Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Play Off?
Given the media attention that Barry Bonds postseason performance, both for his past shortcomings and his seeming rapid turnaround this year, I am left to think that the media have nothing better to write and/or talk about. Well, I know that I don't, but I'd rather discuss how offbase the discussion has been.
Bonds was neither struggling in the playoffs nor has he "turned it around". The problem is that we are discussing 97 at-bats spread over 11 years in the former and 17 at-bats in five games in the latter. In each case, there are too few at-bats in the sample to set a pattern. Yes, Bonds had fewer home runs and hits over the years, but if you take 100 random at-bats from various series through his career you could probably get worse numbers. OK, these are not your typical games-they are playoff games. But Bonds is only human: he has good games and bad games. Some of those bad games can happen during the playoffs.
To prove the point, I have taken the postseason performance of every major-leaguer to hit 400 or more home runs. I though about taking all Hall-of-Famers but then I reconsidered. These are generally top-caliber offensive players more readily comparable to Bonds and they are a smaller and easier group to deal with. It's not a perfect group but who of us is? They are in reverse order by OPS (on-base plus slugging):
Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SF SB BB SO HBP BA OBP SLUG OPS Ernie Banks (No playoff experience) Billy Williams 3 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 .000 .111 .000 .111 Dave Kingman 4 9 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 .111 .200 .111 .311 Andre Dawson 15 59 3 11 1 1 0 3 0 2 3 16 0 .186 .226 .237 .463 Sammy Sosa 3 11 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 .182 .250 .273 .523 Ted Williams 7 25 2 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 5 0 .200 .333 .200 .533 Darrell Evans 13 42 2 9 1 0 0 2 0 1 9 6 0 .214 .353 .238 .591 Dave Winfield 26 101 11 21 6 0 2 9 0 2 15 16 0 .208 .310 .327 .637 Willie Mays 25 89 12 22 5 0 1 10 0 3 10 12 0 .247 .323 .337 .660 Mark McGwire 42 129 13 28 2 0 5 14 0 0 18 33 0 .217 .313 .349 .662 Mike Schmidt 36 140 19 33 9 0 4 16 0 1 15 26 0 .236 .310 .386 .695 Barry Bonds 32 114 17 24 5 1 4 10 1 8 21 22 0 .211 .331 .377 .708 Jose Canseco 30 103 15 19 1 0 7 18 0 5 19 28 0 .184 .311 .398 .710 Stan Musial 23 86 9 22 7 1 1 8 0 1 12 4 0 .256 .347 .395 .742 Eddie Mathews 16 50 7 10 5 0 1 7 0 1 15 17 0 .200 .385 .360 .745 Rafael Palmeiro 22 82 13 20 5 0 4 8 0 0 6 22 0 .244 .295 .451 .747 Eddie Murray 44 159 21 41 3 1 9 25 0 3 27 27 0 .258 .366 .459 .825 Willie Stargell 36 133 18 37 10 0 7 20 0 0 17 34 0 .278 .360 .511 .871 Frank Robinson 35 126 25 30 5 1 10 19 0 0 20 32 0 .238 .342 .532 .874 Cal Ripken 28 107 14 37 10 0 1 8 0 0 12 22 0 .346 .412 .467 .879 Reggie Jackson 77 281 41 78 14 1 18 48 0 5 33 70 0 .278 .354 .527 .880 Mel Ott 16 61 8 18 2 0 4 10 0 0 8 9 0 .295 .377 .525 .901 Mickey Mantle 65 230 42 59 6 2 18 40 0 3 43 54 0 .257 .374 .535 .908 Fred McGriff 50 188 36 57 10 1 10 37 0 1 27 37 0 .303 .391 .527 .917 Duke Snider 36 133 21 38 8 0 11 26 0 1 13 33 0 .286 .349 .594 .943 Harmon Killebrew 13 40 6 10 1 0 3 6 0 0 14 10 0 .250 .444 .500 .944 Ken Griffey 15 59 11 18 2 0 6 11 0 5 7 10 0 .305 .379 .644 1.023 Jimmie Foxx 18 64 11 22 3 1 4 11 0 0 9 10 0 .344 .425 .609 1.034 Carl Yastrzemski 17 65 15 24 3 0 4 11 0 0 9 3 0 .369 .446 .600 1.046 Juan Gonzalez 15 62 11 18 4 0 8 15 0 0 4 15 0 .290 .333 .742 1.075 Willie McCovey 8 29 4 9 0 1 3 7 0 0 5 5 0 .310 .412 .690 1.101 Hank Aaron 17 69 11 25 4 1 6 16 0 0 5 13 0 .362 .405 .710 1.116 Lou Gehrig 34 119 30 43 8 3 10 35 0 0 26 17 0 .361 .476 .731 1.207 Babe Ruth 41 129 37 42 5 2 15 33 0 4 33 30 0 .326 .463 .744 1.207 Total 858 3085 483 830 145 16 176 483 1 49 460 638 0 .269 .364 .498 .861
Yes, Bonds is below average but not by a whole lot. Legends are at the top (well, bottom here) of the list: Aaron, Ruth, and Gehrig. But there are legends like Williams, Mays, and Schmidt who fare worse than Bonds. Ernie Banks never even got to play in a postseason game-damn Cubs.
It's going to be fun to watch Bonds play in the NLCS: the pitching approach that the Cardinals use against him, the shifts, etc. But enough already with the playoff performance questions. The press should find a new story and just let Bonds play. Maybe Ted Williams' kids will do us all a favor and start feuding again so that the Jim Grays of the world have a new story to cover.
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