Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Well, the votes are in and the results are that the voters are friggin' nuts.
Justin Morneau won the AL MVP and I defy you to come up with a valid argument for him being the MVP, or even MVP stand-in, on his own team, let alone for the entire league. Derek Jeter was the obvious choice, and that's why the voters ignored him enough to let Morneau win. One voter from Chicago even had Jeter sixth!?!
So the question isn't whether Morneau deserved the award—he didn't. It's whether he is the worst candidate ever to win the award. Unfortunately, he isn't but he's up there.
Here are the only MVP winners who, by Win Shares, were worse choices than Morneau:
| Name | Yr | Win Shares | POS |
| Roger Peckinpaugh | 1925 | 15 | SS |
| Jake Daubert | 1913 | 17 | 1B |
| Rollie Fingers | 1981 | 17 | P |
| Dennis Eckersley | 1992 | 18 | P |
| Willie Stargell | 1979 | 18 | 1B |
| Andre Dawson | 1987 | 20 | OF |
| Marty Marion | 1944 | 20 | SS |
| Frankie Frisch | 1931 | 21 | 2B |
| Juan Gonzalez | 1996 | 21 | RF |
| Mickey Cochrane | 1928 | 22 | C |
| Bob O'Farrell | 1926 | 23 | C |
| Jim Konstanty | 1950 | 23 | P |
| Mickey Cochrane | 1934 | 23 | C |
| Ernie Lombardi | 1938 | 24 | C |
| George Burns | 1926 | 24 | 1B |
| Mo Vaughn | 1995 | 24 | 1B |
| Thurman Munson | 1976 | 24 | C |
| Willie Hernandez | 1984 | 24 | P |
| Yogi Berra | 1955 | 24 | C |
| Dick Groat | 1960 | 25 | SS |
| Frank Thomas | 1994 | 25 | 1B |
| Johnny Evers | 1914 | 25 | 2B |
| Juan Gonzalez | 1998 | 25 | RF |
| Gabby Hartnett | 1935 | 26 | C |
| George Bell | 1987 | 26 | OF |
Morneau's candidacy doesn't bear close scrutiny. He came in fifth in Win Shares for the league, eighth in OPS, and 13th in Baseball Prospectus's VORP. Here are the top twelve finishers in the AL MVP voting (plus Manny Ramirez who got completely hosed) with their ranks per Win Shares, OPS, and VORP along with their overall rank:
| Player, Club | Points | Pos | Total WS | Rank | OPS | Rank | VORP | Rank | Avg Rk | Overall Rank |
| Justin Morneau, MIN | 320 | 1B | 27 | 5 | .934 | 7 | 52.0 | 11 | 7.67 | 9 |
| Derek Jeter, NYY | 306 | SS | 33 | 1 | .900 | 12 | 80.5 | 1 | 4.67 | 5 |
| David Ortiz, BOS | 193 | DH | 29 | 3 | 1.049 | 3 | 76.8 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 |
| Frank Thomas, OAK | 174 | DH | 22 | 13 | .926 | 9 | 41.3 | 12 | 11.33 | 19 |
| Jermaine Dye, CWS | 156 | OF | 26 | 6 | 1.006 | 5 | 64.6 | 8 | 6.33 | 6 |
| Joe Mauer, MIN | 116 | C | 31 | 2 | .936 | 6 | 66.9 | 5 | 4.33 | 3 |
| Johan Santana, MIN | 114 | SP | 25 | 9 | 9.00 | 12 | ||||
| Travis Hafner, CLE | 64 | DH | 25 | 9 | 1.097 | 1 | 79.7 | 2 | 4.00 | 3 |
| Vladimir Guerrero, LAA | 46 | OF | 25 | 9 | .934 | 7 | 63.9 | 9 | 8.33 | 10 |
| Carlos Guillen, DET | 34 | SS | 26 | 6 | .920 | 10 | 66.3 | 6 | 7.33 | 8 |
| Grady Sizemore, CLE | 24 | OF | 25 | 9 | .907 | 11 | 69.1 | 4 | 8.00 | 10 |
| Jim Thome, CWS | 17 | DH | 26 | 6 | 1.014 | 4 | 62.6 | 10 | 6.67 | 7 |
| Manny Ramirez, BOS | 6 | OF | 29 | 3 | 1.058 | 2 | 66.1 | 7 | 4.00 | 2 |
Morneau ranked ninth overall by this method. That seems about right. I do, however, have a problem with David Ortiz coming in at number one, but overall these rankings seem closer to reality than the real thing.
Ramirez is a great example. He came in 19th in the voting, but had tremendously better stats than the fourth place finisher, Frank Thomas, and he plays a defensive position.
The results of the voting actually have very little correlation to either Win Share (the best at .538 coefficient), OPS (.405), VORP (.498) or overall rank (-.531).
But look on the bright side. Howard and Morneau become the lest experienced MVP duo of all time (based on avg Win Shares). Their collective 31 Win Shares at the start of the season knocked the 1974 duo (Jeff Burroughs and Steve Garvey) from the top spot:
| Yr | Win Shares Avg |
| 2006 | 15.5 |
| 1974 | 27.5 |
| 1927 | 38 |
| 1984 | 38.5 |
| 1985 | 41 |
| 1943 | 46 |
| 1944 | 53 |
| 1952 | 58 |
| 1983 | 58 |
| 1960 | 63.5 |
| 1942 | 69.5 |
So if history is any indication, Howard and Morneau just have to decide which one will be the subject of a paternity suit and which one will have a son who will tank in the majors.
Happy Turkey Day one and all! Let's root the Cowboys on to defeat.
http://www.protrade.com/content/DisplayArticle.html?sp=Sa0a6289a-79ca-11db-b338-254e99c0e72f
And go whoever's playing the Cowboys.
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