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Phil of Streaking?
2006-05-15 17:52
by Mike Carminati
We're streaking
--Frank The Tank from Old School

The Phils are so hot, they can win a game with just one hitter. Yesterday, they beat the once red-hot Reds, 2-1, in twelve innings with both runs coming from Ryan Howard solo homers. They are now 13-1 in their last fourteen games stretching back to April 30. The only loss came in a 13-4 drubbing at the hands of the division rival Mets four wins ago.

They haven't had a streak this hot since "Streaking" was hot.

This team has never recorded a fourteen-game win streak and has only matched the current 13-1 streak a handful of times (that is, since 1901). This is the sixth season in the last 105 that they have had this hot a streak.

Here are the other 13-1 runs in chronological order:

StartGame #EndGame #RFRAExp PCT
7/12/1908697/27/1908826027.812
7/13/1908707/28/1908835927.807
7/15/1955867/24/1955997650.683
7/16/1955877/24/19551007850.693
7/30/19771018/14/19771149036.842
7/31/19771028/14/19771158535.835
8/2/19771038/16/19771168736.834
8/3/19771048/17/19771178545.762
8/4/19771058/18/19771188547.747
8/5/19771068/19/19771199251.746
8/6/19771078/20/19771208952.728
8/7/19771088/21/19771219555.731
8/10/19771108/23/19771239459.701
8/10/19771098/22/19771229758.719
5/2/1982215/16/1982348947.763
9/14/19831459/26/19831588449.728
9/16/19831489/30/19831618450.721
9/17/198314910/1/19831628651.722
7/28/1991988/12/19911117033.798
7/30/1991998/13/19911127235.789
4/30/2006245/14/2006377549.685
Avg8245.753

The Phils have outscored their opponents by 26 runs even with the 9-run Mets loss.

For each of the seasons above, here are the team's final records and postseason performance if any:

YrTot WTot LPCTPOSGBWon Div?Won Lg?Won WS?
19088371.539416NANN
19557777.500422NANN
197710161.62310YNN
19828973.54923NNN
19839072.55610YYN
19917884.481320NNN
Avg 86.3 73.0 .5422.510210

Two playoff appearances and just one World Series appearance in six tries is not that encouraging. So before you get to crazed about the Phils being two games behind the Mets, keep in mind that this team is eminently mortal.

Even though Howard, Utley, Rowand, and Victorino have had OPS's over 1.000 during the streak, lead-off hitter Jimmy Rollins has quickly returned to mediocrity (.709 OPS in May), this team still has David Bell (.736 OPS in May) eating up at-bats, and the catchers (Lieberthal, .764; Fasano, .663; and Ruiz, .205) have not been lighting Phil and Phyllis Phillie's phire. Though one can point to Bobby Abreu's .626 OPS and say that there's room for improvement.

The pitchers have had even a greater turnaround. John Lieber has gone from execrable (0-4, 7.04 ERA in April) to excellent (3-0, 3.32 ERA in May). The same could be said of rookie Gavin Floyd (2-2, 6.57 in April to 2-0, 2.45 in May). And now uber-prospect Cole Hamels has joined the rotation. Of course, Corey Lidle (7.88 ERA in May up from 4.40 in April) is still a drag on the rotation (hopefully Madson mach II will replace him later this spring). Meanwhile, out of the bullpen Rheal Cormier, Arthur Rhodes, and Geoff Geary all have zero ERAs this month.

Keep in mind that the best that any Phillies team has ever done over a twenty-game stretch was 19-1 in 1977 (Aug 3 to 23). That team led by Schmidt, Luzinski, and Carlton went on to win the division. To match them, this team will have to sweep two .500 or better teams in the Brewers and Red Sox. Keep in mind that the Mets have to deal with the Cardinals and Yankees, however.

All this keeps reminding me of last season, and it worries me. You'll remember that the Nats surged out in front until they were passed by the Phils in 2005. Then the Braves left them both in the dust, as is their wont. Of course, these Mets are not the relocation-mad Nats of 2005 and these Phils should be in a better state than last year's model, which was reeling from the loss (or play) of Jim Thome early in the year.

Given all this, there's enough for even an old malcontent like me to be optimistic.

Comments
2006-05-15 20:42:31
1.   Yu-Hsing Chen
don't jinx it it man!!! :P seriously though great to see this team winning... you think Gavin Floyd's turn around is for real or just getting lucky? his pitch still looks very strait to me....
2006-05-16 06:03:38
2.   Mike Carminati
You never know with a rookie until he starts facing teams for the second and third times. They have to leave him in the rotation for a year and then assess at the end of the season no matter how that affects whatever playoff chances (unless he has a 6.00 ERA in August). This team needs to learn how to bite the bullet on young players. As long as they don't sign him to a long-term contract in the midst of a hot streak (a la Burrell).

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