Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The justification for the kings of mediocrity, the Cardinals, winning the World Series is that they had so many players that missed substantial stretches of the season. They got healthy to start the players and the end result was that they slid into the postseason by the skin of their teeth but given the actual talent they had on the team, they easily won in it all. And what kind of jerk am I anyway for not seeing it all along?
Well, that sure sound great, but did the Cardinals really miss more games than the average playoff team? Does getting players back for the postseason guarantee success?
The Cardinals starters missed a total of 206 during the regular season:
NAME | G | Missed G |
David Eckstein | 123 | 38 |
Yadier Molina | 129 | 32 |
Jim Edmonds | 110 | 51 |
Albert Pujols | 143 | 18 |
Scott Rolen | 142 | 19 |
Ronnie Belliard* | 147 | 14 |
Juan Encarnacion | 153 | 8 |
Preston Wilson* | 135 | 26 |
Tot Missed | 206 |
* Belliard played just 54 G w/ St. Louis;Wilson 33
206 sounds like a lot, but how does it compare with past postseason team? The answer is not all that well. It's about average.Of course, this kind of study is rife with assumptions. I am assuming that the starting position players used in the postseason are the team's ideal lineup, which is of course not always the case. A team could have a starting player who played all 162 games but gets hurt in the final game and misses the playoffs entirely. He gets replaced by a backup who may have played just a handful of games. By my assumption, it looks like the backup missed was the preferred player but he missed most of the regular season. But it's impossible to state in all situations who was the player the teams preferred.
Anyway, here are the playoff teams that lost the most regular season games to their starters:
Yr | Tm | G Missed | W | L | DivWin | WCWin | LgWin | WSWin |
1940 | Cincinnati Reds | 463 | 100 | 53 | Y | Y | ||
1998 | New York Yankees | 397 | 114 | 48 | Y | N | Y | Y |
2004 | Anaheim Angels | 392 | 92 | 70 | Y | N | N | N |
1957 | New York Yankees | 389 | 98 | 56 | Y | N | ||
1975 | Boston Red Sox | 385 | 95 | 65 | Y | Y | N | |
2001 | Atlanta Braves | 384 | 88 | 74 | Y | N | N | N |
1978 | New York Yankees | 383 | 100 | 63 | Y | Y | Y | |
2002 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 376 | 98 | 64 | Y | N | N | N |
1955 | New York Yankees | 370 | 96 | 58 | Y | N | ||
1980 | Houston Astros | 366 | 93 | 70 | Y | N | N | |
1948 | Boston Braves | 365 | 91 | 62 | Y | N | ||
1999 | Cleveland Indians | 352 | 97 | 65 | Y | N | N | N |
1988 | New York Mets | 352 | 100 | 60 | Y | N | N | |
1984 | Kansas City Royals | 351 | 84 | 78 | Y | N | N | |
2004 | Minnesota Twins | 349 | 92 | 70 | Y | N | N | N |
You might notice by the way that only three of those teams won a World Series. Overall, there is the very slightest correlation against the missed game theory (-0.024).
The real reasons that the Cardinals' offense went wild in the postseason was that they upgraded two of their sore spots (second base and left field) and their other liability, "It's Yadier!" Molina had the postseason of his life.
By the way, here are the teams that lost the least time during the regular season:
Yr | Tm | G Missed | W | L | DivWin | WCWin | LgWin | WSWin |
1909 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 49 | 110 | 42 | Y | Y | ||
1950 | Philadelphia Phillies | 68 | 91 | 63 | Y | N | ||
1933 | Washington Senators | 78 | 99 | 53 | Y | N | ||
1919 | Chicago White Sox | 79 | 88 | 52 | Y | N | ||
1921 | New York Giants | 79 | 94 | 59 | Y | Y | ||
1986 | Boston Red Sox | 92 | 95 | 66 | Y | Y | N | |
1934 | Detroit Tigers | 94 | 101 | 53 | Y | N | ||
1996 | Baltimore Orioles | 96 | 88 | 74 | N | Y | N | N |
2003 | Florida Marlins | 98 | 91 | 71 | N | Y | Y | Y |
1995 | Colorado Rockies | 99 | 77 | 67 | N | Y | N | N |
1999 | New York Mets | 106 | 97 | 66 | N | Y | N | N |
1911 | New York Giants | 107 | 99 | 54 | Y | N | ||
1923 | New York Yankees | 108 | 98 | 54 | Y | Y | ||
1993 | Atlanta Braves | 109 | 104 | 58 | Y | N | N | |
1954 | New York Giants | 115 | 97 | 57 | Y | Y |
I am not sure about the original premise of "winning the World Series is that they had so many players that missed substantial stretches of the season" being a justification for the Cards winning the WS. Do they need a justification? I agree that they had significant injuries to key players. One thing the study should look at (if done right) is to look at which part of the season they had the injuries and which part of the season did they play poorly. The Cardinals were a solid 2nd best team in the NL (record wise) for much of the season. Personally, I don't look for "justification" of them winning the WS, other than the simple fact that they took on all comers and outplayed them all. The playoffs are a small sample size and any team that makes the playoffs can win it, within reason. Don't mock the team, mock the system. vr, Xei
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.