Baseball Toaster: Mike's Baseball Rants : Series of Surprises

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Series of Surprises

2007-04-24 09:56

by Mike Carminati

Life is a series of surprises, and would not be worth taking or keeping, if it were not.
—Ralph Waldo Emerson

Now that I have created a little series database, I have been playing around with the data and found something interesting. A team's percentage of series won is a better predictor of winning percentage than the runs-based expected winning percentage (a .965 vs. .955 correlation coefficient). I know, it's not that surprising given that we are comparing wins, or at least series wins, to wins. But, hey, I love stats, so…

Here are the teams with the best series winning percentage all time with their overall winning percentage and expected percentage:

Team	Yr	Lg	#Series	Series W	Series L	Series Tied	PCT	W	L	PCT	Exp Pct
Chicago White Stockings	1880	NL	28	25	3	0	.893	67	17	.779	.725
Boston Red Stockings	1875	NA	59	49	4	6	.881	71	8	.866	.835
Seattle Mariners	2001	AL	53	43	6	4	.849	116	46	.716	.672
Chicago White Stockings	1876	NL	26	20	2	4	.846	52	14	.788	.835
Milwaukee Brewers	1884	UA	3	2	0	1	.833	8	4	.667	.693
Boston Beaneaters	1897	NL	46	36	6	4	.826	93	39	.689	.688
St. Louis Maroons	1884	UA	37	28	4	5	.824	94	19	.825	.791
New York Yankees	1932	AL	50	38	6	6	.820	107	47	.686	.644
Boston Red Stockings	1872	NA	41	33	7	1	.817	39	8	.813	.810
Chicago Cubs	1906	NL	49	37	6	6	.816	116	36	.748	.755
New York Giants	1885	NL	55	38	4	13	.809	85	27	.759	.758
Cleveland Indians	1995	AL	46	34	6	6	.804	100	44	.694	.644
Pittsburgh Pirates	1902	NL	56	41	7	8	.804	103	36	.725	.738

Here are the worst:

Team	Yr	Lg	#Series	Series W	Series L	Series Tied	PCT	W	L	PCT	Exp Pct
Washington Nationals	1872	NA	11	0	11	0	.000	0	11	.000	.170
Baltimore Marylands	1873	NA	3	0	3	0	.000	0	6	.000	.038
Wilmington Quicksteps	1884	UA	5	0	5	0	.000	2	16	.111	.103
Elizabeth Resolutes	1873	NA	20	1	19	0	.050	2	21	.087	.115
Brooklyn Atlantics	1875	NA	34	2	32	0	.059	2	42	.045	.100
Keokuk Westerns	1875	NA	8	0	7	1	.063	1	12	.077	.227
Cleveland Spiders	1899	NL	55	3	48	4	.091	20	134	.130	.171
Milwaukee Grays	1878	NL	20	2	18	0	.100	15	45	.246	.320
Cincinnati Reds	1880	NL	28	2	24	2	.107	21	59	.253	.299
Brooklyn Eckfords	1872	NA	27	3	24	0	.111	3	26	.103	.138

Since that is so heavy with nineteenth century teams, here are the worst from 1900 on:

Team	Yr	Lg	#Series	Series W	Series L	Series Tied	PCT	W	L	PCT	Exp Pct
Philadelphia Athletics	1916	AL	41	4	33	4	.146	36	117	.234	.267
Philadelphia Athletics	1915	AL	42	5	34	3	.155	43	109	.279	.290
Philadelphia Phillies	1945	NL	47	5	37	5	.160	46	108	.299	.303
Detroit Tigers	2003	AL	52	8	43	1	.163	43	119	.265	.305
Washington Senators	1909	AL	45	4	34	7	.167	42	110	.269	.269
Washington Senators	1904	AL	46	4	34	8	.174	38	113	.242	.275
Boston Braves	1935	NL	47	6	35	6	.191	38	115	.248	.327
Boston Red Sox	1926	AL	49	6	36	7	.194	46	107	.299	.326
New York Mets	1962	NL	54	8	41	5	.194	40	120	.248	.313
St. Louis Browns	1910	AL	48	7	36	5	.198	47	107	.297	.286
Boston Red Sox	1932	AL	49	7	36	6	.204	43	111	.279	.293

I also broke down the data by sweeps. Here are the hardest teams in baseball history to sweep:

Team	Yr	Lg	#Series	Series W	Series L	Series Tied	PCT	W	L	PCT	Exp Pct	Times Swept	%
Chicago White Stockings	1880	NL	28	25	3	0	.893	67	17	.779	.725	0	0.0%
Milwaukee Brewers	1884	UA	3	2	0	1	.833	8	4	.667	.693	0	0.0%
Philadelphia Athletics	1890	PL	43	19	14	10	.558	68	63	.515	.544	0	0.0%
New York Giants	1904	NL	52	37	7	8	.788	106	47	.671	.694	0	0.0%
Cleveland Indians	1921	AL	44	25	8	11	.693	94	60	.610	.617	0	0.0%
St. Louis Cardinals	1943	NL	42	29	4	9	.798	105	49	.669	.658	0	0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays	1992	AL	52	27	17	8	.596	96	66	.593	.561	0	0.0%
Philadelphia Phillies	1993	NL	52	30	16	6	.635	97	65	.599	.577	0	0.0%
San Diego Padres	1998	NL	54	27	13	14	.630	98	64	.605	.575	0	0.0%
Atlanta Braves	2002	NL	52	32	11	9	.702	101	59	.627	.602	0	0.0%
Atlanta Braves	2004	NL	52	29	18	5	.606	96	66	.593	.583	0	0.0%
New York Yankees	1936	AL	57	34	10	13	.711	102	51	.658	.666	1	1.8%
Houston Astros	1998	NL	57	33	12	12	.684	102	60	.630	.652	1	1.8%
San Francisco Giants	1989	NL	54	27	19	8	.574	92	70	.568	.569	1	1.9%
San Francisco Giants	2002	NL	54	26	16	12	.593	95	66	.586	.608	1	1.9%
Boston Red Sox	1979	AL	53	24	17	12	.566	91	69	.569	.576	1	1.9%
Seattle Mariners	2001	AL	53	43	6	4	.849	116	46	.716	.672	1	1.9%
Anaheim Angels	2002	AL	53	29	16	8	.623	99	63	.611	.625	1	1.9%
Toronto Blue Jays	1983	AL	52	26	16	10	.596	89	73	.549	.541	1	1.9%
Atlanta Braves	2000	NL	52	31	17	4	.635	95	67	.586	.557	1	1.9%
New York Yankees	2002	AL	52	35	10	7	.740	103	58	.640	.613	1	1.9%
Chicago Cubs	2003	NL	52	26	21	5	.548	88	74	.543	.527	1	1.9%
Seattle Mariners	2003	AL	52	28	19	5	.587	93	69	.574	.600	1	1.9%
St. Louis Cardinals	2005	NL	52	31	12	9	.683	100	62	.617	.608	1	1.9%

Here are the easiest to sweep:

Team	Yr	Lg	#Series	Series W	Series L	Series Tied	PCT	W	L	PCT	Exp Pct	Times Swept	%
Washington Nationals	1872	NA	11	0	11	0	.000	0	11	.000	.170	11	100.0%
Baltimore Marylands	1873	NA	3	0	3	0	.000	0	6	.000	.038	3	100.0%
Brooklyn Atlantics	1875	NA	34	2	32	0	.059	2	42	.045	.100	32	94.1%
Elizabeth Resolutes	1873	NA	20	1	19	0	.050	2	21	.087	.115	18	90.0%
Brooklyn Eckfords	1872	NA	27	3	24	0	.111	3	26	.103	.138	24	88.9%
Keokuk Westerns	1875	NA	8	0	7	1	.063	1	12	.077	.227	7	87.5%
Philadelphia Centennials	1875	NA	12	2	10	0	.167	2	12	.143	.224	10	83.3%
Rockford Forest Citys	1871	NA	21	3	17	1	.167	4	21	.160	.402	17	81.0%
Middletown Mansfields	1872	NA	20	4	16	0	.200	5	19	.208	.302	16	80.0%
New Haven Elm Citys	1875	NA	33	3	28	2	.121	7	40	.149	.175	26	78.8%
Washington Nationals	1875	NA	14	2	11	1	.179	5	23	.179	.109	11	78.6%
Washington Olympics	1872	NA	9	2	7	0	.222	2	7	.222	.149	7	77.8%
Washington Blue Legs	1873	NA	32	7	24	1	.234	8	31	.205	.272	24	75.0%
St. Louis Red Stockings	1875	NA	12	2	9	1	.208	4	15	.211	.141	9	75.0%

Now, without nineteenth century bums:

Team	Yr	Lg	#Series	Series W	Series L	Series Tied	PCT	W	L	PCT	Exp Pct	Times Swept	%
New York Mets	1962	NL	54	8	41	5	.194	40	120	.248	.313	28	51.9%
Philadelphia Athletics	1919	AL	49	8	35	6	.224	36	104	.257	.292	25	51.0%
Philadelphia Phillies	1941	NL	58	7	39	12	.224	43	111	.277	.301	27	46.6%
Philadelphia Athletics	1946	AL	56	11	39	6	.250	49	105	.316	.387	26	46.4%
Philadelphia Phillies	1942	NL	58	10	41	7	.233	42	109	.278	.256	26	44.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates	1952	NL	56	5	37	14	.214	42	112	.271	.312	25	44.6%
Pittsburgh Pirates	1954	NL	57	9	33	15	.289	53	101	.344	.318	25	43.9%
Philadelphia Phillies	1928	NL	48	8	35	5	.219	43	109	.283	.336	21	43.8%
Philadelphia Phillies	1961	NL	56	11	33	12	.304	47	107	.303	.362	24	42.9%
Philadelphia Phillies	1939	NL	56	12	36	8	.286	45	106	.296	.310	24	42.9%
St. Louis Browns	1939	AL	56	9	37	10	.250	43	111	.276	.347	24	42.9%
Boston Red Sox	1932	AL	49	7	36	6	.204	43	111	.279	.293	21	42.9%
Philadelphia Phillies	1938	NL	57	8	39	10	.228	45	105	.298	.315	24	42.1%
Boston Red Sox	1927	AL	48	11	33	4	.271	51	103	.331	.341	20	41.7%
Washington Senators	1904	AL	46	4	34	8	.174	38	113	.242	.275	19	41.3%
Boston Braves	1922	NL	49	8	32	9	.255	53	100	.344	.357	20	40.8%
San Diego Padres	1969	NL	54	11	32	11	.306	52	110	.321	.299	22	40.7%
New York Mets	1965	NL	54	12	34	8	.296	50	112	.305	.318	22	40.7%
Boston Braves	1935	NL	47	6	35	6	.191	38	115	.248	.327	19	40.4%
Detroit Tigers	2003	AL	52	8	43	1	.163	43	119	.265	.305	21	40.4%
Chicago White Sox	1948	AL	57	12	36	9	.289	51	101	.331	.335	23	40.4%
Cincinnati Reds	1901	NL	55	15	30	10	.364	52	87	.366	.334	22	40.0%

Here's the other end of the spectrum, the teams most likely to sweep their opponent:

Team	Yr	Lg	#Series	Series W	Series L	Series Tied	PCT	W	L	PCT	Exp Pct	Sweeps	%
Boston Red Stockings	1875	NA	59	49	4	6	.881	71	8	.866	.835	49	83.1%
Boston Red Stockings	1872	NA	41	33	7	1	.817	39	8	.813	.810	32	78.0%
Philadelphia Athletics	1871	NA	27	20	7	0	.741	21	7	.750	.653	20	74.1%
Philadelphia Whites	1873	NA	53	36	17	0	.679	36	17	.679	.627	36	67.9%
Philadelphia Athletics	1872	NA	43	29	13	1	.686	30	14	.638	.689	29	67.4%
Philadelphia Athletics	1875	NA	55	37	13	5	.718	53	20	.688	.733	37	67.3%
Boston Red Stockings	1874	NA	50	34	9	7	.750	52	18	.732	.740	33	66.0%
Boston Red Stockings	1871	NA	29	19	10	0	.655	20	10	.645	.625	19	65.5%
Boston Red Stockings	1873	NA	46	31	11	4	.717	43	16	.717	.704	30	65.2%
Chicago White Stockings	1871	NA	25	16	8	1	.660	19	9	.679	.602	16	64.0%
Providence Grays	1884	NL	60	40	9	11	.758	84	28	.737	.728	37	61.7%
New York Giants	1885	NL	55	38	4	13	.809	85	27	.759	.758	33	60.0%
Baltimore Canaries	1873	NA	50	30	18	2	.620	34	22	.596	.657	30	60.0%

Now without the 19th century outliers:

Team	Yr	Lg	#Series	Series W	Series L	Series Tied	PCT	W	L	PCT	Exp Pct	Sweeps	%
Pittsburgh Pirates	1909	NL	53	37	9	7	.764	110	42	.714	.694	27	50.9%
Cleveland Indians	1954	AL	56	37	13	6	.714	111	43	.712	.672	27	48.2%
Chicago Cubs	1906	NL	49	37	6	6	.816	116	36	.748	.755	23	46.9%
Pittsburgh Pirates	1902	NL	56	41	7	8	.804	103	36	.725	.738	26	46.4%
New York Yankees	1939	AL	55	40	10	5	.773	106	45	.697	.734	24	43.6%
Philadelphia Athletics	1931	AL	55	39	12	4	.745	107	45	.699	.640	24	43.6%
Brooklyn Dodgers	1953	NL	58	36	13	9	.698	105	49	.677	.645	25	43.1%
New York Giants	1904	NL	52	37	7	8	.788	106	47	.671	.694	22	42.3%
Brooklyn Dodgers	1941	NL	59	37	12	10	.712	100	54	.637	.642	24	40.7%
Brooklyn Dodgers	1942	NL	64	41	16	7	.695	104	50	.671	.665	26	40.6%
New York Yankees	1942	AL	57	33	13	11	.675	103	51	.669	.698	23	40.4%
Philadelphia Athletics	1929	AL	53	35	11	7	.726	104	46	.689	.668	21	39.6%
Pittsburgh Pirates	1901	NL	56	31	14	11	.652	90	49	.643	.665	22	39.3%
New York Giants	1912	NL	46	31	14	1	.685	103	48	.669	.661	18	39.1%
New York Yankees	1953	AL	57	37	10	10	.737	99	52	.656	.668	22	38.6%
New York Yankees	1932	AL	50	38	6	6	.820	107	47	.686	.644	19	38.0%
New York Giants	1951	NL	58	33	16	9	.647	98	59	.624	.589	22	37.9%
New York Yankees	1938	AL	58	34	13	11	.681	99	53	.631	.637	22	37.9%
New York Yankees	1927	AL	48	31	6	11	.760	110	44	.710	.709	18	37.5%
St. Louis Cardinals	1941	NL	59	31	14	14	.644	97	56	.626	.599	22	37.3%

Finally, here are the teams least likely to sweep:

Team	Yr	Lg	#Series	Series W	Series L	Series Tied	PCT	W	L	PCT	Exp Pct	Sweeps	%
Arizona Diamondbacks	2004	NL	52	13	36	3	.279	51	111	.315	.333	0	0.0%
Kansas City Royals	2004	AL	52	16	30	6	.365	58	104	.358	.397	0	0.0%
Seattle Mariners	1983	AL	52	13	33	6	.308	60	102	.370	.374	0	0.0%
Washington Senators	1944	AL	43	15	20	8	.442	64	90	.416	.448	0	0.0%
Boston Braves	1944	NL	45	11	24	10	.356	65	89	.419	.442	0	0.0%
St. Louis Cardinals	1918	NL	36	9	19	8	.361	51	78	.389	.432	0	0.0%
Philadelphia Athletics	1916	AL	41	4	33	4	.146	36	117	.234	.267	0	0.0%
Philadelphia Athletics	1915	AL	42	5	34	3	.155	43	109	.279	.290	0	0.0%
New York Yankees	1913	AL	43	11	22	10	.372	57	94	.373	.395	0	0.0%
Washington Senators	1910	AL	43	14	19	10	.442	66	85	.420	.457	0	0.0%
Boston Americans	1906	AL	47	11	31	5	.287	49	105	.316	.316	0	0.0%
St. Louis Browns	1897	NL	46	4	35	7	.163	29	102	.220	.246	0	0.0%
Brooklyn Gladiators	1890	AA	28	4	18	6	.250	26	73	.260	.325	0	0.0%
Wilmington Quicksteps	1884	UA	5	0	5	0	.000	2	16	.111	.103	0	0.0%
St. Paul White Caps	1884	UA	4	0	2	2	.250	2	6	.222	.170	0	0.0%
Detroit Wolverines	1884	NL	33	3	24	6	.182	28	84	.246	.285	0	0.0%
Altoona Mountain City	1884	UA	7	1	5	1	.214	6	19	.240	.168	0	0.0%
Milwaukee Brewers	1884	UA	3	2	0	1	.833	8	4	.667	.693	0	0.0%
Baltimore Orioles	1882	AA	23	3	16	4	.217	19	54	.257	.238	0	0.0%
Cleveland Blues	1879	NL	27	2	20	5	.167	27	55	.329	.341	0	0.0%
Milwaukee Grays	1878	NL	20	2	18	0	.100	15	45	.246	.320	0	0.0%
Keokuk Westerns	1875	NA	8	0	7	1	.063	1	12	.077	.227	0	0.0%
Baltimore Marylands	1873	NA	3	0	3	0	.000	0	6	.000	.038	0	0.0%
Washington Nationals	1872	NA	11	0	11	0	.000	0	11	.000	.170	0	0.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates	1952	NL	56	5	37	14	.214	42	112	.271	.312	1	1.8%
St. Louis Browns	1939	AL	56	9	37	10	.250	43	111	.276	.347	1	1.8%

Comments

2007-04-24 11:09:32

1. Cliff Corcoran

Is it me or do the 1998 Yankees not show up on any of these charts. If so, that's kind of fascinating, no?

2007-04-24 11:29:47

2. rbj

Just thinking the same thing, especially for series won.

2007-04-24 14:25:28

3. dianagramr

The 2001 Mariners show up twice on the same chart ....

(I'm confused)

2007-04-24 19:09:04

4. Mike Carminati

3 Ah, no they don't. They show up in two separate tables.

1 The '98 Yankees just missed: 58 series, 40 won, 7 lost, and 11 tied for a .784 series winning PCT. They were swept twice (or 3.4% of the time) and swept their opponents 21 times (36.2% of series).

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