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Two Ships
2006-09-13 23:03
by Mike Carminati

The Phils won both ends of their doubleheader in Atlanta to close the gap in their wild card hunt to 1-1/2 games behind the leader (San Diego). The Marlins (3 games back) and apparently the Giants (2.5 GB, if they lose to the Rockies—they trail 8-5 in the seventh) are falling out of the race after recent surges.

Meanwhile the Twins after losing starter Francisco Liriano, lost 1-0 to Oakland, but remained just 1.5 games behind the faltering Tigers after they got slammed by the Rangers, 11-2, including a Sarge Matthews Jr. cycle. The White Sox, after a 9-0 win over the Angels, pull to 1.5 games behind the Twins in the wild card hunt and three games behind the Tigers for the AL Central.

While I was trying to put all of this in perspective, a number of questions occurred to me. The Twins have not been in first all season. If they do pass the Tigers and win the division, will it be the latest that any team moved into first place and then won the division/league? Will they have the fewest days in first for a division winner?

Will the Tigers lose their title later in the season than any other team in baseball history? Will they own the dubious distinction of being in first for the most days in the season without winning a title?

If the Phils don't nab the wild card title after coming as close as one half game behind without ever leading the hunt, will that be as close as any team came in second half of a season without grabbing the proverbial cigar?

OK, I don't think that the Twins have a chance of grabbing a division/league lead later than any other team. The 1873 Boston Red Stockings took over the lead of the National Association on Oct 1 (the league played until November 1). For a more modern example, the '64 Cards grabbed the NL lead on September 29 from the Reds, who wrested it from the ill-fated 1964 Phils three days earlier. There are only five teams that have ever grabbed a division, league, or wild card lead in September and held it, and only two have come in the "modern" era. Here are the latest that a division-/league-winner ascended to first for the first time in a season:

YrLgTeam#Days in 1stMonth DayWLPCTG Ahead
1873NABS12110014316.7294
1964NLSLN609299369.5741
1942NLSLN16091210648.6882
1883NLBSN1909046335.6434
1889AABR34109019344.6792
1987ALDET3308199864.6052
1988ALBOS3008038973.5491
1935ALDET6407269358.6163
1983ALCHA7707189963.61120
1882NLCHN4307065529.6553
1871NAPH130704217.7502
1911ALPHA69070410150.66913.5
1895NLBLN5307028743.6693
1925NLPIT9306299558.6218.5
1993ALTOR9306269567.5867
1897NLBSN7406219339.7052
1964ALNYA3606219963.6111
1991ALMIN10806169567.5868
1972NLPIT11006129659.61911
1948NLBSN10706119162.5956.5
1972NLCIN11206099559.61710.5
1945ALDET10606088865.5751.5
1896NLBLN6906019039.6989.5

As for the fewest number of days in first for a division, wild card, or league winner, the answer is one. But it's a trick question. The Royals reached the postseason in the split-season 1981 season, but were only in first (based on overall record) for one day. Here are the fewest days in first for a division winner:

YrLGTm#DaysFirstLastWLPCTDivWinWCWinLgWinWSWinRankGBG Ahead
1981ALKCA119810408198104085053.485Y NN4110
1871NAPH131871070418711030217.750 Y 102
1964NLSLN619640929196410049369.574 YY101
1951NLNY1719510417195110039859.624 YN101
1938NLCHN1119380418193810028963.586 YN102
1934NLSLN1219340417193409309558.621 YY102
1981NLPHI1319810408198108115948.551Y NN32.50
1981ALML41319810408198110056247.569Y NN101
1959NLLAN1419590426195909298868.564 YY102
1942NLSLN16194209121942092710648.688 YY102
1981NLMON1719810408198105076048.556Y NN220
1935NLCHN17193504161935092910054.649 YN104
1956NLBRO1819560423195609309361.604 YN101
1967ALBOS1819670412196710019270.568 YN101
1883NLBSN1918830904188309306335.643 Y 104
1973NLNYN2019730405197310018279.509Y YN101.5
1873NABS12118731001187311014316.729 Y 104
1978ALNYA23197804051978100210063.613Y YY101
1930NLSLN2319300414193009289262.597 YN102
1969NLNYN24196904071969100210062.617Y YY108
1974ALBAL2519740404197410029171.562Y NN102

Here are the teams that spent the most days in first and won their division, etc.:

YrLGTm#DaysFirstLastWLPCTDivWinWCWinLgWinWSWinRankGBG Ahead
2001ALSEA181200104012001100711646.716YNNN1014
2003NLSFN180200303302003092810061.621YNNN1015.5
2005ALCHA18020050403200510029963.611YNYY106
1996ALTEX17919960401199609299072.556YNNN104.5
1984ALDET179198404021984093010458.642Y YY1015
1999ALCLE17819990404199910049765.599YNNN1021.5
1993NLPHI17819930405199310039765.599Y YN103
1997ALBAL17819970401199709289864.605YNNN102
1998ALCLE17819980331199809288973.549YNNN109
1999ALTEX17719990404199910049567.586YNNN108
1884UASLU17718840420188410199419.832 Y 1035.5
2000NLSLN17720000403200010019567.586YNNN1010
1990NLCIN17619900409199010039171.562Y YY105
2003ALNYA176200303302003092810161.623YNYN106
1999ALNYA17619990404199910049864.605YNYY104
1905NLNY1175190504141905100810548.686 YY109
1970NLCIN175197004061970100110260.630Y YN1014.5
1999NLATL175199904041999100410359.636YNYN106.5
1892NLBSN175189204121892101510248.680 Y 108.5

As for the team that spent the most days in first but ended up losing the division or league, you have to look at the 1969 Cubs (151 days) who were passed Sept 10 by the Miracle Mets, and the rest is history. Here are the rest of the unlucky lot:

YrLGTm#DaysFIrstLastWLPCTRankGB
1969NLCHN15119690407196909099270.56828
1942NLBRO143194204141942091210450.67522
1993NLSFN141199304061993100210359.63621
1996NLMON14119960331199609198874.54328
1921NLPIT14119210421192109109063.58824
1951NLBRO14119510421195110029760.61821
1889NLBSN14018890417188910018345.64821
2003ALSEA13820030414200309039369.57423
1889AASL413818890417188910149045.66722
1985ALCAL13719850419198510029072.55621
2002ALSEA13620020331200208269369.574310
1995ALCAL13619950425199510017867.53821
1964NLPHI13219640414196409269270.56821
2001NLCHN13120010401200109068874.54335
1991NLLAN12919910410199110039369.57421
1994NLATL12819940403199408116846.59626
1979NLHOU12719790406197909108973.54921.5
2001ALMIN12420010401200108118577.52526
1956NLML112419560417195609289262.59721
1934NLNY112319340417193409289360.60822
1886NLDTN12018860417188608258736.70722.5
2004ALOAK12020040330200409309171.56221
1891NLCHN12018910408189109288253.60723.5
2001NLPHI11620010401200109248676.53122
2000NLARI11620000329200007308577.525312
1935NLNY111619350427193508249162.59538.5
1946NLBRO11519460420194609299660.61522
1921ALCLE11519210415192109199460.61024.5

As for which teams were passed the latest in the season, you have to look to the old Chicago White Stockings (nee Cubs) who lost the National Association crown on October 30. These are the teams that lost their crown at the latest dates in the season:

YrLGTm#DaysMon DayWLPCTRankGB
1871NACH1751030199.67922
1889AASL413810149045.66722
1908NLNY14410079856.63631
1904ALNYA3910079259.60921.5
1914FLCHF6910058767.56521.5
1980NLLAN5710059271.56421
1948ALBOS4010039659.61921
1999NLCIN3910039667.58921.5
1991NLLAN12910039369.57421
1908NLPIT5310039856.63621
1964NLCIN510039270.56831
1993NLSFN141100210359.63621
1985ALCAL13710029072.55621
1980NLMON7010029072.55621
1962NLLAN108100210263.61821
1987ALTOR5510029666.59322
1982ALBAL710029468.58021
1951NLBRO14110029760.61821
1995ALCAL13610017867.53821
1889NLBSN14010018345.64821
2004NLSFN5210019171.56222
1915FLPTF6910018667.56230.5
1916NLPHI2410019162.59522.5
1978ALBOS11410019964.60721
1972ALBOS2410018570.54820.5
1949ALBOS710019658.62321
2004ALOAK12009309171.56221
1873NAPH210709303617.67924
1974NLSLN8409308675.53421.5
1944ALDET1409308866.57121
1967ALMIN3909309171.56221

As for the team that came the closest to leading a division, league, or wild card race in the second half of a season (from July 1on) without ever actually leading it, the answer is the 1915 Tigers, who were actually a half game ahead of the Red Sox for two days, August 19 and 20 (at the end of a nine-game win streak), but trailed them by percentage points in the standings. Here are the teams that were within a half-game of a playoff spot but never took control of that spot:

YrTmDivMin PosMin GBMin GB WC
1915DET 2-0.5
1957PHI 20
1907CLE 20
1972NYNE20
1943WS1 20
1954NYA 20
1902BOS 20
1984PHIE20
1975ML4E20
1981MONE20
1915BRO 20
2002CINC203
2003MONE360
1927NY1 20.5
1950BRO 20.5
1994OAKW20.511.5
1989ML4E20.5
1970CHNE20.5
1950BOS 20.5
1979CHNE20.5
1994COLW20.59.5
1978PITE20.5
1914DET 20.5
1924BRO 20.5
1945WS1 20.5
1985MONE20.5
1962MIN 20.5
1987CALW20.5
1987HOUW20.5
1989SLNE20.5
1981TEXW20.5
1988HOUW20.5
1981BOSE30.5
1988PITE20.5
1908CHA 20.5
1940BOS 20.5
1980BALE20.5
1994SFNW20.511
1910NY1 20.5
1947NY1 20.5
1992BALE20.5
1901PHI 20.5
1972HOUW20.5
1973MONE20.5
1953ML1 20.5
1991BOSE20.5
1972NYAE20.5
1954BRO 20.5
1974MONE20.5
1957BRO 20.5
1993DETE20.5
1995OAKW31.50.5
2004CINC240.5
2005NYNE33.50.5
2004MILC33.50.5
Comments
2006-09-14 12:22:53
1.   das411
The 199*6* Expos? Wow, that would've been a fun team to watch...

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