Thou met’st with things dying, I with things new-born.

–William “Author” Shakespeare, The Winter’s Tale

The 1-5 Phils roll into Shea today for a three-game series that suddenly appears to be either a season marker or season breaker.  Given all of the balloon juice that Jimmie Rollins directed the Mets way during spring training and the teams divergent directions, the Phils are under Alberto Gonzalez-type pressure.   By next Monday, they will have played five games against the Mets.

Should the Phils’ losing ways continue, and they get swept by the Mets, they will have done something that just four other Phillies teams have ever done, started the season 1-8.  No Phillie team has ever started 0-9.  The average winning percentage for those four teams is .358, which translates into a 58-104 record for the season:

I ran the various scenarios for the outcome of the series from a Mets sweep to a Phils sweep and given the attendant Phillies record for each, came up with the historical average for teams with those records. I also through in the historical average for 1-5 teams, the Phils current record:

Only one team with a 1-8 record has ever made it to the postseason (the ’95 Reds, who finished 85-59). No 1-8 teams have ever gone on to win their league championship, let alone a World Series ring. Things do improve for 2-7 to 4-5 teams, but if historical averages hold, those teams still have no better than a one-in-twenty shot of making the postseason.

So what’s the bottom line? The Phils need to win a game in this series or their season is in serious jeopardy.  That’s not much of a surprise, but no matter what the outcome—even a Phils’ sweep—especially with the Braves playing the Ignominious Nats (they moved there from DC—didn’t you hear?), the best that can be expected is that the Phils get back into some semblance of the division race.  The worst is that they dig an historically deep hole.

I expect that Charlie “I Need a Friggin’” Manuel will go with the hot players like he did from the seventh inning on yesterday.  Jayson Werth might get more time in right field, Victorino might spell Rowand in center, and Greg “Don’t Call Me Lou” Dobbs might have to replace the defensive abyss of Wes Helms at third. I’m not saying that I would necessarily make those changes, but Manuel has shown signs of desperation (Howard’s batting third; Howard’s not batting third after two games; pulling Barajas because of an 0-for-8 slump).  If the Phils bats continue to struggle, expect Manuel to go to whatever hot bat he can find.  I don’t really blame him, but a week into the season is a bit early for knee-jerk reactions.  I can’t wait to see Jimy Williams’ first lineup the night he replaces Manuel.