Glavine-izing

Tom Glavine is the belle of the ball. He has three suitors and now must decide with whom he will dance next. The Mets seem the most dashing, offering $28.5 over the next three years. But diamonds alone are not a lefty's best friend. It seems that the young caller must also provide an additional year to win over the heart of our blushing Brave:

"I want to have the opportunity to win 300 games, and I think in order to do that, I have to pitch four (more) years. So I don't want to make a decision and in three years have to find a team to pitch for in the fourth year. That fourth year is an important part of it."

Tom Glavine will be 37 at the start of next season. In four years if Euclid serves, he will be 40. Glavine is coming off a fine season in which he went 18-11 with a 2.96. He has won two Cy Young awards and by all accounts already has a plaque reserved with his likeness in Cooperstown. But our young Tom wants to make sure that the he is settled long enough to win the 58 games necessary to reach the 300-win plateau. One could answer that if he were that close to 300 wins after three seasons, the team that he signs with will dole over whatever he wants to lock him up for a now once-in-a-lifetime event, a pitcher's 300th win, which will generate a good deal of press and fan interest. Tom is just trying to wheedle the extra year with his high market value today.

I would rather take him at his word and assume that the four years that he yearns for are to lock up the milestone, but it made me wonder how often a Hall-of-Fame pitcher indeed wn that many games in the four seasons after his 37th birthday. Well here they are, let's see:

FirstName	LastName	Threw	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K:BB
WARREN	SPAHN	L	85	49	3.13	1.18	1.98
CY	YOUNG	R	78	71	2.20	0.96	5.16
PHIL	NIEKRO	R	73	69	3.40	1.29	1.86
EDDIE	PLANK	L	70	43	2.43	1.10	2.25
DAZZY	VANCE	R	64	51	2.93	1.17	2.86
GAYLORD	PERRY	R	63	43	3.09	1.20	2.55
EARLY	WYNN	R	63	55	3.78	1.35	1.59
PETE	ALEXANDER	R	60	36	2.98	1.18	1.55
DON	SUTTON	R	54	44	3.67	1.22	2.45
LEFTY	GROVE	L	53	23	3.11	1.32	1.63
STEVE	CARLTON	L	52	42	3.25	1.25	2.56
TED	LYONS	R	47	35	3.36	1.27	1.67
TOM	SEAVER	R	45	49	3.82	1.27	1.78
RED	FABER	R	45	38	3.87	1.40	0.95
NOLAN	RYAN	R	42	47	3.25	1.18	2.61
EPPA	RIXEY	L	42	51	4.05	1.41	0.75
WALTER	JOHNSON	R	40	29	3.68	1.28	1.59
JESSE	HAINES	R	37	22	3.65	1.41	1.18
CARL	HUBBELL	L	37	33	3.84	1.34	1.49
MORDECAI	BROWN	R	33	22	2.91	1.18	1.71
HOYT	WILHELM	R	32	33	2.63	1.09	2.74
BURLEIGH	GRIMES	R	30	32	4.26	1.50	0.78
RED	RUFFING	R	29	13	3.37	1.20	1.47
HERB	PENNOCK	L	29	15	4.39	1.53	1.50
ROBIN	ROBERTS	R	28	24	3.29	1.22	2.52
JIM	BUNNING	R	28	37	4.22	1.34	2.38
BOB	GIBSON	R	26	33	3.69	1.36	1.48
FERGIE	JENKINS	R	25	32	3.83	1.37	1.90
STAN	COVELESKI	R	21	13	3.60	1.47	0.53
JOE	MCGINNITY	R	11	7	2.27	1.23	1.49
WAITE	HOYT	R	8	12	3.54	1.31	1.66
JIM	PALMER	R	5	7	5.15	1.53	1.06
WHITEY	FORD	L	4	9	2.15	1.30	1.94
RUBE	MARQUARD	L	3	10	4.83	1.65	0.73
ROLLIE	FINGERS	R	2	8	3.64	1.27	2.00
BOB	FELLER	R	0	4	4.97	1.48	0.78
DIZZY	DEAN	R	0	0	0.00	1.00	0.00
JUAN	MARICHAL	R	0	1	13.50	2.67	0.20
CLARK	GRIFFITH	R	0	1	7.55	2.38	1.00
BOB	LEMON	R	0	1	5.34	2.25	0.50

There are 40 pitchers and only 8 won 58 games in that four-year span. That's one out of five. Of course, 15 of them won more than 58 over the course of his career post age 36, but that wouldn't help the next team to sign Glavine.

I think that Glavine will find a way to wrangle an extra year out of one of the teams, most likely the pitching-poor Mets. I think that the odds that Glavine will be a productive pitcher for all four of those years is low. He has had a few unimpressive years in with his great ones (e.g., 1988-'90, '94, and '99). I think the odds are good that at least one of those four years will again be unimpressive for Glavine. The odds would apparently increase as he gets older. I also think that he will get close enough to 300 that he will be able to hang on long enough to achieve that goal. The cautionary tale of Bert Blyleven should be incentive enough.

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