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Hamels-tonians?
2006-05-11 21:46
by Mike Carminati

The weather, as if saving the drama for tomorrow night's highly anticipated Cole Hamels debut, mercifully ended tonight's rubber match between the Phils and Mets after just five innings with a 2-0 Phillies win. The Phils quietly take two of three from the Mets while being outscored 17-11, however.

The Cole Hamels era thus begins with the Phils trailing the Mets by an improbable three games, having won ten of eleven games.

On the break of such an auspicious media event, I thought it might be interesting to look at the best Phils debut seasons for pitchers all time. If Hamels does establish himself as the number one starter, not exactly a Herculean accomplishment given the competition, and continues to strike out at least a man an inning with sub 2.00 ERAs, will his 2006 season be the best debut for a Phillies pitcher ever?

Here are the best first seasons for a Phils pitcher based on Win Shares. Notice that I don't say rookie season, given that a player can retain rookie status for years if his major-league experience is limited. This investigation is just looking for players in a similar situation to Hamels:

PitcherYrWL ERA Win SharesPitchWSCareer WCareer LERACareer Win Shares Career PitchWS
Ed Daily18852623 2.21 3533.606670 3.39 113 69
Ben Sanders18881910 1.90 3530.408070 3.24 126 107
Pete Alexander19112813 2.57 3433.90373208 2.56 476 469
Tom Vickery18902422 3.44 2524.804242 3.75 38 37
Curt Davis19341917 2.95 2424.40158131 3.42 165 163
Wiley Piatt18982414 3.18 2119.808679 3.61 80 78
Tom Seaton19121612 3.28 1716.709365 3.14 89 87
Charley Schanz19441316 3.32 1615.902843 4.34 24 23
Doc White19011413 3.19 1615.00189156 2.39 235 216
Charlie Ferguson18842125 3.54 1610.509964 2.67 142 105
Eppa Rixey19121010 2.50 1413.50266251 3.15 315 311
Kid Gleason1888716 2.84 1313.00138131 3.79 294 149
Bubba Church195086 2.73 1312.903637 4.10 42 41
Ray Culp19631411 2.97 1312.50122101 3.58 98 97
Bruce Ruffin198694 2.46 1211.706082 4.19 76 75
Robin Roberts194879 3.19 1210.90286245 3.41 339 333
Dennis Bennett196299 3.81 1111.304347 3.69 44 45
Jack Meyer1955611 3.43 1110.602434 3.92 30 29
Ray Semproch19581311 3.92 1010.301921 4.42 13 13
Jack Kraus1943915 3.16 1010.201525 4.00 11 11
Bill Bernhard189966 2.65 1010.1011682 3.04 104 105
Art Mahaffey196073 2.31 109.905964 4.17 46 46
Bill Foxen190877 1.95 109.801620 2.56 20 18
Wayne LaMaster19371519 5.31 109.601927 5.82 11 10

This is everyone with at least 10 Win Shares in his first year. You might notice that the only man on the list who debuted in the last twenty years is Bruce "Roughed Up" Ruffin, whose best years came in the Rockie bullpen.

Though you hear the organization stating that Hamels is the best young arm the Phils have developed since Robin Roberts—thanks for the pressure guys—, the man to aim for is really Ray Culp. If Hamels can equal his numbers, the Philly faithless will be quite happy indeed. As for the dead ball-era and nineteenth century pitchers, it's very difficult to compare a pitcher from this era especially a young one who has had a history of injuries and will be handled gingerly, like Hamels, to pitchers from those eras. Hamels has very little chance of bettering Grover Cleveland Alexander's 28-win rookie year.

Given the dearth of recent players on the list, let's look at how some of the more notable ones debuted:

PitcherYrWL ERA WinSharesPitchWSCareer WCareer LERACareer Win Shares Career PitchWS
Robinson Tejeda200543 3.57 50.0043 3.57 5 -
Eude Brito200512 3.68 10.0012 3.68 1 -
Gavin Floyd200420 3.49 22.2032 6.63 -1 2
Ryan Madson200300 - 00.33158 3.25 15 9
Geoff Geary200300 4.50 00.2431 4.47 4 1
Carlos Silva200250 3.21 77.043117 3.84 40 26
Brett Myers200245 4.25 32.584233 4.47 29 15
Brandon Duckworth200132 3.52 5 1621 5.34 7 3
Dave Coggin200020 5.33 1 1012 4.52 8 2
Randy Wolf199969 5.55 43.706560 4.14 65 60
Carlton Loewer199878 6.09 11.101018 6.12 4 4
Wayne Gomes199751 5.27 22.203023 4.60 28 28
Calvin Maduro199601 3.52 10.901019 5.78 7 7
Rich Hunter199637 6.49 0 37 6.49 0
Matt Beech199614 6.97 00.00822 5.37 6 6
Mike Mimbs199597 4.15 87.901219 5.03 9 9
Mike Grace199511 3.18 11.001616 4.96 12 12
Dennis Springer199503 4.84 00.202448 5.18 21 21
Toby Borland199410 2.36 33.20119 4.17 16 16
Ricky Bottalico199400 - 00.403342 3.99 61 60
Kevin Foster199301 14.85 00.003230 4.86 25 22
Tyler Green199300 7.36 00.001825 5.16 13 12
Mike Williams199211 5.34 10.003254 4.45 57 55
Brad Brink199204 4.14 00.0004 3.56 1 1
Cliff Brantley199122 3.41 22.1048 4.25 3 3
Andy Ashby199115 6.00 00.0098110 4.12 85 86
Pat Combs198940 2.09 43.901717 4.22 13 13
Chuck McElroy198900 1.74 11.003830 3.90 56 54
Jason Grimsley198913 5.89 00.004156 4.76 46 47
Scott Service198800 1.69 10.502022 4.99 27 26
Wally Ritchie198732 3.75 55.0065 3.14 12 13
Todd Frohwirth198710 - 21.902019 3.60 35 35
Bruce Ruffin198694 2.46 1211.706082 4.19 76 75
Marvin Freeman198620 2.25 21.803528 4.64 35 35
Mike Jackson198600 3.38 10.806267 3.42 126 124
Mike Maddux198637 5.42 00.003937 4.05 55 54
Charles Hudson198388 3.35 99.405060 4.14 42 42
Kevin Gross198346 3.56 44.20142158 4.11 117 115
Don Carman198300 - 00.405354 4.11 44 44
Jerry Reed198101 7.71 00.002019 3.94 33 32
Bob Walk1980117 4.57 54.9010581 4.03 70 71
Marty Bystrom198050 1.50 54.802926 4.26 15 15
Mark Davis198000 2.57 00.505184 4.17 72 72
Dickie Noles197934 3.80 55.003653 4.56 33 32
Kevin Saucier197801 18.00 00.001511 3.31 21 21
Warren Brusstar197772 2.65 76.902816 3.51 33 34
Randy Lerch197500 6.43 00.006064 4.53 38 35
Tom Underwood197410 4.85 00.508687 3.89 83 83
Dick Ruthven197369 4.21 54.90123127 4.14 100 98
Larry Christenson197314 6.55 00.008371 3.79 77 74

Wow, that's a whole lot of pain, that is. Aside from Ruffin and Charlie Hudson, that's not much to crow about, and that's going back thirty-five years. Even when a pitcher had some career success (e.g., Jackson, Ashby, and Gross), very little of it was with the Phils.

One would be hard-pressed to find a worse track record than that. It doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence that the team will reverse this trend with Hamels, but I keep telling myself that this is why the team finally hired a real, life baseball man in Pat Gillick. He's developed pitching before. Hopefully, he can do it again with Hamels. Then I start worrying about his back, but I digress…

Comments
2006-05-12 22:48:10
1.   das411
Cole is 100 feet tall.

www.ColeHamelsFacts.com

2006-05-15 20:13:40
2.   bensdad00
While the rules proclude Cole from being credited with the win in his first start (no matter how much he deserved it) I present the following for your consideration.

Official Rule 10.19 (4) The winning relief pitcher shall be the one who is the pitcher of record when his team assumes the lead and maintains it to the finish of the game.

EXCEPTION: Do not credit a victory to a relief pitcher who is ineffective in a brief appearance, when a succeeding relief pitcher pitches effectively in helping his team maintain the lead. In such cases, credit the succeeding relief pitcher with the victory.

Ryan Madson (if he were wont to be bitter) could be described as either a vandal or a thief - defacing Cole's start out of jealousy from being bumped out of the rotation or stealing his victiory for similar reasons. However, per the rule and common sense, he did not have to be given the victory.
If you recall recent bitter history, this type of 'win' credited to Madson was an Uggie Urbina specialty last year - blowing late leads only to have the team come back in the 8th and ninth to bail him out of a loss and 'earn' him a win.
Official scorers use discretion all of the time in awarding errors - essentially saying 'hey fielder, you f***ed up'. Why don't they use the same discretion to upbraid pitchers when permitted?

2006-05-15 20:39:54
3.   Mike Carminati
That codicil of the rule has been employed, but it's left up to the official scorer and if you think they dread phone calls about error calls, how do you think they feel when they yank a win away from an ineffective reliever?

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