Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
A slippery field and another errant throw by a Tiger pitcher and we are at the doorstep of an unprecedented World Series victory. I don't think anyone is considering how bad a team the Cardinals are based on the regular season record and how unique their winning a World Series will be.
Sure, there have been mediocre teams that have won a World Series beforethe Twins won just 85 games before a dome-aided championship year in 1987but none have been this mediocre.
Let me demonstrate. First here are the worst baseball champions by winning percentage including the 2006 Cardinals:
Yr | Team | W | L | PCT |
2006 | St. Louis Cardinals | 83 | 78 | .516 |
1987 | Minnesota Twins | 85 | 77 | .525 |
2000 | New York Yankees | 87 | 74 | .540 |
1974 | Oakland Athletics | 90 | 72 | .556 |
2003 | Florida Marlins | 91 | 71 | .562 |
1990 | Cincinnati Reds | 91 | 71 | .562 |
1985 | Kansas City Royals | 91 | 71 | .562 |
1980 | Philadelphia Phillies | 91 | 71 | .562 |
1959 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 88 | 68 | .564 |
1945 | Detroit Tigers | 88 | 65 | .568 |
2001 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 92 | 70 | .568 |
1997 | Florida Marlins | 92 | 70 | .568 |
1996 | New York Yankees | 92 | 70 | .568 |
1982 | St. Louis Cardinals | 92 | 70 | .568 |
1926 | St. Louis Cardinals | 89 | 65 | .571 |
Now, here are the ones with the least wins:
Yr | Team | W | L | PCT |
1981 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63 | 47 | .573 |
1918 | Boston Red Sox | 75 | 51 | .595 |
1887 | Detroit Wolverines | 79 | 45 | .622 |
2006 | St. Louis Cardinals | 83 | 78 | .516 |
1889 | New York Giants | 83 | 43 | .634 |
1888 | New York Giants | 84 | 47 | .609 |
1884 | Providence Grays | 84 | 28 | .737 |
1987 | Minnesota Twins | 85 | 77 | .525 |
2000 | New York Yankees | 87 | 74 | .540 |
1959 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 88 | 68 | .564 |
1945 | Detroit Tigers | 88 | 65 | .568 |
1926 | St. Louis Cardinals | 89 | 65 | .571 |
1995 | Atlanta Braves | 90 | 54 | .625 |
1974 | Oakland Athletics | 90 | 72 | .556 |
2003 | Florida Marlins | 91 | 71 | .562 |
1990 | Cincinnati Reds | 91 | 71 | .562 |
1985 | Kansas City Royals | 91 | 71 | .562 |
1980 | Philadelphia Phillies | 91 | 71 | .562 |
So the Cardinals won't have the fewest wins, but they trail (or tie) just a champion from a strike-shortened season, one from a war-shortened season, and two from the nineteenth century when far fewer games were played. Consider that in 1994, when about forty fewer games were played due to a season-ending lockout, the Expos with the best record in baseball had just 9 fewer wins than the '06 Cardinals.
But I think the kicker is the fact that the Cardinals were the 13th best team in baseball this season based on winning percentage. No prior World Series comes close to that sort of mediocrity:
Yr | Team | W | L | PCT | Teams Better | Tot Teams | Percentile |
2006 | St. Louis Cardinals | 83 | 78 | .516 | 12 | 30 | 43% |
1987 | Minnesota Twins | 85 | 77 | .525 | 8 | 26 | 35% |
2000 | New York Yankees | 87 | 74 | .540 | 8 | 30 | 30% |
2003 | Florida Marlins | 91 | 71 | .562 | 6 | 30 | 23% |
1985 | Kansas City Royals | 91 | 71 | .562 | 5 | 26 | 23% |
1980 | Philadelphia Phillies | 91 | 71 | .562 | 5 | 26 | 23% |
2001 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 92 | 70 | .568 | 5 | 30 | 20% |
1964 | St. Louis Cardinals | 93 | 69 | .574 | 3 | 20 | 20% |
1962 | New York Yankees | 96 | 66 | .593 | 3 | 20 | 20% |
1959 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 88 | 68 | .564 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1954 | New York Giants | 97 | 57 | .630 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1945 | Detroit Tigers | 88 | 65 | .568 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1935 | Detroit Tigers | 93 | 58 | .612 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1933 | New York Giants | 91 | 61 | .583 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1926 | St. Louis Cardinals | 89 | 65 | .571 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1924 | Washington Senators | 92 | 62 | .590 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1922 | New York Giants | 93 | 61 | .596 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1916 | Boston Red Sox | 91 | 63 | .583 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1906 | Chicago White Sox | 93 | 58 | .604 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1889 | New York Giants | 83 | 43 | .634 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1888 | New York Giants | 84 | 47 | .609 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1886 | St. Louis Browns | 93 | 46 | .669 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
1974 | Oakland Athletics | 90 | 72 | .556 | 3 | 24 | 17% |
1973 | Oakland Athletics | 94 | 68 | .580 | 3 | 24 | 17% |
1990 | Cincinnati Reds | 91 | 71 | .562 | 3 | 26 | 15% |
1982 | St. Louis Cardinals | 92 | 70 | .568 | 3 | 26 | 15% |
1981 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63 | 47 | .573 | 3 | 26 | 15% |
Detroit could still come back. Teams trailing 1-3 have won the given playoff series ten times in baseball history. The last was the Bartman-aided 2003 NLCS victory by the Marlins over the Cubs. The last team to do it in a World Series was the 1985 Royals.
However, teams leading 3-1 have won their playoff series fifty out of sixty times. Given the Tigers luck, especially on balls hit by David Eckstein tonight, I wouldn't bet on it.
I don't see how you can say the Cardinals are "a bad team" with a straight face. They have won 93 games so far this season. They won their division, even with some big injuries along the way the last couple of months of the season. They got off to a very good start and that cushion allowed them to still win the division even with all the injuries and sloppy ball they played down the stretch. For the most part, the team got healthy for the postseason and have beaten the NL West and NL East champions and are up three games to one on the Tigers, a team that cleaned the clocks of the NY Yankees and Oakland A's. I mean what else could you ask for? Does a team have to win 118 games in the regular season to impress you? The whole purpose is to just "make the playoffs" and the Cardinals did that very efficiently. What would've 6 more regular season wins have gotten them? What would've 15 more wins have gotten them? A 7th home game vs the Mets and that wasn't needed. Set your alarm clock for tomorrow night, or whichever night the weather allows for a game 5. vr, Xei
No one is claiming that St. Louis is a "bad team" as you claim. People are just claiming that St. Louis is the worst team to ever play in the World Series. That much is obviously true; no amount of silly, faulty reasoning will make that untrue. I mean; Oh really they beat the NL West 'champions' (the 2nd worst division in baseball, SD won all of 88 games, quite a 'jugernaught') and the NL East champions; a team with two decent starting pitchers, one of whom is a rookie.
The St. Louis Cardinals are not a 'bad team' as your weak straw-man argument would claim, they are just a mediocre team. Its a shame that baseball has degenerated to a state that a team barely capable of a .500 record can claim to be the 'World Champions'. It makes the BCS look like an enlightened system to define the best college football team in the nation. Anyone who still believes that the World Series winner is the best team in the major leagues is as delusional as your argument.
vr, Xei
Now, Im not saying the Cardinals are the best team. But...who was? The Yankees (who also had only 2 good starters)? The Mets? The Twins? THe grass is always greener. People get tired of the Pats winning all those superbowls or the Bulls winning all those titles, but then you when you actually have a league where the top half of teams have a legit shot at winning it all, there are complaints about that.
College football is a joke. Every dollar the BCS makes should go to scholarships for non-athletes. At non-division 1 schools. But that is a discussion for a different time...
All in all, yes, the Cardinals historically will be measured as a mediocre team. But if they win they earned their title. They should make no apoligies for being lucky, for the Eckstiens ball landing two inches farther than Monroe's glove, or for benefitting from two Detroit errors. They earned their spot through the regular season, have taken all challengers, and should be applauded if they go all the way.
Well, because you asked: baseball should have a playoff system that reinforces the importance of the making it through the difficult grind of the regular season with the most wins. It should have four divisions with an even number of teams, 32 total teams at most, a balanced schedule, no interleague play, and if you don't win your division, you don't make the playoffs. The winners should play in the World Series, which should not take place so late in October that players and fans in attendance suffer through the games in a chilly rainfall on freezing fields wearing three or four layers of clothing to keep warm.
1 I don't say that the Cardinals are "a bad team". I do say they are "mediocre", which they quite clearly are based on the 162 (or 161 really) games of the regular season.
4 The Cardinals are not "the worst team to ever play in the World Series". The '73 Mets were 82-79. They will be the worst to win a World Series, however.
10 I'm doing a piece at Baseball Prospectus on what's wrong with the playoff system. Long story short, it all starts with the first round.
10. Your piece at BP will be a must read. My guess is that you are going to adjust the homefield advantage to help the higher seeded team. I don't think that is a good solution. But I will wait to read. :) vr, Xei
I mean, that series was a 1-3 the day after 0-3, so that counts, right?
"Toaster dudes show their lack of knowledge - again"
That's great schtick.
https://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/338153.html
World Series Champion, the best craps shooting team
Smart: Oakland
Siegrist: Oakland
Weisman: Atlanta
Arneson: St. Louis
Carminati: Oakland
Timmermann: Cleveland
Belth: White Sox
Corcoran: Oakland
Long: Yankees
Donohue: Oakland
Your pick to win the NL Central was...
Carminati: St. Louis, Milwaukee, Houston, Cubs, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
http://tinyurl.com/yeljpg
Sparky Anderson predicted a Tigers/Cardinals W.S., before the season started.
http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/
Had the Cardinals beating the Tigers in 5 games.
Shall I go on? :)
vr, Xei
by 18 I meant anyone who picked them to win it all at the beginning of the playoffs.
vr, Xei
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