By allowing a two-game advantage become a four-game split, the Phils this weekend allowed a great opportunity to both bury the division-rival Florida Marlins and to get themselves in the thick of the wild card hunt.

After the Marlins series, the Phils now find themselves in a three-way tie for second place in the wild card hunt, 2-1/2 games behind the Padres. That's one-half game closer to the wild card than they were before the split, but it is also a three-way tie as opposed to the two-way they had with Florida before the series.

So where are the Phils now, let alone the Giants and Marlins? Are two and one-half games a lot at this time of the season?

And what of the three other teams (Cincinnati, Houston, and Atlanta) that are within five games of the wild card lead? Do they have a legitimate shot of securing a playoff spot?

Well, let's look to the past to see…

Well, the last team to come back from at least five games back on September 10 were the 1964 Cardinals. They were tied for second with the Reds behind the ill-fated '64 Phils. For the team before that, you have to go back to the 1891 Boston Beaneaters, and there is just one other team (the 1873 National Association Boston Red Stockings) that came back from at least five games back on September 10.

OK, so it seems pretty clear that teams that are more than five games out have virtually no chance of making the playoffs, but what about the next tier of teams that are, say, between two and five games back.

Of all the teams that were between two and five games back in a league, division, or wild card race on September 10, only six made the postseason, the last being the 1973 Mets (the 2005 Yankees were four games out and then won the division; however, they were just 1.5 games out in the wild card).

Here are all the teams that were more than two games back (on 9/10) and then made the playoffs (including the 2005 Yankees):

Here is a breakdown of the teams' records as of 9/10, after 9/10, and in total:

Now if we expand our study to teams that were two games back (as of 9/10), the number of teams almost doubles, from nine to sixteen. The 1998 Rangers and 2000 A's meet this criterion.

Here are the new teams that meet our criterion:

…And there records:

That seems to be the tipping point: If a team is two games back, they have a decent shot at the postseason. Anything beyond that seems to be very longshot at best. So even though the NL wild card has appeared to be the most wide open of all the races, it seems now to be just the consolation prize for whichever team, the Dodgers or Padres, lose the NL West.

The most wide open race right now is for the AL Central, where two teams should make the postseason. Even though Detroit's lead is shrinking, they seem to have a spot, either as AL Central champ or as the wild card. The Twins can catch them, win the wild card, or get passed by the White Sox. The Sox's only shot at a playoff spot appears to be by passing the Twins for the wild card.