Enshrinement by Committee

Last week the Veterans' Committee's Hall of Vote ballot came out. As you may remember, the rules were changed to allow all Hall of Famers to vote instead of a bunch of septuagenarian ex-teammates meeting in a backroom somewhere. This may breathe a little life back into the Vets' Committee, and this year's class is the litmus test.

So who are the likely Hall of Famers in this year's class? Using Bill James' categories for comparing potential HoFers to actual hones-to-goodness HoFers, we get:

	Black Ink	>HOF Avg?	Gray Ink	>HOF Avg?	HOF Std	>HOF Avg?	HOF Monitor	HOF Likely?	# Similar	% HoF 
	(Avg 27)		(Avg 144)		(Avg 50)	(Likely >100)		in Hall	Similar
Dick Allen	27	Yes	159	Yes	38.7	No	99.0	No	1	10.00%
Bobby Bonds	6	No	132	No	35.8	No	65.5	No	0	0.00%
Ken Boyer	4	No	138	No	35.7	No	74.0	No	0	0.00%
Rocky
Colavito	15	No	144	Yes	29.9	No	72.0	No	0	0.00%
Wes Ferrell	25	No	164	Yes	33.0	No	75.0	No	0	0.00%
Curt Flood	5	No	58	No	15.0	No	53.0	No	0	0.00%
Joe Gordon	2	No	111	No	30.8	No	87.0	No	1	10.00%
Gil Hodges	2	No	128	No	31.7	No	83.0	No	0	0.00%
Elston 
Howard	0	No	27	No	24.0	No	74.0	No	0	0.00%
Ted 
Kluszewski	11	No	112	No	24.0	No	77.0	No	0	0.00%
Mickey 
Lolich	15	No	156	Yes	37.0	No	92.5	No	1	10.00%
Marty Marion	3	No	10	No	16.9	No	57.0	No	1	10.00%
Roger Maris	18	No	57	No	22.0	No	83.0	No	0	0.00%
Mike 
Marshall	13	No	39	No	11.0	No	49.0	No	0	0.00%
Carl Mays	33	Yes	172	Yes	3.0	No	99.0	No	3	30.00%
Bob Meusel	9	No	107	No	31.1	No	76.0	No	2	20.00%
Minnie 
Minoso	15	No	189	Yes	35.1	No	81.0	No	0	0.00%
Thurman 
Munson	0	No	46	No	29.5	No	89.0	No	0	0.00%
Don Newcombe	21	No	136	No	5.0	No	68.0	No	1	10.00%
Tony Oliva	41	Yes	146	Yes	28.9	No	114.0	Yes	1	10.00%
Vada Pinson	18	No	135	No	35.9	No	87.0	No	3	30.00%
Allie 
Reynolds	18	No	161	Yes	33.0	No	86.0	No	2	20.00%
Ron Santo	11	No	147	Yes	40.9	No	88.0	No	0	0.00%
Joe Torre	12	No	71	No	40.1	No	96.0	No	2	20.00%
Ken Williams	11	No	121	No	39.0	No	67.0	No	2	20.00%
Maury Wills	16	No	67	No	28.6	No	98.0	No	3	30.00%

There are a lot of great near-immortal careers in there. Some were cut short when the players were still young. One, Minoso's, didn't get started until the player was old. One, Mays, killed a man, Ray Chapman, in a game.

Of these, Carl Mays, Tony Oliva, Dick Allen, and Wes Ferrell seem the most likely candidates. Santo may get a boost from all of the Bill James support over the years. Torre will probably go in as a manager.

There are a number of non-players on the ballot (Buzzie Bavasi, August Busch Jr., Harry Dalton, Charles O. Finley, Doug Harvey, Whitey Herzog, Bowie Kuhn, Walter O'Malley, Billy Martin, Marvin Miller, Gabe Paul, Paul Richards, Bill White, Dick Williams, Phil Wrigley). It's hard to predict who will garner support. Of all the individuals on the list, Marvin Miller made the biggest impact and should be well-known by all of the recent Hall of Famers. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the managers (Martin, Richards, or Williams) go in. As far as the other owners and executives, I would think that the recent HoFers would be a little less likely to vote for an owner given the labor struggles of the last thirty years (though Wrigley and O'Malley are probably deserving enshrinement should we consider owners Hall material).