Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jayson Stark had a good piece on the Bobby Abreu trade yesterday on ESPN. He concluded, "To make this kind of trade, just for the joy of cashing out, simply tells the sport that either you think Abreu is outrageously overrated or your team is in major financial trouble -- or both."
That sums it up for me. For the Phils to have traded Abreu with one year left in his contract, they have to think that his potential contribution to the team in 2007 would not be worth the money. Either that or they are cutting whatever salary they can.
So was Abreu overpaid? Or maybe more to the point, since the Phils are longshots in this year's wild card hunt at best, will Abreu be wildly overpriced in 2007 making the salary dump justifiable? Also, was Abreu's contract overall a Mo Vaughn-ian bust that demanded the Phils trade the former the player?
Being extremely linear, I will address the first question first. I looked up the starting corner outfielders for every team since the 2000 season, the first of Abreu's current contract. For each, I listed the Win Shares, salary, and age. For the 301 player-years that I found, the average corner outfielder produced 18 Win Shares and was paid $4.8 M. This translates into $271K per Win Share. That's what the average team paid per starting corner outfielder Win Share.
The highest paid player was 32-year-old Bobby Higginson in his (and the Tigers') infamous 2003 season. Detroit paid him just under $2M per Win Share that year ($1.975M/WS from an $11.85M salary and 6 Win Shares produced). The cheapest was Lance Berkman in 2001 when the then 25-year-old produced 32 Win Shares for a then league minimum of $305K, which translates into $9,531 per Win Share.
As for Abreu, his 2005 campaign was his most costly ($467,857 per Win Shares), based on 28 Win Shares for $13.1M contract, which was the 63rd highest among the 301 qualifiers. His cheapest year from his current contract was 2000, in which he produced 23 Win Shares for a $2.93M salary, or $127.5K per Win Share, 196th among the 301 corner OF years.
But that's the past: what was Abreu doing this year? Abreu had 18 Win Shares for the Phils, which projects to 28 for the year. His salary is $13.6M this year. That translates into $485K per Win Share. That would land him a bit higher than last year, but just 60th on the list. So, yes, he's slightly overpriced, but not wildly. He had a big contract but produced big.
However, comparing Abreu's contract to the full field of corner outfielders is unfair. Abreu is now 33, and as is the practice in sports is getting paid in part for his past performance. It's not fair to compare his salary today to that of an unproven, typically underpaid 25-year-old.
So I reran the data based on players 30 or older. They produced about the same as the overall corner outfielders (18 Win Shares), but they cost much more ($6,830,195 on average). Their average cost per Win Share was $378,467. Abreu was about a $100K per Win Share cheaper than that in 2004, but was about $90K higher in 2005, and an estimated $100 higher this year. But again his 2006 season would come in just 48th overall among the 149 qualifying thirty-something players. He is in the top third. Again his slightly overpriced, but not much.
Now I'll be non-linear and answer the third question next. Has Abreu's contract been a bust?
Looking at the totals from 2000 to 2005 for all players who were starting corner outfielders during the period, Abreu comes in 42nd costliest among the 129 players. During the period, he amassed 172 Win Shares (averaging 29 per season) and a little over $49M (or $7.84 per season). He cost $273,545 per Win Share over the period.
But consider that the average corner outfielder over the span cost $270,292 per Win Share, Abreu has been paid basically the major-league average for the first six years of his contract. Given the way he has produced, the Phils really made out like bandits for the first six years. Now that the back-loaded deal is finally in Abreu's favor, the Phils felt compelled to dump him.
However, maybe that's being too tough on the team. Could the last two years of Abreu's deal actually make the deal a bust? We know pretty much what Abreu's 2006 totals will look like at season's end (he projects to 28 Win Shares). However, given that he will be 33 in 2007, could the aging process arrive with a vengeance next year and make the overall deal untenable?
To determine that, I looked up all 32-year-old corner outfielders with at least 25 Win Shares throughout baseball history (40 qualified). Abreu is 32 and currently projects to 28 Win Shares. For each player, I then looked at his performance in his next year. On average the players lost 5 Win Shares when they turned 33 years old.
The worst age-33 decline was Sammy Sosa at 15 Win Shares lost (42 in 2001 and 27 in 2002). However, there were seven players who either improved or stayed the same (based on Win Shares). The best improvement was by Luis Gonzalez who went from 27 Win Shares in 2000 to 37, a ten-point improvement, in 2001. The others who did not decline at age 33 were Mel Ott (+9), Hank Aaron (+7), Manny Ramirez (+7), Enos Slaughter (+3), Babe Ruth (no change), and Rickey Henderson (no change).
I don't think it's inconceivable that Abreu could have a better year in 2007 given that all of the trade talk all season seemed to wear on him. But let's assume that he declines by the 33-year-old average, 5 Win Shares. That would give him 23 Win Shares for 2007. Abreu would cost $696K per Win Share. That would be the 25th highest among the 301 corner outfielders from 2000-05.
Using these projections, Bobby Abreu would amass 223 Win Shares over the eight years of his contract (2000-07) and would cost $76.65M. That translates into $343,661 per Win Share. That would make him 31st among all starting corner outfielders using the 2000-05 numbers I quoted earlier. It's about $70K more per Win Share, but is nowhere near the highest paid players.
I see no reason why the Phils can justify dumping Abreu based on his production. The only rationalization is as a salary dump, pure and simple.
By the way, here is some of the data in tabular form that I referred to earlier. First, the most overpaid corner outfielder years:
| Name | Yr | Tm | Win Shares | Salary | Age | $/WS |
| Bobby Higginson | 2003 | DET | 6 | $ 11,850,000 | 32 | $1,975,000 |
| Juan Gonzalez | 2002 | TEX | 6 | $ 11,000,000 | 32 | $1,833,333 |
| Brian Jordan | 2003 | LAN | 7 | $ 9,600,000 | 36 | $1,371,429 |
| Juan Gonzalez | 2003 | TEX | 10 | $ 13,000,000 | 33 | $1,300,000 |
| Sammy Sosa | 2004 | CHN | 14 | $ 16,000,000 | 35 | $1,142,857 |
| Jeromy Burnitz | 2002 | NYN | 7 | $ 7,166,667 | 33 | $1,023,810 |
| Chuck Knoblauch | 2002 | KCA | 2 | $ 2,000,000 | 33 | $1,000,000 |
| Richard Hidalgo | 2005 | TEX | 5 | $ 5,000,000 | 30 | $1,000,000 |
| Jermaine Dye | 2004 | OAK | 12 | $ 11,666,667 | 30 | $ 972,222 |
| Raul Mondesi | 2000 | TOR | 11 | $ 10,000,000 | 29 | $ 909,091 |
| Larry Walker | 2005 | SLN | 14 | $ 12,666,667 | 38 | $ 904,762 |
| Brady Anderson | 2001 | BAL | 8 | $ 7,200,000 | 37 | $ 900,000 |
Here are the most underpaid:
| Name | Yr | Tm | Win Shares | Salary | Age | $/WS |
| Lance Berkman | 2001 | HOU | 32 | $ 305,000 | 25 | $ 9,531 |
| Jason Bay | 2005 | PIT | 34 | $ 355,000 | 26 | $ 10,441 |
| Adam Dunn | 2002 | CIN | 21 | $ 250,000 | 22 | $ 11,905 |
| Brad Wilkerson | 2002 | MON | 17 | $ 206,000 | 25 | $ 12,118 |
| Jacque Jones | 2002 | MIN | 25 | $ 312,500 | 27 | $ 12,500 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 2005 | FLO | 29 | $ 370,000 | 22 | $ 12,759 |
| Adam Dunn | 2004 | CIN | 32 | $ 445,000 | 24 | $ 13,906 |
| Geoff Jenkins | 2000 | MIL | 20 | $ 282,000 | 25 | $ 14,100 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 2004 | FLO | 22 | $ 320,000 | 21 | $ 14,545 |
| Carl Crawford | 2004 | TBA | 21 | $ 320,000 | 22 | $ 15,238 |
| Aubrey Huff | 2003 | TBA | 21 | $ 325,000 | 26 | $ 15,476 |
| Benny Agbayani | 2000 | NYN | 14 | $ 220,000 | 28 | $ 15,714 |
| Mark Quinn | 2000 | KCA | 13 | $ 205,000 | 26 | $ 15,769 |
Here are the most overpaid for the entire period 2000-05 (starting corner OF totals only):
| Name | Win Shares | Salary | $/WS | # Yrs |
| Brady Anderson | 8 | $ 7,200,000 | $900,000 | 1 |
| Juan Gonzalez | 48 | $ 41,500,000 | $864,583 | 4 |
| Albert Belle | 15 | $ 12,868,670 | $857,911 | 1 |
| Raul Mondesi | 26 | $ 21,500,000 | $826,923 | 2 |
| David Justice | 11 | $ 7,000,000 | $636,364 | 1 |
| Al Martin | 8 | $ 5,000,000 | $625,000 | 1 |
| Chuck Knoblauch | 13 | $ 8,000,000 | $615,385 | 2 |
| Larry Walker | 83 | $ 50,166,668 | $604,418 | 4 |
| Richard Hidalgo | 32 | $ 19,000,000 | $593,750 | 3 |
| Ray Lankford | 14 | $ 8,250,000 | $589,286 | 2 |
| Manny Ramirez | 170 | $ 97,262,727 | $572,134 | 6 |
| Brian Jordan | 59 | $ 32,900,000 | $557,627 | 4 |
Now, the cheapest 2000-05:
| Name | Win Shares | Salary | $/WS | # Yrs |
| Jason Bay | 52 | $ 660,000 | $ 12,692 | 2 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 51 | $ 690,000 | $ 13,529 | 2 |
| Brad Wilkerson | 35 | $ 521,000 | $ 14,886 | 2 |
| Mark Quinn | 13 | $ 205,000 | $ 15,769 | 1 |
| Eric Byrnes | 19 | $ 328,000 | $ 17,263 | 1 |
| Carl Crawford | 57 | $ 990,000 | $ 17,368 | 3 |
| Coco Crisp | 21 | $ 364,900 | $ 17,376 | 1 |
| Emil Brown | 20 | $ 355,000 | $ 17,750 | 1 |
| Rob Mackowiak | 12 | $ 227,000 | $ 18,917 | 1 |
| Matt Holliday | 19 | $ 366,000 | $ 19,263 | 1 |
| Chris Richard | 12 | $ 232,500 | $ 19,375 | 1 |
| Terrmel Sledge | 15 | $ 300,000 | $ 20,000 | 1 |
| Albert Pujols | 73 | $ 1,500,000 | $ 20,548 | 2 |
Finally, here are the annual and overall numbers for Abreu:
| Yr | Tm | Win Shares | Salary | Age | $/WS |
| 2000 | PHI | 23 | $ 2,933,333 | 26 | $ 127,536 |
| 2001 | PHI | 27 | $ 4,983,000 | 27 | $ 184,556 |
| 2002 | PHI | 29 | $ 6,333,333 | 28 | $ 218,391 |
| 2003 | PHI | 28 | $ 9,100,000 | 29 | $ 325,000 |
| 2004 | PHI | 37 | $ 10,600,000 | 30 | $ 286,486 |
| 2005 | PHI | 28 | $ 13,100,000 | 31 | $ 467,857 |
| 2006 | PHI-NYY | 28 | $13,600,000 | 32 | $ 485,048 |
| 2007 | NYY | 23 | $ 16,000,000 | 33 | $ 695,652 |
| Total | 223 | $ 76,649,666 | $ 343,661 |
The same can be said for about 7 teams with payrolls at or above $100 million. The Yankees get the bullseye because they are #1, they win a championship every 4 years or so for the last 100, and pull the trigger at every deadline on trades and free agents.
The White Sox won it last year and they're 4th in payroll. Bought it. The Angels won a few years ago and they're 3rd. Bought the title. The Mets may win this year and they're 5th. Buying a championship.
It's just not fair to target the Yankees as the Big Bad Empire. It's unrealistic. Yes, the team's payroll is 25% higher than the #2 Red Sox, but that didn't stop the Sox from humiliating them in 2004. You still have to go out and win it on the field, something the Yankees haven't done in going on 6 years. They lose money on the books every year, but the side businesses are booming. That's entrepreneurial genius.
If every team was so smart, they'd have plenty of money to stay profitable and put money back into the ballclub too. The Yankees, and other high payroll clubs, give money away to the pool of MLB clubs everytime they sign a new player.
Last thing. Free agents want to play in the Bronx, Boston, Flushing, and a couple of other places because there is #1 plenty of money, and #2 a chance to win. Winning culture attracts players as much as the dollars. Who wouldn't want to play at Fenway? Who wouldn't want to stand on the same grass as Babe Ruth?
The poor Royals and Rays spend money stupidly, refuse to spend any of the money that the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, White Sox, etc...dole out in penalty taxes and they suck. Would you want to go there?
Look at the Twins and tell me that it can't be done. They were almost extinct 2 years ago, but they develop talent and make unreal trades (Liriano, Nathan and company for A.J. Pierzinski).
Abreu has been paid basically the major-league average for the first six years of his contract. Given the way he has produced, the Phils really made out like bandits for the first six years
You meant to say that he was paid MLB average, PER WIN SHARE...
That is, Phils did not pay a premium for an Abreu win. A win is a win is a win is how he's been paid.
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