In the American League, the wild card leaders (Chicago as of last night) are on a pace to win 97 games. Two teams (Boston and Minnesota) project to 96 wins but, if the standings hold, won't even make the post season. Meanwhile three other teams that are barely in the wild card hunt are playing .500 ball (and nine in total out of 14 clubs).

In the NL, as of last night's standings, there are eight clubs within striking distance (five games) of the wild card hunt, and all but one club (the Pirates) are within ten games of the wild card leader. And yet that leader, the Reds, has just a .514 winning percentage which would garner them just 83 wins for the season. Of the other seven teams in the wild card hunt, just two are over .500 and they are just one game above mediocrity. The Brewers project to a poor 76-86 record but are now just five games back in the wild card.

Being in contention in the NL might not that discriminating company, but having eleven clubs within five games of a playoff spot as of August 6 is the most for any league in any year. We are looking at teams within five games because I've found that 91% of clubs that have made the playoffs were within five games of a spot by the start of August (93% for those within 7 games, 96% for those within 10). The most previously was ten for the NL last year.

Of course doubling the number of playoff teams in 1994 drove up the number of teams that remain in contention after the first week in August. Before divisional play (1900-68), on average there were just two teams per league that were in contention by August 7 (actually, 2.04), and no league ever had more than five clubs in contention by that date. When the leagues expanded to two divisions (1969-93), there were almost four and a half clubs in contention by August 7 (4.44).

Since the advent of the wild card, there have been on average slightly under seven clubs in contention by August 7 (6.77). The number of clubs per open spots has fallen under two with the wild card since it cannibalizes a lot of the same population as the division chases, but given the two extra spots per league, the number of contenders has gone up considerably.

Anyway, the Reds projection reminded me of the 1973 Mets, who had one of the worst records ever for a playoff team. It made me wonder what was the worst team ever that was still in contention by August 7.

Here are the previous teams with a losing record who were still in contention by August 7 (Add the five sub-.500 NL teams to that list):

That made me wonder what playoff teams had the worst records on August 7. Here goes with their final records:

So even if the lowly Phils or Brewers eventually win the wild card, they still would not have overcome a worse record (.450 winning percentage) or a greater deficit (10 games back) than the 1973 Mets. And that club topped the Big Red Machine in their prime in a five-game LCS.

So what does it all mean? Really nothing that we didn't already know: The NL is a weak league this year and basically any club that makes the playoffs can win especially in a short series.