Class of 2003?

ESPN reports that the new Hall of Fame ballot has been established and sent to the voters in time to get lost in the holiday mail crunch. The ballot contains 32 players, including 17 newcomers (among them the recently deceased Darryl Kile).

Conventional wisdom points to Gary Carter, who missed by 2.3% last year, and newcomers Eddie Murray (no brainer: 500 HRs and 3,000 Hs), all-time save leader Lee Smith, and second baseman Ryne Sandberg as the best bets for 2003 enshrinement. Unfortunately, that makes it more difficult for the worthy Jim Kaat to garner the necessary votes in his last year of eligibility (though the Veterans' Committee will probably come to his aid).

Here is a rundown of all the candidates and their chances based on the Hall of Fame guidelines that Bill James invented (thanks to Baseball-reference.com). For each category, I have indicated if each candidate meets the standard. Also, I have included the candidate's first year of eligibility, his 2001 voting percentage, and an assessment based on all of these criteria as to the likelihood of the candidate's enshrinement :

                   First Black Ink  >HOF Gray Ink  >HOF HOF Standard  >HOF HOF Monitor  Likely  # Similar  >50% 2001  Verdict
                    Year (Avg 40)   Avg  (Avg 185) Avg    (Avg 50)    Avg  (Likely >100) HOF?   in Hall         HOF%
Bert Blyleven       1997   16        No     239    Yes      50.0      Yes     113.5      Yes       8       Yes 26.27  Veterans' Committee
Brett Butler        2002   16        No     117    No       36.0      No       50.5      No        3       No         Dropped
Gary Carter         1997    4        No      75    No       41.3      No      135.0      Yes       4       No  72.67  2003 inductee
Vince Coleman       2002   12        No      49    No       12.9      No       27.0      No        1       No         Dropped
Dave Concepcion     1993    0        No      25    No       29.1      No      107.0      Yes       4       No  11.86  VC
Darren Daulton      2002    4        No      22    No       30.9      No       25.0      No        0       No         Dropped
Mark Davis          2002    3        No       9    No        5.0      No       26.0      No        0       No         Dropped
Andre Dawson        2001   11        No     164    No       43.7      No      117.5      Yes       5       Yes 45.34  Not in 2003, maybe someday
Sid Fernandez       2002    6        No      58    No       21.0      No       17.0      No        0       No         Dropped
Steve Garvey        1992   12        No     142    No       31.5      No      131.0      Yes       1       No  28.39  VC
Rich Gossage        1999    9        No      41    No       19.0      No      118.0      Yes       2       No  43.01  Not in 2003, maybe someday
Keith Hernandez     1995   14        No     118    No       32.0      No       86.0      No        0       No   6.14  Unlikely
Rick Honeycutt      2002    6        No      21    No        9.0      No       30.0      No        0       No         Dropped
Danny Jackson       2002    6        No      54    No        6.0      No       25.5      No        0       No         Dropped
Tommy John          1994    8        No     137    No       44.0      No      100.0      Yes       7       Yes 26.91  VC
Jim Kaat            1988   19        No     128    No       44.0      No      120.5      Yes       7       Yes 23.09  VC
Darryl Kile         2002    1        No      79    No       12.0      No       31.0      No        0       No         Dropped
Don Mattingly       2000   23        No     111    No       34.1      No      134.0      Yes       2       No  20.34  VC
Jack Morris         1999   20        No     190    Yes      39.0      No      108.5      Yes       7       Yes 20.55  VC
Dale Murphy         1998   31        No     147    No       34.3      No      115.5      Yes       1       No  14.83  VC
Eddie Murray        2002   11        No     181    No       55.8      Yes     155.0      Yes       7       Yes        2003 inductee
Dave Parker         1996   26        No     145    No       41.1      No      125.5      Yes       2       No  13.98  VC
Tony Pena           2002    0        No       8    No       22.8      No       97.0      No        2       No         Unlikely
Jim Rice            1994   33        No     176    No       42.9      No      147.0      Yes       4       No  55.08  Not in 2003, maybe someday
Ryne Sandberg       2002   14        No     134    No       42.7      No      157.0      Yes       1       No         2003 inductee
Lee Smith           2002   12        No      48    No       13.0      No      136.0      Yes       1       No         2003 inductee
Bruce Sutter        1993   15        No      30    No       17.0      No       87.0      No        0       No  50.42  Not in 2003, maybe someday
Danny Tartabull     2002    3        No      52    No       25.1      No       31.0      No        1       No         Dropped
Mickey Tettleton    2002    2        No      41    No       29.0      No       17.0      No        0       No         Dropped
Alan Trammell       2001    0        No      48    No       40.4      No      119.0      Yes       1       No  15.68  VC
Fernando Valenzuela 2002   19        No     134    No       25.0      No       64.5      No        0       No         Unlikely
Mitch Williams      2002    2        No      23    No        0.0      No       27.0      No        0       No         Dropped
Todd Worrell        2002    6        No      21    No        0.0      No       56.0      No        0       No         Dropped

By the way, if it were up to me, I would put Murray, Carter, Blyleven, Sandberg, Kaat, and Gossage in, probably in that order (I would also include some ineligible players: Ron Santo, Bobby Grich, and the Evans boys come to mind). There are a good deal of strong candidates however, and valid arguments could be made for a few others. In fact it appears (look at 2001 voting) that 3-4 strong starting pitching candidates are splitting the vote thereby preventing each other from approaching the magical 75% level.

Also, note that no one in the group compares to an average Hall of Famer as far as the black ink test is concerned. It seems that with all of the ballplayers today due to expansion, it's harder for a player to lead the league in a category. Even a clear first-year nominee like Murray didn't come close to the average 40 score (though his career was more about sustained excellence than one-year bursts).