"Ipse Dixit"-Easy for Pythagoras to Say

It's three weeks into the season and I thought it would be interesting to compare the actual standings against the Pythagorean standings. Bill James first introduced the idea of calculating a team's projected performance based on their runs for and against, which he called the Pythogorean formula (Win = Games * RF^1.83 / (RF^1.83 + RA^1.83). Actually James used to the power of two, but I prefer 1.83. I'm kooky that way).

It's a small sample and the differences may be meaningless, but the Pythogorean formula may be a more accurate way of calculating actual performance and predicting first half performance. So here 'tis:

 ----Actual----  -Runs-  --Pythogoras--
AL EAST        W  L  PCT GB   For Opp  W  L  PCT GB
NY Yankees    20  5 .800  -   170  88 19  6 .760  -
Boston        16  9 .640  4   147 138 13 12 .520  6
Baltimore     12 12 .500  7.5 115 117 12 12 .500  6.5
Tampa Bay     10 15 .400 10   116 153  9 16 .360 10
Toronto       10 16 .385 11   139 159 11 15 .423  8.5
AL CENTRAL         
Kansas City   17  5 .773  -   119  83 15  7 .682  -
Chicago Sox   14 11 .560  4.5 116  99 14 11 .560  2.5
Minnesota     10 14 .417  8    88 106 10 14 .417  6
Cleveland      7 18 .280 12    88 116  9 16 .360  9
Detroit        3 20 .130 15    52 116  4 19 .174 11.5
AL WEST            
Seattle       16  9 .640  -   121  96 15 10 .600  -
Oakland       15 10 .600  1   126  93 16  9 .640  0
Anaheim       11 14 .440  5   124 124 13 12 .520  2
Texas         11 14 .440  5   120 153 10 15 .400  5
           
NL EAST  
Philadelphia  16 10 .615  -   145  95 18  8 .692  -
Montreal      15 10 .600  0.5 112  86 15 10 .600  2.5
Atlanta       15 10 .600  0.5 118 130 11 14 .440  6.5
Florida       13 14 .481  3.5 127 138 12 15 .444  6.5
NY Mets       11 14 .440  4.5  90 112 10 15 .400  7.5
NL CENTRAL       
Chicago Cubs  14 11 .560  -   146 102 16  9 .640  -
St. Louis     11 12 .478  2   130 107 14  9 .609  1
Houston       11 13 .458  2.5 106 113 11 13 .458  4.5
Pittsburgh    10 14 .417  3.5  86  98 11 13 .458  4.5
Cincinnati    10 15 .400  4   114 166  8 17 .320  8
Milwaukee      9 16 .360  5   102 138  9 16 .360  7
NL WEST         
San Francisco 18  6 .750  -   125 105 14 10 .583  -
Colorado      14 11 .560  4.5 152 137 14 11 .560  0.5
Los Angeles   12 14 .462  7    93  83 14 12 .538  1
Arizona       11 15 .423  8    97 109 12 14 .462  3
San Diego     10 15 .400  8.5 100 124 10 15 .400  4.5

It makes me think that the Royals', Giants', and Mariners' leads may be shrinking, and that the Phils', and Yanks' may be expanding soon. The Cubs should have a better record, but so should the Cards. The two West divisions may be the most interesting (again) with three or four teams remaining competitive in each.

Stay tuned.