Starting Byung the Pale?

I have been watching Byung-Hyun Kim's attempted conversion from closer to starter this spring with a healthy dose of skepticism. I know that Derek Lowe made the conversion rather easily and successfully last year with the Red Sox. But Lowe came up as a starter and was converted to a closer once he joined the Red Sox. Besides Lowe was converted because he had an unsuccessful year as a closer in 2001 (4.04 ERA with only 24 saves as a reliever, substandard for a closer today).

Kim is coming off his best year to date with 36 saves, a 2.04 ERA, 3.5 strikeouts per walk, almost 10 strikeouts per nine innings, only half a home run allowed per nine innings, and a WHIP just over 1.00. He was an asset in a sputtering Diamondbacks bullpen last year.

He has only started one game in his career whereas Lowe was switched to a starter for his last three appearances of the 2001 and pitched well in the trial.

Not only that, he has a slight build (5'11" and 177 pounds), and his famous meltdown in game 4 of the 2001 World Series happened when he pitched the final 2.2 innings of the game including two outs of the 10th inning. Surely he is an inappropriate, at best, candidate to convert to a starter.

Well, perhaps not. I took his 2001 and 2002 appearances (including the playoffs) and broke them down by the length of the outing: one or less inning, more than one inning, and two or more innings. I know that these are still relief outings and that they are nowhere near what he would be doing as a starter, but I just wanted to see if Kim appeared to tire or got stronger when he pitched longer outings. And I got that, but I got more, a whole lot more, to quote Marti DiBergi.

First, here are Kim's yearly numbers:

Year	  ERA	WHIP	K/BB	K/9IP	HR/9 IP
1999	4.61	1.46	1.55	10.21	0.66
2000	4.46	1.39	2.41	14.14	1.15
2001	2.94	1.04	2.57	10.38	0.92
2002	2.04	1.07	3.54	9.86	0.54
Total	3.21	1.18	2.55	11.15	0.84

It looks like a pretty good progression for Kim. He gets better each year. The one odd thing is that his strikeouts per nine innings has actually gone down each of the last three seasons as he has improved. Keep this in mind.

Now let's take a look at his 2001 outings:

Length	  IP	  ERA	WHIP	K/BB	K/9IP	HR/9 IP
<=1 IP	42.2	4.64	1.29	1.75	8.86	1.48
>1	65	2.08	0.89	3.38	11.22	0.83
>=2	48	0.94	0.65	5.31	12.94	0.56

Now 2002:

Length	  IP	  ERA	WHIP	K/BB	K/9IP	HR/9 IP
<=1 IP	47	2.68	1.19	2.63	9.57	0.77
>1	38	1.66	1.03	4.20	9.95	0.24
>=2	23.1	1.16	0.77	3.43	9.26	0.39

In both years his ERA and WHIP went down the longer he pitched. Also, his home runs allowed and strikeout-to-walk ratio tended to improve. It is odd that in 2001, his strikeouts per nine innings went up the longer he pitched and in 2002 they went down. I'm not entirely sure what that is indicating. I know that he has pitched better as he has learned to go for the strikeout less in his career and 2002 would indicate that translates into his performance within a game, but then 2001 contradicts that. Go figure.

Anyway, there is some indication that he could do better with longer outings. And if you have a pitcher who can start and close, it is preferable to use him as a starter and bleed more innings out of him. That said, whether or not he is a credible starter has yet to be determined. Kim may be more of a Kent Tekulve (similar deliveries too) or Ramiro Mendoza type: he may be best used in long relief for two to three innings per shot. That may be the extent of it, but we'll never know until he tries.

Given the Red Sox closer-by-committee, Lowe's possible continued success as a converted closer, and Kim's attempted conversion to starter, this could prove a pivotal year for the closer role for years to come.