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Best Player Years?
2006-08-18 22:59
by Mike Carminati

I'm working on a new evaluation system for trades, and accidentally tripped upon a system for evaluating player years. I ran the numbers for the average win shares per game for position players and pitchers (separately) for every season. Then I calculated the Win Shares for each player year above that baseline (WSAB).

It may not be the most elegant system for evaluating players, but a) it beats regular old Win Shares and b) it produces keen tables aplenty, which I love. So here are the best player years of all time:

NameYrWin Shares BatWS FieldWS PitchWS WS Baseline WSAB
Bob Caruthers188754 17.9 1.8 33.9 12.0 42.0
Honus Wagner190859 49.2 9.7 - 17.0 42.0
Charley Radbourn188489 5.6 0.4 83.1 47.3 41.7
Barry Bonds200154 52.2 1.6 - 14.0 40.0
Barry Bonds200453 50.4 2.7 - 14.0 39.0
Babe Ruth192355 48.5 6.2 - 16.0 39.0
Mickey Mantle195751 46.1 5.0 - 14.0 37.0
Babe Ruth192153 47.7 5.0 - 16.0 37.0
Barry Bonds200249 46.8 2.1 - 13.0 36.0
Babe Ruth192051 47.9 3.3 0.2 15.0 36.0
Bob Caruthers188846 8.5 1.6 35.7 11.0 35.0
Mickey Mantle195649 43.8 4.8 - 14.0 35.0
Tris Speaker191251 41.6 9.9 - 16.0 35.0
Mickey Mantle196148 43.0 4.9 - 14.0 34.0
Ted Williams194649 45.1 4.0 - 15.0 34.0
Silver King188871 5.2 - 66.3 37.6 33.4
Walter Johnson191354 3.8 - 50.3 20.6 33.4
Barry Bonds199347 44.0 2.7 - 14.0 33.0
Charlie Sweeney188467 13.0 0.8 53.8 34.3 32.7
Ty Cobb191548 41.6 6.4 - 16.0 32.0
Bob Caruthers188657 16.9 0.9 38.9 25.7 31.3
Dave Foutz188743 14.9 1.7 26.7 12.0 31.0
Ted Williams194246 41.5 4.6 - 15.0 31.0
Joe Morgan197544 36.2 7.8 - 13.0 31.0
Rogers Hornsby192247 42.9 4.0 - 16.0 31.0
Ty Cobb191147 41.3 6.0 - 16.0 31.0
Stan Musial194846 42.4 3.9 - 15.0 31.0
Babe Ruth192645 42.6 2.6 - 15.0 30.0
Ty Cobb191746 40.4 5.5 - 16.0 30.0
Babe Ruth191840 24.7 2.5 12.7 10.0 30.0
Nap Lajoie191047 40.4 6.2 - 17.0 30.0
Honus Wagner190646 34.2 11.3 - 16.0 30.0
Will Clark198944 41.1 2.7 - 14.0 30.0
Ty Cobb191045 40.0 5.4 - 15.0 30.0
Babe Ruth192745 40.5 4.1 - 15.0 30.0
Babe Ruth192845 42.7 2.2 - 16.0 29.0
Tris Speaker191445 36.5 8.9 - 16.0 29.0
Stan Musial194644 40.9 3.2 - 15.0 29.0
Honus Wagner190546 36.8 9.6 - 17.0 29.0
Adonis Terry189041 13.1 1.5 26.2 12.0 29.0
Babe Ruth192445 41.7 2.9 - 16.0 29.0
Babe Ruth191943 33.5 2.0 7.9 14.0 29.0
Billy Taylor188465 12.1 0.7 52.7 36.4 28.6
Dave Foutz188662 8.6 1.3 52.3 33.5 28.5
Lou Gehrig192744 41.5 2.6 - 16.0 28.0
Honus Wagner190443 38.1 4.9 - 15.0 28.0
Honus Wagner190744 36.4 7.7 - 16.0 28.0
Barry Bonds199241 37.8 3.0 - 13.0 28.0
Willie Mays196543 35.0 8.1 - 15.0 28.0
Ted Williams194744 41.1 3.4 - 16.0 28.0

Now, here are each players stats for the given years:

NameYrRHRRBIBAOBPSLUGOPSWLPCTSV ERA WHIP K-9IP
Bob Caruthers1887102873.357.463.5471.010299.7630 3.30 1.17 1.95
Honus Wagner190810010109.354.415.542.957
Charley Radbourn188448137.230.282.263.5455912.8311 1.38 0.92 5.85
Barry Bonds200112973137.328.515.8631.379
Barry Bonds200412945101.362.609.8121.422
Babe Ruth192315241131.393.545.7641.309
Mickey Mantle19571213494.365.512.6651.177
Babe Ruth192117759171.378.512.8461.359201.0000 9.00 2.56 2.00
Barry Bonds200211746110.370.582.7991.381
Babe Ruth192015854137.376.533.8491.382101.0000 4.50 1.25 -
Bob Caruthers188858553.230.328.334.6622915.6590 2.39 1.00 3.22
Mickey Mantle195613252130.353.464.7051.169
Tris Speaker19121361090.383.464.5671.031
Mickey Mantle196113254128.317.448.6871.135
Ted Williams194614238123.342.497.6671.164
Silver King188825114.208.339.300.6384521.6820 1.64 0.88 3.96
Walter Johnson191312214.261.293.433.726367.8372 1.14 0.78 6.32
Barry Bonds199312946123.336.458.6771.136
Charlie Sweeney188455219.307.347.404.7514115.7321 1.70 0.82 6.16
Ty Cobb1915144399.369.486.487.973
Bob Caruthers188691461.334.448.527.9743014.6820 2.32 1.06 3.86
Dave Foutz1887794108.357.393.508.9012512.6760 3.87 1.35 2.49
Ted Williams194214136137.356.499.6481.147
Joe Morgan19751071794.327.466.508.974
Rogers Hornsby192214142152.401.459.7221.181
Ty Cobb19111478127.420.467.6211.088
Stan Musial194813539131.376.450.7021.152
Babe Ruth192613947150.372.516.7371.253
Ty Cobb19171076102.383.444.5701.014
Babe Ruth1918501166.300.411.555.966137.6500 2.22 1.05 2.16
Nap Lajoie191094476.384.445.514.960
Honus Wagner1906103271.339.416.459.875
Will Clark198910423111.333.407.546.953
Ty Cobb1910106891.383.456.5511.008
Babe Ruth192715860164.356.486.7721.258
Babe Ruth192816354142.323.463.7091.172
Tris Speaker1914101490.338.423.503.92600.0000 9.00 2.00 -
Stan Musial194612416103.365.434.5871.021
Honus Wagner19051146101.363.427.505.932
Adonis Terry189063459.278.356.408.7642616.6190 2.94 1.34 4.50
Babe Ruth192414346121.378.513.7391.252
Babe Ruth191910329114.322.456.6571.11495.6431 2.97 1.55 2.03
Billy Taylor18845230.323.345.471.8174316.7294 2.10 1.03 4.89
Dave Foutz188666359.280.297.389.6864116.7191 2.11 1.12 5.05
Lou Gehrig192714947175.373.474.7651.240
Honus Wagner190497475.349.423.520.944
Honus Wagner190798682.350.408.513.921
Barry Bonds199210934103.311.456.6241.080
Willie Mays196511852112.317.398.6451.043
Ted Williams194712532114.343.499.6341.133

"Bob Caruthers?!?" you say in disgust. Well one limitation of this sort of evaluation is by splitting players up by position player or pitcher, it has great difficulty dealing with those players, like Caruthers, who played both well in baseball's early years. Caruthers was a 29-9 pitcher with a 1.010 OPS. Maybe it is the best season of all time.

Then again, this approach is intended to evaluate trades which were far more prevalent in baseball's "modern" period. For kicks, I ran the numbers for the last 50 years. They seem to track very well with what one would anticipate. So here goes…

NameYrWin Shares BatWS FieldWS WS Baseline WSAB RHRRBIBAOBPSLUGOPS
Barry Bonds200154 52.2 1.6 14.0 40.0 12973137.328.515.8631.379
Barry Bonds200453 50.4 2.7 14.0 39.0 12945101.362.609.8121.422
Mickey Mantle195751 46.1 5.0 14.0 37.0 1213494.365.512.6651.177
Barry Bonds200249 46.8 2.1 13.0 36.0 11746110.370.582.7991.381
Mickey Mantle195649 43.8 4.8 14.0 35.0 13252130.353.464.7051.169
Mickey Mantle196148 43.0 4.9 14.0 34.0 13254128.317.448.6871.135
Barry Bonds199347 44.0 2.7 14.0 33.0 12946123.336.458.6771.136
Joe Morgan197544 36.2 7.8 13.0 31.0 1071794.327.466.508.974
Will Clark198944 41.1 2.7 14.0 30.0 10423111.333.407.546.953
Willie Mays196543 35.0 8.1 15.0 28.0 11852112.317.398.6451.043
Barry Bonds199241 37.8 3.0 13.0 28.0 10934103.311.456.6241.080
Mark McGwire199841 39.5 1.4 14.0 27.0 13070147.299.470.7521.222
Rickey Henderson199039 35.3 3.6 12.0 27.0 1192861.325.439.5771.016
Mickey Mantle195541 34.1 6.9 14.0 27.0 1213799.306.431.6111.042
Sammy Sosa200142 39.2 3.2 15.0 27.0 14664160.328.437.7371.174
Reggie Jackson196941 38.0 2.6 14.0 27.0 12347118.275.410.6081.018
Norm Cash196142 39.1 3.2 15.0 27.0 11941132.361.487.6621.148
Barry Bonds200339 36.1 3.2 12.0 27.0 1114590.341.529.7491.278
Carl Yastrzemski196742 38.2 4.0 15.0 27.0 11244121.326.418.6221.040
Frank Robinson196241 36.3 4.5 15.0 26.0 13439136.342.421.6241.045
Frank Robinson196641 38.0 2.7 15.0 26.0 12249122.316.410.6371.047
Willie Mays196241 34.1 6.7 15.0 26.0 13049141.304.384.615.999
Joe Morgan197340 33.5 7.0 14.0 26.0 1162682.290.406.493.899
Albert Pujols200341 38.9 2.2 15.0 26.0 13743124.359.439.6671.106
Willie Mays195840 33.4 6.1 14.0 26.0 1212996.347.419.5831.002
Jeff Bagwell199641 38.6 2.1 15.0 26.0 11131120.315.451.5701.021
Hank Aaron196341 37.2 3.5 15.0 26.0 12144130.319.391.586.977
Dick Allen197240 37.6 2.9 14.0 26.0 9037113.308.420.6031.023
George Brett198036 31.5 4.5 10.0 26.0 8724118.390.454.6641.118
Frank Thomas199739 38.7 0.4 13.0 26.0 11035125.347.456.6111.067
Joe Torre197141 38.4 2.2 15.0 26.0 9724137.363.421.555.976
Dick Allen196441 34.9 5.6 15.0 26.0 1252991.318.382.557.939
Ted Williams195738 35.2 2.7 12.0 26.0 963887.388.526.7311.257
Willie Mays195540 34.8 5.0 15.0 25.0 12351127.319.400.6591.059
Mike Piazza199739 32.3 6.4 14.0 25.0 10440124.362.431.6381.070
Albert Pujols200440 37.6 2.1 15.0 25.0 13346123.331.415.6571.072
Ken Caminiti199638 30.9 6.9 13.0 25.0 10940130.326.408.6211.028
Willie McCovey196939 37.3 2.0 14.0 25.0 10145126.320.453.6561.108
Jose Canseco198839 36.2 2.7 14.0 25.0 12042124.307.391.569.959
Rickey Henderson198538 32.4 5.3 13.0 25.0 1462472.314.419.516.934
Robin Yount198239 32.4 6.3 14.0 25.0 12929114.331.379.578.957
Mickey Mantle195839 35.7 3.8 14.0 25.0 1274297.304.443.5921.035
Barry Bonds199639 37.3 1.7 14.0 25.0 12242129.308.461.6151.076
Joe Morgan197239 32.6 6.8 14.0 25.0 1221673.292.417.435.851
Tony Gwynn199739 37.5 1.1 14.0 25.0 9717119.372.409.547.957
Joe Morgan197637 32.6 4.2 13.0 24.0 11327111.320.444.5761.020
Kevin Mitchell198938 35.4 2.3 14.0 24.0 10047125.291.388.6351.023
Willie Mays196038 32.6 5.2 14.0 24.0 10729103.319.381.555.936
Eddie Mathews196038 35.0 2.9 14.0 24.0 10839124.277.397.551.948
Hank Aaron195938 35.4 2.1 14.0 24.0 11639123.355.401.6361.037
Howard Johnson198938 34.8 3.1 14.0 24.0 10436101.287.369.559.928
Jason Giambi200038 35.6 2.5 14.0 24.0 10843137.333.476.6471.123
Barry Bonds199037 32.5 4.2 13.0 24.0 10433114.301.406.565.970
Wade Boggs198637 30.7 6.1 13.0 24.0 107871.357.453.486.939
Mike Schmidt198237 30.8 5.8 13.0 24.0 1083587.280.403.547.949
Scott Rolen200438 32.5 5.6 14.0 24.0 10934124.314.409.5981.007
Ryne Sandberg198438 28.9 9.5 14.0 24.0 1141984.314.367.520.887
Joe Morgan197437 31.0 5.9 13.0 24.0 1072267.293.427.494.921
Alex Rodriguez200037 28.8 8.4 13.0 24.0 13441132.316.420.6061.026
Mike Schmidt198037 30.7 6.7 13.0 24.0 10448121.286.380.6241.004
Mike Schmidt197439 30.1 8.6 15.0 24.0 10836116.282.395.546.941
Hank Aaron196938 33.3 4.5 14.0 24.0 1004497.300.396.6071.003
Dave Parker197837 32.7 3.8 13.0 24.0 10230117.334.394.585.979
Carl Yastrzemski196839 35.7 3.3 15.0 24.0 902374.301.426.495.922
Bobby Murcer197138 34.4 3.0 14.0 24.0 942594.331.427.543.969

A Quick Programming Note: I will be on vacation until Wednesday. Leave it to my wife to schedule a vacation during a five-game Yankee-Red Sox series.

Oh, and by the by, I looked up all the non-extra inning games that took the longest to play. Oh, the reason for this being that the Yanks topped the Sox 14-11 in reportedly the longest game of none innings or less. 4:45. Here is what I found in Retrosheet. I believe the low-scoring ones that appear at the top include some sort of game delays. Anyway, here 'tis:

DateVisiting teamRHome teamR Time (Hrs) Innings
19620721SLN3HOU7 8.00 8.5
19910628PIT6MON1 7.63 9.0
19590610KC14NYA6 4.52 8.5
20011005LAN11SFN10 4.45 9.0
19970905BAL13NYA9 4.37 9.0
20000511MIL14CHN8 4.37 9.0
19960430NYA13BAL10 4.35 9.0
20000831CLE7TEX14 4.35 8.5
19960517SEA13BAL14 4.33 8.8
19960630LAN15COL16 4.33 8.8
19970405DET15CHA12 4.33 9.0
20000416SLN13COL14 4.32 8.5
Comments
2006-08-18 23:49:37
1.   Travis
Just checked the top three games - unfortunately, they all look like errors in the Retrosheet data.

The St. Louis-Houston game from 1962 was the night game of a day-night doubleheader - perhaps 8:00 was the time the game started? The New York Times box score from the day has the game time as 2:27.

The Pittsburgh-Montreal game from 1991 was a night game with the roof closed - 7:38 is probably the start time as well. The NYT box score has the game time as 7:38, but that's probably a mistake.

The Kansas City-Yankees game time from 1959 is probably the time when the game ended . The NYT game time is 2:31, and the game was scheduled to start at 2 p.m.

2006-08-19 06:59:35
2.   studes
Mike, is this really WSAA, Win Shares Above Average? Definitely an improvement over regular WS. Here's something I wrote about the concept three (!) years ago:

http://www.baseballgraphs.com/main/index.php/article/batting_game_shares/

I calculated historical WSAA at the same time, too, but I'm not sure what I did with my spreadsheets!

2006-08-19 12:31:51
3.   Bluebleeder87
Bob Caruthers 1887 102 8 73 .357 .463 .547 1.010 29 9 .763 0 3.30 1.17 1.95

that's the first time I hear of that guy.

2006-08-19 17:21:01
4.   Yankee in Chicago
Forgive my ignorance--what are Win Shares?
2006-08-20 18:09:45
5.   The High Road
You must have so much time on your hands. Ever consider doing something useful, like volunteering or something?
2006-08-21 14:46:57
6.   rbj
Mike, just have to say that we Yankee fans are real glad the Phillies hired Pat Gillick as the GM. Bobby Abreu is working out fine, and we've even found a spot for Cory Lidle. (Don't mean to gloat; the Phillies really need new ownership.)
2006-08-23 19:58:18
7.   das411
I'm glad the Phils hired Pat too Mike! No way Ed Wade trades for Moyer and Jose without dumping Mathieson...

How long 'til we see some "3 saves by 3 pitchers in 3 games" charts?

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