Schrodinger's Red Sox

The Red Sox split a doubleheader with the Indians yesterday to remain 1.5 games ahead of the idle New York Yankees for the AL East crown. First, Pedro Martinez won his 21st game of the year, 6-1, for the Red Sox to go up 2 games on the Yankees. And then the Sox lost to Cleveland rookie Brian Tallet, 7-1, to fall back to 1.5 games ahead.

On September 1, Boston was 3.5 games ahead of the Yankees (83-51 to 80-55) and then lost two of three to the Yankees to allow them to pull within 2.5. The Yankees have continued to chip away at the lead going 9-3 since the series.

The good news is that Boston now has 12 games remaining with the Tampa Bay, Chicago, Cleveland, and Baltimore. The bad news is the Yankees face an even lowlier group in Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Baltimore for their last 13 games. Though, it will be difficult for New York to make up the difference in the games remaining.

This could be an article in a parallel universe. The Red Sox are in actuality 9.5 games out and fading quickly in the AL East race. They also trail by 9 games in the wild card race. But things could very easily have been much different for the Sox. At the All-Star break the Red Sox trailed the Yankees by only 2 games (55-32 to 52-33). They are 1 game over .500 since while the Yankees have gone 39-23 since the break.

You could chalk it up to a little bad luck and a bad second half, but there is a little more going on than that. If you use Bill James' Pythagorean win-loss formula [winning percentage equals Runs scored ^1.83/( Runs scored ^1.83 + Runs against ^1.83)], you come out with a story similar to the one above. Here are the standings according to the formula followed by the actual:

First Half
      W- L  PCT GB   RF-RA   Actual Diff
Bos  54-31 .638  0  448 329   52-33 -2
NYY  55-32 .628  0  499 375   55-32  0

According to the formula the two teams should have been in a virtual tie at the All-Star break as opposed to a 2-game Yankee lead., but the Red Sox won two fewer games than expected.

Second Half
      W- L  PCT  GB  RF-RA   Actual Diff
Bos  38-27 .581   0 347-290   33-32 -5
NYY  35-27 .571 1.5 342-292   39-23 +4

The second-half difference is even more remarkable. Instead of surging ahead by 1.5 in the second half the Red Sox have dropped to 9.5 out. Of course, that difference is made up by the 5-game difference between expected and actual Red Sox wins and the 4-game difference between expected and actual in the Yankees' favor, for an 11-game swing.

Here's how the standings could look today if both teams had a win-loss record that more accurately reflected expectations:

As of 9/17
      W- L  PCT  GB  RF-RA   Actual Diff
Bos  92-58 .612   0 795-619   85-65 -7
NYY  90-59 .604 1.5 841-667   94-55 +4

The Yankees now face the D-Rays and will probably clinch before the series is up (magic number of 4) and will proceed to the playoffs for the eighth straight time with their usual aplomb. The Red Sox will go home this winter without a playoff appearance for the third straight year, re-evaluate their club, and undoubtedly make some changes (perhaps even at manager again). But it could very easily have been a much different season for both clubs.