Baseball Toaster: Mike's Baseball Rants : Best Player Years?

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Best Player Years?

2006-08-18 22:59

by Mike Carminati

I'm working on a new evaluation system for trades, and accidentally tripped upon a system for evaluating player years. I ran the numbers for the average win shares per game for position players and pitchers (separately) for every season. Then I calculated the Win Shares for each player year above that baseline (WSAB).

It may not be the most elegant system for evaluating players, but a) it beats regular old Win Shares and b) it produces keen tables aplenty, which I love. So here are the best player years of all time:

Name	Yr	Win Shares	BatWS	FieldWS	PitchWS	WS Baseline	WSAB
Bob Caruthers	1887	54	17.9	1.8	33.9	12.0	42.0
Honus Wagner	1908	59	49.2	9.7	-	17.0	42.0
Charley Radbourn	1884	89	5.6	0.4	83.1	47.3	41.7
Barry Bonds	2001	54	52.2	1.6	-	14.0	40.0
Barry Bonds	2004	53	50.4	2.7	-	14.0	39.0
Babe Ruth	1923	55	48.5	6.2	-	16.0	39.0
Mickey Mantle	1957	51	46.1	5.0	-	14.0	37.0
Babe Ruth	1921	53	47.7	5.0	-	16.0	37.0
Barry Bonds	2002	49	46.8	2.1	-	13.0	36.0
Babe Ruth	1920	51	47.9	3.3	0.2	15.0	36.0
Bob Caruthers	1888	46	8.5	1.6	35.7	11.0	35.0
Mickey Mantle	1956	49	43.8	4.8	-	14.0	35.0
Tris Speaker	1912	51	41.6	9.9	-	16.0	35.0
Mickey Mantle	1961	48	43.0	4.9	-	14.0	34.0
Ted Williams	1946	49	45.1	4.0	-	15.0	34.0
Silver King	1888	71	5.2	-	66.3	37.6	33.4
Walter Johnson	1913	54	3.8	-	50.3	20.6	33.4
Barry Bonds	1993	47	44.0	2.7	-	14.0	33.0
Charlie Sweeney	1884	67	13.0	0.8	53.8	34.3	32.7
Ty Cobb	1915	48	41.6	6.4	-	16.0	32.0
Bob Caruthers	1886	57	16.9	0.9	38.9	25.7	31.3
Dave Foutz	1887	43	14.9	1.7	26.7	12.0	31.0
Ted Williams	1942	46	41.5	4.6	-	15.0	31.0
Joe Morgan	1975	44	36.2	7.8	-	13.0	31.0
Rogers Hornsby	1922	47	42.9	4.0	-	16.0	31.0
Ty Cobb	1911	47	41.3	6.0	-	16.0	31.0
Stan Musial	1948	46	42.4	3.9	-	15.0	31.0
Babe Ruth	1926	45	42.6	2.6	-	15.0	30.0
Ty Cobb	1917	46	40.4	5.5	-	16.0	30.0
Babe Ruth	1918	40	24.7	2.5	12.7	10.0	30.0
Nap Lajoie	1910	47	40.4	6.2	-	17.0	30.0
Honus Wagner	1906	46	34.2	11.3	-	16.0	30.0
Will Clark	1989	44	41.1	2.7	-	14.0	30.0
Ty Cobb	1910	45	40.0	5.4	-	15.0	30.0
Babe Ruth	1927	45	40.5	4.1	-	15.0	30.0
Babe Ruth	1928	45	42.7	2.2	-	16.0	29.0
Tris Speaker	1914	45	36.5	8.9	-	16.0	29.0
Stan Musial	1946	44	40.9	3.2	-	15.0	29.0
Honus Wagner	1905	46	36.8	9.6	-	17.0	29.0
Adonis Terry	1890	41	13.1	1.5	26.2	12.0	29.0
Babe Ruth	1924	45	41.7	2.9	-	16.0	29.0
Babe Ruth	1919	43	33.5	2.0	7.9	14.0	29.0
Billy Taylor	1884	65	12.1	0.7	52.7	36.4	28.6
Dave Foutz	1886	62	8.6	1.3	52.3	33.5	28.5
Lou Gehrig	1927	44	41.5	2.6	-	16.0	28.0
Honus Wagner	1904	43	38.1	4.9	-	15.0	28.0
Honus Wagner	1907	44	36.4	7.7	-	16.0	28.0
Barry Bonds	1992	41	37.8	3.0	-	13.0	28.0
Willie Mays	1965	43	35.0	8.1	-	15.0	28.0
Ted Williams	1947	44	41.1	3.4	-	16.0	28.0

Now, here are each players stats for the given years:

Name	Yr	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLUG	OPS	W	L	PCT	SV	ERA	WHIP	K-9IP
Bob Caruthers	1887	102	8	73	.357	.463	.547	1.010	29	9	.763	0	3.30	1.17	1.95
Honus Wagner	1908	100	10	109	.354	.415	.542	.957
Charley Radbourn	1884	48	1	37	.230	.282	.263	.545	59	12	.831	1	1.38	0.92	5.85
Barry Bonds	2001	129	73	137	.328	.515	.863	1.379
Barry Bonds	2004	129	45	101	.362	.609	.812	1.422
Babe Ruth	1923	152	41	131	.393	.545	.764	1.309
Mickey Mantle	1957	121	34	94	.365	.512	.665	1.177
Babe Ruth	1921	177	59	171	.378	.512	.846	1.359	2	0	1.000	0	9.00	2.56	2.00
Barry Bonds	2002	117	46	110	.370	.582	.799	1.381
Babe Ruth	1920	158	54	137	.376	.533	.849	1.382	1	0	1.000	0	4.50	1.25	-
Bob Caruthers	1888	58	5	53	.230	.328	.334	.662	29	15	.659	0	2.39	1.00	3.22
Mickey Mantle	1956	132	52	130	.353	.464	.705	1.169
Tris Speaker	1912	136	10	90	.383	.464	.567	1.031
Mickey Mantle	1961	132	54	128	.317	.448	.687	1.135
Ted Williams	1946	142	38	123	.342	.497	.667	1.164
Silver King	1888	25	1	14	.208	.339	.300	.638	45	21	.682	0	1.64	0.88	3.96
Walter Johnson	1913	12	2	14	.261	.293	.433	.726	36	7	.837	2	1.14	0.78	6.32
Barry Bonds	1993	129	46	123	.336	.458	.677	1.136
Charlie Sweeney	1884	55	2	19	.307	.347	.404	.751	41	15	.732	1	1.70	0.82	6.16
Ty Cobb	1915	144	3	99	.369	.486	.487	.973
Bob Caruthers	1886	91	4	61	.334	.448	.527	.974	30	14	.682	0	2.32	1.06	3.86
Dave Foutz	1887	79	4	108	.357	.393	.508	.901	25	12	.676	0	3.87	1.35	2.49
Ted Williams	1942	141	36	137	.356	.499	.648	1.147
Joe Morgan	1975	107	17	94	.327	.466	.508	.974
Rogers Hornsby	1922	141	42	152	.401	.459	.722	1.181
Ty Cobb	1911	147	8	127	.420	.467	.621	1.088
Stan Musial	1948	135	39	131	.376	.450	.702	1.152
Babe Ruth	1926	139	47	150	.372	.516	.737	1.253
Ty Cobb	1917	107	6	102	.383	.444	.570	1.014
Babe Ruth	1918	50	11	66	.300	.411	.555	.966	13	7	.650	0	2.22	1.05	2.16
Nap Lajoie	1910	94	4	76	.384	.445	.514	.960
Honus Wagner	1906	103	2	71	.339	.416	.459	.875
Will Clark	1989	104	23	111	.333	.407	.546	.953
Ty Cobb	1910	106	8	91	.383	.456	.551	1.008
Babe Ruth	1927	158	60	164	.356	.486	.772	1.258
Babe Ruth	1928	163	54	142	.323	.463	.709	1.172
Tris Speaker	1914	101	4	90	.338	.423	.503	.926	0	0	.000	0	9.00	2.00	-
Stan Musial	1946	124	16	103	.365	.434	.587	1.021
Honus Wagner	1905	114	6	101	.363	.427	.505	.932
Adonis Terry	1890	63	4	59	.278	.356	.408	.764	26	16	.619	0	2.94	1.34	4.50
Babe Ruth	1924	143	46	121	.378	.513	.739	1.252
Babe Ruth	1919	103	29	114	.322	.456	.657	1.114	9	5	.643	1	2.97	1.55	2.03
Billy Taylor	1884	52	3	0	.323	.345	.471	.817	43	16	.729	4	2.10	1.03	4.89
Dave Foutz	1886	66	3	59	.280	.297	.389	.686	41	16	.719	1	2.11	1.12	5.05
Lou Gehrig	1927	149	47	175	.373	.474	.765	1.240
Honus Wagner	1904	97	4	75	.349	.423	.520	.944
Honus Wagner	1907	98	6	82	.350	.408	.513	.921
Barry Bonds	1992	109	34	103	.311	.456	.624	1.080
Willie Mays	1965	118	52	112	.317	.398	.645	1.043
Ted Williams	1947	125	32	114	.343	.499	.634	1.133

"Bob Caruthers?!?" you say in disgust. Well one limitation of this sort of evaluation is by splitting players up by position player or pitcher, it has great difficulty dealing with those players, like Caruthers, who played both well in baseball's early years. Caruthers was a 29-9 pitcher with a 1.010 OPS. Maybe it is the best season of all time.

Then again, this approach is intended to evaluate trades which were far more prevalent in baseball's "modern" period. For kicks, I ran the numbers for the last 50 years. They seem to track very well with what one would anticipate. So here goes…

Name	Yr	Win Shares	BatWS	FieldWS	WS Baseline	WSAB	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLUG	OPS
Barry Bonds	2001	54	52.2	1.6	14.0	40.0	129	73	137	.328	.515	.863	1.379
Barry Bonds	2004	53	50.4	2.7	14.0	39.0	129	45	101	.362	.609	.812	1.422
Mickey Mantle	1957	51	46.1	5.0	14.0	37.0	121	34	94	.365	.512	.665	1.177
Barry Bonds	2002	49	46.8	2.1	13.0	36.0	117	46	110	.370	.582	.799	1.381
Mickey Mantle	1956	49	43.8	4.8	14.0	35.0	132	52	130	.353	.464	.705	1.169
Mickey Mantle	1961	48	43.0	4.9	14.0	34.0	132	54	128	.317	.448	.687	1.135
Barry Bonds	1993	47	44.0	2.7	14.0	33.0	129	46	123	.336	.458	.677	1.136
Joe Morgan	1975	44	36.2	7.8	13.0	31.0	107	17	94	.327	.466	.508	.974
Will Clark	1989	44	41.1	2.7	14.0	30.0	104	23	111	.333	.407	.546	.953
Willie Mays	1965	43	35.0	8.1	15.0	28.0	118	52	112	.317	.398	.645	1.043
Barry Bonds	1992	41	37.8	3.0	13.0	28.0	109	34	103	.311	.456	.624	1.080
Mark McGwire	1998	41	39.5	1.4	14.0	27.0	130	70	147	.299	.470	.752	1.222
Rickey Henderson	1990	39	35.3	3.6	12.0	27.0	119	28	61	.325	.439	.577	1.016
Mickey Mantle	1955	41	34.1	6.9	14.0	27.0	121	37	99	.306	.431	.611	1.042
Sammy Sosa	2001	42	39.2	3.2	15.0	27.0	146	64	160	.328	.437	.737	1.174
Reggie Jackson	1969	41	38.0	2.6	14.0	27.0	123	47	118	.275	.410	.608	1.018
Norm Cash	1961	42	39.1	3.2	15.0	27.0	119	41	132	.361	.487	.662	1.148
Barry Bonds	2003	39	36.1	3.2	12.0	27.0	111	45	90	.341	.529	.749	1.278
Carl Yastrzemski	1967	42	38.2	4.0	15.0	27.0	112	44	121	.326	.418	.622	1.040
Frank Robinson	1962	41	36.3	4.5	15.0	26.0	134	39	136	.342	.421	.624	1.045
Frank Robinson	1966	41	38.0	2.7	15.0	26.0	122	49	122	.316	.410	.637	1.047
Willie Mays	1962	41	34.1	6.7	15.0	26.0	130	49	141	.304	.384	.615	.999
Joe Morgan	1973	40	33.5	7.0	14.0	26.0	116	26	82	.290	.406	.493	.899
Albert Pujols	2003	41	38.9	2.2	15.0	26.0	137	43	124	.359	.439	.667	1.106
Willie Mays	1958	40	33.4	6.1	14.0	26.0	121	29	96	.347	.419	.583	1.002
Jeff Bagwell	1996	41	38.6	2.1	15.0	26.0	111	31	120	.315	.451	.570	1.021
Hank Aaron	1963	41	37.2	3.5	15.0	26.0	121	44	130	.319	.391	.586	.977
Dick Allen	1972	40	37.6	2.9	14.0	26.0	90	37	113	.308	.420	.603	1.023
George Brett	1980	36	31.5	4.5	10.0	26.0	87	24	118	.390	.454	.664	1.118
Frank Thomas	1997	39	38.7	0.4	13.0	26.0	110	35	125	.347	.456	.611	1.067
Joe Torre	1971	41	38.4	2.2	15.0	26.0	97	24	137	.363	.421	.555	.976
Dick Allen	1964	41	34.9	5.6	15.0	26.0	125	29	91	.318	.382	.557	.939
Ted Williams	1957	38	35.2	2.7	12.0	26.0	96	38	87	.388	.526	.731	1.257
Willie Mays	1955	40	34.8	5.0	15.0	25.0	123	51	127	.319	.400	.659	1.059
Mike Piazza	1997	39	32.3	6.4	14.0	25.0	104	40	124	.362	.431	.638	1.070
Albert Pujols	2004	40	37.6	2.1	15.0	25.0	133	46	123	.331	.415	.657	1.072
Ken Caminiti	1996	38	30.9	6.9	13.0	25.0	109	40	130	.326	.408	.621	1.028
Willie McCovey	1969	39	37.3	2.0	14.0	25.0	101	45	126	.320	.453	.656	1.108
Jose Canseco	1988	39	36.2	2.7	14.0	25.0	120	42	124	.307	.391	.569	.959
Rickey Henderson	1985	38	32.4	5.3	13.0	25.0	146	24	72	.314	.419	.516	.934
Robin Yount	1982	39	32.4	6.3	14.0	25.0	129	29	114	.331	.379	.578	.957
Mickey Mantle	1958	39	35.7	3.8	14.0	25.0	127	42	97	.304	.443	.592	1.035
Barry Bonds	1996	39	37.3	1.7	14.0	25.0	122	42	129	.308	.461	.615	1.076
Joe Morgan	1972	39	32.6	6.8	14.0	25.0	122	16	73	.292	.417	.435	.851
Tony Gwynn	1997	39	37.5	1.1	14.0	25.0	97	17	119	.372	.409	.547	.957
Joe Morgan	1976	37	32.6	4.2	13.0	24.0	113	27	111	.320	.444	.576	1.020
Kevin Mitchell	1989	38	35.4	2.3	14.0	24.0	100	47	125	.291	.388	.635	1.023
Willie Mays	1960	38	32.6	5.2	14.0	24.0	107	29	103	.319	.381	.555	.936
Eddie Mathews	1960	38	35.0	2.9	14.0	24.0	108	39	124	.277	.397	.551	.948
Hank Aaron	1959	38	35.4	2.1	14.0	24.0	116	39	123	.355	.401	.636	1.037
Howard Johnson	1989	38	34.8	3.1	14.0	24.0	104	36	101	.287	.369	.559	.928
Jason Giambi	2000	38	35.6	2.5	14.0	24.0	108	43	137	.333	.476	.647	1.123
Barry Bonds	1990	37	32.5	4.2	13.0	24.0	104	33	114	.301	.406	.565	.970
Wade Boggs	1986	37	30.7	6.1	13.0	24.0	107	8	71	.357	.453	.486	.939
Mike Schmidt	1982	37	30.8	5.8	13.0	24.0	108	35	87	.280	.403	.547	.949
Scott Rolen	2004	38	32.5	5.6	14.0	24.0	109	34	124	.314	.409	.598	1.007
Ryne Sandberg	1984	38	28.9	9.5	14.0	24.0	114	19	84	.314	.367	.520	.887
Joe Morgan	1974	37	31.0	5.9	13.0	24.0	107	22	67	.293	.427	.494	.921
Alex Rodriguez	2000	37	28.8	8.4	13.0	24.0	134	41	132	.316	.420	.606	1.026
Mike Schmidt	1980	37	30.7	6.7	13.0	24.0	104	48	121	.286	.380	.624	1.004
Mike Schmidt	1974	39	30.1	8.6	15.0	24.0	108	36	116	.282	.395	.546	.941
Hank Aaron	1969	38	33.3	4.5	14.0	24.0	100	44	97	.300	.396	.607	1.003
Dave Parker	1978	37	32.7	3.8	13.0	24.0	102	30	117	.334	.394	.585	.979
Carl Yastrzemski	1968	39	35.7	3.3	15.0	24.0	90	23	74	.301	.426	.495	.922
Bobby Murcer	1971	38	34.4	3.0	14.0	24.0	94	25	94	.331	.427	.543	.969

A Quick Programming Note: I will be on vacation until Wednesday. Leave it to my wife to schedule a vacation during a five-game Yankee-Red Sox series.

Oh, and by the by, I looked up all the non-extra inning games that took the longest to play. Oh, the reason for this being that the Yanks topped the Sox 14-11 in reportedly the longest game of none innings or less. 4:45. Here is what I found in Retrosheet. I believe the low-scoring ones that appear at the top include some sort of game delays. Anyway, here 'tis:

Date	Visiting team	R	Home team	R	Time (Hrs)	Innings
19620721	SLN	3	HOU	7	8.00	8.5
19910628	PIT	6	MON	1	7.63	9.0
19590610	KC1	4	NYA	6	4.52	8.5
20011005	LAN	11	SFN	10	4.45	9.0
19970905	BAL	13	NYA	9	4.37	9.0
20000511	MIL	14	CHN	8	4.37	9.0
19960430	NYA	13	BAL	10	4.35	9.0
20000831	CLE	7	TEX	14	4.35	8.5
19960517	SEA	13	BAL	14	4.33	8.8
19960630	LAN	15	COL	16	4.33	8.8
19970405	DET	15	CHA	12	4.33	9.0
20000416	SLN	13	COL	14	4.32	8.5

Comments

2006-08-18 23:49:37

1. Travis

Just checked the top three games - unfortunately, they all look like errors in the Retrosheet data.

The St. Louis-Houston game from 1962 was the night game of a day-night doubleheader - perhaps 8:00 was the time the game started? The New York Times box score from the day has the game time as 2:27.

The Pittsburgh-Montreal game from 1991 was a night game with the roof closed - 7:38 is probably the start time as well. The NYT box score has the game time as 7:38, but that's probably a mistake.

The Kansas City-Yankees game time from 1959 is probably the time when the game ended . The NYT game time is 2:31, and the game was scheduled to start at 2 p.m.

2006-08-19 06:59:35

2. studes

Mike, is this really WSAA, Win Shares Above Average? Definitely an improvement over regular WS. Here's something I wrote about the concept three (!) years ago:

http://www.baseballgraphs.com/main/index.php/article/batting_game_shares/

I calculated historical WSAA at the same time, too, but I'm not sure what I did with my spreadsheets!

2006-08-19 12:31:51

3. Bluebleeder87

Bob Caruthers 1887 102 8 73 .357 .463 .547 1.010 29 9 .763 0 3.30 1.17 1.95

that's the first time I hear of that guy.

2006-08-19 17:21:01

4. Yankee in Chicago

Forgive my ignorance--what are Win Shares?

2006-08-20 18:09:45

5. The High Road

You must have so much time on your hands. Ever consider doing something useful, like volunteering or something?

2006-08-21 14:46:57

6. rbj

Mike, just have to say that we Yankee fans are real glad the Phillies hired Pat Gillick as the GM. Bobby Abreu is working out fine, and we've even found a spot for Cory Lidle. (Don't mean to gloat; the Phillies really need new ownership.)

2006-08-23 19:58:18

7. das411

I'm glad the Phils hired Pat too Mike! No way Ed Wade trades for Moyer and Jose without dumping Mathieson...

How long 'til we see some "3 saves by 3 pitchers in 3 games" charts?

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