Baseball Toaster Mike's Baseball Rants
Help
This is my site with my opinions, but I hope that, like Irish Spring, you like it, too.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Mike's Baseball Rants
Archives

2009
01 

2008
10  09  07 
06  05  04  03 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2004
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2002
12  11  10  09  08  07 
Links to MBBR
AngelsArc
2003-09-23 00:18
by Mike Carminati

I'm no angel, but I've spread my wings a bit.

-Mae West

Yesterday we looked at how the Angels have fallen from baseball grace, but what does the future hold for the team? Was 2002 just an anomaly or is 2003 just a bump in the road for a team full of young players?

Anaheim will have between 20 and 26 fewer wins this season than last. How do teams, who have lost 20 to 26 wins from season one to season two, perform in season 3 historically anyway? Is it too much to overcome?

Here are all the teams whose win totals full by 20 to 26 games from season one to season with their performance in season three:

TeamYr 1WLYr 2WLYr 3WL
Chicago White Stockings187652141877263318783030
Buffalo Bisons187946321880245818814538
Baltimore Orioles188463431885416818864883
Baltimore Orioles188777581888578018897065
Louisville Colonels1888488718892711118908844
New York Giants188983431890636818917161
Brooklyn Bridegrooms189086431891617618929559
Cincinnati Reds189077551891568118928268
Cleveland Spiders189293561893735518946861
New York Giants189488441895666518966467
Cincinnati Reds189983671900627719015287
Detroit Tigers190174611902528319036571
St. Louis Cardinals190176641902567819034394
New York Highlanders190492591905717819069061
New York Highlanders1906906119077078190851103
Philadelphia Athletics190788571908688519099558
St. Louis Browns1908836919096189191047107
Washington Senators1908678519094211019106685
Pittsburgh Pirates1909110421910866719118569
Detroit Tigers191189651912698419136687
New York Highlanders1911767619125010219135794
Boston Red Sox1912105471913797119149162
Brooklyn Robins191694601917708119185769
St. Louis Browns191679751917579719185864
Detroit Tigers191778751918557119198060
Boston Braves19217974192253100192354100
Boston Red Sox19246787192547105192646107
Brooklyn Robins192492621925688519267182
New York Yankees192489631925698519269163
St. Louis Browns192582711926629219275994
Cleveland Indians192688661927668719286292
Chicago White Sox193786681938658319398569
Boston Red Sox194293591943688419447777
Brooklyn Dodgers1942104501943817219446391
Washington Senators194384691944649019458767
Philadelphia Athletics1944728219455298194649105
Boston Red Sox1946104501947837119489659
Detroit Tigers1950955919517381195250104
Detroit Tigers1951738119525010419536094
Pittsburgh Pirates19516490195242112195350104
New York Giants195292621953708419549757
Philadelphia Athletics1952797519535995195451103
Pittsburgh Pirates196095591961757919629368
New York Yankees196499631965778519667089
Baltimore Orioles196697631967768519689171
Los Angeles Dodgers196695671967738919687686
Chicago White Sox196789731968679519696894
Cleveland Indians196886751969629919707686
Cincinnati Reds1970102601971798319729559
Minnesota Twins197098641971748619727777
Baltimore Orioles1971101571972807419739765
San Francisco Giants197190721972698619738874
Atlanta Braves197488741975679419767092
Montreal Expos1975758719765510719777587
New York Mets197686761977649819786696
Oakland Athletics197687741977639819786993
California Angels197988741980659519815159
Boston Red Sox198083771981594919828973
Chicago Cubs198064981981386519827389
Cincinnati Reds1980897319816642198261101
Detroit Tigers198084781981604919828379
Milwaukee Brewers198086761981624719829567
New York Mets198067951981416219826597
California Angels198293691983709219848181
Chicago White Sox198399631984748819858577
Milwaukee Brewers198387751984679419857190
Detroit Tigers1984104581985847719868775
Los Angeles Dodgers198595671986738919877389
St. Louis Cardinals1985101611986798219879567
Cleveland Indians1986847819876110119887884
Houston Astros198696661987768619888280
Cleveland Indians1990778519915710519927686
Milwaukee Brewers199292701993699319945362
Pittsburgh Pirates199296661993758719945361
San Diego Padres1992828019936110119944770
Baltimore Orioles199385771994634919957173
Boston Red Sox199380821994546119958658
California Angels199371911994476819957867
Kansas City Royals199384781994645119957074
Los Angeles Dodgers199381811994585619957866
Montreal Expos199394681994744019956678
Pittsburgh Pirates199375871994536119955886
Chicago Cubs199890731999679520006597
San Diego Padres199898641999748820007686
Houston Astros199997652000729020019369
Texas Rangers199995672000719120017389
Average85.4167.5863.1381.2371.3477.70

On average the improved in the third year by about 8 wins. However, you will note that there are a number of teams whose falloff occurred during a strike year or who just weren't all that good to start with (1990 Indians).

What if we filtered out any team with fewer than 85 wins to find just those clubs who were somewhat comparable to the 2002 Angels? Let's find out (thanks, Mr. Owl):

TeamYr 1WLYr 2WLYr 3WL
Brooklyn Bridegrooms189086431891617618929559
Cleveland Spiders189293561893735518946861
New York Giants189488441895666518966467
New York Highlanders190492591905717819069061
New York Highlanders1906906119077078190851103
Philadelphia Athletics190788571908688519099558
Pittsburgh Pirates1909110421910866719118569
Detroit Tigers191189651912698419136687
Boston Red Sox1912105471913797119149162
Brooklyn Robins191694601917708119185769
Brooklyn Robins192492621925688519267182
New York Yankees192489631925698519269163
Cleveland Indians192688661927668719286292
Chicago White Sox193786681938658319398569
Boston Red Sox194293591943688419447777
Brooklyn Dodgers1942104501943817219446391
Boston Red Sox1946104501947837119489659
Detroit Tigers1950955919517381195250104
New York Giants195292621953708419549757
Pittsburgh Pirates196095591961757919629368
New York Yankees196499631965778519667089
Baltimore Orioles196697631967768519689171
Los Angeles Dodgers196695671967738919687686
Chicago White Sox196789731968679519696894
Cleveland Indians196886751969629919707686
Cincinnati Reds1970102601971798319729559
Minnesota Twins197098641971748619727777
Baltimore Orioles1971101571972807419739765
San Francisco Giants197190721972698619738874
Atlanta Braves197488741975679419767092
New York Mets197686761977649819786696
Oakland Athletics197687741977639819786993
California Angels197988741980659519815159
Cincinnati Reds1980897319816642198261101
Milwaukee Brewers198086761981624719829567
California Angels198293691983709219848181
Chicago White Sox198399631984748819858577
Milwaukee Brewers198387751984679419857190
Detroit Tigers1984104581985847719868775
Los Angeles Dodgers198595671986738919877389
St. Louis Cardinals1985101611986798219879567
Houston Astros198696661987768619888280
Milwaukee Brewers199292701993699319945362
Pittsburgh Pirates199296661993758719945361
Baltimore Orioles199385771994634919957173
Montreal Expos199394681994744019956678
Chicago Cubs199890731999679520006597
San Diego Padres199898641999748820007686
Houston Astros199997652000729020019369
Texas Rangers199995672000719120017389
Average93.5263.6471.2680.9676.4276.82

Well those clubs were back to .500 by the third year. That fate would probably land the Angels in the second division in the AL West again (if there such a thing).

Well, maybe we are still shortchanging the Angels. Are the 1976 Mets and A's truly comparable to a championship team? What if we just included those teams that won a World Series in season one?:

TeamYr 1WLYr 2WLYr 3WL
Baltimore Orioles196697631967768519689171
Baltimore Orioles1971101571972807419739765
Boston Red Sox1912105471913797119149162
Brooklyn Bridegrooms189086431891617618929559
Cincinnati Reds1970102601971798319729559
Detroit Tigers1984104581985847719868775
Pittsburgh Pirates1909110421910866719118569
Pittsburgh Pirates196095591961757919629368
San Diego Padres199898641999748820007686
St. Louis Cardinals1985101611986798219879567
99.955.477.378.290.568.1

Those teams came back to being very competitive in year three.

Let's pose the question another way: has any team ever come back from a 20-26 game dropoff to win a World Series the next season. Actually, a few have:

TeamYr 1WLYr 2WLYr 3WL
Cincinnati Reds1970102601971798319729559
Milwaukee Brewers198086761981624719829567
New York Giants195292621953708419549757
St. Louis Cardinals1985101611986798219879567
Average95.2564.7572.57495.562.5

Has any gone from World Series champ in year one to 20-26 game worse in year two to World Series champ in year three? Actually, two teams have done it:

TeamYr 1WLYr 2WLYr 3WL
Cincinnati Reds1970102601971798319729559
St. Louis Cardinals1985101611986798219879567

So what is ahead for the Angels? Washburn, Lackey, and Ortiz should bounce back to form the core of a decent, fairly young group of starters. Callup Kevin Gregg should get a shot to contribute as well (2-0 with a 3.28 ERA in three starts). They will probably eat the last year of Aaron Sele's contract ($8.5 M, yum!) and the starter Scott Shield experience should come to an end. David Eckstein should bounce back somewhat after a 100-point OPS dropoff this year-Did you notice how many choice Eckstein as their favorite player in 2002? Where are they now? They're probably hanging out with all those people who were huge Journey fans in the early Eighties? (What happened to all those people anyway?) Unfortunately for the Angels, Darrin Erstad is still into them for another three years and $24 M. His .642 OPS in 258 at-bats is lower than his career average (.770) but is not far from his performance in the last three years (.682 in 1999, .691 in 2001, and .702 in 2002). His career year in 2000 (.950 OPS) is fading in the rear-view mirror. Even worse for the Angels this season is the one major offseason acquisition, Eric Owens, has filled in miserably for Erstad (.601 OPS!).

The Angels will be a team defined more by their strengths going into next season. Can their Achilles heel of a rotation turn around next year? Can the weaknesses at short and center by mitigated? Can aging stars Garret Anderson (.668 OPS in September) and Tim Salmon be relied on next season? There are a number of question marks, but there should be no reason why the Angels cannot be competitive in 2004. Depending on what happens this offseason, the AL West may be a four-team race next year (but don't worry-Jayson Stark will still find a way to deny Alex Rodriguez an MVP).


Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.