"What's Wrong with Being a Sexagenarian? "

Felipe Alou is bitter. He says that baseball will "have white and young managers," and that, "[b]lacks and Latinos won't have many opportunities from now on." Oddly, he doesn't call it racism, "because we've already overcome that, but in the major leagues the trends are cyclical. They come and go." So, it's just a trend that Luis Pujols and Jerry Royster were fired (Royster by an African-American team prez) and that Pujols was replaced by lilly-white hometown boy and first-time manager Alan Trammell, while Willie Randolph and Chris Chambliss are left scrounging for coaching spots.

Rob Neyer had an interesting take on Alou:

Umm, you know he's listed as being 72 years old, right? I know he doesn't look that old, but the fact is that he might actually be older than 72. And there's not any historical precedent for a good manager in his middle 70s.

So is there precedent for managerial success in one's late sixties or even one's sixties? Among today's managers Joe Torre (62), Bobby Cox (61), and Jeff Torborg (60) all qualify for discounts at the movies; two of them-guess which-will probably go in the Hall of Fame as managers and won over 100 games each this year. By the end of next year, Jimmy Williams and Lou Piniella, two highly sought-after skippers, will join that group. Manager/genius/auteur (at least until this past postseason) Tony LaRussa will start riding the bus for free in 2004.

Let's look at the all-time record of managers who are card-carrying members of AARP. First, the 60 and over set:

Name Name          W     L  Pct
Eddie Popowski     1     0 1.000
Eddie Stanky       1     0 1.000
Joe McCarthy     223   145 .606
Burt Shotton     326   215 .603
Joe Torre        285   197 .591
Billy Martin      40    28 .588
Bobby Cox        189   133 .587
Fred Haney       178   132 .574
Walter Alston    549   411 .572
Steve O'Neill    269   207 .565
Chuck Dressen    380   313 .548
Red Schoendienst  13    11 .542
Casey Stengel   1227  1043 .541
Bucky Harris      82    72 .532
Joe Morgan       172   152 .531
Gene Mauch       257   229 .529
Ralph Houk       312   282 .525
Jack McKeon      328   302 .521
Tom Lasorda      744   721 .508
Leo Durocher     633   621 .505
Paul Owens        81    81 .500
Jimmy Dykes      245   247 .498
Herman Franks    238   241 .497
Wilbert Robinson 684   695 .496
Billy Gardner     62    64 .492
Dave Garcia      209   216 .492
Jeff Torborg      79    83 .488
Don Zimmer        18    19 .486
Tom Sheehan       46    50 .479
Roger Craig      232   254 .477
Connie Mack     2037  2266 .473
Dallas Green     183   205 .472
George Bamberger 142   171 .454
Al Lopez          29    35 .453
Felipe Alou      453   554 .450
Sparky Anderson  113   146 .436
Charlie Fox       17    22 .436
Bob Lemon         17    22 .436
Danny Ozark       24    32 .429
Bill McKechnie    64    86 .427
Red Corriden      52    72 .419
Paul Richards     64    97 .398
Bobby Mattick    104   164 .388
Jack Onslow       71   113 .386
Yogi Berra         6    10 .375
John McNamara     10    18 .357
Charlie Grimm      6    11 .353
Frank Lucchesi     8    17 .320
Del Baker          2     5 .286
Hans Lobert       42   109 .278
Billy Meyer       42   112 .273
Luke Appling      10    30 .250
Johnny Pesky       1     4 .200
Bobby Wallace      5    20 .200
               11599 11461 .503

Well, actually they are a bit better than average. There are some all-time greats in that list too, some of which were still successful (McCarthy, Alston, Stengel, Mauch, and Harris). However, there are also a number of successful managers who seemed to lose the winning touch in their sixties (Mack, Richards, and Anderson). Overall, there is enough success to say that there is no evidence to support Neyer's statements re. 60-year-olds.

Maybe, we should look at Alou contemporaries, the 65-and-above set:

Name               W    L  PCT
Burt Shotton     186  122 .604
Walter Alston     90   68 .570
Red Schoendienst  13   11 .542
Chuck Dressen    221  189 .539
Ralph Houk        86   76 .531
Jack McKeon      291  259 .529
Leo Durocher     311  296 .512
Wilbert Robinson 312  300 .510
Herman Franks     78   77 .503
Casey Stengel    734  769 .488
Tom Lasorda      321  337 .488
Jimmy Dykes       77   83 .481
Tom Sheehan       46   50 .479
Connie Mack     1661 1882 .469
Felipe Alou       88  127 .409
Paul Richards     64   97 .398
Bobby Mattick    104  164 .388
Del Baker          2    5 .286
                4685 4912 .488

Well, there is a dropoff past the age of 65 apparently. Although, Alston had one good year left in him, and Robinson and Durocher improved.

Let's take a look at a few more groups to see if the trend continues. First, 70-year-olds:

Name            W    L  PCT
Jack McKeon    85   77 .525
Connie Mack  1159 1621 .417
Casey Stengel 272  461 .371
             1516 2159 .413

Now, 75+:
Name W L PCT

Connie Mack  807 1216 .399
Casey Stengel 31   64 .326
             838 1280 .396

And finally 80 and above:

Name            W   L  PCT
Connie Mack   572 810 .414

Wow, they start dropping like flies, by winning percentage and by number of managers. Neyer just might have something there. I would say that there is evidence for managerial success in one's early sixties. In the late sixties, the winning percentages start to drop, and by 70, one is historically too old to manage.

Of course, with ballplayers and regular ol' folk taking better care of themselves, they have remained active longer. Perhaps in a few years we will see managers being successful into their 70s or even 80s.

Does this help Alou? Probably not. He is fast approaching the big 7-oh and has been out of the game for a year. He turned down the Boston gig for 2002, and that may have been his last offer. Perception has always held that Alou was and is a superior manager, but with the recent success in Montreal and with Alou's numbers (.450 winning percentage since turning 60), that perception may be changing. Besides, if racism is actually an issue in managerial hiring today, teams now have a number of ready-made excuses, including age, to ignore Alou.