Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Last week's Veterans Committee vote was just the third player election and just the second for executives since the committee was revamped in 2001. And again no one was able to reach the magical 75% threshold and gain admission to the Hall.
It's clear that this system will never bear fruit, or rather Hall of Famers.
The last major-leaguer to be selected by the Veterans was Bill Mazeroski in 2001. That winter the Veterans were reorganized to include all living Hall of Famers and the elections were limited to one every two years for players and one every four for non-players (executives, pioneers, managers, and umps).
Meanwhile, the special Negro Leagues committee last year selected an orgy of 17 players and executives for enshrinement. Many of these selections raised quite a few eyebrows even when not viewed in the context of such a ludicrously immense class.
Yes, this might make the powers that be in Cooperstown a bit reluctant to return to a secret special committee whose voting tabulations are kept private. However, the system and the old-time would be better served if the committee were abolished altogether than to go through the motions with an ineffectual group.
Some are content to sit idly back while the Veterans are ignored. Who knows, maybe that's the ultimate goal for the revamped committee. Besides, what's the end result? Many say it is better to keep these man out than to allow latter-day Tommy McCarthys and Travis Jacksons in.
The basic problem is that there is and always has been two roads to the Hall, both with different election procedures and with wildly divergent standards. To illustrate the overall average for the 198 players selected by either the baseball writers or the veterans (or a special election) is 337.7 Win Shares and have had to wait an average of just over 14 years after becoming eligible to gain election. While the 103 picked by the BBWAA have average almost 380 Win Shares and a wait of over four years, 93 Veterans selections have averaged almost a hundred Win Shares fewer and have waited over 25 years.
Looking at the change over time, the pattern becomes clearer. First, here are the averages per decade for players selected for the Hall in one of the elections during that decade:
Decade | Avg Win Shares | #players | Wait |
1930s | 503.50 | 16 | 1.44 |
1940s | 306.31 | 29 | 9.38 |
1950s | 331.00 | 21 | 12.76 |
1960s | 336.35 | 26 | 21.42 |
1970s | 294.42 | 36 | 23.69 |
1980s | 330.93 | 29 | 13.07 |
1990s | 341.64 | 25 | 15.08 |
2000s | 342.75 | 16 | 7.19 |
2000s-proj | 342.75 | 20 | 7.19 |
Avg | 337.66 | 198 | 14.36 |
Other than the gluttony of the 1970s, the players have remained pretty consistent since the 1950s in career Win Share average if not waiting period. Next, here are the decade averages for the writers:
Decade | Avg Win Shares | #players | Wait |
1930s | 546.17 | 12 | 1.17 |
1940s | 342.00 | 8 | 8.13 |
1950s | 337.13 | 15 | 10.13 |
1960s | 365.88 | 8 | 7.63 |
1970s | 356.15 | 13 | 4.62 |
1980s | 367.83 | 18 | 2.39 |
1990s | 375.67 | 15 | 0.87 |
2000s | 354.29 | 14 | 2.00 |
2000s-proj | 354.29 | 18 | 2.00 |
Avg | 379.81 | 103 | 4.23 |
And finally the Veterans Committee:
Decade | Avg Win Shares | #players | Wait |
1930s | 337.67 | 3 | 3.00 |
1940s | 292.71 | 21 | 9.86 |
1950s | 315.67 | 6 | 19.33 |
1960s | 323.22 | 18 | 27.56 |
1970s | 254.18 | 22 | 36.27 |
1980s | 270.55 | 11 | 30.55 |
1990s | 290.60 | 10 | 36.40 |
2000s | 262.00 | 2 | 43.50 |
2000s-proj | 262.00 | 2 | 43.50 |
Avg | 288.92 | 93 | 25.95 |
Here's what happened: After lowering their standards in the Forties and Fifties, the writers limited their elections and (therefore) their selections in the Sixties while raising their standards slightly. The wait for the players who did go in became shorter then and has continued to shorten. So the writers become pickier but were able to concentrate on a worthy candidate more and more quickly.
Meanwhile, the Veterans alternated decades of high membership and low standards with those of high standards and low membership until, in reaction to the stasis the writers reached in the Fifties, they indulged for two decades on players of lower and lower standards. The membership began to slow, but the standards remained low until the committee was dramatically revamped in 2001.
After 2001, these once leaky faucet (the Veterans Committee) went from a trickle to being completely shut off.
So who cares? Even though we can't correct the past, at least now we are getting players who are truly plaque worthy, right? True, but who is being left out?
Take a look at the table below listing the number of players that were eligible for an election but were not selected even though they exceeded the Hall average for Win Shares (337). Also, listed is the number with 300 Win Shares (a Tropic of Cancer away from the 337-WS equator). Note the numbers were approaching zero around 1980, meaning that all players who met this criterion were the Hall, and have been growing ever since. Sure the standards remain high for the Hall but a number of worthy candidates are being overlooked arbitrarily:<./p>
Yr | voted by | >337 WS | >300 WS |
1936 | BBWAA | 32 | 46 |
1937 | BBWAA | 31 | 45 |
1938 | BBWAA | 31 | 45 |
1939 | BBWAA | 28 | 41 |
1942 | BBWAA | 29 | 43 |
1945 | BBWAA | 29 | 44 |
1946 | BBWAA | 10 | 19 |
1947 | BBWAA | 8 | 18 |
1948 | BBWAA | 9 | 20 |
1949 | BBWAA | 9 | 21 |
1950 | BBWAA | 9 | 21 |
1951 | BBWAA | 8 | 19 |
1952 | BBWAA | 7 | 18 |
1953 | BBWAA | 6 | 17 |
1954 | BBWAA | 7 | 16 |
1955 | BBWAA | 6 | 13 |
1956 | BBWAA | 6 | 12 |
1958 | BBWAA | 5 | 11 |
1960 | BBWAA | 4 | 10 |
1962 | BBWAA | 4 | 9 |
1964 | BBWAA | 2 | 7 |
1966 | BBWAA | 2 | 7 |
1967 | BBWAA | 2 | 7 |
1968 | BBWAA | 2 | 5 |
1969 | BBWAA | 1 | 5 |
1970 | BBWAA | 2 | 6 |
1971 | BBWAA | 4 | 9 |
1972 | BBWAA | 4 | 8 |
1973 | BBWAA | 3 | 7 |
1974 | BBWAA | 3 | 7 |
1975 | BBWAA | 3 | 7 |
1976 | BBWAA | 2 | 6 |
1977 | BBWAA | 2 | 6 |
1978 | BBWAA | 1 | 5 |
1979 | BBWAA | 1 | 4 |
1980 | BBWAA | 0 | 5 |
1981 | BBWAA | 1 | 7 |
1982 | BBWAA | 2 | 8 |
1983 | BBWAA | 3 | 10 |
1984 | BBWAA | 2 | 9 |
1985 | BBWAA | 2 | 10 |
1986 | BBWAA | 2 | 9 |
1987 | BBWAA | 1 | 9 |
1988 | BBWAA | 1 | 10 |
1989 | BBWAA | 2 | 12 |
1990 | BBWAA | 2 | 13 |
1991 | BBWAA | 2 | 13 |
1992 | BBWAA | 4 | 16 |
1993 | BBWAA | 5 | 17 |
1994 | BBWAA | 5 | 21 |
1995 | BBWAA | 6 | 20 |
1996 | BBWAA | 6 | 20 |
1997 | BBWAA | 6 | 21 |
1998 | BBWAA | 7 | 21 |
1999 | BBWAA | 8 | 22 |
2000 | BBWAA | 6 | 19 |
2001 | BBWAA | 7 | 20 |
2002 | BBWAA | 8 | 21 |
2003 | BBWAA | 8 | 20 |
2004 | BBWAA | 8 | 20 |
2005 | BBWAA | 7 | 18 |
2006 | BBWAA | 6 | 17 |
2007 | BBWAA | 6 | 17 |
1937 | Centenial | 31 | 45 |
1938 | Centenial | 31 | 45 |
1939 | Old Timers | 28 | 41 |
1944 | Old Timers | 30 | 45 |
1945 | Old Timers | 29 | 44 |
1946 | Old Timers | 10 | 19 |
1949 | Old Timers | 9 | 21 |
1953 | Veterans | 15 | 23 |
1955 | Veterans | 15 | 22 |
1957 | Veterans | 15 | 22 |
1959 | Veterans | 15 | 22 |
1961 | Veterans | 13 | 21 |
1962 | Veterans | 14 | 23 |
1963 | Veterans | 13 | 20 |
1964 | Veterans | 11 | 18 |
1965 | Veterans | 10 | 17 |
1966 | Veterans | 10 | 17 |
1967 | Veterans | 10 | 18 |
1968 | Veterans | 10 | 18 |
1969 | Veterans | 10 | 18 |
1970 | Veterans | 10 | 18 |
1971 | Veterans | 10 | 15 |
1972 | Veterans | 10 | 15 |
1973 | Veterans | 10 | 15 |
1974 | Veterans | 10 | 15 |
1975 | Veterans | 10 | 15 |
1976 | Veterans | 9 | 14 |
1977 | Veterans | 9 | 14 |
1978 | Veterans | 9 | 15 |
1979 | Veterans | 9 | 16 |
1980 | Veterans | 9 | 16 |
1981 | Veterans | 8 | 15 |
1982 | Veterans | 8 | 16 |
1983 | Veterans | 8 | 16 |
1984 | Veterans | 8 | 15 |
1985 | Veterans | 7 | 14 |
1986 | Veterans | 7 | 14 |
1987 | Veterans | 7 | 14 |
1988 | Veterans | 7 | 14 |
1989 | Veterans | 7 | 14 |
1990 | Veterans | 7 | 14 |
1991 | Veterans | 7 | 14 |
1992 | Veterans | 7 | 14 |
1993 | Veterans | 7 | 14 |
1994 | Veterans | 7 | 17 |
1995 | Veterans | 7 | 17 |
1996 | Veterans | 7 | 17 |
1997 | Veterans | 8 | 19 |
1998 | Veterans | 7 | 18 |
1999 | Veterans | 7 | 18 |
2000 | Veterans | 7 | 17 |
2001 | Veterans | 7 | 18 |
2002 | Veterans | 7 | 19 |
2003 | Veterans | 7 | 19 |
2004 | Veterans | 7 | 20 |
2005 | Veterans | 8 | 22 |
2006 | Veterans | 9 | 24 |
2007 | Veterans | 9 | 24 |
Name, Win Shares, 1st Elig, Last Elig
=====================================
Bill Dahlen, 394, 1936, 1945
Bob Caruthers, 337, 1936, 1945
George Van Haltren, 344, 1936, 1945
Jimmy Sheckard, 339, 1936, 1945
Sherry Magee, 354, 1936, 1945
Tony Mullane, 399, 1936, 1945
Dick Allen, 342, 1983, 1997
Rusty Staub, 358, 1991, 2005
Pete Rose, 547, 1992, 2006
Here are the ones still on the BBWAA:
Darrell Evans, 363, 1995, 2009
Dwight Evans, 347, 1997, 2011
Bert Blyleven, 339, 1998, 2012
Lou Whitaker, 351, 2001, 2015
Andre Dawson, 340, 2002, 2016
Mark McGwire, 343, 2007, 2021
Here are the retired players who are not eligible for the Hall:
Tim Raines, 390, 2008, 2022
Rickey Henderson, 535, 2009, 2023
Barry Larkin, 346, 2010, 2024
Fred McGriff, 341, 2010, 2024
Roberto Alomar, 376, 2010, 2024
Jeff Bagwell, 388, 2011, 2025
Rafael Palmeiro, 395, 2011, 2025
And here are the active ones:
Alex Rodriguez, 343, 2012, 2026
Barry Bonds, 693, 2012, 2026
Craig Biggio, 425, 2012, 2026
Frank Thomas, 384, 2012, 2026
Gary Sheffield, 405, 2012, 2026
Greg Maddux, 381, 2012, 2026
Ken Griffey, 371, 2012, 2026
Manny Ramirez, 339, 2012, 2026
Roger Clemens, 435, 2012, 2026
'Nuff sed?
So, I looked at the Win Shares average of the two groups of electees, only I took out the 45 first ballot selections, plus the following players who didn't make it on the first try due to various voting issues but are pretty clear first-ballot types:
Pete Alexander
Yogi Berra
Eddie Collins
Joe DiMaggio
Carlton Fisk
Jimmie Foxx
Rogers Hornsby
Nap Lajoie
Eddie Mathews
Mel Ott
Tris Speaker
Cy Young
What I found was that all remaining BBWAA selections averaged 304 Win Shares, while all VC selections averaged 288, That's not a very large margin at all.
In short, while I completely agree that the Veterans Committee hasn't done a very good job, the fact is that the BBWAA isn't much better. Why give them credit for the slam dunks? You, me and a group of 500 other serious baseball fans could have elected the Ty Cobbs, George Bretts and Tom Seavers of the world. Where the BBWAA should be earning their right to vote is in the next tier of selections, and I just don't see where their collective record in that regard is appreciably better than the Veterans Committee that is so deservedly bashed.
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