Homer the Brave

I've been noticing lately in Lee Sinins' ATM Reports that nearly every day some current player leapfrogs over an old-time player in the all-time career home run standings.

Add to that the fact that there were four men poised to break 500 homers at the beginning of the season. Sammy Sosa has already done it and Rafael Palmero is only three away. There are also a slew of players approaching 400 home runs, and 5 could hit that milestone by the end of the year. Never mind that Barry Bonds could get to number three on the all-time list by the end of the year.

I heard a lengthy dissertation by one of the YES network brain trust the other day during the Rangers-Yankees game about how Rafael Palmeiro had declined since Ahab-like setting his sights on 500 home runs. The YES man (Michael Kay? Bobby Murcer?) claimed that Palmeiro's value had decreased since he used to be a .300 batter with the O's and he bats in the .270-.290 range with the Rangers. Let's be clear about this: Palmeiro has not been as good a player with the Rangers as he was with the Orioles-he's been better. In his first year with Texas he posted an ungodly 1.050 OPS that was 60% than the park-adjusted league average, his highest total ever in arguably his best year ever. Last year he posted a .571 slugging average, his third highest total. His on-base percentage with the Rangers has been over .380 each year and as high as .420 (!).

The announcer further explained that Palmeiro just isn't what people look for in Hall-of-Famers and neither is Fred McGriff. When they pass 500 career home runs, he continued, the milestone will lose its cachet and the Hall-of-Fame voters will have to readjust their standards.

This is an even more inaccurate statement than his empirically unsubstantiated claptrap in his "Palemiero is declining" assertion, though it is harder to disprove. This is the sort of stuff that was said about now-immortals like Hank Greenberg and Johnny Mize. Yes, there are more players hitting 500 home runs now. And, yes, they are not all Babe Ruth, but they are all still Hall-of-Fame caliber players.

YES pointed to Dave Kingman who fell 58 home runs short of 500 home runs (I believe they said fewer) and Jose Canseco. Well, both of those men had their good points and their bad points. Would they be Hall-of-Famers if they had reached 500 home runs? I'm not sure. A case could be made for Canseco even without the 500 dingers. He reaches most of Bill James' indicators. Kingman is a harder sell, but for him to hit the extra 58 HRs, he would have to have had a somewhat different career. So maybe he would get the call-it's hard to determine with such a hypothetical. I don't think he would embarrass Ross Youngs and Travis Jackson in any case.

What really irks me is that these are the guys who will bemoan the omission of players like Jim Rice from the Hall ranks, when Rice is a demonstrably inferior player to Palmeiro and McGriff. It's your garden variety "It was better in my day"-ism. These young whippersnappers hit more homers so their records just don't count (P-tooey!).

I thought I would tackle that argument with a quick table. Here are the numbers of 300-, 400-, and 500-HR hitters for their careers prior to a number of seasons along with the total number of ballplayers who had played 'til that point. The milestone home run hitters are then represented as a percentage of all ballplayers:

Homer the Brave

I've been noticing lately in Lee Sinins' ATM Reports that nearly every day some current player leapfrogs over an old-time player in the all-time career home run standings.  

Add to that the fact that there were four men poised to break 500 homers at the beginning of the season.  Sammy Sosa has already done it and Rafael Palmero is only three away. There are also a slew of players approaching 400 home runs, and 5 could hit that milestone by the end of the year. Never mind that Barry Bonds could get to number three on the all-time list by the end of the year.

I heard a lengthy dissertation by one of the YES network brain trust the other day during the Rangers-Yankees game about how Rafael Palmeiro had declined since Ahab-like setting his sights on 500 home runs.  The YES man (Michael Kay? Bobby Murcer?) claimed that Palmeiro's value had decreased since he used to be a .300 batter with the O's and he bats in the .270-.290 range with the Rangers.  Let's be clear about this: Palmeiro has not been as good a player with the Rangers as he was with the Orioles-he's been better.  In his first year with Texas he posted an ungodly 1.050 OPS that was 60% than the park-adjusted league average, his highest total ever in arguably his best year ever.  Last year he posted a .571 slugging average, his third highest total. His on-base percentage with the Rangers has been over .380 each year and as high as .420 (!).  

The announcer further explained that Palmeiro just isn't what people look for in Hall-of-Famers and neither is Fred McGriff.  When they pass 500 career home runs, he continued, the milestone will lose its cachet and the Hall-of-Fame voters will have to readjust their standards.

This is an even more inaccurate statement than his empirically unsubstantiated claptrap in his "Palemiero is declining" assertion, though it is harder to disprove.  This is the sort of stuff that was said about now-immortals like Hank Greenberg and Johnny Mize.  Yes, there are more players hitting 500 home runs now.  And, yes, they are not all Babe Ruth, but they are all still Hall-of-Fame caliber players.  

YES pointed to Dave Kingman who fell 58 home runs short of 500 home runs (I believe they said fewer) and Jose Canseco.  Well, both of those men had their good points and their bad points.  Would they be Hall-of-Famers if they had reached 500 home runs?  I'm not sure.  A case could be made for Canseco even without the 500 dingers.  He reaches most of Bill James' indicators.  Kingman is a harder sell, but for him to hit the extra 58 HRs, he would have to have had a somewhat different career.  So maybe he would get the call-it's hard to determine with such a hypothetical.  I don't think he would embarrass Ross Youngs and Travis Jackson in any case.

What really irks me is that these are the guys who will bemoan the omission of players like Jim Rice from the Hall ranks, when Rice is a demonstrably inferior player to Palmeiro and McGriff.  It's your garden variety "It was better in my day"-ism.  These young whippersnappers hit more homers so their records just don't count (P-tooey!).  

I thought I would tackle that argument with a quick table.  Here are the numbers of 300-, 400-, and 500-HR hitters for their careers prior to a number of seasons along with the total number of ballplayers who had played 'til that point.  The milestone home run hitters are then represented as a percentage of all ballplayers: