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Big Popup Is Right!
2006-09-11 19:27
by Mike Carminati

I love to see how all the Red Sox have their priorities straight. Today, David Ortiz opined that his team's demise, which they currently suffering through he should remember, should not bar him for consideration for the AL MVP award.

I'll let the erudite Ortiz speak for himself. He's so precious:

"I'll tell you one thing," Ortiz said. "If I get 50 home runs and 10 more RBI [which would give him 137], that's going to be a round number that no one else in the American League will have."

"But they'll vote for a position player, use that as an excuse. They're talking about [Derek] Jeter a lot, right? He's done a great job, he's having a great season, but Jeter is not a 40-homer hitter or an RBI guy. It doesn't matter how much you've done for your ball club, the bottom line is, the guy who hits 40 home runs and knocks in 100, that's the guy you know helped your team win games.

"Don't get me wrong -- he's a great player, having a great season, but he's got a lot of guys in that lineup," Ortiz continued. "Top to bottom, you've got a guy who can hurt you. Come hit in this lineup, see how good you can be….

"I'm right there, but I'm not going to win it. They give it to [Alex Rodriguez] one year, even though his team was in last place, so now they can't play that BS anymore, just because your team didn't make it. They gave it to Alex that year because of his numbers. But they always have a reason to vote for whatever, so that's why I don't worry about it."

It's not often that a player this lionized can run down his teammates—" Come hit in this lineup…"—while inflating his own worth. Like every foul fly ball down the line that Ortiz tries to turn into a home run by intimidating an umpire, he's trying to pull a shell game with the MVP award, confusing and conflating the issues.

He cites Alex Rodriguez's MVP award on a last-place team to justify his own. But Rodriguez had great offensive numbers and won a Gold Glove at arguably the toughest defensive position. It's the same position that Derek Jeter plays, though arguably not as well, which is one reason that he is a better choice to win the MVP than Ortiz, even though his being a position player is just an "excuse" to give him the award to Ortiz.

Ignore the fact that Jeter not only plays a defensive position, but plays the toughest one on the field. Ignore the fact that Jeter's team played and won games that actually mattered for making the postseason while Ortiz's did not. Jeter still tops Ortiz in both Baseball Prospectus's VORP (73.4 to 64.5) and batting Win Shares (23.4 to 22.5).

Jeter's having a more valuable year at the plate than Ortiz. And he plays a key defensive position. And he's on a division winner. Ortiz does not have a leg to stand on.

That said, Ortiz probably isn't the best choice for the award on his own team. He's probably the sixth or seventh best choice in the entire league.

Here are the AL leaders in VORP and Win Shares seeded by their average rank in both:

PlayerTm Pos Batting Pitching Fielding Total WSRankVORPRankAvg
JeterNYASS23.403.827173.432
HafnerCLEDH24.20024480.112.5
RamirezBOSOF2502.127160.974
DyeCHAOF2102.323566.655
MauerMINC18.407.326360.685.5
OrtizBOSDH22.500.123564.565.5
SantanaMINSP-0.1220221074.926
ThomeCHADH22.40023558.3107.5
GuerreroLAAOF20.402.223557.3118
SizemoreCLEOF18.303211366.948.5
MorneauMIN1B21.201.923548.9149.5
WellsTOROF1704.7221056.31211
TejadaBALSS16.604.5211360.4911
DamonNYAOF18.503.7221045.11512.5
GuillenDETSS17.303.9211352.61313

So why does the press let Ortiz twist the argument in his favor? On the anniversary of 9/11, one cannot overestimate how easily the press can be misled. If the lemmings in the press continue to fawn on him and allow him to frame the arguments for MVP, who knows, maybe he can win it. Of course, if it comes down to merit he really should have no chance to win.

Comments
2006-09-11 21:13:50
1.   Xeifrank
Ok, I followed you until the 911 press misled comment.
vr, Xei

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