveland     66 81 0.449  73  89
Pittsburgh    65 82 0.442  72  90
Baltimore     64 81 0.441  72  90
Chicago Cubs  63 85 0.426  69  93
San Diego     62 85 0.422  68  94
Kansas City   56 91 0.381  62 100
Detroit       53 94 0.361  58 104
Milwaukee     51 95 0.349  57 105
Tampa Bay     48 99 0.327  53 109

That would project to five teams with 100 wins and four with 100 losses. If you take the best- (or worst-) case scenario for both, three other teams could win 100 (Seattle, Boston, and St. Louis) and one other (San Diego) could lose 100.

In the history of baseball, the most teams that have won 100 games in a one season is three, done twice (1942 and 1998). Two teams have won 100 in a season only 13 times. It's possible that the total number this year could almost treble the previous high.

As far as the 100-game losers, the record is also three in a season, done three times (1908, 1912, and 1962). Two teams losing 100 has been done 17 times, most recently 1993. Also, there has not been a 100-game loser in the majors since 1998.

Additionally, there are 12 teams that project to win 90 and one more that doesn't project to 90 but still could do it (Houston). On the flip side, there are 8 clubs that project to 90 losses, and another 10 that could possibly do it.

The highest number of teams to win 90 in a season is 9 (1999-1977 was the only year with 8). The highest 90-loss-team total in a season is 8 (1969, 1993, 1999, and 2001). Both of those highs could be surpassed.

There are 13 of 30 teams in total that project to a .500 or better win-percentage. The lowest total as a percentage of total teams is 33.33% (in the first year, 1871, of the National Association). The highest since 1901 is 35.71%. That would translate into 10 or 11 teams, which is a possibility for this year.

In 2000, there was no hundred-game winner or loser, and we were discussing parity. With the labor negotiations and the talk of a lack of competitive balance, that they may have engendered, this season brings us the largest distinction between the haves and have-nots. Well, you may say that expansion has effected these numbers. There is one team in the projected 100-game winners (Arizona) and one in the project 100-games losers (Tampa Bay) that are a product of recent expansion. Without them the numbers still point to an all-time high.

All of this indicates that more study on competitive balance and how it's changed over the years needs to be conducted. As a matter of fact, I have a study mapped out. All I have to do is run the numbers. I will endeavor to do so over the next week.