"I don't want to achieve immortality through my work ... I want to achieve it through not dying" (Woody Allen)

Yesterday, my friend Murray and I were emailing each other regarding the Jim Rice/Hall of Fame post I made they other day. I had a thought about Rice and his ilk, thus:

There are a number of players like Rice (Parker, Murphy, Dawson, Allen, Mattingly, etc.) that are going to be interesting litmus tests for the writers and especially the Vets' Committee. I'm not sure if I would put any of them in, but given the dearth of players from the '70s and '80s in the Hall (I have to re-check this but I remember there being something like half as many players as the other eras) someone else from those decades will have to go in. And Joe Morgan only has some many ex-Red teammates left. After he fast-tracks Ed Armbrister, they will have to look elsewhere. I just wonder who'll make the cut. We may not know for some time.

Well, the issue stuck in my craw, and we all know how painful that is. So I did a little research:

By the way, I checked out the HoF data I was discussing earlier... Attached is a spreadsheet with the # of active HoFers (MLB players only), # of total ballplayers, and the % of HoFers per year. I also graphed it in the spreadsheet. I would post it, but I don't know how to embed graphs. Anyway, note the decline in the number of HoFers since around 1973 and in the % of HoFers since around 1968. There are a bunch of players who are not yet eligible (Henderson, Bonds, Clemens, etc.) who will boost some of these numbers but it's still pretty low. And it starts to decline a good 10 years before any of those guys even started. (E.g. only 2.87 of all players active in 1977, not coincidentally an expansion year, are in the Hall of Fame.)

They're going to have to rectify this by letting in a few borderline [players]. We're talking about around 10+ guys to get the numbers up to the previous eras. Because of expansion to get the percentages up to the previous eras (~4-6%), we are probably 20+ since the early '70s. They may not want to "cheapen" it and allow for expansion, but they at least have to get the number of HoFers in the same neighborhood.

Also, note the damage done by letting in so many players from the late '20s and the early '30s. There are about twice the players by percentage in the Hall than normal (4-6%) and that's not counting the Negro Leaguers hat have been admitted. The 1900 spike is due to the 1899 contraction and then the advent of the major-league AL in 1901. The dip in the teens is due to the FL and then WWI. The same goes for the dip in the '40s and WWII. The dip in the 1880s is due to the AA, UA, and PL.

Here's the chart to which I referred. Unfortunately, I can't post the graphs, so I'll do the next best thing. The average percentage of Hall of Fame players in the chart is 5.34%. Let's call a year in the average range if the percentage is between 4 and 8%. I have underlined the years below 4%, and italicized the ones over 8%:

Year	# HoFers	# players	% in Hall
1871	1	115	0.87%
1872	2	144	1.39%
1873	2	122	1.64%
1874	2	120	1.67%
1875	3	190	1.58%
1876	2	121	1.65%
1877	2	92	2.17%
1878	4	77	5.19%
1879	6	119	5.04%
1880	11	127	8.66%
1881	11	120	9.17%
1882	13	229	5.68%
1883	12	257	4.67%
1884	14	635	2.20%
1885	15	322	4.66%
1886	15	326	4.60%
1887	15	316	4.75%
1888	19	331	5.74%
1889	20	322	6.21%
1890	24	508	4.72%
1891	26	358	7.26%
1892	26	266	9.77%
1893	24	259	9.27%
1894	23	260	8.85%
1895	22	281	7.83%
1896	22	270	8.15%
1897	24	263	9.13%
1898	22	298	7.38%
1899	24	308	7.79%
1900	25	188	13.30%
1901	27	369	7.32%
1902	26	389	6.68%
1903	28	368	7.61%
1904	31	363	8.54%
1905	30	388	7.73%
1906	31	412	7.52%
1907	30	413	7.26%
1908	31	434	7.14%
1909	31	500	6.20%
1910	29	497	5.84%
1911	25	529	4.73%
1912	29	578	5.02%
1913	29	560	5.18%
1914	32	730	4.38%
1915	35	719	4.87%
1916	35	516	6.78%
1917	33	480	6.88%
1918	27	471	5.73%
1919	28	466	6.01%
1920	30	483	6.21%
1921	33	478	6.90%
1922	38	480	7.92%
1923	40	494	8.10%
1924	47	509	9.23%
1925	50	508	9.84%
1926	52	488	10.66%
1927	52	491	10.59%
1928	53	490	10.82%
1929	53	497	10.66%
1930	53	477	11.11%
1931	48	483	9.94%
1932	52	482	10.79%
1933	51	448	11.38%
1934	47	478	9.83%
1935	44	472	9.32%
1936	41	469	8.74%
1937	41	487	8.42%
1938	36	486	7.41%
1939	36	517	6.96%
1940	33	500	6.60%
1941	36	531	6.78%
1942	31	500	6.20%
1943	20	508	3.94%
1944	16	525	3.05%
1945	16	536	2.99%
1946	27	601	4.49%
1947	32	521	6.14%
1948	29	514	5.64%
1949	28	511	5.48%
1950	28	504	5.56%
1951	29	522	5.56%
1952	29	535	5.42%
1953	30	516	5.81%
1954	31	517	6.00%
1955	34	571	5.95%
1956	36	525	6.86%
1957	32	538	5.95%
1958	31	557	5.57%
1959	32	546	5.86%
1960	31	554	5.60%
1961	32	598	5.35%
1962	34	669	5.08%
1963	34	668	5.09%
1964	31	664	4.67%
1965	37	672	5.51%
1966	34	677	5.02%
1967	36	684	5.26%
1968	35	644	5.43%
1969	36	807	4.46%
1970	34	813	4.18%
1971	35	801	4.37%
1972	34	789	4.31%
1973	31	661	4.69%
1974	27	681	3.96%
1975	26	670	3.88%
1976	23	664	3.46%
1977	20	698	2.87%
1978	21	692	3.03%
1979	21	685	3.07%
1980	20	709	2.82%
1981	19	705	2.70%
1982	19	720	2.64%
1983	17	735	2.31%
1984	13	721	1.80%
1985	12	706	1.70%
1986	11	726	1.52%
1987	10	747	1.34%
1988	9	717	1.26%
1989	6	734	0.82%
1990	6	742	0.81%
1991	6	755	0.79%
1992	6	752	0.80%
1993	6	820	0.73%
1994	3	722	0.42%
1995	3	822	0.36%
1996	1	832	0.12%
1997	0	908	0.00%
1998	0	967	0.00%
1999	0	960	0.00%
2000	0	1132	0.00%
2001	0	1220	0.00%

All of the time periods that fall outside the norm can be explained by some phenomenon or another in the sport except for two, the highs of 1923 to 1937 and the lows since 1974. (Aside from the salient issues I raise above: The lows of 1871-77 are a product of a still developing major league system. As the AA folds after 1891, the percentage skyrockets.) As I already said, the 1923-'37 aberration is due to the excesses of past Veterans' Committees.

Part of the explanation for the historic lows since 1974 can be attributed to players who either a) are not yet eligible or b) are eligible but have not served their time in purgatory but will be inducted eventually (e.g., Gary Carter).

Here are all of the Hall of Famers who retired after 1936, the first year of inductees, with their last major-league year, the year inducted, and the number of years that they had to wait to be inducted:

FirstName	LastName	Inducted	Last Year	Diff
LOU	GEHRIG	1939	1939	0
ROGERS	HORNSBY	1942	1937	5
CARL	HUBBELL	1947	1943	4
FRANKIE	FRISCH	1947	1937	10
LEFTY	GROVE	1947	1941	6
MICKEY	COCHRANE	1947	1937	10
PIE	TRAYNOR	1948	1937	11
CHARLIE	GEHRINGER	1949	1942	7
JIMMIE	FOXX	1951	1945	6
MEL	OTT	1951	1947	4
PAUL	WANER	1952	1945	7
AL	SIMMONS	1953	1944	9
DIZZY	DEAN	1953	1947	6
BILL	DICKEY	1954	1946	8
BILL	TERRY	1954	1936	18
GABBY	HARTNETT	1955	1941	14
JOE	DIMAGGIO	1955	1951	4
TED	LYONS	1955	1946	9
HANK	GREENBERG	1956	1947	9
JOE	CRONIN	1956	1945	11
BOB	FELLER	1962	1956	6
JACKIE	ROBINSON	1962	1956	6
HEINIE	MANUSH	1964	1939	25
LUKE	APPLING	1964	1950	14
TED	WILLIAMS	1966	1960	6
LLOYD	WANER	1967	1945	22
RED	RUFFING	1967	1947	20
GOOSE	GOSLIN	1968	1938	30
JOE	MEDWICK	1968	1948	20
KIKI	CUYLER	1968	1938	30
ROY	CAMPANELLA	1969	1957	12
STAN	MUSIAL	1969	1963	6
WAITE	HOYT	1969	1938	31
JESSE	HAINES	1970	1937	33
LOU	BOUDREAU	1970	1952	18
CHICK	HAFEY	1971	1937	34
SATCHEL	PAIGE	1971	1965	6
EARLY	WYNN	1972	1963	9
LEFTY	GOMEZ	1972	1943	29
SANDY	KOUFAX	1972	1966	6
YOGI	BERRA	1972	1965	7
MONTE	IRVIN	1973	1956	17
ROBERTO	CLEMENTE	1973	1972	1
WARREN	SPAHN	1973	1965	8
JIM	BOTTOMLEY	1974	1937	37
MICKEY	MANTLE	1974	1968	6
WHITEY	FORD	1974	1967	7
BILLY	HERMAN	1975	1947	28
EARL	AVERILL	1975	1941	34
RALPH	KINER	1975	1955	20
BOB	LEMON	1976	1958	18
FREDDY	LINDSTROM	1976	1936	40
ROBIN	ROBERTS	1976	1966	10
ERNIE	BANKS	1977	1971	6
EDDIE	MATHEWS	1978	1968	10
WILLIE	MAYS	1979	1973	6
AL	KALINE	1980	1974	6
CHUCK	KLEIN	1980	1944	36
DUKE	SNIDER	1980	1964	16
BOB	GIBSON	1981	1975	6
JOHNNY	MIZE	1981	1953	28
FRANK	ROBINSON	1982	1976	6
HANK	AARON	1982	1976	6
TRAVIS	JACKSON	1982	1936	46
BROOKS	ROBINSON	1983	1977	6
GEORGE	KELL	1983	1957	26
JUAN	MARICHAL	1983	1975	8
DON	DRYSDALE	1984	1969	15
HARMON	KILLEBREW	1984	1975	9
LUIS	APARICIO	1984	1973	11
PEE WEE	REESE	1984	1958	26
RICK	FERRELL	1984	1947	37
ARKY	VAUGHAN	1985	1948	37
ENOS	SLAUGHTER	1985	1959	26
HOYT	WILHELM	1985	1972	13
LOU	BROCK	1985	1979	6
BOBBY	DOERR	1986	1951	35
ERNIE	LOMBARDI	1986	1947	39
WILLIE	MCCOVEY	1986	1980	6
BILLY	WILLIAMS	1987	1976	11
CATFISH	HUNTER	1987	1976	11
WILLIE	STARGELL	1988	1982	6
CARL	YASTRZEMSKI	1989	1983	6
JOHNNY	BENCH	1989	1983	6
RED	SCHOENDIENST	1989	1963	26
JIM	PALMER	1990	1972	18
JOE	MORGAN	1990	1984	6
FERGIE	JENKINS	1991	1983	8
GAYLORD	PERRY	1991	1981	10
ROD	CAREW	1991	1985	6
TONY	LAZZERI	1991	1939	52
HAL	NEWHOUSER	1992	1954	38
ROLLIE	FINGERS	1992	1980	12
TOM	SEAVER	1992	1983	9
REGGIE	JACKSON	1993	1987	6
PHIL	RIZZUTO	1994	1956	38
STEVE	CARLTON	1994	1986	8
MIKE	SCHMIDT	1995	1989	6
RICHIE	ASHBURN	1995	1962	33
JIM	BUNNING	1996	1971	25
NELLIE	FOX	1997	1965	32
PHIL	NIEKRO	1997	1987	10
DON	SUTTON	1998	1988	10
LARRY	DOBY	1998	1959	39
GEORGE	BRETT	1999	1993	6
NOLAN	RYAN	1999	1988	11
ORLANDO	CEPEDA	1999	1974	25
ROBIN	YOUNT	1999	1993	6
CARLTON	FISK	2000	1993	7
TONY	PEREZ	2000	1986	14
DAVE	WINFIELD	2001	1995	6
KIRBY	PUCKETT	2001	1995	6
OZZIE	SMITH	2002	1996	6
Average				15.44248
Median				10
Max				52
Min				0

Note that the average is about 15 years. The median is 10 years, meaning that there are number of outliers who had to wait 30 or more years-20 of the 113 who qualified. So there may be a few from the early '70s who will still get elected even though they have waited over decades.

It is also partially due to the rapid expansion in the last 40 years. There were over twice as many major league ballplayers at the end of the century than in the pre-expansion era. From 1916 to 1960 there were just 16 major league teams. The average number of major-leaguers in that period is 506, almost 32 per club per year.

Do the voters somehow have a preconceived notion as far as the Hall-of-Fame standards based on pre-expansion numbers? I created a new table based on the numbers above taken from 1969, the year that the downward trend starts, until 2001. I have added columns for the projected number of Hofers based on 4% (the low end of our average), 5.34% (the average percentage form the table), and 8% (the high end of our average) of the active players:

Year	HoF	# players	% in Hall	4% HoF	Diff	5.34% HoF	Diff	8% HoF	Diff
1969	36	807	4.46%	32	-4	43	7	65	29
1970	34	813	4.18%	33	-1	43	9	65	31
1971	35	801	4.37%	32	-3	43	8	64	29
1972	34	789	4.31%	32	-2	42	8	63	29
1973	31	661	4.69%	26	-5	35	4	53	22
1974	27	681	3.96%	27	0	36	9	54	27
1975	26	670	3.88%	27	1	36	10	54	28
1976	23	664	3.46%	27	4	35	12	53	30
1977	20	698	2.87%	28	8	37	17	56	36
1978	21	692	3.03%	28	7	37	16	55	34
1979	21	685	3.07%	27	6	37	16	55	34
1980	20	709	2.82%	28	8	38	18	57	37
1981	19	705	2.70%	28	9	38	19	56	37
1982	19	720	2.64%	29	10	38	19	58	39
1983	17	735	2.31%	29	12	39	22	59	42
1984	13	721	1.80%	29	16	39	26	58	45
1985	12	706	1.70%	28	16	38	26	56	44
1986	11	726	1.52%	29	18	39	28	58	47
1987	10	747	1.34%	30	20	40	30	60	50
1988	9	717	1.26%	29	20	38	29	57	48
1989	6	734	0.82%	29	23	39	33	59	53
1990	6	742	0.81%	30	24	40	34	59	53
1991	6	755	0.79%	30	24	40	34	60	54
1992	6	752	0.80%	30	24	40	34	60	54
1993	6	820	0.73%	33	27	44	38	66	60
1994	3	722	0.42%	29	26	39	36	58	55
1995	3	822	0.36%	33	30	44	41	66	63
1996	1	832	0.12%	33	32	44	43	67	66
1997	0	908	0.00%	36	36	48	48	73	73
1998	0	967	0.00%	39	39	52	52	77	77
1999	0	960	0.00%	38	38	51	51	77	77
2000	0	1132	0.00%	45	45	60	60	91	91
2001	0	1220	0.00%	49	49	65	65	98	98

Given that this is largely a moving target given the previous issue, it's difficult to say with any degree of certainty that there has been a change in attitudes. That said, the numbers do look low. Look at 1977, it's 8 players short of the minimum 4% level. Given that it's 25 years ago and that the average waiting period is about 15 years, a young player in 1977 or three could still get inducted (Eddie Murray for one). However, that still seems pretty low.

Let's try something else. Let's re-do the table above based on the average number of pre-expansion players (506):

Year	HoF	# players	% in Hall	4% HoF	Diff	5.34% HoF	Diff	8% HoF	Diff
1969	36	506	7.11%	20	-16	27	-9	40	4
1970	34	506	6.72%	20	-14	27	-7	40	6
1971	35	506	6.92%	20	-15	27	-8	40	5
1972	34	506	6.72%	20	-14	27	-7	40	6
1973	31	506	6.13%	20	-11	27	-4	40	9
1974	27	506	5.34%	20	-7	27	0	40	13
1975	26	506	5.14%	20	-6	27	1	40	14
1976	23	506	4.55%	20	-3	27	4	40	17
1977	20	506	3.95%	20	0	27	7	40	20
1978	21	506	4.15%	20	-1	27	6	40	19
1979	21	506	4.15%	20	-1	27	6	40	19
1980	20	506	3.95%	20	0	27	7	40	20
1981	19	506	3.75%	20	1	27	8	40	21
1982	19	506	3.75%	20	1	27	8	40	21
1983	17	506	3.36%	20	3	27	10	40	23
1984	13	506	2.57%	20	7	27	14	40	27
1985	12	506	2.37%	20	8	27	15	40	28
1986	11	506	2.17%	20	9	27	16	40	29
1987	10	506	1.98%	20	10	27	17	40	30
1988	9	506	1.78%	20	11	27	18	40	31
1989	6	506	1.19%	20	14	27	21	40	34
1990	6	506	1.19%	20	14	27	21	40	34
1991	6	506	1.19%	20	14	27	21	40	34
1992	6	506	1.19%	20	14	27	21	40	34
1993	6	506	1.19%	20	14	27	21	40	34
1994	3	506	0.59%	20	17	27	24	40	37
1995	3	506	0.59%	20	17	27	24	40	37
1996	1	506	0.20%	20	19	27	26	40	39
1997	0	506	0.00%	20	20	27	27	40	40
1998	0	506	0.00%	20	20	27	27	40	40
1999	0	506	0.00%	20	20	27	27	40	40
2000	0	506	0.00%	20	20	27	27	40	40
2001	0	506	0.00%	20	20	27	27	40	40

It appears that from 1969-'73 some allowance was made for the influx of players due to expansion. There have been more Hall-of-Famers inducted from that period than the pre-expansion average. Given that the late '70s have a handful of players like Murray (e.g. Henderson and Raines) who may boost its numbers, it seems that this trend will continue into the players from the 1980s. My one question is whether or not this trend will continue with the continued expansion (1977, '93, and '98). That answer we will not know for some time.

My last thought is that there are perhaps two other forces that will contribute to the levels of Hall of Famers from the present/recent era. The first is the offensive explosion since the mid-1990s. More players will be achieving impressive offensive numbers than in the past, and they will get a lot of attention. If the Thirties are any indication, more Hall of Famers than normal will be elected from the current period. Of course, that is assuming that the Veterans' Committee will play the same sort of role as in the past and that sabermetrical means to normalize these numbers will not be utilized in the assessment of these players. Given that the VC has been recently reconstituted and could be again, there's no way to know how they will act in the future.

The other force is a retarding one and it has to do with the phenomenon that sports economist Andrew Zimbalist calls "talent compression". Zimbalist maintained that certain performance levels are more difficult to achieve today than in the past because the level of play has evened out. There are more players nearer to an average major-leaguer and fewer poor players today. This causes milestones like batting .400 and certain batting records to be beyond today's players grasps-there just aren't enough poor pitchers to beat up on. Of course, Zimbalist wrote about talent compression before the recent offensive explosion. The home run record that stood for 37 years (and was a 162-game adjusted over the previous record that stood for 34) was broken twice in three years and was bested by more than 20%.

I am not entirely sold on Zimbalist theory. I am not sure if it just appears that way given a number of historic trends. I would want to verify it with some sort of comparison over time of the standard deviation of key (normalized) statistics. Still, it may not be convincing given that expansion increases the number of ballplayers. Whenever the number of subjects in a data set increases, the standard deviation decreases (the key problem with Rob Neyer's Dynasties book).

There are number of forces at work here. We won't know for sure which ones will be the strongest until all of the players from the current/recent eras are inducted. Given the history of the Hall, that may not be complete for maybe half a century. So I'll post something on this on New Year's Eve 2052. It should be an interesting 50 years.