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Break Up the Hall! (Or At Least The Veterans Committee)
2007-03-06 22:46
by Mike Carminati

Last week's Veterans Committee vote was just the third player election and just the second for executives since the committee was revamped in 2001. And again no one was able to reach the magical 75% threshold and gain admission to the Hall.

It's clear that this system will never bear fruit, or rather Hall of Famers.

The last major-leaguer to be selected by the Veterans was Bill Mazeroski in 2001. That winter the Veterans were reorganized to include all living Hall of Famers and the elections were limited to one every two years for players and one every four for non-players (executives, pioneers, managers, and umps).

Meanwhile, the special Negro Leagues committee last year selected an orgy of 17 players and executives for enshrinement. Many of these selections raised quite a few eyebrows even when not viewed in the context of such a ludicrously immense class.

Yes, this might make the powers that be in Cooperstown a bit reluctant to return to a secret special committee whose voting tabulations are kept private. However, the system and the old-time would be better served if the committee were abolished altogether than to go through the motions with an ineffectual group.

Some are content to sit idly back while the Veterans are ignored. Who knows, maybe that's the ultimate goal for the revamped committee. Besides, what's the end result? Many say it is better to keep these man out than to allow latter-day Tommy McCarthys and Travis Jacksons in.

The basic problem is that there is and always has been two roads to the Hall, both with different election procedures and with wildly divergent standards. To illustrate the overall average for the 198 players selected by either the baseball writers or the veterans (or a special election) is 337.7 Win Shares and have had to wait an average of just over 14 years after becoming eligible to gain election. While the 103 picked by the BBWAA have average almost 380 Win Shares and a wait of over four years, 93 Veterans selections have averaged almost a hundred Win Shares fewer and have waited over 25 years.

Looking at the change over time, the pattern becomes clearer. First, here are the averages per decade for players selected for the Hall in one of the elections during that decade:

Decade Avg Win Shares #players Wait
1930s 503.50 16 1.44
1940s 306.31 29 9.38
1950s 331.00 21 12.76
1960s 336.35 26 21.42
1970s 294.42 36 23.69
1980s 330.93 29 13.07
1990s 341.64 25 15.08
2000s 342.75 16 7.19
2000s-proj 342.75 20 7.19
Avg 337.66 198 14.36

Other than the gluttony of the 1970s, the players have remained pretty consistent since the 1950s in career Win Share average if not waiting period. Next, here are the decade averages for the writers:

Decade Avg Win Shares #playersWait
1930s 546.17 12 1.17
1940s 342.00 8 8.13
1950s 337.13 15 10.13
1960s 365.88 8 7.63
1970s 356.15 13 4.62
1980s 367.83 18 2.39
1990s 375.67 15 0.87
2000s 354.29 14 2.00
2000s-proj 354.29 18 2.00
Avg 379.81 103 4.23

And finally the Veterans Committee:

Decade Avg Win Shares #players Wait
1930s 337.67 3 3.00
1940s 292.71 21 9.86
1950s 315.67 6 19.33
1960s 323.22 18 27.56
1970s 254.18 22 36.27
1980s 270.55 11 30.55
1990s 290.60 10 36.40
2000s 262.00 2 43.50
2000s-proj 262.00 2 43.50
Avg 288.92 93 25.95

Here's what happened: After lowering their standards in the Forties and Fifties, the writers limited their elections and (therefore) their selections in the Sixties while raising their standards slightly. The wait for the players who did go in became shorter then and has continued to shorten. So the writers become pickier but were able to concentrate on a worthy candidate more and more quickly.

Meanwhile, the Veterans alternated decades of high membership and low standards with those of high standards and low membership until, in reaction to the stasis the writers reached in the Fifties, they indulged for two decades on players of lower and lower standards. The membership began to slow, but the standards remained low until the committee was dramatically revamped in 2001.

After 2001, these once leaky faucet (the Veterans Committee) went from a trickle to being completely shut off.

So who cares? Even though we can't correct the past, at least now we are getting players who are truly plaque worthy, right? True, but who is being left out?

Take a look at the table below listing the number of players that were eligible for an election but were not selected even though they exceeded the Hall average for Win Shares (337). Also, listed is the number with 300 Win Shares (a Tropic of Cancer away from the 337-WS equator). Note the numbers were approaching zero around 1980, meaning that all players who met this criterion were the Hall, and have been growing ever since. Sure the standards remain high for the Hall but a number of worthy candidates are being overlooked arbitrarily:<./p>
Yrvoted by>337 WS>300 WS
1936BBWAA3246
1937BBWAA3145
1938BBWAA3145
1939BBWAA2841
1942BBWAA2943
1945BBWAA2944
1946BBWAA1019
1947BBWAA818
1948BBWAA920
1949BBWAA921
1950BBWAA921
1951BBWAA819
1952BBWAA718
1953BBWAA617
1954BBWAA716
1955BBWAA613
1956BBWAA612
1958BBWAA511
1960BBWAA410
1962BBWAA49
1964BBWAA27
1966BBWAA27
1967BBWAA27
1968BBWAA25
1969BBWAA15
1970BBWAA26
1971BBWAA49
1972BBWAA48
1973BBWAA37
1974BBWAA37
1975BBWAA37
1976BBWAA26
1977BBWAA26
1978BBWAA15
1979BBWAA14
1980BBWAA05
1981BBWAA17
1982BBWAA28
1983BBWAA310
1984BBWAA29
1985BBWAA210
1986BBWAA29
1987BBWAA19
1988BBWAA110
1989BBWAA212
1990BBWAA213
1991BBWAA213
1992BBWAA416
1993BBWAA517
1994BBWAA521
1995BBWAA620
1996BBWAA620
1997BBWAA621
1998BBWAA721
1999BBWAA822
2000BBWAA619
2001BBWAA720
2002BBWAA821
2003BBWAA820
2004BBWAA820
2005BBWAA718
2006BBWAA617
2007BBWAA617
1937Centenial3145
1938Centenial3145
1939Old Timers2841
1944Old Timers3045
1945Old Timers2944
1946Old Timers1019
1949Old Timers921
1953Veterans1523
1955Veterans1522
1957Veterans1522
1959Veterans1522
1961Veterans1321
1962Veterans1423
1963Veterans1320
1964Veterans1118
1965Veterans1017
1966Veterans1017
1967Veterans1018
1968Veterans1018
1969Veterans1018
1970Veterans1018
1971Veterans1015
1972Veterans1015
1973Veterans1015
1974Veterans1015
1975Veterans1015
1976Veterans914
1977Veterans914
1978Veterans915
1979Veterans916
1980Veterans916
1981Veterans815
1982Veterans816
1983Veterans816
1984Veterans815
1985Veterans714
1986Veterans714
1987Veterans714
1988Veterans714
1989Veterans714
1990Veterans714
1991Veterans714
1992Veterans714
1993Veterans714
1994Veterans717
1995Veterans717
1996Veterans717
1997Veterans819
1998Veterans718
1999Veterans718
2000Veterans717
2001Veterans718
2002Veterans719
2003Veterans719
2004Veterans720
2005Veterans822
2006Veterans924
2007Veterans924

Comments
2007-03-07 03:57:09
1.   joejoejoe
Can you share the 9 players with more than 337 win shares on their resume?
2007-03-07 18:36:27
2.   Mike Carminati
Here are the players no longer on the BBWAA ballot:

Name, Win Shares, 1st Elig, Last Elig
=====================================
Bill Dahlen, 394, 1936, 1945
Bob Caruthers, 337, 1936, 1945
George Van Haltren, 344, 1936, 1945
Jimmy Sheckard, 339, 1936, 1945
Sherry Magee, 354, 1936, 1945
Tony Mullane, 399, 1936, 1945
Dick Allen, 342, 1983, 1997
Rusty Staub, 358, 1991, 2005
Pete Rose, 547, 1992, 2006

Here are the ones still on the BBWAA:

Darrell Evans, 363, 1995, 2009
Dwight Evans, 347, 1997, 2011
Bert Blyleven, 339, 1998, 2012
Lou Whitaker, 351, 2001, 2015
Andre Dawson, 340, 2002, 2016
Mark McGwire, 343, 2007, 2021

Here are the retired players who are not eligible for the Hall:

Tim Raines, 390, 2008, 2022
Rickey Henderson, 535, 2009, 2023
Barry Larkin, 346, 2010, 2024
Fred McGriff, 341, 2010, 2024
Roberto Alomar, 376, 2010, 2024
Jeff Bagwell, 388, 2011, 2025
Rafael Palmeiro, 395, 2011, 2025

And here are the active ones:

Alex Rodriguez, 343, 2012, 2026
Barry Bonds, 693, 2012, 2026
Craig Biggio, 425, 2012, 2026
Frank Thomas, 384, 2012, 2026
Gary Sheffield, 405, 2012, 2026
Greg Maddux, 381, 2012, 2026
Ken Griffey, 371, 2012, 2026
Manny Ramirez, 339, 2012, 2026
Roger Clemens, 435, 2012, 2026

'Nuff sed?

2007-03-07 20:24:32
3.   Paul White
There's a fairly large hole in your analysis, namely the fact that the BBWAA gets first dibs on who is eligible for election. I think it's fair to say that the 45 players inducted by the BBWAA on the first ballot would have easily been slected by the various incarnations of the Veterans Committee as well. Beyond that, there at at least another dozen players who were not elected on the first ballot, but only because of space limitations in the early years of the voting, general confusion about the voting process, what the Hall of Fame should be, etc. I mean, few would argue that Jimmie Foxx, Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Cy Young, Tris Speaker, etc shouldn't be obvious first-ballot HOFers, but none of them got in one their first try.

So, I looked at the Win Shares average of the two groups of electees, only I took out the 45 first ballot selections, plus the following players who didn't make it on the first try due to various voting issues but are pretty clear first-ballot types:

Pete Alexander
Yogi Berra
Eddie Collins
Joe DiMaggio
Carlton Fisk
Jimmie Foxx
Rogers Hornsby
Nap Lajoie
Eddie Mathews
Mel Ott
Tris Speaker
Cy Young

What I found was that all remaining BBWAA selections averaged 304 Win Shares, while all VC selections averaged 288, That's not a very large margin at all.

In short, while I completely agree that the Veterans Committee hasn't done a very good job, the fact is that the BBWAA isn't much better. Why give them credit for the slam dunks? You, me and a group of 500 other serious baseball fans could have elected the Ty Cobbs, George Bretts and Tom Seavers of the world. Where the BBWAA should be earning their right to vote is in the next tier of selections, and I just don't see where their collective record in that regard is appreciably better than the Veterans Committee that is so deservedly bashed.

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