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AngelsArc

2003-09-23 00:18

by Mike Carminati

I'm no angel, but I've spread my wings a bit.

-Mae West

Yesterday we looked at how the Angels have fallen from baseball grace, but what does the future hold for the team? Was 2002 just an anomaly or is 2003 just a bump in the road for a team full of young players?

Anaheim will have between 20 and 26 fewer wins this season than last. How do teams, who have lost 20 to 26 wins from season one to season two, perform in season 3 historically anyway? Is it too much to overcome?

Here are all the teams whose win totals full by 20 to 26 games from season one to season with their performance in season three:

Team	Yr 1	W	L	Yr 2	W	L	Yr 3	W	L
Chicago White Stockings	1876	52	14	1877	26	33	1878	30	30
Buffalo Bisons	1879	46	32	1880	24	58	1881	45	38
Baltimore Orioles	1884	63	43	1885	41	68	1886	48	83
Baltimore Orioles	1887	77	58	1888	57	80	1889	70	65
Louisville Colonels	1888	48	87	1889	27	111	1890	88	44
New York Giants	1889	83	43	1890	63	68	1891	71	61
Brooklyn Bridegrooms	1890	86	43	1891	61	76	1892	95	59
Cincinnati Reds	1890	77	55	1891	56	81	1892	82	68
Cleveland Spiders	1892	93	56	1893	73	55	1894	68	61
New York Giants	1894	88	44	1895	66	65	1896	64	67
Cincinnati Reds	1899	83	67	1900	62	77	1901	52	87
Detroit Tigers	1901	74	61	1902	52	83	1903	65	71
St. Louis Cardinals	1901	76	64	1902	56	78	1903	43	94
New York Highlanders	1904	92	59	1905	71	78	1906	90	61
New York Highlanders	1906	90	61	1907	70	78	1908	51	103
Philadelphia Athletics	1907	88	57	1908	68	85	1909	95	58
St. Louis Browns	1908	83	69	1909	61	89	1910	47	107
Washington Senators	1908	67	85	1909	42	110	1910	66	85
Pittsburgh Pirates	1909	110	42	1910	86	67	1911	85	69
Detroit Tigers	1911	89	65	1912	69	84	1913	66	87
New York Highlanders	1911	76	76	1912	50	102	1913	57	94
Boston Red Sox	1912	105	47	1913	79	71	1914	91	62
Brooklyn Robins	1916	94	60	1917	70	81	1918	57	69
St. Louis Browns	1916	79	75	1917	57	97	1918	58	64
Detroit Tigers	1917	78	75	1918	55	71	1919	80	60
Boston Braves	1921	79	74	1922	53	100	1923	54	100
Boston Red Sox	1924	67	87	1925	47	105	1926	46	107
Brooklyn Robins	1924	92	62	1925	68	85	1926	71	82
New York Yankees	1924	89	63	1925	69	85	1926	91	63
St. Louis Browns	1925	82	71	1926	62	92	1927	59	94
Cleveland Indians	1926	88	66	1927	66	87	1928	62	92
Chicago White Sox	1937	86	68	1938	65	83	1939	85	69
Boston Red Sox	1942	93	59	1943	68	84	1944	77	77
Brooklyn Dodgers	1942	104	50	1943	81	72	1944	63	91
Washington Senators	1943	84	69	1944	64	90	1945	87	67
Philadelphia Athletics	1944	72	82	1945	52	98	1946	49	105
Boston Red Sox	1946	104	50	1947	83	71	1948	96	59
Detroit Tigers	1950	95	59	1951	73	81	1952	50	104
Detroit Tigers	1951	73	81	1952	50	104	1953	60	94
Pittsburgh Pirates	1951	64	90	1952	42	112	1953	50	104
New York Giants	1952	92	62	1953	70	84	1954	97	57
Philadelphia Athletics	1952	79	75	1953	59	95	1954	51	103
Pittsburgh Pirates	1960	95	59	1961	75	79	1962	93	68
New York Yankees	1964	99	63	1965	77	85	1966	70	89
Baltimore Orioles	1966	97	63	1967	76	85	1968	91	71
Los Angeles Dodgers	1966	95	67	1967	73	89	1968	76	86
Chicago White Sox	1967	89	73	1968	67	95	1969	68	94
Cleveland Indians	1968	86	75	1969	62	99	1970	76	86
Cincinnati Reds	1970	102	60	1971	79	83	1972	95	59
Minnesota Twins	1970	98	64	1971	74	86	1972	77	77
Baltimore Orioles	1971	101	57	1972	80	74	1973	97	65
San Francisco Giants	1971	90	72	1972	69	86	1973	88	74
Atlanta Braves	1974	88	74	1975	67	94	1976	70	92
Montreal Expos	1975	75	87	1976	55	107	1977	75	87
New York Mets	1976	86	76	1977	64	98	1978	66	96
Oakland Athletics	1976	87	74	1977	63	98	1978	69	93
California Angels	1979	88	74	1980	65	95	1981	51	59
Boston Red Sox	1980	83	77	1981	59	49	1982	89	73
Chicago Cubs	1980	64	98	1981	38	65	1982	73	89
Cincinnati Reds	1980	89	73	1981	66	42	1982	61	101
Detroit Tigers	1980	84	78	1981	60	49	1982	83	79
Milwaukee Brewers	1980	86	76	1981	62	47	1982	95	67
New York Mets	1980	67	95	1981	41	62	1982	65	97
California Angels	1982	93	69	1983	70	92	1984	81	81
Chicago White Sox	1983	99	63	1984	74	88	1985	85	77
Milwaukee Brewers	1983	87	75	1984	67	94	1985	71	90
Detroit Tigers	1984	104	58	1985	84	77	1986	87	75
Los Angeles Dodgers	1985	95	67	1986	73	89	1987	73	89
St. Louis Cardinals	1985	101	61	1986	79	82	1987	95	67
Cleveland Indians	1986	84	78	1987	61	101	1988	78	84
Houston Astros	1986	96	66	1987	76	86	1988	82	80
Cleveland Indians	1990	77	85	1991	57	105	1992	76	86
Milwaukee Brewers	1992	92	70	1993	69	93	1994	53	62
Pittsburgh Pirates	1992	96	66	1993	75	87	1994	53	61
San Diego Padres	1992	82	80	1993	61	101	1994	47	70
Baltimore Orioles	1993	85	77	1994	63	49	1995	71	73
Boston Red Sox	1993	80	82	1994	54	61	1995	86	58
California Angels	1993	71	91	1994	47	68	1995	78	67
Kansas City Royals	1993	84	78	1994	64	51	1995	70	74
Los Angeles Dodgers	1993	81	81	1994	58	56	1995	78	66
Montreal Expos	1993	94	68	1994	74	40	1995	66	78
Pittsburgh Pirates	1993	75	87	1994	53	61	1995	58	86
Chicago Cubs	1998	90	73	1999	67	95	2000	65	97
San Diego Padres	1998	98	64	1999	74	88	2000	76	86
Houston Astros	1999	97	65	2000	72	90	2001	93	69
Texas Rangers	1999	95	67	2000	71	91	2001	73	89
Average		85.41	67.58		63.13	81.23		71.34	77.70

On average the improved in the third year by about 8 wins. However, you will note that there are a number of teams whose falloff occurred during a strike year or who just weren't all that good to start with (1990 Indians).

What if we filtered out any team with fewer than 85 wins to find just those clubs who were somewhat comparable to the 2002 Angels? Let's find out (thanks, Mr. Owl):

Team	Yr 1	W	L	Yr 2	W	L	Yr 3	W	L
Brooklyn Bridegrooms	1890	86	43	1891	61	76	1892	95	59
Cleveland Spiders	1892	93	56	1893	73	55	1894	68	61
New York Giants	1894	88	44	1895	66	65	1896	64	67
New York Highlanders	1904	92	59	1905	71	78	1906	90	61
New York Highlanders	1906	90	61	1907	70	78	1908	51	103
Philadelphia Athletics	1907	88	57	1908	68	85	1909	95	58
Pittsburgh Pirates	1909	110	42	1910	86	67	1911	85	69
Detroit Tigers	1911	89	65	1912	69	84	1913	66	87
Boston Red Sox	1912	105	47	1913	79	71	1914	91	62
Brooklyn Robins	1916	94	60	1917	70	81	1918	57	69
Brooklyn Robins	1924	92	62	1925	68	85	1926	71	82
New York Yankees	1924	89	63	1925	69	85	1926	91	63
Cleveland Indians	1926	88	66	1927	66	87	1928	62	92
Chicago White Sox	1937	86	68	1938	65	83	1939	85	69
Boston Red Sox	1942	93	59	1943	68	84	1944	77	77
Brooklyn Dodgers	1942	104	50	1943	81	72	1944	63	91
Boston Red Sox	1946	104	50	1947	83	71	1948	96	59
Detroit Tigers	1950	95	59	1951	73	81	1952	50	104
New York Giants	1952	92	62	1953	70	84	1954	97	57
Pittsburgh Pirates	1960	95	59	1961	75	79	1962	93	68
New York Yankees	1964	99	63	1965	77	85	1966	70	89
Baltimore Orioles	1966	97	63	1967	76	85	1968	91	71
Los Angeles Dodgers	1966	95	67	1967	73	89	1968	76	86
Chicago White Sox	1967	89	73	1968	67	95	1969	68	94
Cleveland Indians	1968	86	75	1969	62	99	1970	76	86
Cincinnati Reds	1970	102	60	1971	79	83	1972	95	59
Minnesota Twins	1970	98	64	1971	74	86	1972	77	77
Baltimore Orioles	1971	101	57	1972	80	74	1973	97	65
San Francisco Giants	1971	90	72	1972	69	86	1973	88	74
Atlanta Braves	1974	88	74	1975	67	94	1976	70	92
New York Mets	1976	86	76	1977	64	98	1978	66	96
Oakland Athletics	1976	87	74	1977	63	98	1978	69	93
California Angels	1979	88	74	1980	65	95	1981	51	59
Cincinnati Reds	1980	89	73	1981	66	42	1982	61	101
Milwaukee Brewers	1980	86	76	1981	62	47	1982	95	67
California Angels	1982	93	69	1983	70	92	1984	81	81
Chicago White Sox	1983	99	63	1984	74	88	1985	85	77
Milwaukee Brewers	1983	87	75	1984	67	94	1985	71	90
Detroit Tigers	1984	104	58	1985	84	77	1986	87	75
Los Angeles Dodgers	1985	95	67	1986	73	89	1987	73	89
St. Louis Cardinals	1985	101	61	1986	79	82	1987	95	67
Houston Astros	1986	96	66	1987	76	86	1988	82	80
Milwaukee Brewers	1992	92	70	1993	69	93	1994	53	62
Pittsburgh Pirates	1992	96	66	1993	75	87	1994	53	61
Baltimore Orioles	1993	85	77	1994	63	49	1995	71	73
Montreal Expos	1993	94	68	1994	74	40	1995	66	78
Chicago Cubs	1998	90	73	1999	67	95	2000	65	97
San Diego Padres	1998	98	64	1999	74	88	2000	76	86
Houston Astros	1999	97	65	2000	72	90	2001	93	69
Texas Rangers	1999	95	67	2000	71	91	2001	73	89
Average		93.52	63.64		71.26	80.96		76.42	76.82

Well those clubs were back to .500 by the third year. That fate would probably land the Angels in the second division in the AL West again (if there such a thing).

Well, maybe we are still shortchanging the Angels. Are the 1976 Mets and A's truly comparable to a championship team? What if we just included those teams that won a World Series in season one?:

Team	Yr 1	W	L	Yr 2	W	L	Yr 3	W	L
Baltimore Orioles	1966	97	63	1967	76	85	1968	91	71
Baltimore Orioles	1971	101	57	1972	80	74	1973	97	65
Boston Red Sox	1912	105	47	1913	79	71	1914	91	62
Brooklyn Bridegrooms	1890	86	43	1891	61	76	1892	95	59
Cincinnati Reds	1970	102	60	1971	79	83	1972	95	59
Detroit Tigers	1984	104	58	1985	84	77	1986	87	75
Pittsburgh Pirates	1909	110	42	1910	86	67	1911	85	69
Pittsburgh Pirates	1960	95	59	1961	75	79	1962	93	68
San Diego Padres	1998	98	64	1999	74	88	2000	76	86
St. Louis Cardinals	1985	101	61	1986	79	82	1987	95	67
		99.9	55.4		77.3	78.2		90.5	68.1

Those teams came back to being very competitive in year three.

Let's pose the question another way: has any team ever come back from a 20-26 game dropoff to win a World Series the next season. Actually, a few have:

Team	Yr 1	W	L	Yr 2	W	L	Yr 3	W	L
Cincinnati Reds	1970	102	60	1971	79	83	1972	95	59
Milwaukee Brewers	1980	86	76	1981	62	47	1982	95	67
New York Giants	1952	92	62	1953	70	84	1954	97	57
St. Louis Cardinals	1985	101	61	1986	79	82	1987	95	67
Average		95.25	64.75		72.5	74		95.5	62.5

Has any gone from World Series champ in year one to 20-26 game worse in year two to World Series champ in year three? Actually, two teams have done it:

Team	Yr 1	W	L	Yr 2	W	L	Yr 3	W	L
Cincinnati Reds	1970	102	60	1971	79	83	1972	95	59
St. Louis Cardinals	1985	101	61	1986	79	82	1987	95	67

So what is ahead for the Angels? Washburn, Lackey, and Ortiz should bounce back to form the core of a decent, fairly young group of starters. Callup Kevin Gregg should get a shot to contribute as well (2-0 with a 3.28 ERA in three starts). They will probably eat the last year of Aaron Sele's contract ($8.5 M, yum!) and the starter Scott Shield experience should come to an end. David Eckstein should bounce back somewhat after a 100-point OPS dropoff this year-Did you notice how many choice Eckstein as their favorite player in 2002? Where are they now? They're probably hanging out with all those people who were huge Journey fans in the early Eighties? (What happened to all those people anyway?) Unfortunately for the Angels, Darrin Erstad is still into them for another three years and $24 M. His .642 OPS in 258 at-bats is lower than his career average (.770) but is not far from his performance in the last three years (.682 in 1999, .691 in 2001, and .702 in 2002). His career year in 2000 (.950 OPS) is fading in the rear-view mirror. Even worse for the Angels this season is the one major offseason acquisition, Eric Owens, has filled in miserably for Erstad (.601 OPS!).

The Angels will be a team defined more by their strengths going into next season. Can their Achilles heel of a rotation turn around next year? Can the weaknesses at short and center by mitigated? Can aging stars Garret Anderson (.668 OPS in September) and Tim Salmon be relied on next season? There are a number of question marks, but there should be no reason why the Angels cannot be competitive in 2004. Depending on what happens this offseason, the AL West may be a four-team race next year (but don't worry-Jayson Stark will still find a way to deny Alex Rodriguez an MVP).

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