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Score Four
2006-09-20 22:28
by Mike Carminati

The Dodgers, you may have heard, hit four consecutive home runs the other day. It was the first time that any team had hit four straight since 1964 and only the fourth time all time. Any home run record in which Marlon Anderson is involved is definitely an oddity.

I was wondering what the odds were of those four players hitting four consecutive home runs. I looked up the home runs and plate appearances for each, took their home run ratio (HR/PA), and then found the product of all four to get the odds for this odd event. Here goes:

DodgerHRPARatio
Jeff Kent 14434 0.032
J.D. Drew17555 0.031
Russell Martin 10430 0.023
Marlon Anderson537 0.135
Odds 0.0000031
1 in… 322,037

One out of three hundred odd thousand seems pretty unlikely, which makes one wonder how it ever happens at all. So I looked up the teams with the best odds to do it all-time, assuming that the four players with the highest homer ratios all batted back-to-back:

Odds (1 in) YrTmPlayer1 HRratio Player2 HRratio Player3 HRratio Player4 HRratio
5,251 1998CHNOrlando Merced 0.083 Sammy Sosa 0.091 Derrick White 0.100 Jason Maxwell 0.250
6,677 1998CHNHenry Rodriguez 0.066 Sammy Sosa 0.091 Derrick White 0.100 Jason Maxwell 0.250
7,324 1998CHNHenry Rodriguez 0.066 Orlando Merced 0.083 Derrick White 0.100 Jason Maxwell 0.250
8,012 1998CHNHenry Rodriguez 0.066 Orlando Merced 0.083 Sammy Sosa 0.091 Jason Maxwell 0.250
8,910 1987SFNDon Robinson 0.091 Jim Gott 0.100 Jessie Reid 0.111 Rob Wilfong 0.111
8,910 1987SFNDon Robinson 0.091 Jim Gott 0.100 Rob Wilfong 0.111 Jessie Reid 0.111
10,560 1973ATLDavey Johnson 0.066 Norm Miller 0.083 Hank Aaron 0.086 Gary Neibauer 0.200
14,551 1995CLEPaul Sorrento 0.066 Albert Belle 0.079 Brian Giles 0.111 Billy Ripken 0.118
20,030 1998CHNHenry Rodriguez 0.066 Orlando Merced 0.083 Sammy Sosa 0.091 Derrick White 0.100
21,810 2000LANGary Sheffield 0.070 Ismael Valdez 0.077 Bruce Aven 0.087 Chris Donnels 0.098
22,539 2000LANTodd Hundley 0.068 Ismael Valdez 0.077 Bruce Aven 0.087 Chris Donnels 0.098
23,303 1961NYAJohnny Blanchard 0.076 Bob Hale 0.077 Mickey Mantle 0.084 Roger Maris 0.087
24,676 2000LANTodd Hundley 0.068 Gary Sheffield 0.070 Bruce Aven 0.087 Chris Donnels 0.098
27,894 2000LANTodd Hundley 0.068 Gary Sheffield 0.070 Ismael Valdez 0.077 Chris Donnels 0.098
31,296 2000LANTodd Hundley 0.068 Gary Sheffield 0.070 Ismael Valdez 0.077 Bruce Aven 0.087
31,459 2000HOUJeff Bagwell 0.065 Richard Hidalgo 0.068 Daryle Ward 0.071 Keith Ginter 0.100

Jason Maxwell? Orlando Merced? Keith Ginter? Again I repeat, how did any team ever hit four straight homers? Next time I'll ask Mr. Owl.

Comments
2006-09-20 23:32:39
1.   das411
Amazing that a certain Mister 732 is nowhere in that chart Mike...
2006-09-21 00:35:02
2.   Ken Arneson
1 And Don Robinson and Jim Gott--two former Giants' pitchers--are?

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.