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The 500-500 Club
2003-06-25 00:15
by Mike Carminati

Barry Bonds founded the 500 home run/500 stolen base club yesterday. Actually, he joined the 633-500 club, but 500-500 sounds nicer.

However, he still trails Rickey Henderson in total home runs and stolen bases. Here are the all-time leaders:

Rickey Henderson29514031698
Barry Bonds6335001133
Lou Brock1499381087
Ty Cobb1178921009
Willie Mays660338998
Hank Aaron755240995
Tim Raines170808978
Joe Morgan268689957
Billy Hamilton40912952
Babe Ruth714123837
Honus Wagner101722823
Max Carey70738808
Bobby Bonds332461793
Eddie Collins47744791
Reggie Jackson563228791
Frank Robinson586204790
Vince Coleman28752780
Arlie Latham27739766
Andre Dawson438314752
Cesar Cedeno199550749
Sammy Sosa506233739
Paul Molitor234504738
Bert Campaneris79649728
Mike Schmidt548174722
Tom Brown64657721
Davey Lopes155557712
Willie Wilson41668709

What is cool about Bonds is how evenly distributed the dingers and steals are. Here are the most evenly distributed players (two-to-one or less with either one) with at least 500 combined steals/homers:

Willie Mays66033899851.21%
Ellis Burks35117953051.00%
Gary Sheffield36119355453.46%
Joe Carter39623162758.33%
George Brett31720151863.41%
Larry Walker34222056264.33%
Darryl Strawberry33522155665.97%
Andre Dawson43831475271.69%
Ron Gant32124356475.70%
Jimmy Wynn29122551677.32%
Barry Bonds633500113378.99%
Don Baylor33828562384.32%
Robin Yount251271522107.97%
Kirk Gibson255284539111.37%
Vada Pinson256305561119.14%
Ryne Sandberg282344626121.99%
Eric Davis282349631123.76%
Steve Finley236285521120.76%
Bobby Bonds332461793138.86%
Brady Anderson210315525150.00%
Devon White208346554166.35%
Amos Otis193341534176.68%
Craig Biggio204386590189.22%
Barry Larkin189376565198.94%

So who will join Bonds in the new club in the near future? It doesn't look promising. Here are the players under 32 years old who have at least 300 combined steals and taters:

Andruw Jones20311631925
Alex Rodriguez31616748326
Vladimir Guerrero21711933626
Johnny Damon9422832228
Shawn Green24213037229
Chipper Jones26511538030
Ray Durham11523134630
Manny Ramirez3262935530
Ryan Klesko2397931831
Jim Thome3511836931
Raul Mondesi25322247531

The best bets appear to be the youngest, A-Rod and Andruw Jones, but they have already stopped stealing. Guerrero is behind them but given his 2002 steal total may be the best bet. He would still need 10 years as a 30-40 man to do it. Other than that, Mondesi appears to be the only one with the proper distribution of steals and homers and he is still stealing bases, but he would need to be a 30-30 man until he was 40 to break into the club.

My prediction is that unless baseball has a severe shift back to the pre-1993 high-scoring days, it will be hard for a player to get the requisite steals. Bonds is lucky in that he played in both eras. He has not had a 30-steal season since 1997 at the age of 32.

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