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Line Dancing
2006-05-20 21:57
by Mike Carminati

Sorry, the Yankee 10-run comeback the other day inspired me. I've been busy ever since then trying to incorporate Retrosheet's game log data into my own little data stores. The first results of this data merger are in, and I hope are interesting. As far as the greatest comebacks of all time, the best was from a 12-run deficit, but that's fodder for another day.

I decomposed the linescore information and was able to determine the average results per inning. On average, the home team outscores the visiting team .491 to .475.

The first inning is the highest scoring (.523 runs for the visitors and .615 for the home team). The home team as a matter of fact outscores the visitors in every inning until the ninth, when they destroy the homeys, .460 to .236 (though this does include games in which the home team leads and therefore, does not bat). Then in extra innings, the visitors have an advantage in every frame until small sample size overwhelms them in the 24th inning.

Here's a table of the average score per inning with the lead between innings and at the end of each inning, the number of lead changes expected per each inning, and the total (and percentage) of games for which the given inning is reached:

InningVT RHT RVT MidHT MidVT EndHT EndLead MidLead EndLead ChgG%
1.523.615.523.000.523.615-.523.092.032146164100.00%
2.416.459.939.615.9391.074-.324.135.074146164100.00%
3.468.5271.4071.0741.4071.600-.333.194.134146164100.00%
4.482.5241.8891.6011.8892.124-.288.235.197146164100.00%
5.472.5222.3612.1242.3612.646-.237.285.256146164100.00%
6.496.5352.8562.6452.8563.180-.211.324.31814591899.83%
7.479.5213.3333.1793.3343.700-.154.367.37414555099.58%
8.479.5143.8103.6993.8104.213-.111.404.42614510499.27%
9.460.2364.2674.2124.2674.448-.055.181.47214467598.98%
10.467.3403.9583.4913.9583.830-.467-.128.605136439.33%
11.462.3353.9363.4733.9363.808-.463-.127.60676085.21%
12.447.3443.9293.4813.9293.825-.448-.104.61042412.90%
13.473.3253.9043.4313.9043.756-.474-.149.60123431.60%
14.448.3523.8873.4383.8873.790-.449-.097.60313140.90%
15.473.3103.8893.4153.8893.725-.473-.163.6067100.49%
16.428.3353.8313.4033.8313.738-.428-.093.6683970.27%
17.432.3103.8643.4323.8643.742-.432-.122.6952130.15%
18.348.3134.0353.6874.0354.000-.348-.035.7041150.08%
19.524.3494.2063.6834.2064.032-.524-.175.683630.04%
20.514.2573.8003.2863.8003.543-.514-.257.514350.02%
21.714.3813.5242.8103.5243.190-.714-.333.571210.01%
22.333.2503.7503.4173.7503.667-.333-.083.333120.01%
23.333.0003.3333.0003.3333.000-.333-.333.16760.004%
24.000.2502.5002.5002.5002.750.000.250.25040.003%
25.500.5005.0004.5005.0005.000-.500.0001.00020.001%
Comments
2006-05-20 22:18:26
1.   das411
But Miiiiike, I totally watched that Indians/M's game back in '01...is it time to petition Bob for a not-so-Random Callback?
2006-05-21 16:09:09
2.   Murray
Mike, can you explain how you calculate the expected lead change numbers and the points at which you are saying the lead change occurs? Thanks.
2006-05-21 18:48:16
3.   Mike Carminati
Murray, the lead changes are actual, not expected. They mean that a team took a lead after trailing previously in the game. If it's .562, for example, it means that in 56.2% of all games, a lead change occurred during this inning. (By the way, ties are ignored, as is the first time a team gets a lead. If team A leads 2-1, then team B ties the game 2-2, and then the next inning team B grabs a 3-2 lead, then that's one lead change. If team A leads 2-1, and then falls behind 3-2, that's one lead change. If team A leads 2-1, team B bats in the top of the inning and goes ahead 3-2, and then team A regains the lead in the bottom of the inning, then that's two lead changes. If team A leads 2-1, team B bats in the top of the innings and ties the score, and then team A goes ahead 3-2 in the bottom, then that's zero lead changes. Make sense?)

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