Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Wednesday was kind of a bad day for the Phils.
Its started with Charlie Manuel making headlines due to an altercation with local radio "personality" Howard Eskin. Next, came opening-day starter Brett Myers' move to the bullpen, a highly questionable and disputed move. Then, reigning NL MVP Ryan Howard pulled up lame in the tenth inning running out a grounder and was listed as day-to-day. Howard had to remain in the game for the final three and one-half innings even with the injury since there were no men left on the Phillie bench. Finally, came the extra-inning loss to the NL East doormats, the Nats, which dumped the Phils into sole possession of last place not only in the East but in the entire National League.
There was little promise that Thursday would be any better. Howard was indeed out of the lineup. His shoes were to be filled by Greg Dobbs, a little know utility man with Seattle for parts of three seasons, who surprising made the Phillies roster due to a hot spring bat and a lack of depth and owned just 251 plate appearances and 2 home runs for his career. The team now faced a series sweep at the hands of the lowly Nats. Manuel's performance, job status, and sanity were being questioned throughout the Philadelphia and national media.
Then Jamie Moyer took the mound, quieting the Nationals' bats. He took a shutout into the ninth and, after surviving a little bases-loaded scare upon being replaced by shaky and rapidly aging closer Tom Gordon, won his second game of the year.
When the Phils quietly picked up Moyer for two minor prospects after the trade deadline last year, I thought it was an odd move. Moyer was 43 and was struggling with the last-place M's. He was 6-12 with a 4.39 ERA. This was after three highly mediocre seasons following his great 21-7 2003 All-Star season. He seemed ready to retire. It was an odd move for a team that was concentrating on youth or at least what passes for youth in Philadelphia, 26- to28-year-olds. I thought maybe the Phils were acquiring him as a potential replacement for undistinguished pitching coach Rich Dubee in 2007.
Moyer pitched well willing five of his eight starts with an ERA around four and was rewarded with what seemed at the time a gratuitous two-year extension. Moyer has been a calming influence on the staff so far in 2007 with a 2-1 record and a 3.05 ERA. One could make a good argument for his being the team MVP to this point in the season, surely a dubious honor on a 4-10 team, but there it is.
If he can continue to lull offenses, he projects to twenty wins. I know, it's early. Tuffy Rhodes once project to 78 homers mid-April one season. But that in itself is a remarkable feat for a pitcher who looked like he was ready to be stuck by a fork last August. (Besides what else is there to talk about from yesterday's game? Dobbs going 0-for-5?)
It would be Moyer's third twenty-win season, and he would become the oldest twenty-game winner by a couple of years. Bedsides twenty wins would put him in the mid-200s for wins, which starts to make a somewhat compelling argument for his going into the Hall of Fame. Twenty wins would tie him for 58th all time with Hall of Famer Whitey Ford.
Don't get me wrong: I don't think he has a strong argument, but he would fall into that near-Hall-worthy group that appear perennially on the writers' ballot but never seem to gain entry, guys like Jack Morris and Tommy John. That's not too bad for a former journeyman who did not become an established starter until age 33.
Let's say he can keep it up and ends up winning twenty games. At 44, he would better the oldest previous twenty-game winner, Warren Spahn, by two years. Here are the oldest to win twenty. Note that Moyer is on the list twice:
Pitcher | Yr | Age | W | L | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | K-9IP |
Warren Spahn | 1963 | 42 | 23 | 7 | 259.7 | 2.60 | 1.12 | 2.08 | 3.54 |
Cy Young | 1908 | 41 | 21 | 11 | 299.0 | 1.26 | 0.89 | 4.05 | 4.52 |
Phil Niekro | 1979 | 40 | 21 | 20 | 342.0 | 3.39 | 1.24 | 1.84 | 5.47 |
Jamie Moyer | 2003 | 40 | 21 | 7 | 215.0 | 3.27 | 1.23 | 1.95 | 5.40 |
Pete Alexander | 1927 | 40 | 21 | 10 | 268.0 | 2.52 | 1.12 | 1.26 | 1.61 |
Cy Young | 1907 | 40 | 21 | 15 | 343.3 | 1.99 | 0.98 | 2.88 | 3.85 |
Warren Spahn | 1961 | 40 | 21 | 13 | 262.7 | 3.02 | 1.14 | 1.80 | 3.94 |
Gaylord Perry | 1978 | 39 | 21 | 6 | 260.7 | 2.73 | 1.18 | 2.33 | 5.32 |
Eddie Plank | 1915 | 39 | 21 | 11 | 268.3 | 2.08 | 0.99 | 2.72 | 4.93 |
Warren Spahn | 1960 | 39 | 21 | 10 | 267.7 | 3.50 | 1.23 | 2.08 | 5.18 |
Early Wynn | 1959 | 39 | 22 | 10 | 255.7 | 3.17 | 1.26 | 1.50 | 6.30 |
Warren Spahn | 1959 | 38 | 21 | 15 | 292.0 | 2.96 | 1.21 | 2.04 | 4.41 |
Spud Chandler | 1946 | 38 | 20 | 8 | 257.3 | 2.10 | 1.13 | 1.53 | 4.83 |
Roger Clemens | 2001 | 38 | 20 | 3 | 220.3 | 3.51 | 1.26 | 2.96 | 8.70 |
Randy Johnson | 2002 | 38 | 24 | 5 | 260.0 | 2.32 | 1.03 | 4.70 | 11.56 |
Jamie Moyer | 2001 | 38 | 20 | 6 | 209.7 | 3.43 | 1.10 | 2.70 | 5.11 |
He would also enjoy the most valuable season for a pitcher over 43 ever. Here are the best seasons (by Pitching Win Shares) after turning 44:
Age | Pitch WS | Player | YR | W | L | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | K-9IP |
44 | 17.50 | Jack Quinn | 1928 | 18 | 7 | 211.3 | 2.90 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.83 |
45 | 15.30 | Phil Niekro | 1984 | 16 | 8 | 215.7 | 3.09 | 1.37 | 1.79 | 5.68 |
45 | 13.40 | Satchel Paige | 1952 | 12 | 10 | 138.0 | 3.07 | 1.25 | 1.60 | 5.93 |
44 | 13.40 | Nolan Ryan | 1991 | 12 | 6 | 173.0 | 2.91 | 1.01 | 2.82 | 10.56 |
44 | 13.40 | Hoyt Wilhelm | 1967 | 8 | 3 | 89.0 | 1.31 | 1.03 | 2.24 | 7.69 |
46 | 13.00 | Hoyt Wilhelm | 1969 | 7 | 7 | 78.0 | 2.19 | 0.92 | 3.05 | 7.73 |
44 | 12.60 | Tommy John | 1987 | 13 | 6 | 187.7 | 4.03 | 1.38 | 1.34 | 3.02 |
45 | 11.80 | Hoyt Wilhelm | 1968 | 4 | 4 | 93.7 | 1.73 | 0.99 | 3.00 | 6.92 |
46 | 11.30 | Satchel Paige | 1953 | 3 | 9 | 117.3 | 3.53 | 1.30 | 1.31 | 3.91 |
47 | 10.80 | Hoyt Wilhelm | 1970 | 6 | 5 | 82.0 | 3.40 | 1.40 | 1.62 | 7.46 |
46 | 10.30 | Phil Niekro | 1985 | 16 | 12 | 220.0 | 4.09 | 1.47 | 1.24 | 6.10 |
47 | 9.80 | Jack Quinn | 1931 | 5 | 4 | 64.3 | 2.66 | 1.38 | 1.04 | 3.50 |
45 | 9.70 | Jack Quinn | 1929 | 11 | 9 | 161.0 | 3.97 | 1.37 | 1.05 | 2.29 |
44 | 9.30 | Phil Niekro | 1983 | 11 | 10 | 201.7 | 3.97 | 1.57 | 1.22 | 5.71 |
47 | 8.90 | Phil Niekro | 1986 | 11 | 11 | 210.3 | 4.32 | 1.60 | 0.85 | 3.47 |
45 | 8.30 | Charlie Hough | 1993 | 9 | 16 | 204.3 | 4.27 | 1.34 | 1.77 | 5.55 |
Of course, it's more likely that Moyer will wilt under the summer heat, but c'mon, something has to go right with this team at some point. Doesn't it?
or we could talk about the 0-11 hurting that Utley and Rollins put on my fantasy team during that extra-inning game. I know it's still early but...when did Chase Utley turn into Pat Burrell??
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